<p>作者：Myra P. Saefong</p>
<p>消費者暫時不必擔心三天內價格飆升 62% 的問題</p>
<p>美國消費者可能暫時不必擔心天然氣價格的突然上漲。</p>
<p>預計將影響到 2.3 億人的北極寒流可能導致天然氣供應短缺，因為家庭會調高暖氣温度。</p>
<p>然而，消費者可以暫時鬆一口氣，因為儲存中的供應和公用事業公司的對沖措施似乎能夠為週二至週四之間上漲約 62% 的天然氣期貨提供緩衝。</p>
<p>“從歷史上看，天然氣是商品市場中的野獸，” 瑞穗證券美國公司能源期貨主管 Robert Yawger 表示。“人們認為我們在過去幾周從白銀中獲得了一些相當大的數字，但這個天然氣市場可以迅速大幅波動。”</p>
<p>閲讀：隨着氣温下降，天然氣價格飆升。這可能是十年來市場面臨的最嚴峻考驗。</p>
<p>據道瓊斯市場數據，天然氣（NGG26）2 月份交割的價格在週四收於每百萬英熱單位 5.045 美元，較前一日上漲 3.5%，為自 12 月 5 日以來的最高點。僅在週三，價格就上漲了近 25%。</p>
<p>週三天然氣期貨的飆升可以説是 “輕描淡寫，因為價格的漲幅具有歷史意義，” Sevens Report Research 的聯合編輯 Tyler Richey 在週四的通訊中表示。“天然氣顯然處於一個受天氣驅動的市場動態中，基本需求推動價格波動，未來可能會有更極端的變動，具體取決於預測的進一步修正。”</p>
<p>這一商品的漲幅延續到週四，價格交易高達 5.65 美元，為 2022 年 12 月 22 日以來的最高日內水平，隨後大部分漲幅回落。</p>
<p>隨着天氣頻道在週四警告稱，預計將有一場 “重大、廣泛、持久” 的冬季風暴從週五到週一襲擊南部、中西部和東北部部分地區，可能會給從新墨西哥州和德克薩斯州到新英格蘭部分地區的數百萬人帶來破壞性的冰雪。</p>
<p>預測顯示，紐約市地區將有多天的夜間低温將降至個位數，Yawger 表示，10 天預測中最冷的一天看起來是最後一天，夜間低温為 3 度。</p>
<p>“這看起來不會很快消失。人們將在接下來的兩週內頻繁使用暖氣，” 他説。這將對儲存中的天然氣供應造成 “巨大消耗”。</p>
<p>這場 “深度北極波” 天氣預計將覆蓋美國大約 50% 的地區，涉及多達 30 個州，因此這是一場不會很快離開的重大風暴，Yawger 表示。</p>
<p>閲讀：即將來襲的冬季風暴為何可能對飛行特別危險</p>
<p>消費者的平靜</p>
<p>目前，全國各地的天然氣消費者可能不會看到價格上漲帶來的顯著影響，因為公用事業公司通常會為這樣的天氣事件做好財務準備。</p>
<p>“公用事業公司會提前購買天然氣，從而減少對交易波動的暴露。” Beth Sewell，Quantum Gas &amp; Power Services。</p>
<p>“公用事業公司會提前購買天然氣，從而減少對交易波動的暴露，” Quantum Gas &amp; Power Services 的總裁兼首席執行官 Beth Sewell 表示，該公司提供能源管理、採購和諮詢服務。</p>
<p>鑑於此，她認為天然氣價格的上漲 “更多是交易者因市場波動而感到興奮，認為這是一個賺錢的機會，而不是對零售客户的實際長期影響。”</p>
<p>Sewell 的公司支持零售營銷商——這些營銷商為客户購買、銷售和管理天然氣供應——總體而言，這並沒有對他們產生太大影響，因為他們大部分的天然氣需求已經在本月內購買，許多公司還有儲存資產可以在這樣的時期滿足需求，她説。</p>
<p>大多數住宅客户通過對沖活動和受監管的費率結構來保護自己免受公用事業公司成本上漲的影響，Catalyst Energy Infrastructure Fund MLXAX 的聯合投資組合經理 Henry Hoffman 表示。這可以幫助控制消費者的月賬單。</p>
<p>然而，劇烈的價格飆升仍然可能 “給對沖不足的公用事業公司施加壓力，可能導致收益波動或成本回收延遲，” 他説。</p>
<p>“巨量” 供應下降</p>
<p>儘管如此，目前發生的事情可能會對夏季製冷季節和下一個冬季的天然氣供應狀況產生重大影響。</p>
<p>天然氣市場上有關於將會出現 “巨量” 供應提取的猜測——可能在兩週內，一些市場預測顯示可能會出現超過 3500 億立方英尺的提取，瑞穗的 Yawger 表示。</p>
<p>如果這一情況實現，“這將是有史以來第二大儲存提取，” 他説，並補充説，能源信息管理局的儲存報告歷史上僅有四次提取超過 3000 億立方英尺。</p>
<p>截至 1 月 16 日的一週，EIA 報告稱美國天然氣儲存量下降了 120 億立方英尺，降至 3.065 萬億立方英尺。儲存量仍然高於去年同期水平和五年平均水平，數據顯示。</p>
<p>目前庫存水平並不令人擔憂，但如果寒冷持續，“庫存可能會迅速收緊，即使從一個舒適的起點出發，” Catalyst Energy Infrastructure Fund 的 Hoffman 表示。</p>
<p>更令人擔憂的是，極端天氣可能導致接下來的四周庫存減少總計約 850 億立方英尺，Gabelli Funds 的投資組合經理 Simon Wong 表示。同時，他提到，“凍結停產” 是指由於寒冷天氣和冰凍導致的生產減緩，這可能會減少阿巴拉契亞、巴肯、南中部和二疊紀地區的產量。</p>
<p>以這種速度，3 月份的天然氣庫存可能會達到約 1.65 萬億立方英尺，這將比五年平均水平低 10%；而夏季結束時的庫存可能會達到約 3.68 萬億立方英尺，或比五年平均水平低 2%，Wong 表示。</p>
<p>這將導致到 2026 年冬季末及 2027 年初市場出現 “顯著的赤字”，Wong 表示。</p>
<p>他説，屆時生產必須至少每天增長 40 億立方英尺。如果不這樣做，2026 至 2027 年冬季的期貨合約價格可能會進一步上漲。</p>
<p>-Myra P. Saefong</p>
<p>該內容由 MarketWatch 創作，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞通訊和《華爾街日報》獨立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道瓊斯新聞通訊</p>
<p>01-22-26 1612ET</p>

2 倍做多彭博天然氣 ETF - ProShares

美國近 12 月期天然氣 ETF

2 倍做空彭博天然氣 ETF - ProShares

美國天然氣 ETF

天然氣股指數 ETF - First Trust

<p>天然氣價格因即將來臨的冬季風暴而飆升了 62%，該風暴將影響美國 2.3 億人。儘管價格上漲，消費者可能不會立即感受到取暖費用的影響，因為公用事業公司已對價格波動進行了對沖。2 月份的交付價格定在每百萬 BTU 5.045 美元，預測顯示儲存將出現顯著的提取。專家警告，雖然當前的價格上漲可能不會直接影響消費者，但可能會影響即將到來的夏季和下一個冬季的供應水平</p>

<p>By Myra P. Saefong</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Myra P. Saefong</p>
</div><p>Consumers don't yet have to worry about the three-session 62% spike in prices</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>消費者暫時不必擔心三天內價格飆升 62% 的問題</p>
</div><p>U.S. consumers might not have to worry just yet about the sudden rise in natural-gas prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國消費者可能暫時不必擔心天然氣價格的突然上漲。</p>
</div><p>The arctic blast that's expected to affect 230 million people across the United States could lead to a potential shortage in natural-gas supplies as households turn up their thermostats.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>預計將影響到 2.3 億人的北極寒流可能導致天然氣供應短缺，因為家庭會調高暖氣温度。</p>
</div><p>Consumers, however, can breathe a sign of relief - for now - as supplies in storage and hedging by utilities look to provide a buffer from a surge in natural-gas futures that climbed by roughly 62% between Tuesday and Thursday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，消費者可以暫時鬆一口氣，因為儲存中的供應和公用事業公司的對沖措施似乎能夠為週二至週四之間上漲約 62% 的天然氣期貨提供緩衝。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Natural gas, historically speaking, is the wild animal of the commodities space,&#34; said Robert Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho Securities USA. &#34;People thought we were getting some pretty big numbers out of silver here in the last couple of weeks, but this natural-gas market can go really far, really fast.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“從歷史上看，天然氣是商品市場中的野獸，” 瑞穗證券美國公司能源期貨主管 Robert Yawger 表示。“人們認為我們在過去幾周從白銀中獲得了一些相當大的數字，但這個天然氣市場可以迅速大幅波動。”</p>
</div><p>Read: Natural-gas prices soar as temperatures drop. It could be the toughest test for the markets in a decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>閲讀：隨着氣温下降，天然氣價格飆升。這可能是十年來市場面臨的最嚴峻考驗。</p>
</div><p>By all accounts, prices already have. Natural gas for February delivery (NGG26) settled at $5.045 per million British thermal units on Thursday, edging up by 3.5% to finish at the highest since Dec. 5, according to Dow Jones Market Data. On Wednesday alone, prices jumped nearly 25%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>據道瓊斯市場數據，天然氣（NGG26）2 月份交割的價格在週四收於每百萬英熱單位 5.045 美元，較前一日上漲 3.5%，為自 12 月 5 日以來的最高點。僅在週三，價格就上漲了近 25%。</p>
</div><p>To say that natural-gas futures surged on Wednesday would be &#34;an understatement as prices posted a gain of historic magnitude,&#34; said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, in Thursday's newsletter. &#34;Natural gas is clearly in a weather-driven market dynamic with fundamental demand driving the price action with the potential for more extreme moves pending further revisions to the forecast.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週三天然氣期貨的飆升可以説是 “輕描淡寫，因為價格的漲幅具有歷史意義，” Sevens Report Research 的聯合編輯 Tyler Richey 在週四的通訊中表示。“天然氣顯然處於一個受天氣驅動的市場動態中，基本需求推動價格波動，未來可能會有更極端的變動，具體取決於預測的進一步修正。”</p>
</div><p>The gains for the commodity extended into Thursday, with prices trading as high $5.65, the highest intraday level since Dec. 22, 2022, before paring much of that rise.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一商品的漲幅延續到週四，價格交易高達 5.65 美元，為 2022 年 12 月 22 日以來的最高日內水平，隨後大部分漲幅回落。</p>
</div><p>The recent price increases have come as the Weather Channel warned Thursday of that a &#34;major, widespread, long-lasting&#34; winter storm is expected to hit parts of the South, Midwest and Northeast from Friday through Monday, with &#34;potentially damaging ice and heavy snow for million from New Mexico and Texas to parts of New England.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着天氣頻道在週四警告稱，預計將有一場 “重大、廣泛、持久” 的冬季風暴從週五到週一襲擊南部、中西部和東北部部分地區，可能會給從新墨西哥州和德克薩斯州到新英格蘭部分地區的數百萬人帶來破壞性的冰雪。</p>
</div><p>Forecasts call for multiple days in the New York City area where the overnight low temperatures are going to be in the single digits, said Yawger, adding that the coldest day of all looks to be the last day on the 10-day forecast, with an overnight low of 3 degrees.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>預測顯示，紐約市地區將有多天的夜間低温將降至個位數，Yawger 表示，10 天預測中最冷的一天看起來是最後一天，夜間低温為 3 度。</p>
</div><p>&#34;That doesn't look like it'll go away anytime soon. People are going to be heavy on the thermostat for a good two weeks,&#34; he said. That's going to create a &#34;draw big&#34; on natural-gas supplies in storage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“這看起來不會很快消失。人們將在接下來的兩週內頻繁使用暖氣，” 他説。這將對儲存中的天然氣供應造成 “巨大消耗”。</p>
</div><p>This &#34;deep-dive arctic wave&#34; of weather is expected to envelop basically 50% of the U.S. - as many as 30 states, so it's a big storm that's not leaving soon, said Yawger.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這場 “深度北極波” 天氣預計將覆蓋美國大約 50% 的地區，涉及多達 30 個州，因此這是一場不會很快離開的重大風暴，Yawger 表示。</p>
</div><p>Read: Why the winter storm that's about to hit could be especially treacherous for flying</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>閲讀：即將來襲的冬季風暴為何可能對飛行特別危險</p>
</div><p>Consumer calm</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>消費者的平靜</p>
</div><p>For now, natural-gas consumers across the country might not see any significant effects from the price increases since utilities tend to prepare financially for weather events like these.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，全國各地的天然氣消費者可能不會看到價格上漲帶來的顯著影響，因為公用事業公司通常會為這樣的天氣事件做好財務準備。</p>
</div><p>'Utilities buy their gas well ahead of any weather events, thus reducing exposure to trading volatility.'Beth Sewell, Quantum Gas &amp; Power Services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“公用事業公司會提前購買天然氣，從而減少對交易波動的暴露。” Beth Sewell，Quantum Gas &amp; Power Services。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Utilities buy their gas well ahead of any weather events, thus reducing exposure to trading volatility,&#34; said Beth Sewell, president and chief executive at Quantum Gas &amp; Power Services, an energy management, procurement and consulting services firm.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“公用事業公司會提前購買天然氣，從而減少對交易波動的暴露，” Quantum Gas &amp; Power Services 的總裁兼首席執行官 Beth Sewell 表示，該公司提供能源管理、採購和諮詢服務。</p>
</div><p>Given that, she thinks the jump in natural-gas prices is &#34;more about traders thrilled with massive market volatility presenting them with an opportunity to make money - and less about actual long-term impact to retail customers.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鑑於此，她認為天然氣價格的上漲 “更多是交易者因市場波動而感到興奮，認為這是一個賺錢的機會，而不是對零售客户的實際長期影響。”</p>
</div><p>Sewell's company supports retail marketers - which buy, sell, and manage natural gas-supply for customers - and, by and large, it's not really impacting them since most of their gas needs have been purchased for the month, and many have storage assets to draw on to fill demand during times like these, she said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Sewell 的公司支持零售營銷商——這些營銷商為客户購買、銷售和管理天然氣供應——總體而言，這並沒有對他們產生太大影響，因為他們大部分的天然氣需求已經在本月內購買，許多公司還有儲存資產可以在這樣的時期滿足需求，她説。</p>
</div><p>Most residential customers are shielded from higher costs for utilities through hedging activities and by regulated rate structures, said Henry Hoffman, co-portfolio manager of the Catalyst Energy Infrastructure Fund MLXAX. That can help keep a lid on monthly bills for consumers,</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大多數住宅客户通過對沖活動和受監管的費率結構來保護自己免受公用事業公司成本上漲的影響，Catalyst Energy Infrastructure Fund MLXAX 的聯合投資組合經理 Henry Hoffman 表示。這可以幫助控制消費者的月賬單。</p>
</div><p>Sharp price spikes, however, can &#34;still pressure utilities that are insufficiently hedged, potentially leading to earnings volatility or delayed cost recovery,&#34; he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，劇烈的價格飆升仍然可能 “給對沖不足的公用事業公司施加壓力，可能導致收益波動或成本回收延遲，” 他説。</p>
</div><p>'Monster' supply decline</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“巨量” 供應下降</p>
</div><p>Still, what's happening now can greatly impact where natural-gas supplies stand during the summer cooling season and into next winter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，目前發生的事情可能會對夏季製冷季節和下一個冬季的天然氣供應狀況產生重大影響。</p>
</div><p>There's speculation in the natural-gas market that there will be a &#34;monster&#34; withdrawal in supplies - possibility in two weeks with some market forecasts showing a potential withdrawal in the 350 billion-plus cubic-feet levels, Mizuho's Yawger said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>天然氣市場上有關於將會出現 “巨量” 供應提取的猜測——可能在兩週內，一些市場預測顯示可能會出現超過 3500 億立方英尺的提取，瑞穗的 Yawger 表示。</p>
</div><p>If that came to fruition, &#34;it would be the second-largest storage draw of all time,&#34; he said, adding that there only have been four storage withdrawals of 300 billion cubic feet or more in the history of the Energy Information Administration's storage report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果這一情況實現，“這將是有史以來第二大儲存提取，” 他説，並補充説，能源信息管理局的儲存報告歷史上僅有四次提取超過 3000 億立方英尺。</p>
</div><p>For the week ended Jan. 16, the EIA reported a fall of 120 billion cubic feet to 3.065 trillion cubic feet in U.S. natural-gas supplies in storage. Supplies still were well above the year-ago level, and the five-year average, the data shows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 1 月 16 日的一週，EIA 報告稱美國天然氣儲存量下降了 120 億立方英尺，降至 3.065 萬億立方英尺。儲存量仍然高於去年同期水平和五年平均水平，數據顯示。</p>
</div><p>Inventory levels are not concerning at this point, but if cold persists, &#34;inventories can tighten quickly, even from a comfortable starting point,&#34; said Hoffman at the Catalyst Energy Infrastructure Fund.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前庫存水平並不令人擔憂，但如果寒冷持續，“庫存可能會迅速收緊，即使從一個舒適的起點出發，” Catalyst Energy Infrastructure Fund 的 Hoffman 表示。</p>
</div><p>What's more of a worry is that extreme weather could lead the next four-weekly inventory draws to total roughly 850 billion cubic feet, said Simon Wong, portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds. At the same time, &#34;freeze-offs,&#34; which refer to a slowdown in production caused by the cold weather and ice, can reduce output across the Appalachian, Bakken, South Central and Permian regions, he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更令人擔憂的是，極端天氣可能導致接下來的四周庫存減少總計約 850 億立方英尺，Gabelli Funds 的投資組合經理 Simon Wong 表示。同時，他提到，“凍結停產” 是指由於寒冷天氣和冰凍導致的生產減緩，這可能會減少阿巴拉契亞、巴肯、南中部和二疊紀地區的產量。</p>
</div><p>At this rate, natural-gas inventory in March could be around 1.65 trillion cubic feet, which would be a 10% deficit to the five-year average, and inventory at the end of the summer could be around 3.68 trillion cubic feet, or at a 2% deficit to the five-year average, Wong said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以這種速度，3 月份的天然氣庫存可能會達到約 1.65 萬億立方英尺，這將比五年平均水平低 10%；而夏季結束時的庫存可能會達到約 3.68 萬億立方英尺，或比五年平均水平低 2%，Wong 表示。</p>
</div><p>This would result in a market with a &#34;significant deficit&#34; by the end of winter 2026 and into 2027, said Wong.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這將導致到 2026 年冬季末及 2027 年初市場出現 “顯著的赤字”，Wong 表示。</p>
</div><p>Production would then have to grow by at least 4 billion cubic feet per day, he said. If not, there could be further upside in prices for futures contracts covering winter 2026 to 2027, he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他説，屆時生產必須至少每天增長 40 億立方英尺。如果不這樣做，2026 至 2027 年冬季的期貨合約價格可能會進一步上漲。</p>
</div><p>-Myra P. Saefong</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Myra P. Saefong</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該內容由 MarketWatch 創作，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞通訊和《華爾街日報》獨立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道瓊斯新聞通訊</p>
</div><p>01-22-26 1612ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>01-22-26 1612ET</p>
</div>

美國天然氣價格出現 “歷史性” 飆升，美國正準備迎接冬季風暴。這對取暖費用有什麼影響