<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2017/03/27/21/31/money-2180330_960_720.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2017/03/27/21/31/money-2180330_960_720.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>圖片來源：Pixabay</em></p>
<p>我想和你談談今天白銀市場發生的事情。</p>
<p>正如你所知道的，白銀價格已經呈現出拋物線走勢，從十月底的每盎司 45 美元上漲到今天的每盎司超過 85 美元。在此期間，這種貴金屬僅有兩天出現了顯著的下跌！</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://gainspainscapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-2.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://gainspainscapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-2.png"/></p>
<p>顯然，這一波漲勢有多種基本面原因。正如我所提到的，目前的宏觀背景對風險資產，特別是通脹對沖資產，極其看漲。</p>
<p>簡單回顧一下…</p>
<p>1）經濟持續增長，税收收入（無法偽造）、零售銷售（同比增長 7%）等都證明了這一點。確實，這一增長主要是由前 10% 的消費者推動的，但總體來看，經濟在增長。</p>
<p>2）企業利潤令人驚訝……向上。2025 年第三季度每股收益增長達 11%，這是連續第四個季度實現雙位數的每股收益增長。</p>
<p>3）特朗普政府希望利率儘可能低。為此，六個月內總統將有效控制美聯儲。</p>
<ul>
<li>總統已經任命了七名理事會成員中的三名。如果莉莎·庫克被迫辭職，這個數字將增加到四名（即多數）。</li>
<li>總統將在 2026 年 5 月之前（如果傑羅姆·鮑威爾被迫離職，可能更早）任命一位新選的美聯儲主席。</li>
<li>總統及其核心團隊暗示，利率應儘快降至 1% 或更低。</li>
</ul>
<p>然而，白銀價格的波動超出了宏觀基本面。事實上，白銀似乎在某種程度上正在 “撼動” 金融系統。</p>
<p>這將變得有些技術性，請耐心聽我講一會兒。</p>
<h3><strong>白銀期貨交易是如何運作的</strong></h3>
<p>大部分白銀交易發生在期貨市場。期貨市場由集中交易所組成，在這些交易所中，合同被交易以在未來某個日期以預定價格買賣實物商品。最受歡迎的交易所是芝加哥商品交易所（CME）。</p>
<p>簡單來説，白銀期貨代表了一種對白銀進行投機的方式，給予交易者/生產者在未來以特定價格買賣白銀的選擇權（因此得名期貨）。具體來説，每份白銀期貨合同代表有權買賣 5000 盎司白銀。</p>
<p>現在，期貨合同每兩個月到期一次（1 月、3 月、5 月、7 月、9 月和 12 月）。如果一個人持有白銀期貨合同而在到期前沒有賣出合同（或將其滾動到到期更晚的合同），<strong>他或她將獲得每份合同對應的 5000 盎司實際的實物白銀。</strong></p>
<p>當前的白銀合同將於 2026 年 3 月 27 日到期。實物白銀的最後交割日是 3 月 31 日。</p>
<p>在我寫這篇文章時，CME 上白銀的當前未平倉合約為 150,200 份。每份合同代表有權買賣 5000 盎司白銀，這意味着當前白銀的未平倉合約代表着 7.51 億盎司的白銀。</p>
<p>問題在於，根據 CME 的登記，<strong>其倉庫中僅有 4.4 億盎司的白銀。</strong></p>
<p>換句話説，CME 在各種倉庫中存儲的實際白銀數量是市場上交易的白銀數量的 1.7 倍。因此，許多這些合同實際上是沒有任何實物支持的。</p>
<p>這就是事情變得棘手的地方。</p>
<p>如果當前白銀未平倉合約中的一部分選擇實物交割，<strong>CME 可能面臨潛在的系統性問題。</strong> 畢竟，你如何解釋讓人們對一個根本不存在的資產進行投機呢？在這種情況下，CME 與加密貨幣並無二致！</p>
<p>這就是白銀價格飆升的原因。金融系統開始嗅到 CME 的 “水中有血”。</p>
<p>CME 試圖通過提高白銀的保證金要求來應對這一情況。當交易者購買白銀合同時，他們必須提供抵押品來支持交易。通過提高保證金要求，CME 實際上是在迫使交易者提供更多資金來支持他們的交易（諷刺的是，正是 CME 沒有實際資產來支持其期貨合同）！在最近的加息中，CME 在 2025 年 12 月 29 日將白銀保證金提高了約 13%。幾天後，即 2025 年 12 月 31 日，又提高了超過 30%。</p>
<p>儘管這些保證金提高，白銀價格仍然持續飆升。這種貴金屬已經突破了三角形形態，漲至每盎司 87.50 美元。白銀期貨合同的價格甚至更高，達到每盎司 91 美元。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://gainspainscapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-2.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://gainspainscapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-2.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>白銀正成為系統性風險</strong></h3>
<p>這是一個重大問題。當多次干預/提高保證金未能阻止資產升值時，顯然 CME 正在失去控制。這可能會成為一個系統性問題。</p>
<p>你看，CME 不僅交易白銀期貨，還交易從債券到股票、商品等各種資產。CME 合約的平均每日名義價值為 11 萬億美元，年交易量超過 1 千萬億美元（1,000 萬億）！</p>
<p>所以……如果 CME 允許沒有實際資產支持的交易……那麼交易者在意識到即使嘗試也無法交割他們交易的物品時，CME 就會面臨崩潰的風險。</p>
<p>難怪控制 CME 期貨市場的 CME 集團在股票牛市中沒有參與。相反，CME 的股票在過去 12 個月中一直橫盤交易！</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://gainspainscapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://gainspainscapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-3.png"/></p>
<p>這一情況如何發展還有待觀察，但我想提醒你，目前金融體系的一個主要支柱（期貨市場）正開始出現裂痕。我會在這一情況發展時進行跟蹤，但這可能帶來系統性風險，情況可能會變得糟糕。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>日本即將破產……美國會是下一個嗎？</p>
<p>日本即將破產……美國會是下一個嗎？</p>
<p>“保持高温” 意味着全球大牛市才剛剛開始</p>

<p>銀價已從每盎司 45 美元飆升至超過 85 美元，受到樂觀的宏觀經濟背景和企業利潤上升的推動。然而，白銀期貨市場面臨系統性風險，因為 751 百萬盎司的未平倉合約超過了 CME 的實物白銀供應量 440 百萬盎司。這一差異引發了對期貨合約可行性的擔憂，促使 CME 提高保證金要求。儘管採取了這些措施，銀價仍在繼續上漲，表明金融系統可能存在不穩定性</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2017/03/27/21/31/money-2180330_960_720.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2017/03/27/21/31/money-2180330_960_720.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Pixabay</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>圖片來源：Pixabay</em></p>
</div><p>I want to talk to you about what is happening with silver today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我想和你談談今天白銀市場發生的事情。</p>
</div><p>As you no doubt are aware, silver has gone parabolic, rising from $45 per ounce at the end of October to over $85 per ounce today. Throughout that period, the precious metal has had only two significant down days!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如你所知道的，白銀價格已經呈現出拋物線走勢，從十月底的每盎司 45 美元上漲到今天的每盎司超過 85 美元。在此期間，這種貴金屬僅有兩天出現了顯著的下跌！</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://gainspainscapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-2.png" alt="" original-src="https://gainspainscapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-2.png"/></p>
<p>Now, obviously there are multiple fundamental reasons for this move. As I’ve noted, the current macro backdrop is EXTREMELY bullish for risk assets, specifically inflation hedges.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>顯然，這一波漲勢有多種基本面原因。正如我所提到的，目前的宏觀背景對風險資產，特別是通脹對沖資產，極其看漲。</p>
</div><p>By quick way of review…</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>簡單回顧一下…</p>
</div><ol>
<li>The economy continues to grow as evinced by tax receipts (which cannot be faked), retail sales (7% growth year over year), and more. True, much of this growth is being driven by the top 10% of consumers, but in the aggregate, the economy is growing.</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1）經濟持續增長，税收收入（無法偽造）、零售銷售（同比增長 7%）等都證明了這一點。確實，這一增長主要是由前 10% 的消費者推動的，但總體來看，經濟在增長。</p>
</div><ol>
<li>Corporate profits are surprising… to the upside. 3Q25 EPS growth clocked in at 11%, representing the fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit EPS growth.</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2）企業利潤令人驚訝……向上。2025 年第三季度每股收益增長達 11%，這是連續第四個季度實現雙位數的每股收益增長。</p>
</div><ol>
<li>The Trump administration wants interest rates as low as possible. To that end, within six months the President will effectively control the Fed.</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>3）特朗普政府希望利率儘可能低。為此，六個月內總統將有效控制美聯儲。</p>
</div><ul>
<li>The President has already appointed three of the seven members of the Board of Governors. If Lisa Cook is forced to resign, that number will jump to four (a majority).</li>
<li>The President will have a new handpicked Fed Chair by May 2026 (if not sooner depending on whether or not Jerome Powell is forced out).</li>
<li>The President and his inner circle have suggested that rates should drop to 1% if not lower as soon as possible.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>總統已經任命了七名理事會成員中的三名。如果莉莎·庫克被迫辭職，這個數字將增加到四名（即多數）。</li>
<li>總統將在 2026 年 5 月之前（如果傑羅姆·鮑威爾被迫離職，可能更早）任命一位新選的美聯儲主席。</li>
<li>總統及其核心團隊暗示，利率應儘快降至 1% 或更低。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>However, the price move in silver is beyond macro fundamentals. In fact, it appears silver might be “breaking” the financial system to a degree.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，白銀價格的波動超出了宏觀基本面。事實上，白銀似乎在某種程度上正在 “撼動” 金融系統。</p>
</div><p>This is going to get a bit technical so bear with me for a bit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這將變得有些技術性，請耐心聽我講一會兒。</p>
</div><h3><strong>How Silver Futures Trading Works</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>白銀期貨交易是如何運作的</strong></h3>
</div><p>The bulk of silver trading takes place on the futures market. The futures market consists of centralized exchanges where contracts are traded to buy or sell physical commodities at a predetermined price on a future date. The most popular exchange is the Chicago Mercantile Exchange or CME.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大部分白銀交易發生在期貨市場。期貨市場由集中交易所組成，在這些交易所中，合同被交易以在未來某個日期以預定價格買賣實物商品。最受歡迎的交易所是芝加哥商品交易所（CME）。</p>
</div><p>Put simply, silver futures represent a means of betting on silver by giving traders/ producers the option to buy or sell silver at a particular price in the future (hence the name futures).Specifically, every silver futures contract represents the right to buy or sell 5,000 ounces of silver.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>簡單來説，白銀期貨代表了一種對白銀進行投機的方式，給予交易者/生產者在未來以特定價格買賣白銀的選擇權（因此得名期貨）。具體來説，每份白銀期貨合同代表有權買賣 5000 盎司白銀。</p>
</div><p>Now, futures contracts expire every two months in the calendar year (January, March, May, July, September, and December). If a person who goes long a silver futures contract does NOT sell the contract prior to its expiration (or roll it over to a contract expiring at a later date), <strong>he or she will receive 5,000 ounces of actual physical silver for every contract he or she owns.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在，期貨合同每兩個月到期一次（1 月、3 月、5 月、7 月、9 月和 12 月）。如果一個人持有白銀期貨合同而在到期前沒有賣出合同（或將其滾動到到期更晚的合同），<strong>他或她將獲得每份合同對應的 5000 盎司實際的實物白銀。</strong></p>
</div><p>The current silver contract expires on March 27th 2026. And the last delivery day for physical silver is March 31st.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當前的白銀合同將於 2026 年 3 月 27 日到期。實物白銀的最後交割日是 3 月 31 日。</p>
</div><p>As I write this, the current open interest for silver on the CME is 150,200 contracts. With each contract representing the right to buy or sell 5,000 ounces of silver, this means that the current open interest for silver represents 751 million ounces of silver.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我寫這篇文章時，CME 上白銀的當前未平倉合約為 150,200 份。每份合同代表有權買賣 5000 盎司白銀，這意味着當前白銀的未平倉合約代表着 7.51 億盎司的白銀。</p>
</div><p>The problem with all of this is that according to the CME’s registry t <strong>here are 440 million ounces of silver located in its depositories.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>問題在於，根據 CME 的登記，<strong>其倉庫中僅有 4.4 億盎司的白銀。</strong></p>
</div><p>Put another way, there is 1.7 TIMES the amount of actual silver the CME has stored in various depositories trading in the open market. So many of these contracts are in fact backed by NOTHING.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>換句話説，CME 在各種倉庫中存儲的實際白銀數量是市場上交易的白銀數量的 1.7 倍。因此，許多這些合同實際上是沒有任何實物支持的。</p>
</div><p>This is where things get dodgy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這就是事情變得棘手的地方。</p>
</div><p>If a significant portion of the current open positions in silver opt for physical delivery, <strong>there is a chance the CME would face a potentially systemic issue.</strong> After all, how do you explain that you were letting people bet on an asset that wasn’t actually there to begin with? In this context, the CME is no different from a crypto currency!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果當前白銀未平倉合約中的一部分選擇實物交割，<strong>CME 可能面臨潛在的系統性問題。</strong> 畢竟，你如何解釋讓人們對一個根本不存在的資產進行投機呢？在這種情況下，CME 與加密貨幣並無二致！</p>
</div><p>This is why silver prices are going parabolic. The financial system is beginning to smell the proverbial “blood in the water” for the CME.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這就是白銀價格飆升的原因。金融系統開始嗅到 CME 的 “水中有血”。</p>
</div><p>The CME is trying to deal with this by hiking margin requirements on silver. When a trader buys silver contracts, he or she has to post collateral to backstop the trade. By hiking margin requirements, the CME is effectively forcing the trader to post more money to backstop his or her trades (ironic since it is the CME that doesn’t actually have assets backstopping its futures contracts)! In terms of recent hikes, on December 29, 2025, the CME raised silver margins by approximately 13%. It hikes them by over 30% a few days later on December 31, 2025,.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CME 試圖通過提高白銀的保證金要求來應對這一情況。當交易者購買白銀合同時，他們必須提供抵押品來支持交易。通過提高保證金要求，CME 實際上是在迫使交易者提供更多資金來支持他們的交易（諷刺的是，正是 CME 沒有實際資產來支持其期貨合同）！在最近的加息中，CME 在 2025 年 12 月 29 日將白銀保證金提高了約 13%。幾天後，即 2025 年 12 月 31 日，又提高了超過 30%。</p>
</div><p>Despite these margin hikes, silver prices continue to soar. The precious metal has broken out of a triangle formation to the upside, rising to $87.50 per ounce. The silver futures contract is even higher at $91 per ounce.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管這些保證金提高，白銀價格仍然持續飆升。這種貴金屬已經突破了三角形形態，漲至每盎司 87.50 美元。白銀期貨合同的價格甚至更高，達到每盎司 91 美元。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://gainspainscapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-2.png" alt="" original-src="https://gainspainscapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-2.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>Silver is Becoming a Systemic Risk</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>白銀正成為系統性風險</strong></h3>
</div><p>This is a MAJOR deal. When MULTIPLE interventions/ margin hikes don’t stop an asset from rising in value, it is clear the CME is losing control. And it has the potential to become a SYSTEMIC issue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這是一個重大問題。當多次干預/提高保證金未能阻止資產升值時，顯然 CME 正在失去控制。這可能會成為一個系統性問題。</p>
</div><p>You see, the CME doesn’t just trade silver futures, it trades everything from bonds to stocks to commodities and more. The average daily notional value of CME contracts traded is $11 TRILLION, with the annual trading volume exceeding $1 QUADRILLION (1,000 trillions)!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你看，CME 不僅交易白銀期貨，還交易從債券到股票、商品等各種資產。CME 合約的平均每日名義價值為 11 萬億美元，年交易量超過 1 千萬億美元（1,000 萬億）！</p>
</div><p>So… if it turns out the CME is permitting trades WITHOUT actual assets backstopping them… then the door opens to a collapse in the CME as traders panic realizing that they couldn’t take delivery of the items they’re trading even if they tried.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所以……如果 CME 允許沒有實際資產支持的交易……那麼交易者在意識到即使嘗試也無法交割他們交易的物品時，CME 就會面臨崩潰的風險。</p>
</div><p>Small wonder then that the CME Group which controls the CME futures markets has NOT participated in the bull market in stocks. Instead, CME shares have traded sideways for 12 months!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>難怪控制 CME 期貨市場的 CME 集團在股票牛市中沒有參與。相反，CME 的股票在過去 12 個月中一直橫盤交易！</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://gainspainscapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-3.png" alt="" original-src="https://gainspainscapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-3.png"/></p>
<p>How this plays out remains to be seen, but I wanted to warn you that one of the main pillars of the current financial system (the futures markets) is beginning to crack. I’ll be tracking this situation as it develops, but there is a potential systemic risk that could make things ugly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一情況如何發展還有待觀察，但我想提醒你，目前金融體系的一個主要支柱（期貨市場）正開始出現裂痕。我會在這一情況發展時進行跟蹤，但這可能帶來系統性風險，情況可能會變得糟糕。</p>
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</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>Japan Is About To Go Bust… Is The U.S. Next?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本即將破產……美國會是下一個嗎？</p>
</div><p>Japan Is About To Go Bust… Is The US Next?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本即將破產……美國會是下一個嗎？</p>
</div><p>“Run It Hot” Means The Great Global Melt-Up Is Just Getting Started</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“保持高温” 意味着全球大牛市才剛剛開始</p>
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白銀正逐漸成為一種系統性風險