<p>美國大型銀行報告利潤上升，貸款增加</p>
<p>美聯儲政策制定者手中掌握最新的銀行貸款調查</p>
<p>金融市場押注美聯儲今年晚些時候將進行兩次 25 個基點的降息</p>
<p>作者：安·薩菲爾</p>
<p>1 月 28 日（路透社）- 仍然高企的通脹和雖然有所減弱但尚未崩潰的勞動力市場是美聯儲廣泛預期將在週三結束為期兩天的會議時維持美國政策利率不變的主要原因。</p>
<p>但在邊際上，稍微寬鬆的信貸條件也可能有助於在至少目前的情況下反對降息。</p>
<p>銀行貸款需求的增加在調查和最新一輪銀行財報中顯而易見，這表明借貸成本並未過度限制企業投資或消費者支出。分析師表示，他們預計這一趨勢將持續。</p>
<p>“展望未來，我們預計隨着經濟增長在財政刺激的推動下加快，不確定性減弱，企業和消費者保持強勁的資產負債表，銀行將變得更加願意放貸，” 全國性經濟學家奧倫·克拉赫金表示，並補充説特朗普政府推動的激進放鬆監管也應導致銀行比其他情況下更願意提供信貸。</p>
<p>雖然美聯儲最新的銀行狀況調查要到下週才會公佈，但 1 月份的高級貸款官員意見調查的結果原定於本週交到政策制定者手中。</p>
<p>11 月份的調查顯示，儘管銀行收緊了信貸條款，但企業和住房的貸款需求仍在上升。</p>
<p>達拉斯聯儲的最新調查顯示，德克薩斯州的銀行在 12 月份的貸款和貸款需求繼續上升，其經歷通常與全國貸款機構的整體情況相似。</p>
<p>調查顯示，銀行普遍持樂觀態度，預計上半年貸款需求和商業活動將上升，同時貸款表現略有惡化。</p>
<p>大型銀行高管警告稱，特朗普總統提議的信用卡利率上限為 10% 可能導致貸款減少。儘管如此，華爾街最大的銀行報告稱利潤上升，消費者和企業的借貸增加。</p>
<p>在美國資產規模最大的兩家銀行摩根大通和美國銀行，平均貸款在上個季度分別增長了 9% 和 8%。</p>
<p>“更廣泛的金融條件寬鬆，並逐漸變得更加寬鬆，這將支持今年的經濟增長，” 牛津經濟學分析師邁克爾·皮爾斯表示。</p>
<p>目前金融市場預計在下半年將進行兩次 25 個基點的降息。</p>
<p>最終，美聯儲政策制定者關注其價格穩定和健康勞動力市場的兩個目標，這些指標將在未來幾個月的決策中始終處於核心位置。</p>
<p>“美聯儲對其雙重任務的兩個部分的方向性不確定，因此銀行貸款在更直接評估近期通脹和失業的其他指標面前顯得不那麼重要，” 納蒂克斯經濟學家克里斯托弗·霍奇表示。“增長強勁，失業率良好，通脹高企。為什麼要降息？”</p>

江陰銀行

華寶中證全指證券公司ETF

券商ETF

國泰中證全指證券公司ETF

<p>美聯儲預計將維持美國政策利率，因為銀行貸款和利潤上升，這表明信貸條件並不過於緊縮。分析師預測，隨着經濟增長改善，銀行將增加貸款。儘管對提議的利率上限存在擔憂，但主要銀行報告了更高的利潤和貸款需求。金融市場預計今年晚些時候將進行兩次 25 個基點的降息，但美聯儲仍然關注通脹和勞動力市場的穩定，因此銀行貸款在其決策過程中是次要考慮因素</p>

<p>Big US banks report higher profits, increase in lending</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國大型銀行報告利潤上升，貸款增加</p>
</div><p>Fed policymakers have latest bank lending survey in hand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲政策制定者手中掌握最新的銀行貸款調查</p>
</div><p>Financial markets bet on two quarter-point Fed rate cuts later this year</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>金融市場押注美聯儲今年晚些時候將進行兩次 25 個基點的降息</p>
</div><p>By Ann Saphir</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：安·薩菲爾</p>
</div><p>Jan 28 (Reuters) - Still-elevated inflation and a labor market that has weakened but not collapsed are the main reasons the Federal Reserve is widely expected to wrap up its two-day meeting Wednesday with a hold on the U.S. policy rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1 月 28 日（路透社）- 仍然高企的通脹和雖然有所減弱但尚未崩潰的勞動力市場是美聯儲廣泛預期將在週三結束為期兩天的會議時維持美國政策利率不變的主要原因。</p>
</div><p>But on the margin, somewhat easier credit conditions may also help make the case against cutting interest rates, at least for now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在邊際上，稍微寬鬆的信貸條件也可能有助於在至少目前的情況下反對降息。</p>
</div><p>Increased demand for bank loans, evident in surveys and in the latest round of bank earnings reports, suggests that borrowing costs are not overly constraining businesses from investing or consumers from spending. Analysts say they anticipate that trend will continue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>銀行貸款需求的增加在調查和最新一輪銀行財報中顯而易見，這表明借貸成本並未過度限制企業投資或消費者支出。分析師表示，他們預計這一趨勢將持續。</p>
</div><p>“Looking ahead, we expect banks will become more willing to lend as economic growth picks up on the back of fiscal stimulus, uncertainty diminishes and businesses and consumers maintain strong balance sheets,” said Nationwide economist Oren Klachkin, adding that aggressive deregulation pushed by the Trump administration should also lead banks to extend more credit than otherwise.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“展望未來，我們預計隨着經濟增長在財政刺激的推動下加快，不確定性減弱，企業和消費者保持強勁的資產負債表，銀行將變得更加願意放貸，” 全國性經濟學家奧倫·克拉赫金表示，並補充説特朗普政府推動的激進放鬆監管也應導致銀行比其他情況下更願意提供信貸。</p>
</div><p>While the Fed’s latest survey on banking conditions won’t be published until next week, findings from the January Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey were scheduled to be in policymakers’ hands this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然美聯儲最新的銀行狀況調查要到下週才會公佈，但 1 月份的高級貸款官員意見調查的結果原定於本週交到政策制定者手中。</p>
</div><p>November’s survey showed rising loan demand, particularly from businesses and for homes, even as banks tightened credit terms.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>11 月份的調查顯示，儘管銀行收緊了信貸條款，但企業和住房的貸款需求仍在上升。</p>
</div><p>A more recent survey from the Dallas Fed showed lending and demand for loans continued to rise in December at Texas banks, whose experiences often mirror those of the nation’s lenders as a whole.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>達拉斯聯儲的最新調查顯示，德克薩斯州的銀行在 12 月份的貸款和貸款需求繼續上升，其經歷通常與全國貸款機構的整體情況相似。</p>
</div><p>Banks were generally optimistic, the survey showed, expecting rising loan demand and business activity in the first half of the year, along with a slight deterioration in loan performance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>調查顯示，銀行普遍持樂觀態度，預計上半年貸款需求和商業活動將上升，同時貸款表現略有惡化。</p>
</div><p>Big bank executives have warned that President Donald Trump’s proposed 10% cap on credit card interest rates could result in a pullback in lending. Even so, Wall Street’s biggest banks reported rising profits and increased borrowing from both consumers and businesses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大型銀行高管警告稱，特朗普總統提議的信用卡利率上限為 10% 可能導致貸款減少。儘管如此，華爾街最大的銀行報告稱利潤上升，消費者和企業的借貸增加。</p>
</div><p>Average loans climbed 9% last quarter at JPMorgan Chase and 8% at Bank of America, the top two U.S. banks by assets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美國資產規模最大的兩家銀行摩根大通和美國銀行，平均貸款在上個季度分別增長了 9% 和 8%。</p>
</div><p>“Broader financial conditions are loose and getting gradually looser, which will support economic growth this year,” said Oxford Economics analyst Michael Pearce.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“更廣泛的金融條件寬鬆，並逐漸變得更加寬鬆，這將支持今年的經濟增長，” 牛津經濟學分析師邁克爾·皮爾斯表示。</p>
</div><p>For now financial markets are pricing two quarter-point interest-rate cuts in the second half of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前金融市場預計在下半年將進行兩次 25 個基點的降息。</p>
</div><p>Ultimately, Fed policymakers are focused on their two goals of price stability and a healthy labor market, and those metrics will remain front and center as they weigh what to do in coming months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最終，美聯儲政策制定者關注其價格穩定和健康勞動力市場的兩個目標，這些指標將在未來幾個月的決策中始終處於核心位置。</p>
</div><p>“The Fed is uncertain about the directionality of both parts of its dual mandate so bank lending takes a back seat to other indicators that more directly assess near-term inflation and joblessness,” said Natixis’ economist Christopher Hodge. “Growth is strong, the unemployment rate is fine, and inflation is high. Why cut?”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“美聯儲對其雙重任務的兩個部分的方向性不確定，因此銀行貸款在更直接評估近期通脹和失業的其他指標面前顯得不那麼重要，” 納蒂克斯經濟學家克里斯托弗·霍奇表示。“增長強勁，失業率良好，通脹高企。為什麼要降息？”</p>
</div>

For Fed, uptick in bank lending may add to case against rate cuts

- 美國大型銀行報告利潤上升，貸款需求增加。  
- 美聯儲將維持利率不變，金融市場預計將降息兩次。  
- 銀行對未來貸款需求持樂觀態度，經濟增長預期上升。

對於美聯儲而言，銀行貸款的增長可能會加強反對降息的理由