<p>比特幣（[BTC]）近期的價格走勢突顯出結構性失衡。該資產在近期高位附近震盪交易，但後續買入仍然疲軟。</p>
<p>隨着流動性收緊和風險偏好保持選擇性，波動性持續存在。因此，資本以防禦性而非激進的方式輪換進入比特幣。</p>
<p>在這種背景下，鏈上負需求變得更加顯著。</p>
<p>比特幣的 30 天顯性需求明顯轉為負值。根據 CryptoQuant 的分析，赤字加深至大約 60,000 到 80,000 BTC，確認了輕微的失衡。</p>
<p>這一變化反映了礦工和長期持有者的分配，而新買家未能吸收供應。宏觀條件也起到了影響。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Bitcoin-Apparent-Demand_-30-day-sum-1-scaled.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Bitcoin-Apparent-Demand_-30-day-sum-1-scaled.png"/></p>
<p>來源：CryptoQuant</p>
<p>流動性收緊和利率上升降低了風險偏好，減緩了資金流入。重要的是，這一下降並不是由於質押或故意 withholding。</p>
<p>相反，幣種積極重新進入流通。因此，價格承壓，處於整合和回撤狀態，而非擴張。</p>
<p>在 2021-2022 週期轉換期間，持續的負需求同樣預示着長期下行，並限制了儘管價格暫時堅挺的反彈。</p>
<p>當前的局勢與那個階段相似，表面上的穩定掩蓋了市場結構的疲弱。</p>
<p>除非需求顯著恢復，否則這種模式增加了近期價格強勢反映出晚週期或熊市反彈而非重新積累的風險。</p>
<p>如果現貨 ETF 流入穩定或流動性放鬆，情況可能會緩解，這可能在幾周內提供緩解，而不是持久的反轉。</p>
<h2><strong>比特幣 ETF 流出加劇需求疲軟</strong></h2>
<p>比特幣現貨 ETF 流動顯示資本流動與潛在需求之間的日益不匹配。</p>
<p>截至發稿時，數據顯示淨流出超過每週 13 億美元，儘管總 ETF 資產高達 1159 億美元，價格徘徊在 89,500 美元附近。</p>
<p>這種偏差與顯性需求轉向-67,000 BTC 赤字的新變化相吻合，確認了現貨吸收疲軟。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/0a30efee-506c-450d-a760-e9cd717f6340.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/0a30efee-506c-450d-a760-e9cd717f6340.png"/></p>
<p>來源：SoSoValue</p>
<p>ETF 最初通過吸收過剩的比特幣供應來支持反彈。然而，最近持續出現的紅色柱狀圖信號表明了變化。</p>
<p>ETF 活動現在反映的是分配，而非積累，表明市場行為和投資者意圖的變化。歷史上，類似的 ETF 流出階段在 2021 年底之前預示着更廣泛的市場疲軟。</p>
<p>當前的流動表明了謹慎的情緒、風險承擔和由宏觀因素驅動的風險厭惡，增強了下行壓力並限制了向上突破的能力。</p>
<hr/>
<h2>最後思考</h2>
<ul>
<li><em>比特幣的價格保持韌性，但潛在需求已顯著減弱，顯性需求降至-60,000 到-80,000 BTC 的赤字。</em></li>
<li><em>與此同時，持續的現貨 ETF 流出超過每週 13 億美元，正在加劇這一需求短缺，信號顯示下行風險增加。</em></li>
</ul>

<p>比特幣近期的價格走勢顯示出結構性失衡，交易接近高位但買入力度疲弱。負面的鏈上需求已經出現，30 天的明顯需求赤字為 60,000 到 80,000 BTC。流動性緊縮和利率上升正在降低風險偏好，導致價格整合而非擴張。每週超過 13 億美元的 ETF 資金流出表明從積累轉向分配，反映出投資者的謹慎。除非需求恢復，否則當前的價格強勢可能代表着週期末的反彈，增加下行風險</p>

<p>Bitcoin’s [BTC] recent price action highlights a structural imbalance. The asset trades range-bound near recent highs, yet follow-through buying remains weak.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特幣（[BTC]）近期的價格走勢突顯出結構性失衡。該資產在近期高位附近震盪交易，但後續買入仍然疲軟。</p>
</div><p>Volatility persists as liquidity tightens and risk appetite stays selective. Consequently, capital rotates defensively rather than aggressively into Bitcoin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着流動性收緊和風險偏好保持選擇性，波動性持續存在。因此，資本以防禦性而非激進的方式輪換進入比特幣。</p>
</div><p>Against this backdrop, negative on-chain demand becomes more significant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這種背景下，鏈上負需求變得更加顯著。</p>
</div><p>Bitcoin’s 30-day Apparent Demand has shifted clearly into negative territory. According to CryptoQuant’s analysis, the deficit deepens to roughly 60,000 to 80,000 BTC, confirming a minor imbalance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特幣的 30 天顯性需求明顯轉為負值。根據 CryptoQuant 的分析，赤字加深至大約 60,000 到 80,000 BTC，確認了輕微的失衡。</p>
</div><p>This change reflects distribution by miners and long-term holders, while new buyers fail to absorb supply. Macro conditions contribute as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一變化反映了礦工和長期持有者的分配，而新買家未能吸收供應。宏觀條件也起到了影響。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Bitcoin-Apparent-Demand_-30-day-sum-1-scaled.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Bitcoin-Apparent-Demand_-30-day-sum-1-scaled.png"/></p>
<p>Source: CryptoQuant</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：CryptoQuant</p>
</div><p>Tighter liquidity and elevated rates reduce risk appetite and slow inflows. Importantly, the decline is not driven by staking or intentional withholding.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>流動性收緊和利率上升降低了風險偏好，減緩了資金流入。重要的是，這一下降並不是由於質押或故意 withholding。</p>
</div><p>Instead, coins actively re-enter circulation. As a result, price comes under strain, consolidating and retracing rather than expanding.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，幣種積極重新進入流通。因此，價格承壓，處於整合和回撤狀態，而非擴張。</p>
</div><p>During the 2021–2022 cycle transition, similarly sustained negative demand preceded prolonged downside and capped rallies despite temporary price resilience.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2021-2022 週期轉換期間，持續的負需求同樣預示着長期下行，並限制了儘管價格暫時堅挺的反彈。</p>
</div><p>The current setup echoes that phase, where stability at the surface masked a weakening market structure underneath.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當前的局勢與那個階段相似，表面上的穩定掩蓋了市場結構的疲弱。</p>
</div><p>Unless demand recovers meaningfully, this pattern increases the risk that recent price strength reflects a late-cycle or bear-market rally rather than renewed accumulation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除非需求顯著恢復，否則這種模式增加了近期價格強勢反映出晚週期或熊市反彈而非重新積累的風險。</p>
</div><p>The situation could ease if spot ETF inflows stabilize or liquidity loosens, likely offering relief for several weeks rather than a lasting reversal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果現貨 ETF 流入穩定或流動性放鬆，情況可能會緩解，這可能在幾周內提供緩解，而不是持久的反轉。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Bitcoin ETF outflows reinforce weakening demand</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>比特幣 ETF 流出加劇需求疲軟</strong></h2>
</div><p>Bitcoin spot ETF flows reveal a growing mismatch between capital movement and underlying demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特幣現貨 ETF 流動顯示資本流動與潛在需求之間的日益不匹配。</p>
</div><p>At press time, the data indicated the net outflows were more than $1.3 billion per week, although the total ETF assets stood at a high of $115.9 billion, and the price was hovering near $89,500.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至發稿時，數據顯示淨流出超過每週 13 億美元，儘管總 ETF 資產高達 1159 億美元，價格徘徊在 89,500 美元附近。</p>
</div><p>Such deviation coincides with the new turn in apparent demand toward a -67,000 BTC deficit, which confirms weak spot absorption.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種偏差與顯性需求轉向-67,000 BTC 赤字的新變化相吻合，確認了現貨吸收疲軟。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/0a30efee-506c-450d-a760-e9cd717f6340.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/0a30efee-506c-450d-a760-e9cd717f6340.png"/></p>
<p>Source: SoSoValue</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：SoSoValue</p>
</div><p>ETFs initially supported rallies by absorbing excess Bitcoin supply. However, more recently, the appearance of persistent red bars signals a shift.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ETF 最初通過吸收過剩的比特幣供應來支持反彈。然而，最近持續出現的紅色柱狀圖信號表明了變化。</p>
</div><p>Instead of accumulation, ETF activity now reflects distribution, indicating a change in market behavior and investor intent. Historically, similar ETF outflow phases in late 2021 preceded broader market weakness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ETF 活動現在反映的是分配，而非積累，表明市場行為和投資者意圖的變化。歷史上，類似的 ETF 流出階段在 2021 年底之前預示着更廣泛的市場疲軟。</p>
</div><p>The current flows indicate tentative mood, risk-taking, and risk aversion driven by macro-considerations, enhancing pressure on the downside and constraining the ability to follow through with the upside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當前的流動表明了謹慎的情緒、風險承擔和由宏觀因素驅動的風險厭惡，增強了下行壓力並限制了向上突破的能力。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2>Final Thoughts</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最後思考</h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>Bitcoin’s price remains resilient, but underlying demand has weakened materially, with apparent demand falling into a -60,000 to -80,000 BTC deficit.</em></li>
<li><em>At the same time, persistent spot ETF outflows exceeding $1.3 billion per week are amplifying this demand shortfall, signaling increasing downside risk.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>比特幣的價格保持韌性，但潛在需求已顯著減弱，顯性需求降至-60,000 到-80,000 BTC 的赤字。</em></li>
<li><em>與此同時，持續的現貨 ETF 流出超過每週 13 億美元，正在加劇這一需求短缺，信號顯示下行風險增加。</em></li>
</ul>
</div>

Bitcoin mirrors 2021 setup: Is a BTC price pullback ahead?

- 比特幣價格在高位範圍波動，但跟進買盤疲軟。  
- 30 天的明顯需求轉為負值，缺口達 60,000 到 80,000 BTC。  
- 持續的 ETF 淨流出增強了需求不足的風險。

比特幣的走勢是否與 2021 年相似：BTC 價格是否即將回調？