<p>作者：Tiezhu Ge，來源：X,@TiezhuCrypto</p>
<p>現代社會中最基本和隱含的組織與協調機制不是金錢本身，而是債務 - 債權關係的持續延伸。</p>
<p>無論是國家、社區、組織還是個人，他們本質上都在進行一個重複的動作：用未來交換現在。</p>
<p>我們理所當然認為的經濟增長和消費繁榮，並不是財富憑空而來，而是源於一種高度制度化的共識，即未來可以提前分配。債務恰恰是實現這一共識的技術手段。</p>
<p>從這個角度來看，更根本的核心在於：誰更有能力將未來折現為現在，誰有權力定義未來。從這個意義上説，貨幣的創造和收縮僅僅是一個負債累累的世界的表現。金融的魔力實際上只有一件事：資源的跨時間交換。I. 從債務的角度理解黃金和美元 如果你將債務置於世界運作的中心，黃金和美元的角色立刻變得清晰。美元不是一種貨幣；它是債務協調和定價的工具。美國的債務不僅僅是美國自身的負債。放在全球資產負債表中，美元體系是：美國出口其未來的承諾，而世界提供吸收當前債務的能力。雙方以美元作為合同，達成了人類歷史上最大的跨時間交易。黃金的獨特性在於它是唯一一種不受任何負債支持的金融資產。它不需要任何人的背書或承諾；它是最終的償還。從資產負債表的角度來看，黃金是唯一沒有對手方的資產。這正是為什麼當債務體系運作良好時，黃金常常顯得低效、無利可圖且缺乏增長潛力；然而，當人們開始懷疑未來是否能夠成功贖回時，它的價值會被重新評估。有些人説黃金是對抗地緣政治風險的避風港。但如果繼續從資產負債表的角度分析，這一説法是不完整的。地緣政治並不會直接摧毀財富；真正削弱的是債務關係的穩定性。II. 避風港：尋找健康的資產負債表 理解上述邏輯……很明顯，如果你將世界視為一個不斷擴張的資產負債表，那麼所謂的對沖並不是尋找一個單一的、永遠安全的資產，而是尋找在不同階段健康和可持續的資產負債表結構。最根本的風險不是波動，而是債務結構的不平衡。因此，如果我們觀察最近的市場趨勢，伴隨美元貶值和日元劇烈波動的是什麼？是像瑞士這樣資產負債表相對健康的國家的法定貨幣的快速升值。如果進一步延伸，為什麼白銀在上漲，其他商品也在上漲？從更廣泛的宏觀角度來看，目前唯一影響債務 - 債權人關係的基本變量是人工智能。人工智能不僅僅是一個行業；在我看來，它的根本性質在於其重塑資產負債表的能力。一方面，它以指數級降低人類的效率成本，使軟件更便宜，替代勞動力，並將信息處理成本降至接近零。另一方面，它在現實世界中創造了前所未有的剛性資本需求，使計算能力、電力、土地、能源和礦產成為最強大的現實約束。這兩種力量同時影響着全球資產負債表：效率變得更輕，而資本變得更重。這是當前債務體系重組的根本所在。換句話説，任何可以數字化、邏輯化和自動化的工作，其成本都被降低到零。軟件、文案、設計和基礎代碼——曾經昂貴的知識資產——正變得像自來水一樣便宜。一切都有價格。每個代幣的生成都涉及計算芯片的燃燒、電力的消耗和銅纜的傳輸。人工智能越智能，它對物質世界的需求就越貪婪。在過去幾十年中，全球增長在很大程度上依賴於金融工程：信貸擴張、槓桿滾動和預期管理。未來可以不斷折現，使債務看起來輕鬆可控。但當增長被重新綁定到計算能力、電力、資源和生產能力等無形變量時，債務不再僅僅是數字遊戲。從這個角度來看，如果你觀察白銀和商品，市場所定價的是對未來生產能力約束的預定價。因此，當增長被物理約束鎖定時，債務的魔力就會失效。因為無論你注入多少貨幣，如果沒有足夠的銅來建設電網，沒有足夠的白銀來製造面板，人工智能的計算能力就無法運行。III. 美元的終結是否到來了？沒有什麼是永久的，包括黃金。理解債務世界的運作需要接受一個不太愉快的結論：黃金也不是永久的解決方案。目前的價格上漲僅僅反映了沒有對手方的資產的稀缺性。然而，黃金無法產生現金流、提高生產力或替代真實的資本形成。從資產負債表的角度來看，它本質上是暫時凍結風險。回到美元，為什麼儘管市場悲觀，它仍然存在？因為你需要世界上最深的資產池作為抵押、結算和對沖；你持有美國國債不僅僅是因為你信任美國，而是因為你需要一個被全球金融體系認可並隨時可用於抵押融資的資產。美元的強大不在於其金融的正確性，而在於其不可替代的網絡效應。它目前是人類文明中唯一能夠支持數萬億美元債務的容器。幾十年來，美元體系的核心能力一直是將未來折現為現在：美國發行債務，世界支付賬單；美國消費推動全球供應——本質上是時間價值的全球再分配。然而，隨着美國財政路徑越來越依賴於持續的資產負債表擴張和債務滾動，美元的信譽經歷了微妙的變化：它仍然是最佳選擇，但不再是免費的，機會成本顯著上升。但致命的缺陷並不在於這些因素，而在於隨着增長越來越依賴於電力、計算能力、資源和生產能力，金融體系在利用預期、槓桿和折現率將未來人為轉移到現在的專業知識將受到物理世界的硬性現實的制約。所謂的格林蘭、關税和製造業回流本質上都是圍繞這一硬約束進行的遊戲。換句話説，美國必須首先完成人工智能基礎設施的重塑，使美元成為購買世界上最強大的計算能力和最高效生產力的唯一憑證。這是美元恢復往日輝煌的必要條件。否則，在物理約束和人工智能重新定義全球分工的背景下，美元體系將逐漸失去折現未來的能力，逐漸走向末日時代。相對緩慢但不可逆轉的衰退將發生，直到一個更好地代表真實生產力和技術主導地位的貨幣錨出現以取代它。</p>

<p>Tiezhu Ge 的文章討論了債務在現代社會中的作用，強調經濟增長是由債務 - 債權人關係驅動的，而非財富創造。文章指出美元是債務協調的工具，而黃金則是一種沒有負債的獨特資產。作者認為，健康的資產負債表結構對穩定至關重要，最近的市場趨勢反映了受人工智能影響的債務結構的變化。文章最後得出結論，隨着增長受到物理資源的限制，債務的動態將發生顯著變化</p>

<p>Author: Tiezhu Ge on CRYPTO; Source: X,@TiezhuCrypto</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Tiezhu Ge，來源：X,@TiezhuCrypto</p>
</div><p>The most fundamental and implicit organizational and coordination mechanism in modern society is not money itself, but the continuous extension of debt-creditor relationships.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現代社會中最基本和隱含的組織與協調機制不是金錢本身，而是債務 - 債權關係的持續延伸。</p>
</div><p>Whether it is a nation, a community, an organization, or an individual, they are essentially doing a repetitive action: exchanging the future for the present.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>無論是國家、社區、組織還是個人，他們本質上都在進行一個重複的動作：用未來交換現在。</p>
</div><p>The economic growth and consumer boom we take for granted do not stem from wealth appearing out of thin air, but from a highly institutionalized consensus that the future can be allocated in advance. Debt is precisely the technical means of realizing this consensus.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們理所當然認為的經濟增長和消費繁榮，並不是財富憑空而來，而是源於一種高度制度化的共識，即未來可以提前分配。債務恰恰是實現這一共識的技術手段。</p>
</div><p>From this perspective, a more fundamental core lies in: who has the greater ability to discount the future to the present, and who has the power to define the future. In this sense, the creation and contraction of money are merely expressions of a debt-ridden world. The magic of finance is actually only one thing: the intertemporal exchange of resources. I. Understanding Gold and the Dollar from a Debt Perspective If you place debt at the center of the world's operation, the roles of gold and the dollar immediately become clear. The dollar is not a currency; it is a tool for debt coordination and pricing. US debt is not simply a liability of the United States itself. Placed within the global balance sheet, the dollar system is: the United States exports its future promises, and the world provides the capacity to absorb present debt. Both sides, using the dollar as a contract, have reached the largest intertemporal transaction in human history. Gold's uniqueness lies in the fact that it is the only financial asset that is not backed by any liabilities. It requires no endorsement or promise from anyone; it is the ultimate repayment. From a balance sheet perspective, gold is the only asset without a counterparty. This is precisely why gold often appears inefficient, unprofitable, and lacking in growth potential when the debt system is functioning well; however, its value is re-evaluated when people begin to doubt whether it can be successfully redeemed in the future. Some say that gold is a safe haven against geopolitical risks. But if you continue to analyze it using balance sheets, this statement is incomplete. Geopolitics does not directly destroy wealth; what it truly undermines is the stability of debt relationships. II. Safe Haven: Finding a Healthy Balance Sheet Understanding the above logic... It becomes clear that if you understand the world as an ever-expanding balance sheet, then so-called hedging isn't about finding a single, perpetually safe asset, but rather about finding a healthy and sustainable balance sheet structure at different stages. The most fundamental risk isn't volatility, but rather the imbalance in debt structure. Therefore, if we observe recent market trends, what accompanies the depreciation of the US dollar and the huge fluctuations in the Japanese yen? It's the rapid appreciation of the fiat currencies of countries with relatively healthy balance sheets, like Switzerland. If we extend this further, why is silver rising, and why are other commodities rising? Looking at it from a broader macro perspective, the only fundamental variable currently influencing debt-creditor relationships is AI. AI is not simply an industry; in my view, its fundamental nature lies in its ability to reshape balance sheets. On one hand, it exponentially reduces human efficiency costs, making software cheaper, replacing labor, and bringing information processing to near-zero cost. On the other hand, it creates unprecedented rigid capital demands in the real world, making computing power, electricity, land, energy, and minerals the most powerful real-world constraints. These two forces are simultaneously impacting global balance sheets: efficiency is becoming lighter, while capital is becoming heavier. This is fundamental to the current debt system restructuring. In other words, any work that can be digitized, logicalized, and automated has its costs reduced to zero. Software, copywriting, design, and basic code—once expensive intellectual assets—are becoming as cheap as tap water. Everything has a price. The generation of each token involves the burning of computing chips, the consumption of electricity, and the transmission of copper cables. The more intelligent AI becomes, the more greedy it demands from the physical world. In the past few decades, global growth has relied heavily on financial engineering: credit expansion, leverage rollover, and expectation management. The future can be continuously discounted, making debt seem light and controllable. But when growth is re-bound to intangible variables like computing power, electricity, resources, and production capacity, debt is no longer just a numbers game. From this perspective, if you look at silver and commodities, what the market is pricing is a pre-pricing of future production capacity constraints. Therefore, when growth is locked in by physical constraints, the magic of debt fails. Because no matter how much currency you inject, without enough copper to build the power grid and enough silver to manufacture panels, AI's computing power cannot run. III. Has the end of the dollar arrived? Nothing is permanent, including gold. Understanding the workings of the debt world necessitates accepting a less-than-pleasant conclusion: gold is not a permanent solution either. The current price increase is merely a reflection of the scarcity of assets with no counterparty. However, gold cannot generate cash flow, improve productivity, or replace real capital formation. From a balance sheet perspective, it's essentially freezing risk temporarily. Returning to the US dollar, why does it still exist despite market pessimism? Because you need the world's deepest pool of assets for collateral, settlement, and hedging; you hold US Treasury bonds not just because you trust the US, but because you need an asset recognized by the global financial system and readily available for collateralized financing. The strength of the US dollar lies not in its financial correctness, but in its irreplaceable network effect. It is currently the only container in human civilization capable of supporting trillions of dollars in debt. For decades, the core capability of the dollar system has been to discount the future to the present: the US issues debt, and the world pays the bill; US consumption drives global supply—essentially a global redistribution of time value. However, as the US fiscal path increasingly relies on continuous balance sheet expansion and debt rollover, the dollar's credibility undergoes a subtle shift: it remains the best option, but no longer a free one, with opportunity costs rising significantly. But the fatal flaw isn't these factors, but rather the fact that as growth increasingly depends on electricity, computing power, resources, and production capacity, the financial system's expertise in using expectations, leverage, and discount rates to artificially transfer the future to the present will be constrained by the hard realities of the physical world. The so-called Greenland, tariffs, and manufacturing reshoring are all essentially games revolving around this hard constraint. In other words, the US must first complete the reshaping of AI infrastructure, making the dollar the sole credential for purchasing the world's strongest computing power and most efficient productivity. This is the necessary condition for the dollar's return to its former glory. Otherwise, against the backdrop of physical constraints and AI redefining the global division of labor, the dollar system will gradually lose its ability to discount the future, gradually heading towards an end-of-days era. A slow but irreversible relative decline will occur until a monetary anchor that better represents real productivity and technological dominance emerges to replace it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從這個角度來看，更根本的核心在於：誰更有能力將未來折現為現在，誰有權力定義未來。從這個意義上説，貨幣的創造和收縮僅僅是一個負債累累的世界的表現。金融的魔力實際上只有一件事：資源的跨時間交換。I. 從債務的角度理解黃金和美元 如果你將債務置於世界運作的中心，黃金和美元的角色立刻變得清晰。美元不是一種貨幣；它是債務協調和定價的工具。美國的債務不僅僅是美國自身的負債。放在全球資產負債表中，美元體系是：美國出口其未來的承諾，而世界提供吸收當前債務的能力。雙方以美元作為合同，達成了人類歷史上最大的跨時間交易。黃金的獨特性在於它是唯一一種不受任何負債支持的金融資產。它不需要任何人的背書或承諾；它是最終的償還。從資產負債表的角度來看，黃金是唯一沒有對手方的資產。這正是為什麼當債務體系運作良好時，黃金常常顯得低效、無利可圖且缺乏增長潛力；然而，當人們開始懷疑未來是否能夠成功贖回時，它的價值會被重新評估。有些人説黃金是對抗地緣政治風險的避風港。但如果繼續從資產負債表的角度分析，這一説法是不完整的。地緣政治並不會直接摧毀財富；真正削弱的是債務關係的穩定性。II. 避風港：尋找健康的資產負債表 理解上述邏輯……很明顯，如果你將世界視為一個不斷擴張的資產負債表，那麼所謂的對沖並不是尋找一個單一的、永遠安全的資產，而是尋找在不同階段健康和可持續的資產負債表結構。最根本的風險不是波動，而是債務結構的不平衡。因此，如果我們觀察最近的市場趨勢，伴隨美元貶值和日元劇烈波動的是什麼？是像瑞士這樣資產負債表相對健康的國家的法定貨幣的快速升值。如果進一步延伸，為什麼白銀在上漲，其他商品也在上漲？從更廣泛的宏觀角度來看，目前唯一影響債務 - 債權人關係的基本變量是人工智能。人工智能不僅僅是一個行業；在我看來，它的根本性質在於其重塑資產負債表的能力。一方面，它以指數級降低人類的效率成本，使軟件更便宜，替代勞動力，並將信息處理成本降至接近零。另一方面，它在現實世界中創造了前所未有的剛性資本需求，使計算能力、電力、土地、能源和礦產成為最強大的現實約束。這兩種力量同時影響着全球資產負債表：效率變得更輕，而資本變得更重。這是當前債務體系重組的根本所在。換句話説，任何可以數字化、邏輯化和自動化的工作，其成本都被降低到零。軟件、文案、設計和基礎代碼——曾經昂貴的知識資產——正變得像自來水一樣便宜。一切都有價格。每個代幣的生成都涉及計算芯片的燃燒、電力的消耗和銅纜的傳輸。人工智能越智能，它對物質世界的需求就越貪婪。在過去幾十年中，全球增長在很大程度上依賴於金融工程：信貸擴張、槓桿滾動和預期管理。未來可以不斷折現，使債務看起來輕鬆可控。但當增長被重新綁定到計算能力、電力、資源和生產能力等無形變量時，債務不再僅僅是數字遊戲。從這個角度來看，如果你觀察白銀和商品，市場所定價的是對未來生產能力約束的預定價。因此，當增長被物理約束鎖定時，債務的魔力就會失效。因為無論你注入多少貨幣，如果沒有足夠的銅來建設電網，沒有足夠的白銀來製造面板，人工智能的計算能力就無法運行。III. 美元的終結是否到來了？沒有什麼是永久的，包括黃金。理解債務世界的運作需要接受一個不太愉快的結論：黃金也不是永久的解決方案。目前的價格上漲僅僅反映了沒有對手方的資產的稀缺性。然而，黃金無法產生現金流、提高生產力或替代真實的資本形成。從資產負債表的角度來看，它本質上是暫時凍結風險。回到美元，為什麼儘管市場悲觀，它仍然存在？因為你需要世界上最深的資產池作為抵押、結算和對沖；你持有美國國債不僅僅是因為你信任美國，而是因為你需要一個被全球金融體系認可並隨時可用於抵押融資的資產。美元的強大不在於其金融的正確性，而在於其不可替代的網絡效應。它目前是人類文明中唯一能夠支持數萬億美元債務的容器。幾十年來，美元體系的核心能力一直是將未來折現為現在：美國發行債務，世界支付賬單；美國消費推動全球供應——本質上是時間價值的全球再分配。然而，隨着美國財政路徑越來越依賴於持續的資產負債表擴張和債務滾動，美元的信譽經歷了微妙的變化：它仍然是最佳選擇，但不再是免費的，機會成本顯著上升。但致命的缺陷並不在於這些因素，而在於隨着增長越來越依賴於電力、計算能力、資源和生產能力，金融體系在利用預期、槓桿和折現率將未來人為轉移到現在的專業知識將受到物理世界的硬性現實的制約。所謂的格林蘭、關税和製造業回流本質上都是圍繞這一硬約束進行的遊戲。換句話説，美國必須首先完成人工智能基礎設施的重塑，使美元成為購買世界上最強大的計算能力和最高效生產力的唯一憑證。這是美元恢復往日輝煌的必要條件。否則，在物理約束和人工智能重新定義全球分工的背景下，美元體系將逐漸失去折現未來的能力，逐漸走向末日時代。相對緩慢但不可逆轉的衰退將發生，直到一個更好地代表真實生產力和技術主導地位的貨幣錨出現以取代它。</p>
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黃金、美元與債務的世界：資產負債表的重新評估