<p>比特幣再次交易於$90,000 以下，市場繼續在一個由猶豫、日益謹慎和不斷增長的恐懼所定義的階段中漂浮。在多次未能重新奪回這一心理關口後，價格走勢開始反映出雙方缺乏信心，買家猶豫不決，賣家則在每次反彈嘗試中施加壓力。儘管整體趨勢尚未完全崩潰，但無法維持關鍵水平正在增加對比特幣下一次重大走勢的不確定性。</p>
<p>頂級分析師 Darkfost 認為，鏈上信號開始反映出通常在長期回調結束時出現的條件。根據他的分析，比特幣的未實現利潤和損失正在回落至歷史上僅在熊市結束時出現的水平，此時市場已經吸收了情緒的深度重置。這一變化表明，儘管價格尚未進入全面拋售階段，但壓力正在潛伏之下積累。</p>
<p>自比特幣上次創下歷史新高以來，Darkfost 指出，許多晚到的投資者已經進入了不舒服的境地，面臨着隨着市場降温而加劇的下行壓力。因此，未實現利潤正在縮小，未實現損失正在擴大，整體餘額持續惡化——這種環境通常迫使交易者在經歷波動時做出持有或在壓力下退出的決定。</p>
<p><strong>比特幣投資者的決策點</strong></p>
<p>Darkfost 強調了一張基於調整後的 NUPL（淨未實現利潤/損失）圖表，旨在更準確地捕捉在市場環境變化期間投資者的壓力。該模型不僅依賴於標準市值，還結合了短期持有者（STHs）和長期持有者（LTHs）的實現市值，然後將這種混合的實現基礎與比特幣的傳統市值進行比較。</p>
<p>結果是更清晰地看出市場上有多少利潤或損失 “在紙面上”，通過更結構化的視角進行過濾。為了減少噪音並更好地定義趨勢變化，該指標使用平均值進行平滑，產生了 Darkfost 所稱的 aNUPL。</p>
<p>關鍵的結論是，比特幣正接近歷史上迫使投資者做出二元決策的水平。當未實現利潤壓縮和未實現損失擴大到這些範圍時，持有者通常面臨兩種結果：持有並繼續積累，或放棄並鎖定損失。這種行為的差異變得至關重要，因為它影響流動性、情緒和下一個方向趨勢。</p>
<p>如果長期參與者能夠承受壓力並繼續持有，市場可以穩定並重新回到復甦軌道。但如果來自壓力羣體的拋售加速，下降可能會加深為更廣泛的熊市階段。這就是為什麼在不確定時期跟蹤實現和未實現利潤動態仍然至關重要。</p>
<p><strong>比特幣在劇烈周線下跌後整合</strong></p>
<p>比特幣在周線圖上交易於約$89,000，此前經歷了一次急劇的拋售，將價格推離了之前的分配區。最新的蠟燭圖反映出強烈的下行壓力，BTC 在這一週下跌了約 4.8%，並在一個關鍵的支撐和阻力點附近掙扎以穩定。</p>
<p>在未能維持在心理關口$90,000 以上後，市場現在被困在一個狹窄的整合區間，暗示交易者在進行更大動作之前正在等待確認。</p>
<p>從趨勢的角度來看，比特幣仍然脆弱，因為它交易於藍色移動平均線以下，該線現在在低$100K 區域充當上方阻力。從這一動態水平的拒絕與更廣泛的結構一致：BTC 在中$120K 區間見頂，然後進入了一段急劇的修正階段，將動能重置至 2026 年初。儘管綠色移動平均線繼續向上傾斜並接近當前價格區間，但市場尚未顯示出重新奪回其前趨勢軌跡所需的力量。</p>
<p>重要的是，周線結構現在正在壓縮。如果買家能夠捍衞$88K–$90K 區域並將 BTC 推回至$92K–$95K 以上，這將標誌着向移動平均帶的復甦嘗試。然而，在這裏持續失敗增加了向低$80K 區域更深回撤的風險，此前的需求曾在此出現。</p>
<p>圖片來自 ChatGPT，圖表來自 TradingView.com</p>

<p>比特幣目前交易價格低於 90,000 美元，反映出市場的不確定性和投資者日益增強的謹慎。分析師 Darkfost 指出，鏈上信號表明當前的市場狀況典型於熊市結束時的情況，未實現利潤正在縮小，而損失在擴大。這種情況迫使投資者在壓力下選擇持有或退出。本週比特幣價格下跌了 4.8%，在未能維持在 90,000 美元以上後，價格難以穩定。市場處於緊密的整合區間，接下來的走勢將取決於買家能否捍衞關鍵支撐位，或者賣壓是否會加深下跌</p>

<p>Bitcoin is trading below the $90,000 level once again, as the market continues to drift through a phase defined by indecision, rising caution, and growing fear. After repeated failures to reclaim this psychological threshold, price action has started to reflect a lack of conviction on both sides, with buyers hesitating to step in aggressively and sellers pressing every rebound attempt. While the broader trend has not fully collapsed, the inability to hold key levels is increasing uncertainty around Bitcoin’s next major move.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特幣再次交易於$90,000 以下，市場繼續在一個由猶豫、日益謹慎和不斷增長的恐懼所定義的階段中漂浮。在多次未能重新奪回這一心理關口後，價格走勢開始反映出雙方缺乏信心，買家猶豫不決，賣家則在每次反彈嘗試中施加壓力。儘管整體趨勢尚未完全崩潰，但無法維持關鍵水平正在增加對比特幣下一次重大走勢的不確定性。</p>
</div><p>Top analyst Darkfost argues that on-chain signals are starting to mirror conditions typically seen near the end of prolonged drawdowns. According to his analysis, Bitcoin’s unrealized profits and losses are sliding back toward levels that have historically appeared only at the exit of bear markets, when the market has already absorbed a deep reset in sentiment. This shift suggests that stress is building under the surface, even if price has not yet entered a full capitulation phase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>頂級分析師 Darkfost 認為，鏈上信號開始反映出通常在長期回調結束時出現的條件。根據他的分析，比特幣的未實現利潤和損失正在回落至歷史上僅在熊市結束時出現的水平，此時市場已經吸收了情緒的深度重置。這一變化表明，儘管價格尚未進入全面拋售階段，但壓力正在潛伏之下積累。</p>
</div><p>Since Bitcoin’s last all-time high, Darkfost notes that many late-arriving investors have moved into uncomfortable territory, facing mounting downside pressure as the market cools. As a result, unrealized profits are shrinking, unrealized losses are expanding, and the overall balance continues to deteriorate—an environment that often forces traders into a decisive choice between holding through volatility or exiting under stress.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自比特幣上次創下歷史新高以來，Darkfost 指出，許多晚到的投資者已經進入了不舒服的境地，面臨着隨着市場降温而加劇的下行壓力。因此，未實現利潤正在縮小，未實現損失正在擴大，整體餘額持續惡化——這種環境通常迫使交易者在經歷波動時做出持有或在壓力下退出的決定。</p>
</div><p><strong>Decision Point For Bitcoin Investors</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>比特幣投資者的決策點</strong></p>
</div><p>Darkfost highlighted a chart based on an adjusted version of NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss), designed to capture investor stress more accurately during shifting market regimes. Instead of relying solely on the standard market cap, the model incorporates the realized capitalization of both Short-Term Holders (STHs) and Long-Term Holders (LTHs), then compares that blended realized foundation against Bitcoin’s traditional market cap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Darkfost 強調了一張基於調整後的 NUPL（淨未實現利潤/損失）圖表，旨在更準確地捕捉在市場環境變化期間投資者的壓力。該模型不僅依賴於標準市值，還結合了短期持有者（STHs）和長期持有者（LTHs）的實現市值，然後將這種混合的實現基礎與比特幣的傳統市值進行比較。</p>
</div><p>The result is a clearer view of how much profit or loss sits “on paper” across the market, filtered through a more structural lens. To reduce noise and better define trend shifts, the metric is smoothed using an average, producing what Darkfost refers to as aNUPL.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>結果是更清晰地看出市場上有多少利潤或損失 “在紙面上”，通過更結構化的視角進行過濾。為了減少噪音並更好地定義趨勢變化，該指標使用平均值進行平滑，產生了 Darkfost 所稱的 aNUPL。</p>
</div><p>The key takeaway is that Bitcoin is approaching levels that have historically forced investors into a binary decision. When unrealized profits compress and unrealized losses expand to these ranges, holders typically face two outcomes: hold and continue accumulating, or capitulate and lock in losses. That difference in behavior becomes critical because it shapes liquidity, sentiment, and the next directional trend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關鍵的結論是，比特幣正接近歷史上迫使投資者做出二元決策的水平。當未實現利潤壓縮和未實現損失擴大到這些範圍時，持有者通常面臨兩種結果：持有並繼續積累，或放棄並鎖定損失。這種行為的差異變得至關重要，因為它影響流動性、情緒和下一個方向趨勢。</p>
</div><p>If long-term participants absorb the pressure and keep holding, the market can stabilize and rotate back into recovery. But if selling accelerates from stressed cohorts, the decline can deepen into a broader bear phase. This is why tracking realized and unrealized profit dynamics remains essential, especially during periods of uncertainty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果長期參與者能夠承受壓力並繼續持有，市場可以穩定並重新回到復甦軌道。但如果來自壓力羣體的拋售加速，下降可能會加深為更廣泛的熊市階段。這就是為什麼在不確定時期跟蹤實現和未實現利潤動態仍然至關重要。</p>
</div><p><strong>Bitcoin Consolidates After Sharp Weekly Breakdown</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>比特幣在劇烈周線下跌後整合</strong></p>
</div><p>Bitcoin is trading around $89,000 on the weekly chart after a steep selloff that pushed the price out of its prior distribution zone. The latest candle reflects heavy downside pressure, with BTC dropping roughly 4.8% on the week and struggling to stabilize near a key pivot that has repeatedly acted as support and resistance throughout the cycle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特幣在周線圖上交易於約$89,000，此前經歷了一次急劇的拋售，將價格推離了之前的分配區。最新的蠟燭圖反映出強烈的下行壓力，BTC 在這一週下跌了約 4.8%，並在一個關鍵的支撐和阻力點附近掙扎以穩定。</p>
</div><p>After failing to hold above the psychological $90,000 threshold, the market is now trapped in a tight consolidation range, suggesting traders are waiting for confirmation before committing to a larger move.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在未能維持在心理關口$90,000 以上後，市場現在被困在一個狹窄的整合區間，暗示交易者在進行更大動作之前正在等待確認。</p>
</div><p>From a trend standpoint, Bitcoin remains vulnerable as it trades below the blue moving average, which is now acting as overhead resistance near the low-$100K region. The rejection from that dynamic level aligns with the broader structure: BTC topped near the mid-$120K range, then entered a sharp corrective leg that reset momentum into early 2026. While the green moving average continues to slope upward and is approaching the current price zone, the market has not yet shown the strength needed to reclaim its former trend trajectory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從趨勢的角度來看，比特幣仍然脆弱，因為它交易於藍色移動平均線以下，該線現在在低$100K 區域充當上方阻力。從這一動態水平的拒絕與更廣泛的結構一致：BTC 在中$120K 區間見頂，然後進入了一段急劇的修正階段，將動能重置至 2026 年初。儘管綠色移動平均線繼續向上傾斜並接近當前價格區間，但市場尚未顯示出重新奪回其前趨勢軌跡所需的力量。</p>
</div><p>Importantly, the weekly structure is now compressing. If buyers can defend the $88K–$90K region and push BTC back above $92K–$95K, it would signal a recovery attempt toward the moving average band. However, a sustained failure here increases the risk of a deeper retracement toward the low-$80K zone, where prior demand previously emerged.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重要的是，周線結構現在正在壓縮。如果買家能夠捍衞$88K–$90K 區域並將 BTC 推回至$92K–$95K 以上，這將標誌着向移動平均帶的復甦嘗試。然而，在這裏持續失敗增加了向低$80K 區域更深回撤的風險，此前的需求曾在此出現。</p>
</div><p>Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來自 ChatGPT，圖表來自 TradingView.com</p>
</div>

Bitcoin Indicator Falls Back To Post-Bear Market Levels: Investors Approach A Key Decision Point

- 比特幣再次跌破 90,000 美元，市場情緒謹慎。  
- 分析師認為，未實現盈利和虧損接近歷史低位，表明潛在壓力。  
- 若未能持穩 88K-90K 區域，可能加深回調至低 80K 區間。

比特幣指標回落至熊市後的水平：投資者面臨關鍵決策點