<p>作者：楊晨，華爾街洞察</p>
<p>在黃金價格突破 5000 美元、股市持續繁榮以及美元走弱的背景下，比特幣曾被視為動量交易和對抗貨幣貶值的工具，但在這場盛宴中卻缺席了。</p>
<p>在避險吸引力方面，加密貨幣對投資者的吸引力不如黃金，而在風險性方面又不如人工智能，其對資本的吸引力在當前市場階段正在下降。</p>
<p><strong>比特幣價格停滯不前，交易量疲軟，長期信仰者轉向股票和貴金屬等更可靠的市場。</strong> 比特幣目前徘徊在 87000 美元左右，比 10 月份的高點下跌了 25%，在過去七天內更是損失了 6%。</p>
<p>... 根據彭博社的數據，投資者在過去一週從與比特幣相關的基金中撤回了超過 13 億美元，繼續從加密貨幣 ETF 中撤資的趨勢。從理論上講，目前的宏觀經濟環境應該對加密貨幣有利。通脹和利率的緩解通常會提升風險偏好，而寬鬆的金融環境和上升的地緣政治不確定性歷來支持被視為對抗貨幣貶值的資產。然而，這一次，比特幣的價格並沒有得到有效支持。資金正在尋求替代避風港。在避險資產方面，貴金屬吸引了資金流入，投資者將其視為應對地緣政治風險和美元走弱的避風港。在風險資產方面，受人工智能需求驅動，股票每股收益顯著改善，科技股持續上漲。相比之下，加密貨幣的避險性不如黃金，風險規避性也不如人工智能，其對資本的吸引力在當前市場階段正在下降。摩根大通上週的一份報告指出，廣泛的股票 ETF 正經歷創紀錄的資金流入，而加密貨幣市場則面臨資金流出。FRNT Financial Inc.的首席執行官兼聯合創始人斯特凡·奧萊特表示：“考慮到這些動態，確實是行業的艱難時刻。加密貨幣現在面臨許多競爭主題——從創新的角度來看，人工智能在過去一年吸引了大量投資，而加密貨幣現在被排除在通脹交易之外。我認為，比特幣需要向參與者證明，它至少可以在 100,000 美元以上交易，才能使牛市有意義的延續。” 這種謹慎不僅體現在價格上。CryptoQuant 的鏈上數據表明，自 2023 年以來，比特幣持有者首次進入了淨實現虧損階段。即使沒有現貨價格崩潰，越來越多的投資者也在削減損失並退出，表明信心減弱。比特幣的未平倉合約遠低於 10 月份拋售前的水平，當時近 200 億美元的市值被抹去。根據 Coinglass 的數據，小型代幣的期貨合約甚至出現了更大的下降。這種謹慎很大程度上可以追溯到去年秋季初開始的拋售，當時大規模清算抹去了數十億美元的加密貨幣財富，甚至影響了經驗豐富的參與者。許多散户投資者選擇退出，而不是在加密貨幣市場內進行輪換。這種停滯既是金融上的，也是概念上的。曾經定義散户加密貨幣持有基礎的持有理念已經減弱。從 NFT 到迷因代幣，曾吸引新參與者進入生態系統的投機週期要麼崩潰，要麼失去信譽。一些投機需求已轉向其他地方。預測平台 Kalshi 和 Polymarket 的交易量正在上升，去中心化合約交易平台 Hyperliquid 也在快速增長，所有這些都吸引了曾推動加密貨幣上漲的同一羣交易者。比特幣的宏觀對沖地位受到質疑 比特幣近期相較於黃金的顯著表現不佳，引發了其作為宏觀對沖工具地位的質疑。即使全球緊張局勢升級，比特幣這一常被稱為數字黃金的資產依然停滯不前。杜克大學教授卡姆·哈維在 10 月份的回調後寫道：“比特幣不太可能取代黃金成為投資者首選的避險資產。” 花旗集團和加密貨幣公司 Tagus Capital 的分析師最近也達成了類似的結論，指出比特幣的通脹對沖功能充其量是偶爾的——更受流動性、風險偏好和科技股流動的影響，而不是與疲弱美元或地緣政治壓力的持久聯繫。剩下的是一個較弱、較安靜的加密市場，仍在運作，但越來越脱離早期的緊迫感和潛力。儘管加密行業之前經歷過長期的停滯和顯著的回調，但在幾乎所有其他資產類別都上漲的這一年中，其缺席尤為顯著。</p>

<p>零售投資者正將關注點從比特幣轉向黃金和白銀，因為比特幣面臨困境，目前交易價格約為 87,000 美元，比 10 月份的高點下跌了 25%。上週，從與比特幣相關的基金中撤回了超過 13 億美元，反映出對加密貨幣的興趣正在下降。儘管宏觀經濟條件有利，比特幣作為避險資產的吸引力正在減弱，許多投資者選擇了股票和貴金屬。分析師質疑比特幣作為宏觀對沖工具的地位，認為它可能無法取代黃金成為首選的避險資產</p>

<p>Author: Yang Chen, Wall Street Insights</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：楊晨，華爾街洞察</p>
</div><p>Amidst gold prices breaking $5,000, a continued stock market boom, and a weakening dollar, Bitcoin, once seen as a tool for momentum trading and hedging against currency devaluation, has been absent from this feast.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在黃金價格突破 5000 美元、股市持續繁榮以及美元走弱的背景下，比特幣曾被視為動量交易和對抗貨幣貶值的工具，但在這場盛宴中卻缺席了。</p>
</div><p>Cryptocurrencies are less attractive to investors than gold in terms of safe-haven appeal and less risky than AI, and their appeal to capital is declining in the current market phase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在避險吸引力方面，加密貨幣對投資者的吸引力不如黃金，而在風險性方面又不如人工智能，其對資本的吸引力在當前市場階段正在下降。</p>
</div><p><strong>Bitcoin prices have stagnated, trading volume is sluggish, and long-term believers are turning to more reliable markets such as stocks and precious metals.</strong> Bitcoin is currently hovering around $87,000, down 25% from its October high, and has lost 6% in just the past seven days.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>比特幣價格停滯不前，交易量疲軟，長期信仰者轉向股票和貴金屬等更可靠的市場。</strong> 比特幣目前徘徊在 87000 美元左右，比 10 月份的高點下跌了 25%，在過去七天內更是損失了 6%。</p>
</div><p>... According to Bloomberg data, investors withdrew over $1.3 billion from Bitcoin-related funds in the past week, continuing the trend of withdrawals from cryptocurrency ETFs. Theoretically, the current macroeconomic environment should be favorable for cryptocurrencies. Easing inflation and interest rates typically boost risk appetite, while loose financial conditions and rising geopolitical uncertainty have historically supported assets touted as hedges against currency devaluation. However, this time, the price of BTC has not received effective support. Funds are seeking alternative havens. On the safe-haven asset side, precious metals are attracting inflows, with investors seeking them as a safe haven from geopolitical risks and a weakening dollar. On the risk asset side, driven by AI demand, stock EPS has improved significantly, and tech stocks continue to see increased gains. In contrast, cryptocurrencies are less safe-haven than gold and less risk-averse than AI, and their appeal to capital is declining in the current market phase. A JPMorgan report last week noted that broad-based equity ETFs are seeing the largest inflows on record, while the cryptocurrency market is experiencing outflows. &#34;Given these dynamics, this is indeed a difficult time for the industry,&#34; said Stephane Ouellette, CEO and co-founder of FRNT Financial Inc. &#34;Cryptocurrencies are now facing many competing themes—from an innovation perspective, artificial intelligence has attracted a lot of investment over the past year, while cryptocurrencies are now excluded from inflation trading. I think Bitcoin needs to prove to participants that it can trade at least above $100,000 for the bull market to have a meaningful continuation.&#34; This caution is not only reflected in prices. CryptoQuant's on-chain data shows that Bitcoin holders have entered a net realized loss phase for the first time since 2023. Even without a spot price crash, more investors are cutting their losses and exiting, indicating waning confidence. Bitcoin open interest is far below pre-October sell-off levels, when nearly $20 billion in market capitalization was wiped out. Futures contracts for smaller tokens have seen even larger declines, according to Coinglass data. Much of this caution dates back to the sell-off that began in early last fall, when a massive liquidation wiped out billions of dollars in cryptocurrency wealth, impacting even seasoned participants. Many retail investors have opted to exit rather than rotate within the cryptocurrency market. This stagnation is both financial and conceptual. The holding philosophy that once defined the foundation of retail cryptocurrency holdings has weakened. From NFTs to meme tokens, the speculative cycles that brought new participants into the ecosystem have either collapsed or lost credibility. Some speculative demand has shifted elsewhere. Trading volumes are rising on prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, and decentralized contract trading platform Hyperliquid is also experiencing rapid growth, all attracting the same group of traders who once drove the rise of cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin's Macro Hedging Status Questioned Bitcoin's recent significant underperformance compared to gold has raised questions about its status as a macro hedging tool. Even with escalating global tensions, Bitcoin, often described as digital gold, remains stagnant. &#34;Bitcoin is unlikely to replace gold as the preferred safe-haven asset for investors,&#34; wrote Duke University professor Cam Harvey after the October pullback. Analysts at Citigroup and cryptocurrency firm Tagus Capital recently reached similar conclusions, noting that Bitcoin's inflation-hedging function is at best sporadic—more influenced by liquidity, risk appetite, and tech stock flows than by a lasting link to a weak dollar or geopolitical pressures. What remains is a weaker, quieter crypto market, still functioning but increasingly detached from its earlier sense of urgency and potential. While the crypto sector has previously experienced prolonged periods of stagnation and significant pullbacks, its absence is particularly striking in a year where almost all other asset classes have risen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>... 根據彭博社的數據，投資者在過去一週從與比特幣相關的基金中撤回了超過 13 億美元，繼續從加密貨幣 ETF 中撤資的趨勢。從理論上講，目前的宏觀經濟環境應該對加密貨幣有利。通脹和利率的緩解通常會提升風險偏好，而寬鬆的金融環境和上升的地緣政治不確定性歷來支持被視為對抗貨幣貶值的資產。然而，這一次，比特幣的價格並沒有得到有效支持。資金正在尋求替代避風港。在避險資產方面，貴金屬吸引了資金流入，投資者將其視為應對地緣政治風險和美元走弱的避風港。在風險資產方面，受人工智能需求驅動，股票每股收益顯著改善，科技股持續上漲。相比之下，加密貨幣的避險性不如黃金，風險規避性也不如人工智能，其對資本的吸引力在當前市場階段正在下降。摩根大通上週的一份報告指出，廣泛的股票 ETF 正經歷創紀錄的資金流入，而加密貨幣市場則面臨資金流出。FRNT Financial Inc.的首席執行官兼聯合創始人斯特凡·奧萊特表示：“考慮到這些動態，確實是行業的艱難時刻。加密貨幣現在面臨許多競爭主題——從創新的角度來看，人工智能在過去一年吸引了大量投資，而加密貨幣現在被排除在通脹交易之外。我認為，比特幣需要向參與者證明，它至少可以在 100,000 美元以上交易，才能使牛市有意義的延續。” 這種謹慎不僅體現在價格上。CryptoQuant 的鏈上數據表明，自 2023 年以來，比特幣持有者首次進入了淨實現虧損階段。即使沒有現貨價格崩潰，越來越多的投資者也在削減損失並退出，表明信心減弱。比特幣的未平倉合約遠低於 10 月份拋售前的水平，當時近 200 億美元的市值被抹去。根據 Coinglass 的數據，小型代幣的期貨合約甚至出現了更大的下降。這種謹慎很大程度上可以追溯到去年秋季初開始的拋售，當時大規模清算抹去了數十億美元的加密貨幣財富，甚至影響了經驗豐富的參與者。許多散户投資者選擇退出，而不是在加密貨幣市場內進行輪換。這種停滯既是金融上的，也是概念上的。曾經定義散户加密貨幣持有基礎的持有理念已經減弱。從 NFT 到迷因代幣，曾吸引新參與者進入生態系統的投機週期要麼崩潰，要麼失去信譽。一些投機需求已轉向其他地方。預測平台 Kalshi 和 Polymarket 的交易量正在上升，去中心化合約交易平台 Hyperliquid 也在快速增長，所有這些都吸引了曾推動加密貨幣上漲的同一羣交易者。比特幣的宏觀對沖地位受到質疑 比特幣近期相較於黃金的顯著表現不佳，引發了其作為宏觀對沖工具地位的質疑。即使全球緊張局勢升級，比特幣這一常被稱為數字黃金的資產依然停滯不前。杜克大學教授卡姆·哈維在 10 月份的回調後寫道：“比特幣不太可能取代黃金成為投資者首選的避險資產。” 花旗集團和加密貨幣公司 Tagus Capital 的分析師最近也達成了類似的結論，指出比特幣的通脹對沖功能充其量是偶爾的——更受流動性、風險偏好和科技股流動的影響，而不是與疲弱美元或地緣政治壓力的持久聯繫。剩下的是一個較弱、較安靜的加密市場，仍在運作，但越來越脱離早期的緊迫感和潛力。儘管加密行業之前經歷過長期的停滯和顯著的回調，但在幾乎所有其他資產類別都上漲的這一年中，其缺席尤為顯著。</p>
</div>

散户投資者紛紛湧向黃金和白銀，而比特幣則被拋棄