<p>本週四家 “七大巨頭” 公司發佈財報，可能會影響市值加權的大型指數。這些結果也可能間接影響小型股。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Table-1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Table-1.png"/></p>
<p>12 月季度的財報季剛剛開始。本週，四家科技巨頭將發佈財報——微軟（MSFT）、特斯拉（TSLA）和 Facebook 母公司 Meta Platforms（META）將在週三發佈，蘋果（AAPL）將在週四發佈。這四家公司合計市值超過 10 萬億美元，因此它們的財報結果至關重要。接下來，谷歌母公司 Alphabet（GOOG）將在下週三公佈財報，亞馬遜（AMZN）將在週四發佈。英偉達（NVDA）要到 2 月 25 日才會公佈其 1 月季度的財報。</p>
<p>在此之前，過去 60 天內這四家公司的共識預期基本保持不變，而在過去 90 天內，AAPL、META 和 MSFT 的預期略有上升（見表 1）。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Chart-1-3-1024x656.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Chart-1-3-1024x656.png"/></p>
<p>本週發佈財報的四家科技巨頭佔 QQQ（Invesco QQQ Trust）超過 21% 的權重；圖 1 中的七家公司——也被稱為 “七大巨頭”——佔據了超過 38% 的權重。這些公司在市場中的主導地位不言而喻。在市值加權的指數中，如納斯達克 100，這些公司自然會產生超出其市值的影響。</p>
<p>因此，所有的焦點都集中在財報發佈後的交易者對股價的反應上。過去兩個月，賣方分析師的預期沒有變化，這可能降低了預期的門檻。這可以被解讀為對多頭有利。另一方面，平穩的預期也可能被視為賣方分析師對在財報發佈前提高預期缺乏信心。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Chart-2-3-1024x654.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Chart-2-3-1024x654.png"/></p>
<p>交易者確實感到困惑，他們已經這樣做了一段時間。納斯達克 100 在 4 月 9 日觸底 16542 點後經歷了驚人的反彈，並在 10 月 29 日達到 26182 點的盤中高點，漲幅高達 58.3%。自那次高點以來，這個以科技股為主的指數一直處於一個對稱三角形中。這個形態通常是中性的，表明買賣雙方勢均力敵。突破可以向上或向下發生。</p>
<p>科技多頭希望當前的整合能夠以向上的突破結束。本週確實以週一的交易開始，指數上漲 0.4%，幫助其突破三角形，但這並不具決定性（見圖 2）。另一方面，空頭則寄希望於 11 月和 12 月的潛在看跌蠟燭；這兩個月都是下跌的，儘管幅度不大，形成了一個吊人線和一個十字星，依次而來。因此，1 月的表現——上漲 1.8%——將具有重要意義。本月還有四個交易日，本週四家科技巨頭的財報結果將影響 1 月的走勢。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Chart-3-3-1024x654.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Chart-3-3-1024x654.png"/></p>
<p>11 月和 12 月的 S&amp;P 500 也出現了類似的蠟燭形態。“七大巨頭” 對大型股指數也有很大影響，佔 SPY（SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF）近 31% 的權重。他們的財報結果在發佈後的反應將是 1 月走勢的關鍵；截至目前，本月上漲 1.5%。</p>
<p>S&amp;P 500 在 4 月 9 日的盤中低點 4835 點與本月 12 日的 6986 點之間上漲了 44.5%，然後在 6920 點附近基本橫盤了 13 周。週一，開盤的前幾分鐘有買盤在 6922 點等待，最終收盤上漲 0.5% 至 6950 點。一個強勁的 1 月應該會對 11 月和 12 月形成的蠟燭——一個吊人線和一個旋轉頂——產生懷疑。但這還沒有發生；因此，本週三和週四的科技財報至關重要。</p>
<p>除了 6920 點的水平阻力外，S&amp;P 500 還處於一個上升楔形中，這種形態通常會向下突破（見圖 3）。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Chart-4-3-1024x656.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Chart-4-3-1024x656.png"/></p>
<p>小型股在 11 月和 12 月也未能逃脱連續的看跌蠟燭，分別形成了一個吊人線和一個流星。這是在 4 月 9 日 Russell 2000 指數觸底 1733 點後，經歷了 57.8% 的上漲，直到上週四的 2735 點。本月上漲了 7.1%，儘管蠟燭上有一點小影線。無論如何，如果多頭能夠保持這些漲幅，這可能會打破空頭的樂觀情緒。</p>
<p>話雖如此，上週在周線圖上形成了一個難看的流星，週四的高點在週五時顯著失去，週五收盤時為 2669 點，周跌幅為 0.3%（見圖 4）。上週的猶豫價格走勢是在 2540 點的乾淨突破後，緊隨其後的是連續的強勁價格走勢；在前一週，2460 點的突破回測是成功的。</p>
<p>上週的流星之後，週一又下跌了 0.4%。</p>
<p>Russell 2000 追蹤的是美國 2000 家最小的公司。本週發佈財報的四家科技公司不在該指數內。但交易者的情緒可能會受到 S&amp;P 500 交易情況的影響。在科技股拋售時，資金也可能流向小型股；這對希望消除 11 月和 12 月蠟燭影響的小型股多頭來説是一個完美的場景。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Chart-5-3-1024x656.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Chart-5-3-1024x656.png"/></p>
<p>與此同時，賣方分析師在提高 2026 年預期時表現出謹慎。截至上週三，這些分析師預計 S&amp;P 600 公司的運營收益為 96.27 美元（見圖 5）。過去六個月的預期保持平穩，期間略有波動。</p>
<p>另一種看法是，賣方在去年二月份對今年的預測過於樂觀，預計為 106.48 美元。這種情況通常會發生。這些分析師一開始持樂觀態度，隨着年份的推移逐漸下調他們的預測。</p>
<p>從這個角度來看，估計值可能還沒有到底。目前，今年的收益預計將超過 44% 的增長，這將跟隨去年近 8% 的預期增長率。對於 2025 年，賣方在 2024 年 5 月的預期為 102.88 美元；在剩下一個季度的收益情況下，2025 年的預期收益為 66.68 美元。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>交易者承諾：非商業頭寸與期貨</p>
<p>保證金債務合作，股權配置創紀錄</p>
<p>CoT：對沖基金的頭寸，通過期貨窺探未來</p>

Meta 財報，一站看懂！

<p>本週，包括微軟、特斯拉、Meta Platforms 和蘋果在內的七大科技公司中的四家公司將發佈財報，這可能會影響大盤指數。它們的總市值超過 10 萬億美元，對納斯達克 100 和標普 500 產生影響。這些公司的共識預期保持穩定，部分公司略有上調。納斯達克 100 經歷了顯著的波動，交易者對未來走勢感到不確定。財報結果將對 1 月份的市場情緒產生重要影響，因為標普 500 和小型股也顯示出混合信號</p>

<p>Four of the Magnificent 7 report this week and carry potential to sway large-cap indices that are weighted by market cap. It is also possible these results will hurt or help small-caps in a roundabout way.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本週四家 “七大巨頭” 公司發佈財報，可能會影響市值加權的大型指數。這些結果也可能間接影響小型股。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Table-1.png" alt="" original-src="https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Table-1.png"/></p>
<p>The December-quarter earnings season just got underway. This week, four tech heavyweights report – Microsoft (MSFT), Tesla (TSLA) and Facebook parent Meta Platforms (META) on Wednesday and Apple (AAPL) on Thursday. Combined, these four sport a market cap of over $10 trillion, so their results will matter. This will be followed next week when Google parent Alphabet (GOOG) will publish its numbers on Wednesday, and Amazon (AMZN) will do so on Thursday. Nvidia (NVDA) does not report its January quarter until February 25.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>12 月季度的財報季剛剛開始。本週，四家科技巨頭將發佈財報——微軟（MSFT）、特斯拉（TSLA）和 Facebook 母公司 Meta Platforms（META）將在週三發佈，蘋果（AAPL）將在週四發佈。這四家公司合計市值超過 10 萬億美元，因此它們的財報結果至關重要。接下來，谷歌母公司 Alphabet（GOOG）將在下週三公佈財報，亞馬遜（AMZN）將在週四發佈。英偉達（NVDA）要到 2 月 25 日才會公佈其 1 月季度的財報。</p>
</div><p>Heading into this, consensus estimates have essentially remained unchanged over the past 60 days for all four, while they have slightly trended higher for AAPL, META and MSFT going out to 90 days (Table 1).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在此之前，過去 60 天內這四家公司的共識預期基本保持不變，而在過去 90 天內，AAPL、META 和 MSFT 的預期略有上升（見表 1）。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Chart-1-3-1024x656.png" alt="" original-src="https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Chart-1-3-1024x656.png"/></p>
<p>The four tech bellwethers reporting this week account for over 21 percent of QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust); the seven in Chart 1 – also known as Magnificent 7 – make up over 38 percent. That is how dominating these companies are. In market cap-weighted indices such as the Nasdaq 100, these entities will naturally have an outsize influence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本週發佈財報的四家科技巨頭佔 QQQ（Invesco QQQ Trust）超過 21% 的權重；圖 1 中的七家公司——也被稱為 “七大巨頭”——佔據了超過 38% 的權重。這些公司在市場中的主導地位不言而喻。在市值加權的指數中，如納斯達克 100，這些公司自然會產生超出其市值的影響。</p>
</div><p>All the focus hence is on post-earnings trader reaction to the share prices. The fact that the sell-side has left their estimates untouched the past two months probably lowers the bar. This can be interpreted as favoring the bulls. The other side of this coin is that the flattish estimates could also be viewed as the sell-side not showing conviction to raise their numbers into the earnings print.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，所有的焦點都集中在財報發佈後的交易者對股價的反應上。過去兩個月，賣方分析師的預期沒有變化，這可能降低了預期的門檻。這可以被解讀為對多頭有利。另一方面，平穩的預期也可能被視為賣方分析師對在財報發佈前提高預期缺乏信心。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Chart-2-3-1024x654.png" alt="" original-src="https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Chart-2-3-1024x654.png"/></p>
<p>Traders are indeed confused, and they have acted this way for a while now. The Nasdaq 100 has had a phenomenal rally when it bottomed on 9 April at 16542 and peaked on 29 October when it reached an intraday high of 26182 – up a massive 58.3 percent. Since that high, the tech-heavy index has been caught in a symmetrical triangle. This pattern tends to be neutral, indicating an equal match between bids and offers. A break can occur in either direction – up or down.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易者確實感到困惑，他們已經這樣做了一段時間。納斯達克 100 在 4 月 9 日觸底 16542 點後經歷了驚人的反彈，並在 10 月 29 日達到 26182 點的盤中高點，漲幅高達 58.3%。自那次高點以來，這個以科技股為主的指數一直處於一個對稱三角形中。這個形態通常是中性的，表明買賣雙方勢均力敵。突破可以向上或向下發生。</p>
</div><p>Tech bulls hope the current consolidation resolves with an upside breakout. This week did indeed begin with Monday’s session in which the index rose 0.4 percent, helping it poke its head out of the triangle, but it was hardly decisive (Chart 2). Bears, on the other hand, are eyeing with lots of hope the potentially bearish candles of November and December; they were down months, albeit nominally, and formed a hanging man and a doji, in that order. How January – up 1.8 percent – fares, therefore, will carry meaning. With four sessions to go this month, the results from the four tech biggies this week can shape how January looks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>科技多頭希望當前的整合能夠以向上的突破結束。本週確實以週一的交易開始，指數上漲 0.4%，幫助其突破三角形，但這並不具決定性（見圖 2）。另一方面，空頭則寄希望於 11 月和 12 月的潛在看跌蠟燭；這兩個月都是下跌的，儘管幅度不大，形成了一個吊人線和一個十字星，依次而來。因此，1 月的表現——上漲 1.8%——將具有重要意義。本月還有四個交易日，本週四家科技巨頭的財報結果將影響 1 月的走勢。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Chart-3-3-1024x654.png" alt="" original-src="https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Chart-3-3-1024x654.png"/></p>
<p>November and December also produced similar candles on the S&amp;P 500. The Magnificent 7 also wield a big influence on the large cap index, accounting for nearly 31 percent of SPY (SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF). What reaction their results will ignite post-earnings will be key as to how January shapes up; the month is up 1.5 percent thus far.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>11 月和 12 月的 S&amp;P 500 也出現了類似的蠟燭形態。“七大巨頭” 對大型股指數也有很大影響，佔 SPY（SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF）近 31% 的權重。他們的財報結果在發佈後的反應將是 1 月走勢的關鍵；截至目前，本月上漲 1.5%。</p>
</div><p>The S&amp;P 500 jumped 44.5 percent between the intraday low of 4835 on 9 April and 6986 printed on the 12th this month, then essentially went sideways around 6920s for 13 weeks. Monday, there were bids waiting at 6922 in the very opening minutes, ending the session up 0.5 percent to 6950. A decisively strong January should cast doubt over the candles November and December produced – a hanging man and a spinning top respectively. But that is yet to happen; hence the importance of tech earnings this Wednesday and Thursday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>S&amp;P 500 在 4 月 9 日的盤中低點 4835 點與本月 12 日的 6986 點之間上漲了 44.5%，然後在 6920 點附近基本橫盤了 13 周。週一，開盤的前幾分鐘有買盤在 6922 點等待，最終收盤上漲 0.5% 至 6950 點。一個強勁的 1 月應該會對 11 月和 12 月形成的蠟燭——一個吊人線和一個旋轉頂——產生懷疑。但這還沒有發生；因此，本週三和週四的科技財報至關重要。</p>
</div><p>Besides the horizontal resistance at 6920s, the S&amp;P 500 is also caught in a rising wedge, which often breaks to the downside (Chart 3).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了 6920 點的水平阻力外，S&amp;P 500 還處於一個上升楔形中，這種形態通常會向下突破（見圖 3）。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Chart-4-3-1024x656.png" alt="" original-src="https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Chart-4-3-1024x656.png"/></p>
<p>Small-caps were not immune from back-to-back bearish-leaning candles in November and December, which respectively produced a hanging man and a shooting star. This followed a 57.8-percent surge from 9 April when the Russell 2000 bottomed at 1733 through last Thursday’s 2735. This month, it has gained 7.1 percent, albeit with a little bit of a wick on the candle. Regardless, if the bulls can hang on to these gains, this would probably have poked a hole in bears’ optimism.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>小型股在 11 月和 12 月也未能逃脱連續的看跌蠟燭，分別形成了一個吊人線和一個流星。這是在 4 月 9 日 Russell 2000 指數觸底 1733 點後，經歷了 57.8% 的上漲，直到上週四的 2735 點。本月上漲了 7.1%，儘管蠟燭上有一點小影線。無論如何，如果多頭能夠保持這些漲幅，這可能會打破空頭的樂觀情緒。</p>
</div><p>With all that said, last week produced an ugly looking shooting star on the weekly, with Thursday’s high meaningfully lost by Friday when the session/week ended at 2669, down 0.3 percent for the week (Chart 4). Last week’s tentative price action comes on the heels of back-to-back strong price action coinciding with a clean breakout at 2540s; in the week before that, breakout retest at 2460s was successful.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>話雖如此，上週在周線圖上形成了一個難看的流星，週四的高點在週五時顯著失去，週五收盤時為 2669 點，周跌幅為 0.3%（見圖 4）。上週的猶豫價格走勢是在 2540 點的乾淨突破後，緊隨其後的是連續的強勁價格走勢；在前一週，2460 點的突破回測是成功的。</p>
</div><p>Last week’s shooting star was followed by a 0.4-percent drop on Monday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上週的流星之後，週一又下跌了 0.4%。</p>
</div><p>The Russell 2000 tracks the 2000 smallest companies in the US. The four tech companies reporting this week are excluded from the index. But trader sentiment can get influenced depending on how the S&amp;P 500 trades. It is equally possible money gravitates toward small-caps in a tech selloff; this is a perfect scenario for small-cap bulls looking to nullify the candles of November and December.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Russell 2000 追蹤的是美國 2000 家最小的公司。本週發佈財報的四家科技公司不在該指數內。但交易者的情緒可能會受到 S&amp;P 500 交易情況的影響。在科技股拋售時，資金也可能流向小型股；這對希望消除 11 月和 12 月蠟燭影響的小型股多頭來説是一個完美的場景。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Chart-5-3-1024x656.png" alt="" original-src="https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Chart-5-3-1024x656.png"/></p>
<p>In the meantime, the sell-side is showing caution in raising their 2026 numbers. As of last Wednesday, these analysts were expecting $96.27 in operating earnings of S&amp;P 600 companies (Chart 5). Estimates are flat over the past six months, with a little fluctuation along the way.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，賣方分析師在提高 2026 年預期時表現出謹慎。截至上週三，這些分析師預計 S&amp;P 600 公司的運營收益為 96.27 美元（見圖 5）。過去六個月的預期保持平穩，期間略有波動。</p>
</div><p>Another way of looking at this is that the sell-side was way optimistic in February last year when they were modeling in $106.48 for this year. This usually happens. These analysts start out optimistic and gradually lower their numbers as the year progresses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一種看法是，賣方在去年二月份對今年的預測過於樂觀，預計為 106.48 美元。這種情況通常會發生。這些分析師一開始持樂觀態度，隨着年份的推移逐漸下調他們的預測。</p>
</div><p>Viewed this way, estimates are likely not done going down. Currently, earnings this year are expected to soar north of 44 percent, which would have followed the expected growth rate of nearly eight percent last year. For 2025, the sell-side in May 2024 was expecting $102.88; with one quarter of earnings remaining, 2025 is on pace to ring up $66.68.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從這個角度來看，估計值可能還沒有到底。目前，今年的收益預計將超過 44% 的增長，這將跟隨去年近 8% 的預期增長率。對於 2025 年，賣方在 2024 年 5 月的預期為 102.88 美元；在剩下一個季度的收益情況下，2025 年的預期收益為 66.68 美元。</p>
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</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>Commitment Of Traders: Noncommercial Positions And Futures</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易者承諾：非商業頭寸與期貨</p>
</div><p>Margin Debt In Cooperation, Equity Allocation At Record</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>保證金債務合作，股權配置創紀錄</p>
</div><p>CoT: How Hedge Funds Are Positioned, Peek Into Future Through Futures</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CoT：對沖基金的頭寸，通過期貨窺探未來</p>
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4 Of Mag 7 Publish Calendar 4Q25 Numbers This Week

- 四家重量級科技公司本週將公佈財報，影響大型股指數。  
- 這些公司合計市值超過 10 萬億美元，結果至關重要。  
- 小盤股可能間接受益或受損，反映市場情緒。

MAG 7 中的四家公司將在本週公佈 2025 年第四季度的財務數據