<p>1 月 29 日（路透社）- Wayne Cole 對歐洲和全球市場的前景進行了展望。</p>
<p>誰知道構建人工智能會花費這麼多。微軟（MSFT.O）和 Meta（META.O）的結果顯示，資本支出確實達到了令人震驚的金額，前者在這一季度花費了近 380 億美元，比去年增長了三分之二。Meta 將今年的資本支出計劃提高了 73%，範圍在 1150 億到 1350 億美元之間。</p>
<p>然而，投資者對這些計劃的反應截然不同，微軟的市值蒸發了 2400 億美元，而 Meta 則上漲了 1400 億美元。微軟的下跌幅度超過了花旗集團的整體市值，但銀行業已經是上個世紀的事情了。</p>
<p>看來 Meta 對其盈利前景的上調確實讓投資者感到驚喜，而位於雷德蒙德的巨頭則在努力安撫人們對成本最終會超過利潤增長的擔憂。</p>
<p>不過，一家公司的成本正是另一家公司的收入，正如芯片製造商三星電子（005930.KS）營業利潤的三倍增長所示。內存芯片曾經是市場上一個無聊的部分，直到供不應求。</p>
<p>週三的美聯儲會議也被稱為無聊，儘管主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾在新聞發佈會上顯得相當愉快。他多次表示，經濟處於 “穩固的基礎” 上，前景 “明顯改善”。</p>
<p>委員會對維持利率穩定有 “廣泛支持”，當然除了兩位投票支持降息的成員。</p>
<p>他補充説，美聯儲已經在利率上做了很多 “正常化”，政策現在只是 “有些限制”，甚至是 “鬆散中性”。市場將此視為確認 4 月降息的可能性已被排除，6 月降息的可能性保持在 61%，部分原因是投資者假設特朗普總統到時會找到一個更温和的接替者。</p>
<p>不過，鮑威爾並沒有被問及他是否會在 5 月辭去美聯儲理事職務，或者一直待到 2028 年。一位記者想知道，考慮到對美聯儲獨立性的威脅，他為什麼會想要離開，但鮑威爾只是微笑。</p>
<p>在貨幣方面，儘管財政部長貝森特堅稱美國仍然有 “強勢美元” 政策，但美元看起來仍然脆弱，無論特朗普怎麼説。</p>
<p>更有意義的可能是歐盟和歐洲央行官員關於歐元對美元的升值對出口有害以及對通脹構成下行風險的低語。</p>
<p>歐洲央行似乎不太可能實際干預，但瑞士央行更有經驗，逃離美元的趨勢正在推動瑞士法郎普遍上漲，包括對歐元的匯率。</p>
<p>事實上，瑞士法郎（EURCHF=）已經突破了巨大的圖表支撐，這讓瑞士人感到擔憂。瑞士國家銀行的干預可能會對市場造成混亂，因為它通常會用法郎換取歐元，然後將部分歐元分散到美元、英鎊等貨幣中，導致多種貨幣之間的交叉流動。</p>
<p>可能影響週四市場的關鍵發展：</p>
<ul>
<li>歐元區消費者信心，1 月份商業信心</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>瑞典央行政策會議，歐洲央行董事會成員皮耶羅·奇波隆尼發言</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>美國 11 月貿易數據，周度失業救濟申請</li>
</ul>
<p>大型市值市場</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/gdpzjlqrqpw/Pasted%20image%201769526356764.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="858" height="652" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/gdpzjlqrqpw/Pasted%20image%201769526356764.png"/></p>
<p>科技困境</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/TECH/gdvzjlqyqvw/chart.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1420" height="934" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/TECH/gdvzjlqyqvw/chart.png"/></p>
<p>科技盈利引領潮流</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/49Zb3ma?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1420" height="812" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/49Zb3ma"/></p>
<p>（作者：Wayne Cole；編輯：Sonali Paul）</p>

Meta 財報，一站看懂！

<p>這篇文章討論了微軟和 Meta 在人工智能開發方面的重大資本支出，其中微軟的支出接近 380 億美元，而 Meta 則將其支出計劃增加了 73%。儘管 Meta 的積極盈利前景使其市場價值提升了 1400 億美元，但由於對成本管理的擔憂，微軟的市場價值卻下降了 2400 億美元。文章還強調了美聯儲即將召開的會議，主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾對經濟表示信心。此外，還提到了貨幣波動和中央銀行可能的干預，特別是關於歐元和瑞士法郎的情況</p>

<p>Jan 29 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1 月 29 日（路透社）- Wayne Cole 對歐洲和全球市場的前景進行了展望。</p>
</div><p>Who knew building AI would cost so much. Results from Microsoft (MSFT.O) and Meta (META.O) showed truly nose-bleeding amounts being spent on capex, with the former splashing out almost $38 billion in the quarter, up two-thirds on the previous year. Meta boosted its capital spending plans for this year by 73% to a range between $115 billion and $135 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>誰知道構建人工智能會花費這麼多。微軟（MSFT.O）和 Meta（META.O）的結果顯示，資本支出確實達到了令人震驚的金額，前者在這一季度花費了近 380 億美元，比去年增長了三分之二。Meta 將今年的資本支出計劃提高了 73%，範圍在 1150 億到 1350 億美元之間。</p>
</div><p>Yet investors reacted very differently to those plans, knocking $240 billion off Microsoft’s market value while lifting Meta by $140 billion. The Microsoft drop was more than the entire capitalisation of Citigroup, but then banks are so last-century.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，投資者對這些計劃的反應截然不同，微軟的市值蒸發了 2400 億美元，而 Meta 則上漲了 1400 億美元。微軟的下跌幅度超過了花旗集團的整體市值，但銀行業已經是上個世紀的事情了。</p>
</div><p>Seems Meta’s upgrade to its earnings outlook really wowed investors, while the Redmond-based giant struggled to placate concerns that costs would ultimately outstrip profit growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>看來 Meta 對其盈利前景的上調確實讓投資者感到驚喜，而位於雷德蒙德的巨頭則在努力安撫人們對成本最終會超過利潤增長的擔憂。</p>
</div><p>Still, one company’s costs are another’s revenues as shown by a trebling in chip-maker Samsung Electronics’ (005930.KS) operating profits. Memory chips used to be a boring part of the market, until there weren’t enough to go around.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，一家公司的成本正是另一家公司的收入，正如芯片製造商三星電子（005930.KS）營業利潤的三倍增長所示。內存芯片曾經是市場上一個無聊的部分，直到供不應求。</p>
</div><p>Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting has also been called boring, though Chair Jerome Powell sounded pretty chipper in his presser. The economy was on a “solid footing” he said several times, with a “clearly improving outlook”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週三的美聯儲會議也被稱為無聊，儘管主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾在新聞發佈會上顯得相當愉快。他多次表示，經濟處於 “穩固的基礎” 上，前景 “明顯改善”。</p>
</div><p>There was “broad support” on the committee for holding rates steady, apart from the two that voted for a cut of course.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>委員會對維持利率穩定有 “廣泛支持”，當然除了兩位投票支持降息的成員。</p>
</div><p>The Fed had already done a lot of “normalising” on rates, he added, and policy was now only “somewhat restrictive”, or even “loosely neutral”. Markets took that as confirmation an April cut was off the table, with June staying at 61% in part because investors assume President Trump will have found a more dovish replacement as chair by then.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他補充説，美聯儲已經在利率上做了很多 “正常化”，政策現在只是 “有些限制”，甚至是 “鬆散中性”。市場將此視為確認 4 月降息的可能性已被排除，6 月降息的可能性保持在 61%，部分原因是投資者假設特朗普總統到時會找到一個更温和的接替者。</p>
</div><p>Powell, though, would not be drawn on whether he would step down as a Fed governor in May, or stay on until 2028. One reporter wondered why he would want to leave at all given threats to Fed independence, but Powell merely smiled.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，鮑威爾並沒有被問及他是否會在 5 月辭去美聯儲理事職務，或者一直待到 2028 年。一位記者想知道，考慮到對美聯儲獨立性的威脅，他為什麼會想要離開，但鮑威爾只是微笑。</p>
</div><p>Over in currencies, the dollar still looked vulnerable despite Treasury Secretary Bessent insisting the U.S. still has a “strong dollar” policy, no matter what Trump might say.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在貨幣方面，儘管財政部長貝森特堅稱美國仍然有 “強勢美元” 政策，但美元看起來仍然脆弱，無論特朗普怎麼説。</p>
</div><p>More meaningful might be the murmurings from EU and ECB officials about the euro’s rise on the dollar being harmful to exports and a downside risk for inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更有意義的可能是歐盟和歐洲央行官員關於歐元對美元的升值對出口有害以及對通脹構成下行風險的低語。</p>
</div><p>Actual intervention from the staid ECB seems highly unlikely, but the Swiss central bank has more form and the flight from the dollar is pushing the franc up broadly, including against the euro.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歐洲央行似乎不太可能實際干預，但瑞士央行更有經驗，逃離美元的趨勢正在推動瑞士法郎普遍上漲，包括對歐元的匯率。</p>
</div><p>Indeed, the franc (EURCHF=) has broken below huge chart support that must have the Swiss worried. Intervention by the SNB can be messy for markets as it usually sells francs for euros, and then spreads some of those euros out among dollars, sterling etc, causing cross-currents in a range of currencies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事實上，瑞士法郎（EURCHF=）已經突破了巨大的圖表支撐，這讓瑞士人感到擔憂。瑞士國家銀行的干預可能會對市場造成混亂，因為它通常會用法郎換取歐元，然後將部分歐元分散到美元、英鎊等貨幣中，導致多種貨幣之間的交叉流動。</p>
</div><p>Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可能影響週四市場的關鍵發展：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Euro zone consumer confidence, business sentiment for January</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>歐元區消費者信心，1 月份商業信心</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Riksbank policy meeting, ECB board member Piero Cipollone speaks</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>瑞典央行政策會議，歐洲央行董事會成員皮耶羅·奇波隆尼發言</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>U.S. November trade data, weekly jobless claims</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>美國 11 月貿易數據，周度失業救濟申請</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Megacap market</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大型市值市場</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/gdpzjlqrqpw/Pasted%20image%201769526356764.png" alt="" original-src="https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/gdpzjlqrqpw/Pasted%20image%201769526356764.png"/></p>
<p>Tech troubles</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>科技困境</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/TECH/gdvzjlqyqvw/chart.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/TECH/gdvzjlqyqvw/chart.png"/></p>
<p>Tech earnings lead the way</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>科技盈利引領潮流</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/49Zb3ma" alt="" original-src="https://reut.rs/49Zb3ma"/></p>
<p>(By Wayne Cole; Editing by Sonali Paul)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（作者：Wayne Cole；編輯：Sonali Paul）</p>
</div>

MORNING BID EUROPE-Building AI sure does cost a lot, hope it's worth it

- 微軟和 Meta 的資本支出顯著增長，前者達 380 億美元，同比增長 66%。  
- 投資者對兩家公司的反應截然不同，微軟市值蒸發 2400 億美元，Meta 反彈 1400 億美元。  
- 美聯儲主席表示經濟 “穩健”，預計會維持利率不變，市場對未來政策充滿關注。

Reuters

微軟每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 Meta ETF - Direxion

北美科技軟件股指數 ETF - iShares

Roundhill META WeeklyPay ETF

微軟

T-Rex 2X Long Microsoft Daily Target ETF

2 倍做多 META ETF - GraniteShares

標普軟件與服務 ETF - SPDR

2 倍做多 MSFT ETF - GraniteShares

全球科技股指數 ETF - iShares

YieldMax MSFT Option Income Strategy ETF

雲計算 ETF - GlobalX

微軟每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

Kurv Yield Premium Strategy Microsoft MSFT ETF

早間歐洲投標——構建人工智能的成本確實很高，希望它物有所值