瘋狂與混亂成為了日常，而消費者和商業情緒則顯得陰鬱，待售標誌像麻疹一樣紛紛出現。
與此同時，股市的定價如同進入了極樂世界，參與者的多頭倉位達到了歷史最高水平。家庭和非營利組織在 2026 年開始時，近一半的金融資產以股票形式持有——這是有史以來的最高比例（自 1952 年以來見下圖）。
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://jugglingdynamite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/HH-and-non-profit-equities-as-percent-of-financial-assets.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://jugglingdynamite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/HH-and-non-profit-equities-as-percent-of-financial-assets.png"/>
專業基金經理的股票持倉和增長預期自 2021 年市場高點以來達到了最高水平（自 2001 年以來見下圖，感謝《每日快訊》）。
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://jugglingdynamite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Global-bullishness-since-2001.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://jugglingdynamite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Global-bullishness-since-2001.png"/>
與此同時，全球經理的下行保護對沖自 2021 年市場高點以來處於最低水平（自 2008 年以來見下圖）。
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://jugglingdynamite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Little-downside-protection-2026.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://jugglingdynamite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Little-downside-protection-2026.png"/>
基金經理的現金水平為 3.2%，是自 1999 年以來的最低記錄（見下圖）。熊市中乾粉充足；手頭現金從未如此之低。
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://jugglingdynamite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/cash-levels-at-record-low-2026.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://jugglingdynamite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/cash-levels-at-record-low-2026.png"/>
正如房地產投資者所發現的，當賣家希望/需要在高價位大量出售時，願意且能夠購買的買家寥寥無幾。春季上市預計今年會提前開始。BMO 經濟學家表示，房地產已進入向可負擔性 “緩慢磨合” 的階段：
<blockquote>
Andre Kutyan，Harvey Kalles 房地產公司的經紀人，去年秋天開始拍攝一些房屋的游泳池和景觀，以準備在新年初上市，屆時這些房屋可能仍被一層雪覆蓋。
他計劃在 1 月中旬開始推出新房源。
“我很好奇今年春季市場會多早開始，” 他説。
經紀人們也在關注二手市場上會有多少供應到來。
許多人聽到嬰兒潮一代的消息，他們一直希望價格回升而持有大型住宅，但現在決定繼續出售。
一些擁有高價物業的房主也選擇在經濟不確定性持續的情況下縮減投資。
“你只能等這麼久，” 他（BMO 經濟學家 Robert Kavcic）對賣家説。“等待也是有成本的。”
目前買家的態度似乎是一種反向的 FOMO，即 “錯失恐懼”，他説。
</blockquote>
這一切都是經典的。人類在財務問題上天生傾向於自我破壞，抵制羣體思維需要紀律和深思熟慮。耐心的現金持有者提前準備好購買目標時，機會就會到來。
投資者的情緒週期並沒有被打破，我們現在有表情符號來幫助表達它。
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://jugglingdynamite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Cycle-Emojis.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://jugglingdynamite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Cycle-Emojis.jpg"/>
<hr/>
更多來自此作者的文章：
瘋狂與混亂在一月繼續
對 2026 年的歡欣希望
關於税率的真相

投資者情緒週期依然明顯，儘管消費者和商業信心下降，但股市卻處於歷史高位。家庭幾乎將一半的金融資產投資於股票，基金經理的股票持倉比例自 2021 年以來達到最高水平。現金水平處於歷史低位，表明缺乏下行保護。預計房地產掛牌數量將上升，因為包括嬰兒潮一代在內的賣家決定在經濟不確定性中出售房產。買家則表現出一種逆向的錯失恐懼，為那些有現金進行戰略性投資的人提供了機會

Madness and mayhem are the order of the day, while consumer and business sentiment are dour, and for-sale signs are popping up like measles.
<div class="lb-trans">瘋狂與混亂成為了日常，而消費者和商業情緒則顯得陰鬱，待售標誌像麻疹一樣紛紛出現。
</div>Meanwhile, equity markets are priced for nirvana, and participants are the most long of all time. Households and nonprofit organizations entered 2026 with a record near half of their financial assets held in equities—the most ever (shown below since 1952).
<div class="lb-trans">與此同時，股市的定價如同進入了極樂世界，參與者的多頭倉位達到了歷史最高水平。家庭和非營利組織在 2026 年開始時，近一半的金融資產以股票形式持有——這是有史以來的最高比例（自 1952 年以來見下圖）。
</div><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://jugglingdynamite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/HH-and-non-profit-equities-as-percent-of-financial-assets.png" alt="" original-src="https://jugglingdynamite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/HH-and-non-profit-equities-as-percent-of-financial-assets.png"/>
Professional fund managers are positioned with the highest equity exposure and growth expectations since the market top in 2021 (shown below since 2001, courtesy of The Daily Shot).
<div class="lb-trans">專業基金經理的股票持倉和增長預期自 2021 年市場高點以來達到了最高水平（自 2001 年以來見下圖，感謝《每日快訊》）。
</div><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://jugglingdynamite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Global-bullishness-since-2001.png" alt="" original-src="https://jugglingdynamite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Global-bullishness-since-2001.png"/>
At the same time, global managers are holding the least downside protection hedges since the 2021 market top (below since 2008).
<div class="lb-trans">與此同時，全球經理的下行保護對沖自 2021 年市場高點以來處於最低水平（自 2008 年以來見下圖）。
</div><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://jugglingdynamite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Little-downside-protection-2026.png" alt="" original-src="https://jugglingdynamite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Little-downside-protection-2026.png"/>
Fund manager cash levels at 3.2% are the lowest on record since at least 1999 (shown below). The bear market is in dry powder; cash on hand has never been so low.
<div class="lb-trans">基金經理的現金水平為 3.2%，是自 1999 年以來的最低記錄（見下圖）。熊市中乾粉充足；手頭現金從未如此之低。
</div><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://jugglingdynamite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/cash-levels-at-record-low-2026.png" alt="" original-src="https://jugglingdynamite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/cash-levels-at-record-low-2026.png"/>
As real estate investors have been discovering, when sellers wish/need to sell en masse at high prices, there are few willing and able buyers to be found. Spring listings are looking to start early this year. See, BMO economist says real estate has entered a ‘slow grind’ toward affordability:
<div class="lb-trans">正如房地產投資者所發現的，當賣家希望/需要在高價位大量出售時，願意且能夠購買的買家寥寥無幾。春季上市預計今年會提前開始。BMO 經濟學家表示，房地產已進入向可負擔性 “緩慢磨合” 的階段：
</div><blockquote>
Andre Kutyan, broker with Harvey Kalles Real Estate, began photographing the pools and landscaping of some houses last fall in preparation for hitting the market early in the New Year, when they may still be buried under a layer of snow.
He plans to start launching new listings in mid-January.
“I’m curious to see how early the spring market will start this year,” he says.
Agents are also watching to see how much supply arrives on the resale market.
Many are hearing from baby boomers who have been holding onto their large homes with hopes of a recovery in prices, but have now decided to move ahead with a sale.
Some homeowners with high-priced properties are also choosing to downsize their investment as economic uncertainty continues.
“You can only wait so long,” he [BMO economist, Robert Kavcic] says of the sellers. “There’s a cost to waiting, too.”
The attitude among buyers at the moment appears to be a reverse FOMO, or “fear of missing out,” he says.
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
Andre Kutyan，Harvey Kalles 房地產公司的經紀人，去年秋天開始拍攝一些房屋的游泳池和景觀，以準備在新年初上市，屆時這些房屋可能仍被一層雪覆蓋。
他計劃在 1 月中旬開始推出新房源。
“我很好奇今年春季市場會多早開始，” 他説。
經紀人們也在關注二手市場上會有多少供應到來。
許多人聽到嬰兒潮一代的消息，他們一直希望價格回升而持有大型住宅，但現在決定繼續出售。
一些擁有高價物業的房主也選擇在經濟不確定性持續的情況下縮減投資。
“你只能等這麼久，” 他（BMO 經濟學家 Robert Kavcic）對賣家説。“等待也是有成本的。”
目前買家的態度似乎是一種反向的 FOMO，即 “錯失恐懼”，他説。
</blockquote>
</div>This is all classic. Humans are wired to self-sabotage in financial matters, and it takes discipline and forethought to resist groupthink. Opportunity arrives for patient buyers holding cash who’ve prepared their buy targets in advance.
<div class="lb-trans">這一切都是經典的。人類在財務問題上天生傾向於自我破壞，抵制羣體思維需要紀律和深思熟慮。耐心的現金持有者提前準備好購買目標時，機會就會到來。
</div>The investor emotional cycle has not been repealed, and we now have emojis to help express it.
<div class="lb-trans">投資者的情緒週期並沒有被打破，我們現在有表情符號來幫助表達它。
</div><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://jugglingdynamite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Cycle-Emojis.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://jugglingdynamite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Cycle-Emojis.jpg"/>
<hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div>More By This Author:
<div class="lb-trans">更多來自此作者的文章：
</div>Madness And Mayhem Continues In January
<div class="lb-trans">瘋狂與混亂在一月繼續
</div>Jubilant Hopes For 2026
<div class="lb-trans">對 2026 年的歡欣希望
</div>The Truth About Tax Rates
<div class="lb-trans">關於税率的真相
</div>

投資者情緒週期依然存在且活躍