<p>TradingKey - 在週五的亞洲交易時段，銀價短暫突破 99 美元大關，連續第二天創下歷史新高，距離 100 美元的心理關口僅一步之遙。儘管特朗普對格林蘭的立場發生了 180 度的轉變，承諾排除使用軍事力量的可能性——暫時消除了地緣政治衝突的威脅——但作為避險資產的銀價上漲勢頭依然不減。</p>
<p>在 2026 年剛過去 23 天，銀價已經上漲了 38%，而 2025 年全年則上漲了 146%。倫敦金銀市場協會（LBMA）發佈的《2026 年預測調查》顯示，專業分析師和交易員預計，2026 年黃金的平均日價格將比 2025 年上漲近五成，而銀的平均年價格預計將翻倍。</p>
<p>然而，BCA Research 的首席策略師 Roukaya Ibrahim 在她最新的貴金屬報告中表示，儘管她對銀的長期前景持樂觀態度，但考慮到近期的急劇上漲，出現大幅回調的可能性增加。因此，她不建議在當前價格水平追逐這一上漲。</p>
<h2>強勁需求：長期前景依然看漲</h2>
<p>Ibrahim 指出，從中長期來看，宏觀和地緣政治前景為銀價提供了有利支持。“在過去一年中，我們對貴金屬領域的銀持樂觀態度。” 不僅僅是銀，自 2025 年下半年以來，整個貴金屬行業的需求顯著上升。</p>
<p>一方面，銀受益於強勁的工業需求，因為光伏、電動車和人工智能基礎設施等高增長行業都需要銀作為關鍵材料。根據銀協會的最新報告，2025 年全球銀供應為 32,100 噸，而需求達到 35,700 噸，其中工業銀佔總需求的 60%。預計未來五年全球對銀的工業需求將繼續增長。</p>
<p>此外，銀價的上漲與其供應鏈的 “中斷” 有關。從 2026 年開始，中國公司需要政府許可證才能出口銀，目前只有 44 家公司獲得授權。為了獲得出口資格，企業必須具備至少 80 噸的年精煉能力和超過 3000 萬美元的信用額度。這減少了銀流入全球市場的數量。</p>
<p>與此同時，在全球範圍內，美國正在 “抽取” 實物銀。當前 COMEX（紐約商業交易所）的銀庫存比 2024 年美國大選前高出約 1.25 億盎司，增幅相當於全球銀礦年供應的約 15%。然而，特朗普簽署的最新政策——根據《貿易擴展法》第 232 條款關於關鍵礦物進口的行政命令——並未對銀徵收關税，部分緩解了市場對銀短缺的擔憂。</p>
<p>銀價的上漲也反映了市場對法定貨幣，特別是美元的信任度下降。隨着美國進入高利率、高債務和低信用的狀態，去美元化的進程在全球範圍內進一步推進。作為與黃金具有相同貨幣屬性的資產，銀的價值在這一過程中得到了重新確認。</p>
<h2>為什麼現在購買銀可能不是 “划算” 的選擇？</h2>
<p>Ibrahim 指出，儘管銀的看漲因素在短期內不會發生顯著變化，但這些信息已經反映在當前價格中——本質上是一個 “賣出消息” 的情景。儘管美國的通脹壓力依然高企，但並沒有進一步加劇；與此同時，美元在經歷了一段貶值後已趨於穩定，這不會刺激銀價的飆升。</p>
<p>關於銀控制可能導致的價格上漲，Ibrahim 表示不同意見，指出中國的銀出口政策基本保持不變，出口許可證的要求實際上是對以往做法的延續。</p>
<p>相反，銀價可能面臨下跌的風險。她認為，最大的風險可能來自工業消費，因為市場會自然調整以應對價格上漲的影響：製造商將尋求更便宜的替代品，或者通過節約銀的使用或用其他材料替代來應對。她指出，已經有需求側調整的跡象；例如，太陽能電池製造商隆基已宣佈開始使用基礎金屬替代銀以降低成本。</p>
<h2>銀並沒有面臨真正的短缺</h2>
<p>美國領先的貴金屬交易商和存儲運營商 Money Metals Exchange 的首席執行官 Stefan Gleason 表示，美國目前並沒有面臨真正的原銀短缺。</p>
<p>他解釋説，公眾對短缺的看法源於精煉和鑄造的瓶頸，這可能導致訂單積壓、產品缺貨和溢價飆升。實際上，美國有限的銀精煉能力影響了銀產品的生產，但一旦產能恢復正常，情況應該會改善。他指出，用於鑄造的 1000 盎司銀條在美國仍然可用。</p>
<p>Business Review Weekly 創始人 Robert Gottliebsen 表示，目前的銀溢價僅源於零售層面的稀缺，而不是全面的短缺。真正的稀缺只有在工業銀用户開始繞過交易所，直接從礦山和精煉廠採購，從而耗盡市場上可用的金屬時才會發生。儘管某些地區的銀供應緊張，但尚未出現全面的全球短缺擠壓。</p>
<p>瞭解更多</p>

環球銀礦 MSCI ETF - iShares

SLVR

實物白銀股票 ETF - ETFS

白銀信託 ETF - iShares

2 倍做多白銀 ETF - ProShares

白銀礦業股 ETF - GlobalX

SBXD

<p>銀價因強勁的工業需求和地緣政治因素飆升至近 100 美元。分析師預測到 2026 年銀價將翻倍，但警告投資者不要追逐當前的漲勢，因為可能會出現回調。供應鏈中斷和美國庫存增加正在影響市場，而對法定貨幣信任的擔憂則提升了銀的吸引力。然而，風險依然存在，包括工業消費的調整和對短缺的看法，這可能並不反映實際的供應情況</p>

<p>TradingKey - During Friday's Asian trading session, silver briefly broke above the $99 mark, hitting a record high for the second consecutive day and coming within a stone's throw of the $100 psychological level. Despite a 180-degree turnaround in Trump's stance on Greenland, where he pledged to rule out military force—temporarily removing the threat of geopolitical conflict—the rally for silver as a safe-haven asset remained unabated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TradingKey - 在週五的亞洲交易時段，銀價短暫突破 99 美元大關，連續第二天創下歷史新高，距離 100 美元的心理關口僅一步之遙。儘管特朗普對格林蘭的立場發生了 180 度的轉變，承諾排除使用軍事力量的可能性——暫時消除了地緣政治衝突的威脅——但作為避險資產的銀價上漲勢頭依然不減。</p>
</div><p>Just 23 days into 2026, silver prices have already surged by 38%, compared to a 146% gain for the full year of 2025. The &#34;2026 Forecast Survey&#34; released by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) indicates that professional analysts and traders expect the average daily price of gold in 2026 to rise by nearly two-fifths compared to 2025, while the average annual price of silver is expected to double.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2026 年剛過去 23 天，銀價已經上漲了 38%，而 2025 年全年則上漲了 146%。倫敦金銀市場協會（LBMA）發佈的《2026 年預測調查》顯示，專業分析師和交易員預計，2026 年黃金的平均日價格將比 2025 年上漲近五成，而銀的平均年價格預計將翻倍。</p>
</div><p>However, Roukaya Ibrahim, chief strategist at BCA Research, stated in her latest precious metals report that while she remains bullish on silver in the long term, the probability of a significant pullback has increased given the recent sharp rally. Consequently, she does not recommend chasing the rally at current price levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，BCA Research 的首席策略師 Roukaya Ibrahim 在她最新的貴金屬報告中表示，儘管她對銀的長期前景持樂觀態度，但考慮到近期的急劇上漲，出現大幅回調的可能性增加。因此，她不建議在當前價格水平追逐這一上漲。</p>
</div><h2>Robust Demand: Long-Term Outlook Remains Bullish</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>強勁需求：長期前景依然看漲</h2>
</div><p>Ibrahim noted that from a medium- to long-term perspective, the macro and geopolitical outlook provides favorable support for silver prices. &#34;We have been bullish on silver within the commodities matrix for the past year.&#34; It is not just silver; demand across the entire precious metals sector has risen significantly since the second half of 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Ibrahim 指出，從中長期來看，宏觀和地緣政治前景為銀價提供了有利支持。“在過去一年中，我們對貴金屬領域的銀持樂觀態度。” 不僅僅是銀，自 2025 年下半年以來，整個貴金屬行業的需求顯著上升。</p>
</div><p>On one hand, silver benefits from robust industrial demand, as high-growth industries like photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and AI infrastructure all require silver as a critical material. According to the latest report from the Silver Institute, global silver supply in 2025 was 32,100 tons, while demand reached 35,700 tons, with industrial silver accounting for 60% of total demand. Global industrial demand for silver is expected to continue growing over the next five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一方面，銀受益於強勁的工業需求，因為光伏、電動車和人工智能基礎設施等高增長行業都需要銀作為關鍵材料。根據銀協會的最新報告，2025 年全球銀供應為 32,100 噸，而需求達到 35,700 噸，其中工業銀佔總需求的 60%。預計未來五年全球對銀的工業需求將繼續增長。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, the rise in silver prices is linked to &#34;disruptions&#34; in its supply chain. Starting from 2026, Chinese companies require government licenses to export silver, with only 44 companies currently authorized. To qualify for export, firms must have an annual refining capacity of at least 80 tons and a credit line exceeding $30 million. This has reduced the flow of silver into the global market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，銀價的上漲與其供應鏈的 “中斷” 有關。從 2026 年開始，中國公司需要政府許可證才能出口銀，目前只有 44 家公司獲得授權。為了獲得出口資格，企業必須具備至少 80 噸的年精煉能力和超過 3000 萬美元的信用額度。這減少了銀流入全球市場的數量。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, across the globe, the United States is &#34;siphoning&#34; physical silver. Current COMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) silver inventories are approximately 125 million ounces higher than they were before the 2024 U.S. election, an increase equivalent to roughly 15% of annual global silver mine supply. However, the latest policy—an executive order signed by Trump invoking Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act regarding critical mineral imports—did not mandate tariffs on silver, partially easing market concerns over a silver shortage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，在全球範圍內，美國正在 “抽取” 實物銀。當前 COMEX（紐約商業交易所）的銀庫存比 2024 年美國大選前高出約 1.25 億盎司，增幅相當於全球銀礦年供應的約 15%。然而，特朗普簽署的最新政策——根據《貿易擴展法》第 232 條款關於關鍵礦物進口的行政命令——並未對銀徵收關税，部分緩解了市場對銀短缺的擔憂。</p>
</div><p>The rise in silver also reflects the market's diminishing trust in fiat currencies, particularly the U.S. dollar. As the United States enters a state characterized by high interest rates, high debt, and low credit, the de-dollarization process is being further propelled worldwide. As an asset sharing the same monetary attributes as gold, silver's value is being reaffirmed in this process.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>銀價的上漲也反映了市場對法定貨幣，特別是美元的信任度下降。隨着美國進入高利率、高債務和低信用的狀態，去美元化的進程在全球範圍內進一步推進。作為與黃金具有相同貨幣屬性的資產，銀的價值在這一過程中得到了重新確認。</p>
</div><h2>Why Buying Silver Now May Not Be &#34;Cost-Effective&#34;?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為什麼現在購買銀可能不是 “划算” 的選擇？</h2>
</div><p>Ibrahim pointed out that while the bullish factors for silver will not change significantly in the short term, this information is already reflected in current prices—essentially, a &#34;sell the news&#34; scenario. Although U.S. inflationary pressures remain elevated, they have not intensified further; meanwhile, the dollar has stabilized following a period of depreciation, which will not stimulate a surge in silver prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Ibrahim 指出，儘管銀的看漲因素在短期內不會發生顯著變化，但這些信息已經反映在當前價格中——本質上是一個 “賣出消息” 的情景。儘管美國的通脹壓力依然高企，但並沒有進一步加劇；與此同時，美元在經歷了一段貶值後已趨於穩定，這不會刺激銀價的飆升。</p>
</div><p>Regarding potential price increases caused by silver controls, Ibrahim disagreed, noting that China's silver export policy has remained largely unchanged and that the requirement for export licenses is effectively a continuation of practices from previous years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關於銀控制可能導致的價格上漲，Ibrahim 表示不同意見，指出中國的銀出口政策基本保持不變，出口許可證的要求實際上是對以往做法的延續。</p>
</div><p>Conversely, there is a risk that silver prices could fall. She believes the greatest risk may stem from industrial consumption, as the market will naturally adjust to the impact of rising prices: manufacturers will seek cheaper alternatives, either by economizing silver usage or replacing it with other materials. She noted that there are already signs of demand-side adjustments; for example, solar cell manufacturer Longi has announced that it has begun using base metals to replace silver in solar cells to reduce costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，銀價可能面臨下跌的風險。她認為，最大的風險可能來自工業消費，因為市場會自然調整以應對價格上漲的影響：製造商將尋求更便宜的替代品，或者通過節約銀的使用或用其他材料替代來應對。她指出，已經有需求側調整的跡象；例如，太陽能電池製造商隆基已宣佈開始使用基礎金屬替代銀以降低成本。</p>
</div><h2>Silver is Not Facing a Genuine Shortage</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>銀並沒有面臨真正的短缺</h2>
</div><p>Stefan Gleason, CEO of Money Metals Exchange, a leading U.S. precious metals dealer and depository operator, stated that the U.S. is not currently facing a genuine shortage of raw silver.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國領先的貴金屬交易商和存儲運營商 Money Metals Exchange 的首席執行官 Stefan Gleason 表示，美國目前並沒有面臨真正的原銀短缺。</p>
</div><p>He explained that the public perception of a shortage arises from bottlenecks in refining and minting, which can lead to order backlogs, product stockouts, and soaring premiums. The reality is that limited silver refining capacity in the U.S. has affected the production of silver products, but the situation should improve once capacity returns to normal. He noted that 1,000-ounce silver bars used for minting are still available in the U.S.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他解釋説，公眾對短缺的看法源於精煉和鑄造的瓶頸，這可能導致訂單積壓、產品缺貨和溢價飆升。實際上，美國有限的銀精煉能力影響了銀產品的生產，但一旦產能恢復正常，情況應該會改善。他指出，用於鑄造的 1000 盎司銀條在美國仍然可用。</p>
</div><p>Robert Gottliebsen, founder of Business Review Weekly, stated that current silver premiums stem solely from retail-level scarcity rather than a comprehensive shortage. Real scarcity would only occur when industrial silver users begin to bypass exchanges and source directly from mines and refineries, thereby draining the market of available metal. Although there are signs of tight silver supply in some regions, a full-scale global short squeeze has not yet materialized.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Business Review Weekly 創始人 Robert Gottliebsen 表示，目前的銀溢價僅源於零售層面的稀缺，而不是全面的短缺。真正的稀缺只有在工業銀用户開始繞過交易所，直接從礦山和精煉廠採購，從而耗盡市場上可用的金屬時才會發生。儘管某些地區的銀供應緊張，但尚未出現全面的全球短缺擠壓。</p>
</div><p>Find out more</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>瞭解更多</p>
</div>

Silver Prices to Break $100 Mark. First Touching $99, Institutions Warn: Silver Is Severely Overbought

TradingKey

Sprott Silver Mnrs & Physical Silver ETF

Silverbox Corp IV

白銀價格將突破 100 美元大關。首次觸及 99 美元，機構警告稱：白銀已嚴重超買