<p><strong>曾經主導投資者投資組合的主要科技公司正在目睹其市場價值崩潰，因為人工智能工具的崛起威脅着重塑商業運作方式。</strong></p>
<p>軟件行業的大牌公司最近在股市上遭受重創。Salesforce、Adobe 和 ServiceNow 自去年初以來各自損失超過 30% 的市值。一個追蹤較小軟件企業的指數在同一時期內下跌超過 20%。</p>
<p>本月，下降速度加快。這發生在 Anthropic 推出 Claude Code 之後，這是一款專家稱可以大幅縮短創建複雜軟件程序所需時間的 AI 程序。這項技術引發了對所謂 “氛圍編碼” 的擔憂，即 AI 系統快速生成應用程序和網站。</p>
<p>“敍事確實發生了轉變，” RBC Capital Markets 的軟件公司分析師 Rishi Jaluria 説道。</p>
<p>根據 Jaluria 的説法，市場情緒發生了劇烈變化。最初，投資者認為軟件公司會從 AI 發展中受益。現在他們提出了一個不同的問題：“AI 是否只是軟件的終結？”</p>
<p>接下來的幾天將提供更多關於科技整體健康狀況的線索。蘋果、Meta Platforms 和微軟計劃發佈財報。美聯儲也計劃召開會議，儘管預計不會對利率進行調整。</p>
<p>這一逆轉標誌着一個曾在幾年前主導華爾街關注的行業的驚人轉變。</p>
<h3>軟件繁榮的過去</h3>
<p>在 2010 年代，軟件似乎實現了 Marc Andreessen 的預測，即它將 “吞噬世界”。快速的互聯網連接和雲計算推動了擴張。公司可以從像 Amazon.com 這樣的提供商租用存儲，而不是維護自己的數據中心。新的軟件企業在各地湧現。</p>
<p>它們解決了從瑜伽工作室調度和支付處理到企業網絡安全防禦的各種問題。</p>
<p>華爾街對該行業的看法完全轉變。曾被視為風險的領域，軟件獲得了可靠性的聲譽。公司在將產品整合到其運營後很少更換產品。長期訂閲協議帶來了可預測的收入流。投資者對此高度重視。</p>
<p>股價急劇上漲。該行業吸引了大量借貸資金，私募股權公司爭相收購公司。疫情期間的遠程工作需求使繁榮加速。利率下降使借貸成本降低，進一步助長了這一趨勢。</p>
<p>當利率在 2022 年上升，員工重返辦公室時，情況開始發生變化。</p>
<p>資助軟件收購的貸款人開始看到裂痕。競爭加劇。負債沉重的公司開始掙扎。</p>
<p>在 2020 年之前，軟件貸款違約幾乎是未知的。這部分是因為對這些公司的貸款相對較新。然而，根據 PitchBook LCD 的數據，在過去兩年中，有 13 家軟件企業未能履行其債務義務。這包括破產和庭外債務重組。</p>
<p>Quest 體現了這些挑戰。該公司開發 OneLogin 軟件用於員工身份驗證。Clearlake Capital 在 2022 年初以 36 億美元的投資者貸款收購了 Quest。儘管受益於遠程工作趨勢，但 Quest 在面臨競爭對手 Okta 的壓力下，因債務負擔而陷入困境。該公司在去年六月與貸款人達成了重組協議。</p>
<h3>投資者謹慎加劇</h3>
<p>軟件貸款的違約率總體上仍低於收購貸款的違約率。投資者並沒有完全撤離。但根據 PitchBook LCD 數據，投資者對持有軟件貸款所要求的溢價在過去 15 個月中有所上升。儘管整體貸款溢價有所下降。</p>
<p>“投資者基礎顯然對這些軟件公司進行了更為嚴格的審查，” Seix Investment Advisors 的投資組合經理 Vince Flanagan 説道。</p>
<p>AI 的出現加深了這種謹慎。主要風險包括來自新進入者的競爭以及公司自行開發軟件而不是支付外部供應商的費用。</p>
<p>大多數分析師並不認為軟件公司會很快消失。更直接的擔憂是收入增長放緩，Jaluria 解釋道。客户正在測試替代方案，而不是購買典型的升級和附加產品。</p>
<p>Jaluria 認為 AI 可能會傷害 “肥胖、懶惰的 incumbents”，同時幫助那些利用 AI 來增強其產品的創新公司。</p>
<h3>對 AI 未來的疑問增加了不確定性</h3>
<p>AI 熱情最近推動股票創下新高。但投資者對支持哪些與 AI 相關的公司變得更加挑剔。</p>
<p>公司正在為 AI 基礎設施項目大量借款。貸款人正在謹慎行事。他們對 Meta 和 Oracle 等大額支出者要求更高的利息支付，相對於其信用質量。</p>
<p>投資者正在提出嚴峻的問題，他補充道。“這些投資是可持續的嗎？它們會盈利嗎？會有現金流嗎，還是不會？”</p>
<p>在關鍵地方被看到。請在 Cryptopolitan Research 上做廣告，接觸加密領域最敏鋭的投資者和建設者。</p>

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<p>自去年初以來，Salesforce、Adobe 和 ServiceNow 的市值已下降超過 30%，因為人工智能工具的崛起正在重塑商業運營。較小軟件公司的指數也下降了超過 20%。在 Anthropic 推出 Claude Code 後，下降趨勢加速，引發了人們對人工智能對軟件開發影響的擔憂。市場情緒已從對人工智能好處的樂觀轉向對其可能擾亂軟件行業的恐懼。投資者現在更加謹慎，在競爭加劇和收入增長預期變化的背景下，仔細審視軟件公司</p>

<p><strong>Major technology firms that once dominated investor portfolios are watching their market value crumble as the rise of artificial intelligence tools threatens to reshape how businesses operate.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>曾經主導投資者投資組合的主要科技公司正在目睹其市場價值崩潰，因為人工智能工具的崛起威脅着重塑商業運作方式。</strong></p>
</div><p>Big names in the software industry have taken a beating on stock markets recently. Salesforce, Adobe, and ServiceNow have each lost more than 30% of their value since early last year. An index tracking smaller software businesses has dropped over 20% during the same stretch.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>軟件行業的大牌公司最近在股市上遭受重創。Salesforce、Adobe 和 ServiceNow 自去年初以來各自損失超過 30% 的市值。一個追蹤較小軟件企業的指數在同一時期內下跌超過 20%。</p>
</div><p>The decline picked up speed this month. That happened after Anthropic launched Claude Code, an AI program that experts say can drastically cut down the time needed to create complicated software programs. The technology has sparked concerns about something called “vibe coding,” where AI systems rapidly generate applications and websites.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本月，下降速度加快。這發生在 Anthropic 推出 Claude Code 之後，這是一款專家稱可以大幅縮短創建複雜軟件程序所需時間的 AI 程序。這項技術引發了對所謂 “氛圍編碼” 的擔憂，即 AI 系統快速生成應用程序和網站。</p>
</div><p>“The narrative has really shifted,” said Rishi Jaluria, who analyzes software companies for RBC Capital Markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“敍事確實發生了轉變，” RBC Capital Markets 的軟件公司分析師 Rishi Jaluria 説道。</p>
</div><p>Market sentiment has swung dramatically, according to Jaluria. Initially, investors believed software firms would gain from AI developments. Now they’re asking a different question: “Is AI just the death of software?”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 Jaluria 的説法，市場情緒發生了劇烈變化。最初，投資者認為軟件公司會從 AI 發展中受益。現在他們提出了一個不同的問題：“AI 是否只是軟件的終結？”</p>
</div><p>The coming days will offer more clues about technology’s broader health. Apple, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft are scheduled to release earnings reports. The Federal Reserve also has a meeting planned, though no changes to interest rates are anticipated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>接下來的幾天將提供更多關於科技整體健康狀況的線索。蘋果、Meta Platforms 和微軟計劃發佈財報。美聯儲也計劃召開會議，儘管預計不會對利率進行調整。</p>
</div><p>The reversal marks a stunning turnabout for an industry that dominated Wall Street attention just a few years back.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一逆轉標誌着一個曾在幾年前主導華爾街關注的行業的驚人轉變。</p>
</div><h3>The software boom that was</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>軟件繁榮的過去</h3>
</div><p>Throughout the 2010s, software appeared to fulfill Marc Andreessen’s prediction that it would “eat the world.” Fast internet connections and cloud computing powered the expansion. Companies could rent storage from providers like Amazon.com instead of maintaining their own data centers.New software ventures sprouted up everywhere</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2010 年代，軟件似乎實現了 Marc Andreessen 的預測，即它將 “吞噬世界”。快速的互聯網連接和雲計算推動了擴張。公司可以從像 Amazon.com 這樣的提供商租用存儲，而不是維護自己的數據中心。新的軟件企業在各地湧現。</p>
</div><p>They tackled everything from yoga studio scheduling and payment processing to corporate cybersecurity defense.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它們解決了從瑜伽工作室調度和支付處理到企業網絡安全防禦的各種問題。</p>
</div><p>Wall Street’s view of the sector transformed completely. Once considered risky, software earned a reputation for dependability. Companies rarely switched products after integrating them into their operations. Long-term subscription deals brought predictable income streams. Investors valued that highly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>華爾街對該行業的看法完全轉變。曾被視為風險的領域，軟件獲得了可靠性的聲譽。公司在將產品整合到其運營後很少更換產品。長期訂閲協議帶來了可預測的收入流。投資者對此高度重視。</p>
</div><p>Stock prices climbed sharply. The sector attracted floods of borrowed money as private equity firms rushed to buy companies. Remote work requirements during the pandemic sent the boom into overdrive. Falling interest rates made borrowing cheaper, which added fuel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股價急劇上漲。該行業吸引了大量借貸資金，私募股權公司爭相收購公司。疫情期間的遠程工作需求使繁榮加速。利率下降使借貸成本降低，進一步助長了這一趨勢。</p>
</div><p>Things started changing when rates climbed in 2022, and workers returned to offices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當利率在 2022 年上升，員工重返辦公室時，情況開始發生變化。</p>
</div><p>Lenders who had funded software acquisitions began seeing cracks. Competition intensified. Companies carrying heavy debt loads started struggling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>資助軟件收購的貸款人開始看到裂痕。競爭加劇。負債沉重的公司開始掙扎。</p>
</div><p>Software loan defaults were virtually unknown before 2020. That was partly because lending to such companies was relatively new. Over the past two years, however, 13 software businesses have failed to meet their debt obligations, according to PitchBook LCD. That includes both bankruptcies and out-of-court debt restructurings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2020 年之前，軟件貸款違約幾乎是未知的。這部分是因為對這些公司的貸款相對較新。然而，根據 PitchBook LCD 的數據，在過去兩年中，有 13 家軟件企業未能履行其債務義務。這包括破產和庭外債務重組。</p>
</div><p>Quest exemplifies the challenges. The company makes OneLogin software for employee authentication. Clearlake Capital purchased Quest in early 2022 using $3.6 billion in investor loans. Despite benefiting from remote work trends, Quest buckled under its debt burden while facing competition from Okta, a larger rival. The company reached a restructuring agreement with lenders last June.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Quest 體現了這些挑戰。該公司開發 OneLogin 軟件用於員工身份驗證。Clearlake Capital 在 2022 年初以 36 億美元的投資者貸款收購了 Quest。儘管受益於遠程工作趨勢，但 Quest 在面臨競爭對手 Okta 的壓力下，因債務負擔而陷入困境。該公司在去年六月與貸款人達成了重組協議。</p>
</div><h3>Growing investor caution</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>投資者謹慎加劇</h3>
</div><p>Default rates for software loans remain below those for buyout loans overall. Investors haven’t fled entirely. But the premium that investors demand for holding software loans above benchmark rates has climbed over the past 15 months. That’s happened even as overall loan premiums edged downward, according to PitchBook LCD data seen by WSJ.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>軟件貸款的違約率總體上仍低於收購貸款的違約率。投資者並沒有完全撤離。但根據 PitchBook LCD 數據，投資者對持有軟件貸款所要求的溢價在過去 15 個月中有所上升。儘管整體貸款溢價有所下降。</p>
</div><p>“The investor base is definitely scrutinizing these software names much more closely,” said Vince Flanagan, who manages portfolios at Seix Investment Advisors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“投資者基礎顯然對這些軟件公司進行了更為嚴格的審查，” Seix Investment Advisors 的投資組合經理 Vince Flanagan 説道。</p>
</div><p>AI’s emergence has deepened the caution. The main dangers include fresh competition from newcomers and companies building their own software instead of paying outside vendors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AI 的出現加深了這種謹慎。主要風險包括來自新進入者的競爭以及公司自行開發軟件而不是支付外部供應商的費用。</p>
</div><p>Most analysts don’t expect software companies to vanish soon. The more immediate worry is slower revenue growth, Jaluria explained. Customers are testing alternatives rather than buying typical upgrades and extras.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大多數分析師並不認為軟件公司會很快消失。更直接的擔憂是收入增長放緩，Jaluria 解釋道。客户正在測試替代方案，而不是購買典型的升級和附加產品。</p>
</div><p>Jaluria believes AI could hurt “fat, lazy incumbents” while helping innovative companies that use AI to enhance their offerings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Jaluria 認為 AI 可能會傷害 “肥胖、懶惰的 incumbents”，同時幫助那些利用 AI 來增強其產品的創新公司。</p>
</div><h3>Questions about AI’s future add to the uncertainty</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>對 AI 未來的疑問增加了不確定性</h3>
</div><p>AI enthusiasm has pushed stocks to records recently. But investors have become pickier about which AI-related companies to back.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AI 熱情最近推動股票創下新高。但投資者對支持哪些與 AI 相關的公司變得更加挑剔。</p>
</div><p>Firms are borrowing heavily for AI infrastructure projects. Lenders are proceeding carefully. They’re demanding higher interest payments from big spenders like Meta and Oracle relative to their credit quality.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司正在為 AI 基礎設施項目大量借款。貸款人正在謹慎行事。他們對 Meta 和 Oracle 等大額支出者要求更高的利息支付，相對於其信用質量。</p>
</div><p>Investors are asking hard questions, he added. “Are these investments sustainable? Are they going to be profitable? Are there going to be cash flows, or will there not be?”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者正在提出嚴峻的問題，他補充道。“這些投資是可持續的嗎？它們會盈利嗎？會有現金流嗎，還是不會？”</p>
</div><p>Get seen where it counts. Advertise in Cryptopolitan Research and reach crypto’s sharpest investors and builders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在關鍵地方被看到。請在 Cryptopolitan Research 上做廣告，接觸加密領域最敏鋭的投資者和建設者。</p>
</div>

Salesforce, Adobe, and ServiceNow have lost over 30% of their value since 2025

- 主要科技公司市場價值下滑，受到人工智能工具崛起的威脅。  
- Salesforce、Adobe 和 ServiceNow 自去年以來市值下降超過 30%。  
- 投資者對軟件公司未來增速的擔憂加劇，轉向探討 AI 競爭帶來的影響。

自 2025 年以來，Salesforce、Adobe 和 ServiceNow 的市值已經縮水超過 30%