<p>晚週期經濟被定義為宏觀經濟週期的最後階段，此時經濟活動達到頂峯。該階段的特點是高但放緩的增長、可能影響利潤生成的通貨膨脹上升、緊張的勞動力市場以及利率的波動。</p>
<p>在這種情況下，許多市場參與者正在考慮如何最好地進行多樣化，以應對一個以市場風險加劇和未來企業利潤及經濟增長的不確定性為特徵的環境。由於標普 500®目前高度集中於少數幾個行業和股票，因此應對這些挑戰可能涉及一系列策略——從廣泛的資產配置到更具選擇性的股票挑選。</p>
<p>在這篇博客中，我們將探討標普 500 市場領袖指數作為一種潛在的戰略解決方案。該指數於 2024 年 11 月 11 日推出，跟蹤在標普 500®中被識別為持續高自由現金流利潤率、強投資資本回報率和顯著市場份額的領先公司。</p>
<p>在 2025 年，標普 500 表現強勁，得益於持續的動能。標普 500 市場領袖指數的表現也相較於其基準表現良好。在長期回測期間，標普 500 市場領袖指數交出了強勁的業績，在絕對收益和風險調整後收益方面均超越了標普 500（見圖表 1）。</p>
<p>此外，該指數在大多數市場下行期間歷史上表現優於標普 500，同時顯示出較低的波動性和降低的下行捕捉比率。這種表現尤其在經濟週期的後期階段顯得尤為顯著，此時市場更容易受到壓力事件的影響。</p>
<p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.indexologyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Exhibit-1-Long-and-Short-Term-Performance.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.indexologyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Exhibit-1-Long-and-Short-Term-Performance.png"/></p>
<p>從基本面來看，標普 500 市場領袖指數最類似於傳統的質量策略——跟蹤那些通常表現出更高利潤率、強投資回報和較低槓桿的成分股（見圖表 2）。該策略對更高盈利能力的顯著強調可能使其比其他質量策略更具防禦性，因為最盈利的股票通常具有更大的 “安全邊際”，使其能夠在經濟衝擊或增長放緩時仍保持盈利。</p>
<p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.indexologyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Exhibit-2-The-SP-500-Market-Leaders-Index-Had-Stronger-Quality-Metrics-than-the-SP-500.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.indexologyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Exhibit-2-The-SP-500-Market-Leaders-Index-Had-Stronger-Quality-Metrics-than-the-SP-500.png"/></p>
<p>對高市場份額的關注增強了該指數的整體防禦特性，因為擁有大量市場份額的公司通常受益於競爭優勢，從而在其商業模式周圍建立起防禦性的 “護城河”。防禦性護城河的具體好處可能包括定價權（允許將更高的成本通脹轉嫁到定價上）、較低的採購成本以及利用規模經濟或網絡效應來維持收入，從而使公司在整個商業週期中保持盈利。</p>
<p>質量特徵在某些行業中的共鳴可能比其他行業更強。圖表 3 顯示，歷史上信息技術和消費品行業的超配程度最高。然而，金融行業目前的權重遠高於歷史水平，減少了該行業的低配。</p>
<p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.indexologyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Exhibit-3-The-Impact-of-Sectors.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.indexologyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Exhibit-3-The-Impact-of-Sectors.png"/></p>
<p>標普 500 市場領袖指數包括 7 家傑出公司中的 5 家（不包括亞馬遜或特斯拉）。這些公司分佈在信息技術、消費服務和通信服務領域。這些成分股在指數中的總權重為 22.7%，而標普 500 基準宇宙的權重為 34.9%。</p>
<p>標普 500 市場領袖指數在經濟壓力期間的強勁超越在回測期間得到了實證證明，該指數在所有宏觀經濟環境中均超越了標普 500——尤其是在增長放緩的環境中。</p>
<p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.indexologyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Exhibit-4-Monthly-Excess-Returns-in-Macroeconomic-Environment.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.indexologyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Exhibit-4-Monthly-Excess-Returns-in-Macroeconomic-Environment.png"/></p>
<p>標普 500 市場領袖指數可能為相對於基準宇宙提供多樣化的來源，可能為應對晚週期市場條件提供框架。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>閃耀的不僅僅是黃金：2025 年主題表現回顧</p>
<p>休斯頓，我們有一個指數：探索標普 Kensho 全球太空指數</p>
<p>私人信貸的快速崛起與 BDC 的擴展角色</p>

EGLE

FLAG

標普 500 ETF - Vanguard

標普 500 指數

標普 500 指數股票型基金

標普 500 ETF - iShares

<p>標普 500 市場領袖指數於 2024 年 11 月 11 日推出，旨在應對高增長、通脹上升和市場波動等特徵的晚週期經濟中的挑戰。該指數追蹤自由現金流利潤率高和投資資本回報率強的領先公司。歷史上，該指數在經濟下行期間表現優於標普 500，展現出較低的波動性和防禦性質量策略。它包括七大巨頭中的五家公司，並可能在晚週期市場條件下提供多樣化的好處</p>

<p>The late-cycle economy is defined as the final phase of the macroeconomic cycle when economic activity hits its peak. The period is characterized by high but slowing growth, rising inflation that may affect profit generation, a tight labor market and volatility in interest rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>晚週期經濟被定義為宏觀經濟週期的最後階段，此時經濟活動達到頂峯。該階段的特點是高但放緩的增長、可能影響利潤生成的通貨膨脹上升、緊張的勞動力市場以及利率的波動。</p>
</div><p>Given these conditions, many market participants are considering how best to approach diversification to navigate an environment characterized by heightened market risk and uncertainty around future corporate profits and economic growth. With the S&amp;P 500® currently highly concentrated in a few sectors and stocks, addressing these challenges can involve a range of strategies—from broad asset allocation to more selective stock picking.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這種情況下，許多市場參與者正在考慮如何最好地進行多樣化，以應對一個以市場風險加劇和未來企業利潤及經濟增長的不確定性為特徵的環境。由於標普 500®目前高度集中於少數幾個行業和股票，因此應對這些挑戰可能涉及一系列策略——從廣泛的資產配置到更具選擇性的股票挑選。</p>
</div><p>In this blog, we examine the S&amp;P 500 Market Leaders Index as a potential strategic solution. Launched on Nov. 11, 2024, this index tracks leading companies within The 500® as identified by their consistently high free cash flow margins, strong returns on invested capital and significant market share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這篇博客中，我們將探討標普 500 市場領袖指數作為一種潛在的戰略解決方案。該指數於 2024 年 11 月 11 日推出，跟蹤在標普 500®中被識別為持續高自由現金流利潤率、強投資資本回報率和顯著市場份額的領先公司。</p>
</div><p>In 2025, The 500 recorded strong performance, driven by ongoing momentum. The S&amp;P 500 Market Leaders Index also performed well compared to its benchmark. Over the long-term back-tested period, the S&amp;P 500 Market Leaders Index delivered strong results, outperforming The 500 both in absolute terms and on a risk-adjusted basis (see Exhibit 1).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年，標普 500 表現強勁，得益於持續的動能。標普 500 市場領袖指數的表現也相較於其基準表現良好。在長期回測期間，標普 500 市場領袖指數交出了強勁的業績，在絕對收益和風險調整後收益方面均超越了標普 500（見圖表 1）。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, the index has historically outperformed The 500 during most market downturns while showing lower volatility and a reduced downside capture ratio. This performance can be especially notable in the late stages of the economic cycle, when markets are more prone to stress events.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，該指數在大多數市場下行期間歷史上表現優於標普 500，同時顯示出較低的波動性和降低的下行捕捉比率。這種表現尤其在經濟週期的後期階段顯得尤為顯著，此時市場更容易受到壓力事件的影響。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.indexologyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Exhibit-1-Long-and-Short-Term-Performance.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.indexologyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Exhibit-1-Long-and-Short-Term-Performance.png"/></p>
<p>Fundamentally, the S&amp;P 500 Market Leaders Index is most similar to a traditional quality strategy—tracking constituents that tend to demonstrate higher margins, strong returns on capital and lower leverage (see Exhibit 2). The strategy’s significant emphasis on higher profitability may render it more defensive than other quality strategies because the most profitable stocks typically have a larger “margin of safety,” allowing them to withstand economic shocks or slowing growth while remaining profitable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從基本面來看，標普 500 市場領袖指數最類似於傳統的質量策略——跟蹤那些通常表現出更高利潤率、強投資回報和較低槓桿的成分股（見圖表 2）。該策略對更高盈利能力的顯著強調可能使其比其他質量策略更具防禦性，因為最盈利的股票通常具有更大的 “安全邊際”，使其能夠在經濟衝擊或增長放緩時仍保持盈利。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.indexologyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Exhibit-2-The-SP-500-Market-Leaders-Index-Had-Stronger-Quality-Metrics-than-the-SP-500.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.indexologyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Exhibit-2-The-SP-500-Market-Leaders-Index-Had-Stronger-Quality-Metrics-than-the-SP-500.png"/></p>
<p>The focus on high market share bolsters the index’s overall defensive characteristics, as companies with substantial market share typically benefit from competitive advantages that establish a defensive “moat” around their business models. Tangible benefits of a defensive moat may include pricing power (allowing higher cost inflation to be passed through to pricing), lower sourcing costs and the ability to leverage economies of scale or network effects to sustain revenue, thereby enabling companies to remain profitable throughout the business cycle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對高市場份額的關注增強了該指數的整體防禦特性，因為擁有大量市場份額的公司通常受益於競爭優勢，從而在其商業模式周圍建立起防禦性的 “護城河”。防禦性護城河的具體好處可能包括定價權（允許將更高的成本通脹轉嫁到定價上）、較低的採購成本以及利用規模經濟或網絡效應來維持收入，從而使公司在整個商業週期中保持盈利。</p>
</div><p>Quality characteristics may resonate more in some sectors than others. Exhibit 3 shows that historically the highest overweight has been in the Information Technology and Consumer Staples sectors. However, the current weight in Financials is much higher than it has been historically, reducing the underweight in the sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>質量特徵在某些行業中的共鳴可能比其他行業更強。圖表 3 顯示，歷史上信息技術和消費品行業的超配程度最高。然而，金融行業目前的權重遠高於歷史水平，減少了該行業的低配。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.indexologyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Exhibit-3-The-Impact-of-Sectors.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.indexologyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Exhibit-3-The-Impact-of-Sectors.png"/></p>
<p>The S&amp;P 500 Market Leaders Index includes 5 of the Magnificent 7 companies (it does not contain Amazon or Tesla). These companies are distributed across Information Technology, Consumer Services and Communication Services. The total weight of these constituents in the index is 22.7%, however the S&amp;P 500 benchmark universe holds a 34.9% weight.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>標普 500 市場領袖指數包括 7 家傑出公司中的 5 家（不包括亞馬遜或特斯拉）。這些公司分佈在信息技術、消費服務和通信服務領域。這些成分股在指數中的總權重為 22.7%，而標普 500 基準宇宙的權重為 34.9%。</p>
</div><p>The S&amp;P 500 Market Leaders Index’s strong outperformance in periods of economic stress is empirically demonstrated in the back-tested period, where the index outperformed The 500 across all macroeconomic environments—most significantly in falling growth environments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>標普 500 市場領袖指數在經濟壓力期間的強勁超越在回測期間得到了實證證明，該指數在所有宏觀經濟環境中均超越了標普 500——尤其是在增長放緩的環境中。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.indexologyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Exhibit-4-Monthly-Excess-Returns-in-Macroeconomic-Environment.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.indexologyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Exhibit-4-Monthly-Excess-Returns-in-Macroeconomic-Environment.png"/></p>
<p>The S&amp;P 500 Market Leaders Index may provide a source of diversification relative to the benchmark universe, potentially providing a framework for navigating late-cycle market conditions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>標普 500 市場領袖指數可能為相對於基準宇宙提供多樣化的來源，可能為應對晚週期市場條件提供框架。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>All That Glitters Isn’t Just Gold: 2025 Thematic Performance In Review</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>閃耀的不僅僅是黃金：2025 年主題表現回顧</p>
</div><p>Houston, We Have An Index: Exploring the S&amp;P Kensho Global Space Index</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>休斯頓，我們有一個指數：探索標普 Kensho 全球太空指數</p>
</div><p>The Rapid Rise Of Private Credit And The Expanding Role Of BDCs</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>私人信貸的快速崛起與 BDC 的擴展角色</p>
</div>

Fashionably Late Cycle: The S&P 500 Market Leaders Index

- 文章分析晚週期經濟的特徵及市場風險應對策略。  
- S&P 500 市場領袖指數有助於投資者實現多樣化。  
- 該指數在經濟壓力時期表現強勁，適合當前市場環境。

時尚地遲到的週期：標普 500 市場領導者指數