<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/risto-ristov/user_content/ckimages/orig_timothy-newman-itz_guchht0-unsplash.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/risto-ristov/user_content/ckimages/orig_timothy-newman-itz_guchht0-unsplash.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>照片由 Timothy Newman 提供，來源於 Unsplash</em></p>
<h3><strong>能源 – 美國液化天然氣工廠減少天然氣攝入</strong></h3>
<p>美國天然氣價格在昨天繼續上漲，前一個月的亨利中心價格收於每百萬英熱單位 $6.80，漲幅接近 29%。自 1 月 19 日以來，總漲幅接近 120%。然而，當觀察到現貨亨利中心價格在最近幾天短暫突破 $30/MMBtu 時，美國天然氣的漲幅顯得更加驚人。這是由於美國範圍內的嚴重冬季風暴所驅動，影響了天然氣生產並提升了取暖需求。預計這場風暴對美國天然氣生產的影響約為 11%。顯然，展望的關鍵問題是這種干擾會持續多久。有跡象表明，生產已經開始恢復，預計昨天的二疊紀地區天然氣產量日增 11%。如果這一趨勢持續下去，價格可能已經達到峯值。</p>
<p>美國天然氣市場的發展仍然讓歐洲市場感到擔憂，因為供應中斷可能會影響美國液化天然氣對歐洲的出口。最近幾天，美國液化天然氣工廠顯著減少了天然氣攝入，估計下降約 48%，這將導致這些工廠的液化天然氣出口減少。TTF 繼續以健康的溢價交易於亞洲液化天然氣，以確保液化天然氣貨物流入歐洲，而歐洲的儲存水平現在已降至 45% 以下。越來越可能的是，儲存將在 25/26 供暖季結束時低於 25% 的水平。這也低於 2022 年的水平。2022 年與 2026 年的區別在於，我們目前看到液化天然氣供應顯著增加，這在一定程度上應該有助於緩解供應擔憂。</p>
<p>油價昨天收低，ICE 布倫特原油下跌超過 0.4%。美國的冬季風暴也應支持取暖燃料的需求，這在取暖油裂解價差中有所體現。嚴寒天氣將干擾美國的石油產出。天氣也影響了煉油廠的運營。因此，煉油廠的開工率在最近幾天有所下降。</p>
<p>還有跡象表明，美國與新任委內瑞拉領導人之間的蜜月期可能即將結束，委內瑞拉總統德爾西·羅德里格斯表示，委內瑞拉已經厭倦了美國的干涉。雖然這些評論可能更多是為了內部消費，但它們確實值得關注，因為它們可能會改變對委內瑞拉石油供應的展望。</p>
<p>哈薩克斯坦的石油產量預計將恢復，Tengizchevroil 正在恢復其 Tengiz 油田的電力供應。由於電力問題，Tengiz 和 Korolev 油田的運營在 2025 年前三個季度停滯，產量約為 890,000 桶/日。與此同時，CPC 終端的維修工作完成也應支持出口流量的恢復。這些流量的恢復應改善即期市場的可用性，給布倫特即期價差施加一些壓力，該價差在 1 月份顯著走強。時差的強勁與對大量石油過剩的預估相悖。</p>
<h3><strong>金屬 - 白銀再次突破 $110/盎司的紀錄</strong></h3>
<p>白銀在其自 2008 年以來最大的一天漲幅中上漲超過 12%，創下 $110/盎司以上的新紀錄，隨後回吐了一部分漲幅。這一上漲反映了其作為貴金屬的吸引力和日益緊張的實物條件：庫存仍然較低，租賃費率高企，市場又進入了供應赤字的一年。價格年初至今上漲約 60%，在 2025 年幾乎上漲了 150%。然而，風險依然存在，高價格可能會引發工業需求的破壞，而白銀的過度波動性也保持了市場的高波動性。黃金與白銀的比率現在已降至 50 以下，為 2011 年以來的最低水平，突顯了白銀的顯著超越表現。</p>
<p>黃金在昨天一度上漲至 $5,100/盎司，延續了其漲勢。受到美聯儲降息預期、美元走弱和持續的地緣政治風險的支持。隨着中央銀行的購買保持強勁，實際利率可能走低，中期展望仍然樂觀。隨着政治不確定性加劇，從特朗普總統推動的政策意外到新的美聯儲主席，再到今年晚些時候的美國中期選舉，黃金應繼續獲得投資者的支持。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>波蘭 12 月零售銷售激增確認強勁的消費者需求</p>
<p>外匯日報：懷疑的美元/日元干預加劇了美元疲軟的時刻</p>
<p>白銀首次突破 $100/盎司</p>

<p>美國天然氣價格飆升近 29%，達到每百萬英熱單位 6.80 美元，原因是嚴重的冬季風暴影響了生產並增加了取暖需求。現貨價格一度超過每百萬英熱單位 30 美元。美國液化天然氣工廠減少了 48% 的天然氣攝入，影響了對歐洲的出口，而歐洲的儲存水平正在下降。油價略微下跌，受到風暴對產量和煉油廠運營影響的影響。銀價飆升超過 12%，創下每盎司 110 美元以上的紀錄，而黃金也上漲至每盎司 5100 美元以上，受到美聯儲降息預期和地緣政治風險的支持</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/risto-ristov/user_content/ckimages/orig_timothy-newman-itz_guchht0-unsplash.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/risto-ristov/user_content/ckimages/orig_timothy-newman-itz_guchht0-unsplash.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Photo by Timothy Newman on Unsplash</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>照片由 Timothy Newman 提供，來源於 Unsplash</em></p>
</div><h3><strong>Energy – US LNG plants reduce gas intake</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>能源 – 美國液化天然氣工廠減少天然氣攝入</strong></h3>
</div><p>US natural gas prices continued their rally yesterday, with front-month Henry Hub settling almost 29% higher at $6.80/MMBtu. This takes the total gains since 19 January to almost 120%. Yet the move in US natural gas is even more astonishing when looking at the spot Henry Hub price, which briefly broke above $30/MMBtu in recent days. It’s been driven by a severe winter storm across the US. This is impacting natural gas production and boosting heating demand. The storm is estimated to have hit around 11% of US natural gas production. The key question for the outlook, obviously, is how long this disruption lasts. There are some signs that production is already recovering, with gas output from the Permian estimated to be up 11% day-on-day yesterday. If this trend continues, it suggests prices have likely peaked.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國天然氣價格在昨天繼續上漲，前一個月的亨利中心價格收於每百萬英熱單位 $6.80，漲幅接近 29%。自 1 月 19 日以來，總漲幅接近 120%。然而，當觀察到現貨亨利中心價格在最近幾天短暫突破 $30/MMBtu 時，美國天然氣的漲幅顯得更加驚人。這是由於美國範圍內的嚴重冬季風暴所驅動，影響了天然氣生產並提升了取暖需求。預計這場風暴對美國天然氣生產的影響約為 11%。顯然，展望的關鍵問題是這種干擾會持續多久。有跡象表明，生產已經開始恢復，預計昨天的二疊紀地區天然氣產量日增 11%。如果這一趨勢持續下去，價格可能已經達到峯值。</p>
</div><p>Developments in the US natural gas market remain a concern for the European market, as supply disruptions could weigh on US LNG exports to Europe. In recent days, US LNG plants have significantly reduced their gas intake, estimated to be down around 48%, which will translate into reduced LNG exports from these plants. TTF continues to trade at a healthy premium to Asian LNG to ensure LNG cargoes move into Europe, where storage has now fallen below 45% full. It’s looking increasingly likely that storage will end the 25/26 heating season at below 25% full. This would also be below the levels seen in 2022. The difference between 2022 and 2026 is that we are currently seeing significant LNG supply ramp-ups, which should help soothe supply concerns to some extent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國天然氣市場的發展仍然讓歐洲市場感到擔憂，因為供應中斷可能會影響美國液化天然氣對歐洲的出口。最近幾天，美國液化天然氣工廠顯著減少了天然氣攝入，估計下降約 48%，這將導致這些工廠的液化天然氣出口減少。TTF 繼續以健康的溢價交易於亞洲液化天然氣，以確保液化天然氣貨物流入歐洲，而歐洲的儲存水平現在已降至 45% 以下。越來越可能的是，儲存將在 25/26 供暖季結束時低於 25% 的水平。這也低於 2022 年的水平。2022 年與 2026 年的區別在於，我們目前看到液化天然氣供應顯著增加，這在一定程度上應該有助於緩解供應擔憂。</p>
</div><p>Oil prices settled lower yesterday, with ICE Brent closing down more than 0.4%. The US winter storm should also support demand for heating fuels, as reflected in the heating oil crack. Freezing conditions will disrupt US oil output. The weather has also affected refinery operations. So, refinery run rates have fallen in recent days.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>油價昨天收低，ICE 布倫特原油下跌超過 0.4%。美國的冬季風暴也應支持取暖燃料的需求，這在取暖油裂解價差中有所體現。嚴寒天氣將干擾美國的石油產出。天氣也影響了煉油廠的運營。因此，煉油廠的開工率在最近幾天有所下降。</p>
</div><p>There are also signs that the honeymoon phase between the US and the new Venezuelan leader may be coming to an end, with President Delcy Rodriguez saying Venezuela has had enough of US interference. While these comments may be more for internal consumption, they are certainly worth keeping an eye on, as they could alter the outlook for Venezuelan oil supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>還有跡象表明，美國與新任委內瑞拉領導人之間的蜜月期可能即將結束，委內瑞拉總統德爾西·羅德里格斯表示，委內瑞拉已經厭倦了美國的干涉。雖然這些評論可能更多是為了內部消費，但它們確實值得關注，因為它們可能會改變對委內瑞拉石油供應的展望。</p>
</div><p>Kazakhstan’s oil output is set to recover, with Tengizchevroil restoring power to its Tengiz field. Operations at the Tengiz and Korolev fields, which produced around 890k b/d over the first three quarters of 2025, were halted last week due to power issues. Meanwhile, the completion of repair work at the CPC terminal should also support a recovery in export flows. A recovery in these flows should improve availability in the prompt market, putting some pressure on the Brent prompt spread, which has strengthened significantly through January. The strength in timespreads has been at odds with estimates for a large oil surplus.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>哈薩克斯坦的石油產量預計將恢復，Tengizchevroil 正在恢復其 Tengiz 油田的電力供應。由於電力問題，Tengiz 和 Korolev 油田的運營在 2025 年前三個季度停滯，產量約為 890,000 桶/日。與此同時，CPC 終端的維修工作完成也應支持出口流量的恢復。這些流量的恢復應改善即期市場的可用性，給布倫特即期價差施加一些壓力，該價差在 1 月份顯著走強。時差的強勁與對大量石油過剩的預估相悖。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Metals - Silver smashes another record above $110/oz</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>金屬 - 白銀再次突破 $110/盎司的紀錄</strong></h3>
</div><p>Silver surged more than 12% in its biggest one-day jump since 2008, hitting a new record above $110/oz, before giving back some of these gains. The rally reflects both its precious metal appeal and tightening physical conditions: inventories remain low, lease rates are elevated, and the market has entered yet another year of supply deficits. Prices are now up around 60% year‑to‑date after a nearly 150% surge in 2025. Yet risks remain, with high prices potentially triggering industrial demand destruction and silver’s tendency to overshoot, keeping volatility high. The gold–silver ratio has now slipped below 50, its lowest level since 2011, underscoring silver’s dramatic outperformance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>白銀在其自 2008 年以來最大的一天漲幅中上漲超過 12%，創下 $110/盎司以上的新紀錄，隨後回吐了一部分漲幅。這一上漲反映了其作為貴金屬的吸引力和日益緊張的實物條件：庫存仍然較低，租賃費率高企，市場又進入了供應赤字的一年。價格年初至今上漲約 60%，在 2025 年幾乎上漲了 150%。然而，風險依然存在，高價格可能會引發工業需求的破壞，而白銀的過度波動性也保持了市場的高波動性。黃金與白銀的比率現在已降至 50 以下，為 2011 年以來的最低水平，突顯了白銀的顯著超越表現。</p>
</div><p>Gold also extended its rally above $5,100/oz at one stage yesterday. It was supported by Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, a weaker dollar and persistent geopolitical risks. With the central bank buying holding strong and real rates likely heading lower, the medium-term outlook remains favourable. As political uncertainty elevated, from President Trump‑driven policy surprises to a new Fed chair to the US midterm elections later this year, gold should continue to find investor support.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黃金在昨天一度上漲至 $5,100/盎司，延續了其漲勢。受到美聯儲降息預期、美元走弱和持續的地緣政治風險的支持。隨着中央銀行的購買保持強勁，實際利率可能走低，中期展望仍然樂觀。隨着政治不確定性加劇，從特朗普總統推動的政策意外到新的美聯儲主席，再到今年晚些時候的美國中期選舉，黃金應繼續獲得投資者的支持。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>Poland’s December Retail Sales Surge Confirms Strong Consumer Demand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>波蘭 12 月零售銷售激增確認強勁的消費者需求</p>
</div><p>FX Daily: Suspected USD/JPY Intervention Adds To Weak Dollar Moment</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>外匯日報：懷疑的美元/日元干預加劇了美元疲軟的時刻</p>
</div><p>Silver Hits $100/Oz For The First Time</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>白銀首次突破 $100/盎司</p>
</div>

商品動態：美國天然氣價格是否已經達到頂峯？