<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/15-0213-123-commodities-johnson-youtube-1280x720-1-1.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/15-0213-123-commodities-johnson-youtube-1280x720-1-1.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>來源</em></p>
<p>以下是我本週遇到的一些最有趣的事情。</p>
<p><strong>鏈接</strong></p>
<p>“滯後關税傳遞、勞動力供應緊縮、財政政策寬鬆以及金融環境寬鬆共同創造了一個宏觀環境，在這個環境中，到 2026 年底通脹率超過 4% 不僅是合理的，而且可以説是最可能的情景，” 彼得·奧爾扎格和亞當·波森表示。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-23-at-12.45.46-PM.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-23-at-12.45.46-PM.png"/></p>
<p><strong>圖表</strong></p>
<p>通脹壓力的迴歸是金屬市場已經在警告的事情。“ breakeven 通脹與金屬價格之間的差距依然存在。金屬價格會下跌，還是 breakeven 通脹會上升？”《每日快訊》問道。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/bafkreigaivxze35lxr7n4mabx3vinyito5h567efmqg2gyd3vdttj3rnoi.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/bafkreigaivxze35lxr7n4mabx3vinyito5h567efmqg2gyd3vdttj3rnoi.jpg"/></p>
<p><strong>鏈接</strong></p>
<p>與此同時，股市越來越容易受到資產泡沫破裂的影響。正如科裏·多克託羅所寫，“人工智能是一個泡沫，它將破裂。大多數公司將失敗。大多數數據中心將關閉或出售零件……正如斯坦因法則所説：‘任何不能永遠持續的事物最終都會停止。’”</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-23-at-12.46.06-PM.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-23-at-12.46.06-PM.png"/></p>
<p><strong>圖表</strong></p>
<p>因此，“這是一個完美的環境，讓商品在金融資產中實現代際超越。硬資產在實際價值上攀升，而以越來越貶值、無擔保貨幣計價的股票和債券則進一步落後，” 西蒙·懷特寫道。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/bafkreid2bnfji3b6x7f44pbllezb653e6fky24hfcvbcdmtqmlyqgcjgka.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/bafkreid2bnfji3b6x7f44pbllezb653e6fky24hfcvbcdmtqmlyqgcjgka.jpg"/></p>
<p><strong>鏈接</strong></p>
<p>由於金屬已經在某種程度上折價這些動態，今天真正的機會可能在於尚未這樣做的商品。“我們可能生活在一個 ‘以防萬一’ 的世界，但大多數交易者仍然對石油持有 ‘及時’ 的看法，他們似乎假設未來沒有麻煩，” 拉娜·福羅哈寫道。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-23-at-12.46.31-PM.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-23-at-12.46.31-PM.png"/></p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>任何人都可以在這個行業中學習到的最強有力的教訓</p>
<p>被厭惡的股票在哪裏？</p>
<p>沃倫·巴菲特傳奇成功的秘密</p>

<p>當前的宏觀環境以通貨膨脹上升、勞動力供應緊縮和財政政策寬鬆為特徵，被視為有利於商品表現優於金融資產。專家建議，到 2026 年，通貨膨脹可能超過 4%，這將影響金屬價格和盈虧平衡通脹。對潛在股市泡沫的擔憂，特別是在人工智能領域，進一步支持了對實物資產的看法。由於商品預計在實際價值上將增值，交易者可能需要調整對石油和其他商品的看法</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/15-0213-123-commodities-johnson-youtube-1280x720-1-1.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/15-0213-123-commodities-johnson-youtube-1280x720-1-1.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Source</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>來源</em></p>
</div><p>Below are some of the most interesting things I came across this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是我本週遇到的一些最有趣的事情。</p>
</div><p><strong>LINK</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>鏈接</strong></p>
</div><p>“Together, lagged tariff pass‑through, tightening labor supply, looser fiscal policy, and accommodative financial conditions create a macro environment in which inflation rising above 4% by the end of 2026 is not only plausible but arguably the most likely scenario,” argue Peter Orszag and Adam Posen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“滯後關税傳遞、勞動力供應緊縮、財政政策寬鬆以及金融環境寬鬆共同創造了一個宏觀環境，在這個環境中，到 2026 年底通脹率超過 4% 不僅是合理的，而且可以説是最可能的情景，” 彼得·奧爾扎格和亞當·波森表示。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-23-at-12.45.46-PM.png" alt="" original-src="https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-23-at-12.45.46-PM.png"/></p>
<p><strong>CHART</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>圖表</strong></p>
</div><p>The return of inflationary pressures is something the metals markets are already warning about. “The gap between breakeven inflation and metal prices persists. Will metal prices fall, or will breakeven inflation rise?” asks The Daily Shot.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通脹壓力的迴歸是金屬市場已經在警告的事情。“ breakeven 通脹與金屬價格之間的差距依然存在。金屬價格會下跌，還是 breakeven 通脹會上升？”《每日快訊》問道。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/bafkreigaivxze35lxr7n4mabx3vinyito5h567efmqg2gyd3vdttj3rnoi.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/bafkreigaivxze35lxr7n4mabx3vinyito5h567efmqg2gyd3vdttj3rnoi.jpg"/></p>
<p><strong>LINK</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>鏈接</strong></p>
</div><p>At the same time, the stock market is increasingly vulnerable to a bursting asset bubble. As Cory Doctorow writes, “AI is a bubble and it will burst. Most of the companies will fail. Most of the datacenters will be shuttered or sold for parts… As Stein’s law has it: ‘Anything that can’t go on forever eventually stops.'”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，股市越來越容易受到資產泡沫破裂的影響。正如科裏·多克託羅所寫，“人工智能是一個泡沫，它將破裂。大多數公司將失敗。大多數數據中心將關閉或出售零件……正如斯坦因法則所説：‘任何不能永遠持續的事物最終都會停止。’”</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-23-at-12.46.06-PM.png" alt="" original-src="https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-23-at-12.46.06-PM.png"/></p>
<p><strong>CHART</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>圖表</strong></p>
</div><p>As such, “It’s the perfect environment for commodities to forge a generational outperformance over financial assets. Hard assets climb in real terms, while stocks and bonds, denominated in increasingly debauched, unbacked currencies, fall further behind,” writes Simon White.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，“這是一個完美的環境，讓商品在金融資產中實現代際超越。硬資產在實際價值上攀升，而以越來越貶值、無擔保貨幣計價的股票和債券則進一步落後，” 西蒙·懷特寫道。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/bafkreid2bnfji3b6x7f44pbllezb653e6fky24hfcvbcdmtqmlyqgcjgka.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/bafkreid2bnfji3b6x7f44pbllezb653e6fky24hfcvbcdmtqmlyqgcjgka.jpg"/></p>
<p><strong>LINK</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>鏈接</strong></p>
</div><p>With metals already discounting these dynamics to some degree, the real opportunity today may be in commodities that have yet to do so. “We may be living in a ‘just in case’ world but most traders still have a ‘just in time’ view on oil, and they seem to assume there is no trouble on the horizon,” writes Rana Foroohar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於金屬已經在某種程度上折價這些動態，今天真正的機會可能在於尚未這樣做的商品。“我們可能生活在一個 ‘以防萬一’ 的世界，但大多數交易者仍然對石油持有 ‘及時’ 的看法，他們似乎假設未來沒有麻煩，” 拉娜·福羅哈寫道。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-23-at-12.46.31-PM.png" alt="" original-src="https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-23-at-12.46.31-PM.png"/></p>
<hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>The Most Powerful Lesson Anyone Can Learn In This Business</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>任何人都可以在這個行業中學習到的最強有力的教訓</p>
</div><p>Where Are The Hated Stocks?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>被厭惡的股票在哪裏？</p>
</div><p>The Secret Of Warren Buffett’s Storied Success</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃倫·巴菲特傳奇成功的秘密</p>
</div>

大宗商品超常表現的理想環境