<p>在過去一週，比特幣回落至約 85,000 美元，上漲動能明顯減弱。</p>
<p>儘管現貨交易量沒有崩潰，但相對安靜。這進一步確認我們目前正處於一個乏味的整合期，尚未到達重大方向性變動的時機。</p>
<h3>比特幣進入整合階段</h3>
<p>隨着 BTC 上週回落至約 85,000 美元，上漲動能明顯減弱，14 天相對強弱指數（RSI）指標也在下滑。</p>
<p>現貨交易量看起來不錯，但實際上非常安靜；每個人都在觀察和等待，猶豫不決，不敢進行大動作。</p>
<p>這通常是一個典型的 “磨蹭市場”（整合期），短期內不太可能出現重大上漲。價格動能（RSI）：代表市場熱情。RSI 從 51.3 降至 42.4（下降 17.3%）。簡單來説，牛市動能顯著減弱。該指標當前的低水平表明市場情緒正在轉向防禦性，沒有人敢於帶頭。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428529_image3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="OWIHNbezlFycNUhWNStMy8gNel0V3zbfls5PpjLB.png" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428529_image3.png"/></p>
<p>價格動能</p>
<ul>
<li>現貨交易量：在此期間實際買賣了多少比特幣？</li>
</ul>
<p>實際買賣比特幣的交易量從 89.8 億美元略微減少至 88.3 億美元。</p>
<p>這個交易量並不是崩潰，但也缺乏興奮，表明市場當前缺乏活躍度。</p>
<h3>大投資者正在撤離</h3>
<p>現貨市場目前看起來相當嚴峻。現貨 CVD 指標急劇轉為負值，確認賣方完全掌控，拋售遠比買入更為激進。</p>
<p>淨資本流動也經歷了劇烈反轉，直接從流入轉為顯著流出。</p>
<p>這表明大型機構資金正在撤出，對近期價格施加了真實壓力。</p>
<ul>
<li>現貨淨交易保證金：該指標反映了買方和賣方誰更為主動。</li>
</ul>
<p>數據從正的 5420 萬美元驟降至負的 1.94 億美元。</p>
<p>這意味着賣方正在拼命拋售其持有的資產，獲得絕對控制權。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428530_image3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="g21f6PXbppkmxn9eBGNdFXktBL8gFejkbtRrVQGD.png" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428530_image3.png"/></p>
<p>現貨交易的淨差價</p>
<ul>
<li>現貨 ETF 資金流動：反映華爾街的 “大資金” 是否在進入或離開市場。</li>
</ul>
<p>之前每週流入 16 億美元，但現在變成每週流出 16 億美元。</p>
<p>這種劇烈反轉表明通過 ETF 進入市場的傳統資金正在撤出，尋求更安全的避風港。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428531_image3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="WfDkNz5aP1KbZuswvU5NKbgjDiaJCX02htkQUwJk.png" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428531_image3.png"/></p>
<p>現貨 ETF 資金流動</p>
<h3>看漲情緒依然強烈</h3>
<p>合約交易者現在意見分歧較大。</p>
<p>期貨未平倉合約的減少表明一些人覺得形勢不利，平倉並減少槓桿。</p>
<p>期貨未平倉合約的減少表明一些人覺得形勢不利，平倉並退出市場，導致槓桿減少。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428532_image3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="Wr9PDbzglKSnpXEk6eqrJgjFxRlecdzfiKcj7mxE.png" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428532_image3.png"/></p>
<p>期貨未平倉合約</p>
<ul>
<li>融資利率：反映市場情緒。</li>
</ul>
<p>買方非常渴望並願意花費大量資金押注反彈。但這通常也是一個危險信號，表明多頭有些過於擁擠，容易成為目標。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428533_image3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="B3WE0OtdHr0dRAO9wlvYDNCTSCE7IaeNBa7O0GYb.png" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428533_image3.png"/></p>
<p>融資利率</p>
<ul>
<li>永續合約淨買/賣差價：在槓桿市場中，做多的是否更為激進，還是做空的更為激進？</li>
</ul>
<p>該指標的急劇下降表明在合約市場中有許多人積極拋售，這是一種非常明顯的分配信號。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428534_image3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="4taBWa4pd4oH1hbcRaSEEBTDh5MTnShUuphLVjeX.png" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428534_image3.png"/></p>
<p>永續合約的淨差價</p>
<h3>期權市場：被迫購買 “保險”</h3>
<p>期權交易者現在極為謹慎。</p>
<p>未平倉合約略有減少，儘管波動率差價有所縮小，但仍然很高（這意味着每個人都認為未來價格將繼續劇烈波動）。</p>
<p>最明顯的跡象是 25 delta 偏斜的急劇上升。該指標的激增通常意味着每個人都在爭相購買看跌期權以尋求保護。簡而言之，大家都害怕下跌，瘋狂購買保險。期權未平倉合約：這反映了市場上當前有多少資金被鎖定。未平倉期權總量略微減少至 329 億美元，表明略微降温。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428535_image3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="ee4MYp2sBg7HF1Ikj0lOOlpfhrtcmpb8LQRNtFbi.png" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428535_image3.png"/></p>
<p>期權未平倉合約</p>
<ul>
<li>波動率差價：衡量市場預期的混亂程度。</li>
</ul>
<p>儘管波動率差價略有下降，但仍處於高位。這表明期權交易者認為市場風險大於表面所顯示的。</p>
<p>波動率差價略有下降，但仍處於高位。這表明期權交易者認為市場風險大於表面所顯示的。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428536_image3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="Thdzw65aTyt7ADDOt2fPEd9bPoPB904Vbdj9tWN2.png" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428536_image3.png"/></p>
<p>波動率差價</p>
<ul>
<li>期權偏差：衡量更多人是購買 “看漲保險” 還是 “看跌保險”。</li>
</ul>
<p>期權偏斜從 5.94% 躍升至 10.77%。這表明當前對 “對沖下跌” 的需求比押注價格大幅上漲更為普遍。市場確實對價格下跌感到擔憂。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428537_image3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="iguecFWquMN57EjP77KiRDojvs8mKS5eV6Qs8txg.png" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428537_image3.png"/></p>
<p>期權偏差</p>
<h3>鏈上活動平靜</h3>
<p>BTC 網絡當前缺乏活動。</p>
<p>活躍地址數量已降至正常水平的下限，交易金額也處於低位，交易費用也有所減少。</p>
<p>這表明人們的轉賬或交易活動不多。如果鏈上沒有擁堵，證明人們的交易慾望不強。</p>
<p>活躍地址：減少了 4.8%，表明參與交易的人數減少。鏈上交易量：減少了 1.5%，反映出網絡經濟活動的疲軟。總交易費用：減少了 12.4%。隨着轉賬的人數減少，交易費用自然降低，反映出市場疲軟。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428538_image3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="Q1vTpJ13dZteGbbrBtmOBPHJqYTKKqOXCiV450Hs.png" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428538_image3.png"/></p>
<p>鏈上活動</p>
<h3>更多人正在止損</h3>
<p>每個人的錢包都在縮水。處於盈利狀態的代幣比例在減少，而實現的損失在增加。</p>
<p>這意味着許多代幣持有者現在處於虧損狀態，或者根本無法承受壓力，已經止損離場。這通常是市場壓力積累的信號。</p>
<p>這意味着許多代幣持有者現在處於虧損狀態，或者已經止損離場。這通常是市場壓力積累的信號。</p>
<ul>
<li>盈利持有比例：反映當前持幣者中盈利的比例。</li>
</ul>
<p>該比例已降至 66.9%。這意味着目前持有的 BTC 中，盈利的比例不足 70%，與之前相比大幅下降。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428539_image3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="gbRzv7MIe8ELeqXOy4ZIKPaGVYyfAMH3dabRe9Bl.png" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428539_image3.png"/></p>
<p>盈利持有比例</p>
<ul>
<li>實現利潤/損失比例：記錄那些實際出售代幣的人平均是盈利還是虧損。</li>
</ul>
<p>盈利持有比例</p>
<ul>
<li>實現利潤/損失比例：記錄那些實際出售代幣的人平均是盈利還是虧損。</li>
</ul>
<p>該指標已轉為負值（-1.0）。簡單來説，在現在市場上出售代幣的人中，虧損的金額（止損）已超過盈利的金額（獲利）。這通常是市場恐慌的早期信號。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428540_image3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="6wVeJRrOioRsiEFt6PafauMHk8wdbmidKlcP8wFu.png" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428540_image3.png"/></p>
<p>實現利潤/損失比例</p>
<h3>總結</h3>
<p>無論是現貨交易、期貨交易，還是鏈上數據，市場都在轉向防禦模式。</p>
<p>雖然高槓杆的情況稍微好一些，但賣方依然激進，大家忙於對沖潛在的價格下跌。這表明市場目前非常脆弱。穩定價格需要新資金進入市場，或者試圖拋售的資金耗盡。</p>

<p>比特幣最近回落至約 85,000 美元，進入了一個整合階段，向上的動能減弱。現貨交易量略有下降，表明市場活動不足。大型投資者正在撤資，導致淨資本流出為負。期貨未平倉合約減少，反映出交易者的謹慎情緒。期權市場對看跌期權的需求增加，顯示出對價格下跌的恐懼。總體而言，市場情緒正向防禦性立場轉變，參與者對進行重大操作持謹慎態度</p>

<p>Over the past week, Bitcoin has pulled back to around $85,000, and the upward momentum has clearly weakened.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去一週，比特幣回落至約 85,000 美元，上漲動能明顯減弱。</p>
</div><p>While spot trading volume hasn't collapsed, it's been relatively quiet. This further confirms that we're currently in a tedious period of consolidation, and it's not yet time for a major directional move.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管現貨交易量沒有崩潰，但相對安靜。這進一步確認我們目前正處於一個乏味的整合期，尚未到達重大方向性變動的時機。</p>
</div><h3>Bitcoin Enters Consolidation Phase</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>比特幣進入整合階段</h3>
</div><p>With BTC falling back to around $85,000 last week, the upward momentum has clearly weakened, as evidenced by the 14-day RSI indicator sliding lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着 BTC 上週回落至約 85,000 美元，上漲動能明顯減弱，14 天相對強弱指數（RSI）指標也在下滑。</p>
</div><p>Spot trading volume looks decent, but it's actually very quiet; everyone is watching and waiting, hesitant to make any big moves.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現貨交易量看起來不錯，但實際上非常安靜；每個人都在觀察和等待，猶豫不決，不敢進行大動作。</p>
</div><p>This is typically a typical &#34;grinding market&#34; (consolidation period), and a major surge is unlikely in the short term. Price Momentum (RSI): Represents market enthusiasm. The RSI, which measures price strength, has slipped from 51.3 to 42.4 (a drop of 17.3%). Simply put, the bullish momentum has weakened considerably. The current low level of this indicator suggests that market sentiment is shifting towards a defensive stance, with no one daring to lead the charge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這通常是一個典型的 “磨蹭市場”（整合期），短期內不太可能出現重大上漲。價格動能（RSI）：代表市場熱情。RSI 從 51.3 降至 42.4（下降 17.3%）。簡單來説，牛市動能顯著減弱。該指標當前的低水平表明市場情緒正在轉向防禦性，沒有人敢於帶頭。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428529_image3.png" alt="OWIHNbezlFycNUhWNStMy8gNel0V3zbfls5PpjLB.png" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428529_image3.png"/></p>
<p>Price Momentum</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>價格動能</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Spot Trading Volume: How much real BTC has been bought and sold during this period?</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>現貨交易量：在此期間實際買賣了多少比特幣？</li>
</ul>
</div><p>The volume of real money buying and selling Bitcoin has slightly decreased from $8.98 billion to $8.83 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>實際買賣比特幣的交易量從 89.8 億美元略微減少至 88.3 億美元。</p>
</div><p>This volume isn't a collapse, but it also lacks excitement, indicating that the market is currently lacking in activity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這個交易量並不是崩潰，但也缺乏興奮，表明市場當前缺乏活躍度。</p>
</div><h3>Large investors are running away</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>大投資者正在撤離</h3>
</div><p>The spot market looks rather grim right now. The spot CVD indicator has turned sharply negative, confirming that sellers are completely in control, with dumping far more aggressively than buying.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現貨市場目前看起來相當嚴峻。現貨 CVD 指標急劇轉為負值，確認賣方完全掌控，拋售遠比買入更為激進。</p>
</div><p>Net capital flow has also undergone a dramatic reversal, going directly from inflow to significant outflow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>淨資本流動也經歷了劇烈反轉，直接從流入轉為顯著流出。</p>
</div><p>This indicates that large institutional funds are withdrawing, putting real pressure on recent prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這表明大型機構資金正在撤出，對近期價格施加了真實壓力。</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Spot net trading margin: This indicator reflects who is more proactive, buyers or sellers.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>現貨淨交易保證金：該指標反映了買方和賣方誰更為主動。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>The data plummeted from a positive $54.2 million to a negative $194 million.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據從正的 5420 萬美元驟降至負的 1.94 億美元。</p>
</div><p>This means that sellers are desperately selling off their holdings, gaining absolute control.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這意味着賣方正在拼命拋售其持有的資產，獲得絕對控制權。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428530_image3.png" alt="g21f6PXbppkmxn9eBGNdFXktBL8gFejkbtRrVQGD.png" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428530_image3.png"/></p>
<p>Net Spread Between Spot Trading</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現貨交易的淨差價</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Spot ETF Fund Flows: Reflecting Whether Wall Street's &#34;Big Money&#34; is Entering or Leaving the Market.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>現貨 ETF 資金流動：反映華爾街的 “大資金” 是否在進入或離開市場。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Previously, there was a weekly inflow of $1.6 billion, but now it has become a weekly outflow of $1.6 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>之前每週流入 16 億美元，但現在變成每週流出 16 億美元。</p>
</div><p>This dramatic reversal indicates that traditional funds entering the market through ETFs are leaving to seek safer havens.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種劇烈反轉表明通過 ETF 進入市場的傳統資金正在撤出，尋求更安全的避風港。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428531_image3.png" alt="WfDkNz5aP1KbZuswvU5NKbgjDiaJCX02htkQUwJk.png" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428531_image3.png"/></p>
<p>Spot ETF Fund Flow</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現貨 ETF 資金流動</p>
</div><h3>Bullish sentiment remains strong</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>看漲情緒依然強烈</h3>
</div><p>Contract traders are quite divided now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>合約交易者現在意見分歧較大。</p>
</div><p>The decrease in futures open interest indicates that some people felt the situation was unfavorable, closed their positions, and reduced leverage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>期貨未平倉合約的減少表明一些人覺得形勢不利，平倉並減少槓桿。</p>
</div><p>The decrease in futures open interest indicates that some people felt the situation was unfavorable, closed their positions, and exited the market, resulting in a decrease in leverage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>期貨未平倉合約的減少表明一些人覺得形勢不利，平倉並退出市場，導致槓桿減少。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428532_image3.png" alt="Wr9PDbzglKSnpXEk6eqrJgjFxRlecdzfiKcj7mxE.png" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428532_image3.png"/></p>
<p>Futures Open Interest</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>期貨未平倉合約</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Funding Rates: Reflect Market Sentiment.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>融資利率：反映市場情緒。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Buyers are very eager and willing to spend a lot of money to bet on a rebound. But this is usually also a danger signal, indicating that the bulls are a bit too crowded and are easy to target.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>買方非常渴望並願意花費大量資金押注反彈。但這通常也是一個危險信號，表明多頭有些過於擁擠，容易成為目標。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428533_image3.png" alt="B3WE0OtdHr0dRAO9wlvYDNCTSCE7IaeNBa7O0GYb.png" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428533_image3.png"/></p>
<p>Funding Rate</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>融資利率</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Perpetual Contract Net Buy/Sell Spread: In a leveraged market, are those who go long more aggressive, or those who go short more aggressive?</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>永續合約淨買/賣差價：在槓桿市場中，做多的是否更為激進，還是做空的更為激進？</li>
</ul>
</div><p>This indicator's sharp drop indicates that there are many people actively dumping shares in the contract market, which is a very obvious sign of distribution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該指標的急劇下降表明在合約市場中有許多人積極拋售，這是一種非常明顯的分配信號。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428534_image3.png" alt="4taBWa4pd4oH1hbcRaSEEBTDh5MTnShUuphLVjeX.png" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428534_image3.png"/></p>
<p>Net Spread of Perpetual Contracts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>永續合約的淨差價</p>
</div><h3>Options Market: Scared into Buying &#34;Insurance&#34;</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>期權市場：被迫購買 “保險”</h3>
</div><p>Options players are now extremely cautious.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>期權交易者現在極為謹慎。</p>
</div><p>Open interest has decreased slightly, and although volatility spreads have narrowed, they remain high (meaning everyone believes prices will continue to fluctuate wildly in the future).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>未平倉合約略有減少，儘管波動率差價有所縮小，但仍然很高（這意味着每個人都認為未來價格將繼續劇烈波動）。</p>
</div><p>The most obvious sign is the sharp rise in the 25-delta skew. A surge in this indicator usually means everyone is rushing to buy put options for protection. In short, everyone is afraid of a drop and is frantically buying insurance. Option open interest: This reflects how much is currently tied up on the market. The total amount of outstanding options has slightly decreased to $32.9 billion, indicating a slight cooling down.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最明顯的跡象是 25 delta 偏斜的急劇上升。該指標的激增通常意味着每個人都在爭相購買看跌期權以尋求保護。簡而言之，大家都害怕下跌，瘋狂購買保險。期權未平倉合約：這反映了市場上當前有多少資金被鎖定。未平倉期權總量略微減少至 329 億美元，表明略微降温。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428535_image3.png" alt="ee4MYp2sBg7HF1Ikj0lOOlpfhrtcmpb8LQRNtFbi.png" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428535_image3.png"/></p>
<p>Option Open Interest</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>期權未平倉合約</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Volatility Spread: Measures the degree of confusion in market expectations.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>波動率差價：衡量市場預期的混亂程度。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Although the volatility spread has decreased slightly, it is still at a high level. This indicates that option traders perceive the market risk to be greater than it appears.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管波動率差價略有下降，但仍處於高位。這表明期權交易者認為市場風險大於表面所顯示的。</p>
</div><p>The volatility spread has decreased slightly, but it is still at a high level. This indicates that option traders perceive the market risk to be greater than it appears.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>波動率差價略有下降，但仍處於高位。這表明期權交易者認為市場風險大於表面所顯示的。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428536_image3.png" alt="Thdzw65aTyt7ADDOt2fPEd9bPoPB904Vbdj9tWN2.png" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428536_image3.png"/></p>
<p>Volatility Spread</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>波動率差價</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Option Bias: Measures whether more people are buying &#34;call insurance&#34; or &#34;put insurance&#34;.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>期權偏差：衡量更多人是購買 “看漲保險” 還是 “看跌保險”。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Option skew jumped from 5.94% to 10.77%. This indicates that the demand for &#34;hedging against a fall&#34; is currently more prevalent than betting on a significant price increase. The market is genuinely worried about prices dropping.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>期權偏斜從 5.94% 躍升至 10.77%。這表明當前對 “對沖下跌” 的需求比押注價格大幅上漲更為普遍。市場確實對價格下跌感到擔憂。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428537_image3.png" alt="iguecFWquMN57EjP77KiRDojvs8mKS5eV6Qs8txg.png" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428537_image3.png"/></p>
<p>Option Bias</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>期權偏差</p>
</div><h3>On-chain Activity is Quiet</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>鏈上活動平靜</h3>
</div><p>The BTC network is currently lacking in activity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BTC 網絡當前缺乏活動。</p>
</div><p>The number of active addresses has fallen below the lower limit of normal levels, transaction amounts are also at a low level, and transaction fees have also decreased.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>活躍地址數量已降至正常水平的下限，交易金額也處於低位，交易費用也有所減少。</p>
</div><p>This indicates that people are not transferring or trading much. If there is no congestion on the chain, it proves that people's desire to trade is not strong.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這表明人們的轉賬或交易活動不多。如果鏈上沒有擁堵，證明人們的交易慾望不強。</p>
</div><p>Active addresses: decreased by 4.8%, indicating fewer people are participating in transactions. On-chain transaction volume: decreased by 1.5%, reflecting weakening economic activity on the network. Total transaction fees: decreased by 12.4%. With fewer people rushing to transfer funds, transaction fees are naturally lower, reflecting a sluggish market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>活躍地址：減少了 4.8%，表明參與交易的人數減少。鏈上交易量：減少了 1.5%，反映出網絡經濟活動的疲軟。總交易費用：減少了 12.4%。隨着轉賬的人數減少，交易費用自然降低，反映出市場疲軟。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428538_image3.png" alt="Q1vTpJ13dZteGbbrBtmOBPHJqYTKKqOXCiV450Hs.png" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428538_image3.png"/></p>
<p>On-chain activity</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鏈上活動</p>
</div><h3>More people are cutting their losses</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>更多人正在止損</h3>
</div><p>Everyone's wallets are shrinking. The proportion of tokens in a profitable state is decreasing, while realized losses are increasing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每個人的錢包都在縮水。處於盈利狀態的代幣比例在減少，而實現的損失在增加。</p>
</div><p>This means that many token holders are now in a loss-making state, or have simply been unable to withstand the pressure and have cut their losses and left the market. This is usually a signal that market pressure is accumulating.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這意味着許多代幣持有者現在處於虧損狀態，或者根本無法承受壓力，已經止損離場。這通常是市場壓力積累的信號。</p>
</div><p>This means that many token holders are now in a loss-making state, or have simply cut their losses and left the market. This is usually a signal that market pressure is accumulating.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這意味着許多代幣持有者現在處於虧損狀態，或者已經止損離場。這通常是市場壓力積累的信號。</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Profitable Holdings Ratio: Reflects the percentage of people currently holding coins who are making money.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>盈利持有比例：反映當前持幣者中盈利的比例。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>The ratio has dropped to 66.9%. This means that less than 70% of BTC holdings are currently profitable, a significant decrease compared to before.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該比例已降至 66.9%。這意味着目前持有的 BTC 中，盈利的比例不足 70%，與之前相比大幅下降。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428539_image3.png" alt="gbRzv7MIe8ELeqXOy4ZIKPaGVYyfAMH3dabRe9Bl.png" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428539_image3.png"/></p>
<p>Profitable Holdings Ratio</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>盈利持有比例</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Realized Profit/Loss Ratio: It records whether those who actually sold their coins made a profit or a loss on average.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>實現利潤/損失比例：記錄那些實際出售代幣的人平均是盈利還是虧損。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Profitable Holdings Ratio</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>盈利持有比例</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Realized Profit/Loss Ratio: It records whether those who actually sold their coins made a profit or a loss on average.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>實現利潤/損失比例：記錄那些實際出售代幣的人平均是盈利還是虧損。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>This indicator has flipped to a negative value (-1.0). Simply put, among those selling coins in the market now, the amount of money lost (cutting losses) has exceeded the amount of money taken profits (making money). This is usually an early sign of market panic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該指標已轉為負值（-1.0）。簡單來説，在現在市場上出售代幣的人中，虧損的金額（止損）已超過盈利的金額（獲利）。這通常是市場恐慌的早期信號。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428540_image3.png" alt="6wVeJRrOioRsiEFt6PafauMHk8wdbmidKlcP8wFu.png" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428540_image3.png"/></p>
<p>Realized Profit/Loss Ratio</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>實現利潤/損失比例</p>
</div><h3>Summary</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>總結</h3>
</div><p>Whether it's spot trading, futures trading, or on-chain data, the market is shifting to a defensive mode.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>無論是現貨交易、期貨交易，還是鏈上數據，市場都在轉向防禦模式。</p>
</div><p>While the situation is slightly better with high leverage, sellers remain aggressive, and everyone is busy hedging against potential price drops. This indicates the market is currently very fragile. Stabilizing prices requires either new funds entering the market or the exhaustion of those trying to dump shares.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然高槓杆的情況稍微好一些，但賣方依然激進，大家忙於對沖潛在的價格下跌。這表明市場目前非常脆弱。穩定價格需要新資金進入市場，或者試圖拋售的資金耗盡。</p>
</div>

Bitcoin enters "grinding mode": Is it time to defend or buy the dip?

- 比特幣回落至 $85,000，顯示上漲動能減弱。
- 現貨交易量略降至 $8.83 億，市場活躍度不足。
- 投資者情緒轉向防禦，市場脆弱，需新資金介入。

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比特幣進入 “磨合模式”：現在是防守還是逢低買入的時機？