<p>美聯儲維持利率不變，暫停寬鬆週期</p><p>美聯儲基金期貨顯示下次降息可能在六月份</p><p>投資者在等待特朗普提名接替鮑威爾擔任主席的人選</p><p>作者：Lewis Krauskopf, Laura Matthews 和 Suzanne McGee</p><p>紐約，1 月 29 日（路透社）——華爾街預計美聯儲的貨幣寬鬆週期將在鮑威爾主席任期結束前暫停，任期至 5 月，這迫使投資者寄希望於年內進一步降息以支持看漲的市場定位。</p><p>美聯儲在週三結束的為期兩天的政策會議上維持利率不變，暫停了支持美國股市的寬鬆週期。利率期貨預計下次降息將在六月份的會議上進行，而屆時將由新的美聯儲主席主持。特朗普多次表示他預計很快會宣佈他的提名人選。</p><p>“我們的看法是，經濟狀況還不錯，但通脹有些頑固，美聯儲維持現狀是正確的，” 內布拉斯加州奧馬哈的財富管理服務提供商 Orion 的首席投資官 Tim Holland 表示。“如果鮑威爾繼續掌舵，我們會非常驚訝如果再有一次降息。”</p><p>儘管投資者預計美聯儲在會議上會暫停寬鬆週期，但他們寄希望於央行保持鴿派立場，年內進一步降息以支持股市和經濟。市場預計下次降息可能在六月份，但一些投資者表示，進一步的寬鬆可能會更早到來，而另一些則認為通脹擔憂可能會完全阻止今年的更多降息。</p><p>投資者注意到，考慮到美聯儲會議通常會導致資產劇烈波動，週三的決定市場反應平靜。基準標準普爾 500 指數（.SPX）當天幾乎沒有變化，在交易期間首次突破 7000 點。</p><p>美國美元指數（=USD）在會議後基本維持了日內漲幅，因為其從四年低點反彈。基準 10 年期國債收益率（US10YT=RR）當天小幅上升至約 4.25%。</p><p>“市場對此反應不大，主要是因為鮑威爾還有兩次會議，” 野村的發達市場首席經濟學家 David Seif 表示。“在鮑威爾想要提供前瞻性指引的情況下，顯然有一個明確的到期日。”</p><h3>2026 年會有更多降息嗎？</h3><p>就業形勢的疲軟促使美聯儲——其目標是維持就業和通脹的穩定——去年將利率降低至當前的 3.50%-3.75%。該委員會在 9 月、10 月和 12 月的會議上將該利率下調了四分之一個百分點，此前暫停了九個月。</p><p>週三，鮑威爾表示，勞動力市場顯示出 “一些穩定的跡象”，而通脹 “仍然有些高企”。</p><p>“在鮑威爾主席任期內，您需要這些動態發生變化，才能使美聯儲再次降息，” State Street 投資管理公司的首席投資策略師 Michael Arone 表示。</p><p>美聯儲基金期貨顯示，在接下來的三月和四月的兩次會議上降息的可能性不到 30%，但在六月份降息的可能性為 65%，根據 LSEG 週三晚間的數據。市場仍在預計到 12 月將再降兩次四分之一個百分點。</p><p>儘管如此，MetLife 投資管理公司的首席市場策略師 Drew Matus 表示，三月份可能會降息，並補充説：“人們可能對前景過於樂觀。”</p><p>Matus 表示，目前的環境是 “提升資產質量的好機會”，包括從高收益固定收益和其他風險較高的策略中轉移。</p><h3>下任主席，下次降息？</h3><p>投資者試圖預測鮑威爾交接後政策的走向，包括下一任領導者在多大程度上會更加鴿派。由於本月早些時候披露鮑威爾面臨被刑事調查的威脅，關於美聯儲能否在沒有政治干預的情況下運作的擔憂加劇，當時美聯儲主席稱這是特朗普施壓央行降息的一部分。</p><p>接任候選人包括美聯儲理事 Christopher Waller、前美聯儲理事 Kevin Warsh、黑石集團的首席債券投資經理 Rick Rieder，以及特朗普經濟顧問 Kevin Hassett，儘管特朗普也表示他更傾向於讓 Hassett 留在現職。</p><p>“我們開始考慮在新主席領導下美聯儲政策的樣子，尤其是現在我認為我們真的在幾個關鍵候選人之間達成共識，” Glenmede 的投資策略副總裁 Michael Reynolds 表示。</p><p>Glenmede 對小型股持超配態度，預計今年可能會有一到兩次降息，這將有助於 “強化這一論點，” Reynolds 表示。</p><p>特朗普週二表示，他將很快宣佈他的美聯儲主席提名，並預測在新主席接任後利率將下降。</p><p>Clearwater Analytics 的研究主管 Matthew Vegari 表示，他認為降息的決定不會完全由新領導者決定。</p><p>“更鴿派的美聯儲主席會影響其他投票成員嗎？我不確定，” Vegari 説。“主席可以施加很大影響力，但這些都是在其領域內經驗豐富的專業人士。”</p>

標普 500 指數股票型基金

標普 500 ETF - Vanguard

標普 500 ETF - iShares

標普 500 指數

<p>華爾街預計美聯儲的寬鬆週期將暫停，投資者押注於年內的降息。美聯儲維持利率不變，期貨市場暗示下次降息可能在新任主席的領導下於六月進行。儘管一些投資者預計降息會更早，但通脹擔憂可能會推遲這一進程。市場對美聯儲的決定反應平靜，標準普爾 500 指數保持穩定。投資者還在考慮新任美聯儲主席的影響，特朗普準備宣佈他的提名人選，潛在候選人正在討論中</p>

<p>Fed holds rates steady, pausing easing cycle</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲維持利率不變，暫停寬鬆週期</p>
</div><p>Fed fund futures suggest next cut could be June</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲基金期貨顯示下次降息可能在六月份</p>
</div><p>Investors waiting for Trump’s nominee to replace Powell as chair</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者在等待特朗普提名接替鮑威爾擔任主席的人選</p>
</div><p>By Lewis Krauskopf, Laura Matthews and Suzanne McGee</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Lewis Krauskopf, Laura Matthews 和 Suzanne McGee</p>
</div><p>NEW YORK, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Wall Street is anticipating a pause in the Federal Reserve’s monetary easing cycle to last through the remainder of Chair Jerome Powell’s term that ends in May, forcing investors to bank on further rate cuts later in the year to support bullish positioning.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>紐約，1 月 29 日（路透社）——華爾街預計美聯儲的貨幣寬鬆週期將在鮑威爾主席任期結束前暫停，任期至 5 月，這迫使投資者寄希望於年內進一步降息以支持看漲的市場定位。</p>
</div><p>The Fed held rates steady on Wednesday at the end of its two-day policy meeting, pausing an easing cycle which has supported U.S. stocks. Interest rate futures priced in the next rate cut at the June meeting, which would be under the next Fed chair. Trump has repeatedly said he expects to announce his pick soon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲在週三結束的為期兩天的政策會議上維持利率不變，暫停了支持美國股市的寬鬆週期。利率期貨預計下次降息將在六月份的會議上進行，而屆時將由新的美聯儲主席主持。特朗普多次表示他預計很快會宣佈他的提名人選。</p>
</div><p>“Our two cents is that the economy is doing okay, but inflation is a bit sticky, and the Fed was right to stand pat,” said Tim Holland, chief investment officer at wealth management service provider Orion in Omaha, Nebraska. “We would be very surprised if we get another rate cut with Mr. Powell at the helm.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我們的看法是，經濟狀況還不錯，但通脹有些頑固，美聯儲維持現狀是正確的，” 內布拉斯加州奧馬哈的財富管理服務提供商 Orion 的首席投資官 Tim Holland 表示。“如果鮑威爾繼續掌舵，我們會非常驚訝如果再有一次降息。”</p>
</div><p>While investors anticipated the Fed to pause its easing cycle at the meeting, they are banking on the central bank maintaining a dovish posture with more cuts later in the year that can support equities and the economy. Markets are pricing in the next likely cut in June, but some investors say further easing could come sooner, while others say that inflation worries could prevent more cuts entirely this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管投資者預計美聯儲在會議上會暫停寬鬆週期，但他們寄希望於央行保持鴿派立場，年內進一步降息以支持股市和經濟。市場預計下次降息可能在六月份，但一些投資者表示，進一步的寬鬆可能會更早到來，而另一些則認為通脹擔憂可能會完全阻止今年的更多降息。</p>
</div><p>Investors noted the calm market reaction to Wednesday’s decision, given that Fed meetings often result in wild swings for assets. The benchmark S&amp;P 500 (.SPX) ended little changed on the day, after breaching the 7,000 level for the first time during the session.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者注意到，考慮到美聯儲會議通常會導致資產劇烈波動，週三的決定市場反應平靜。基準標準普爾 500 指數（.SPX）當天幾乎沒有變化，在交易期間首次突破 7000 點。</p>
</div><p>The U.S. dollar index (=USD) largely held its daily gain following the meeting, as it rebounded from a four-year low. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield (US10YT=RR) moved modestly higher on the day to about 4.25%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國美元指數（=USD）在會議後基本維持了日內漲幅，因為其從四年低點反彈。基準 10 年期國債收益率（US10YT=RR）當天小幅上升至約 4.25%。</p>
</div><p>“The market didn’t react much to this, largely because Powell has two more meetings,” said David Seif, chief economist for developed markets at Nomura. “To the extent that Powell wants to give forward guidance, there’s a clear expiration.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“市場對此反應不大，主要是因為鮑威爾還有兩次會議，” 野村的發達市場首席經濟學家 David Seif 表示。“在鮑威爾想要提供前瞻性指引的情況下，顯然有一個明確的到期日。”</p>
</div><h3>MORE CUTS IN 2026?</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>2026 年會有更多降息嗎？</h3>
</div><p>A weakening jobs picture had prompted the Fed – which seeks to maintain stability in employment and inflation – to lower rates last year to its current level of 3.50%-3.75%. The committee cut that rate by a quarter of a percentage point at its meetings in September, October, and December following a nine-month pause.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就業形勢的疲軟促使美聯儲——其目標是維持就業和通脹的穩定——去年將利率降低至當前的 3.50%-3.75%。該委員會在 9 月、10 月和 12 月的會議上將該利率下調了四分之一個百分點，此前暫停了九個月。</p>
</div><p>On Wednesday, Powell said the job market has shown “some signs of stabilization,” while inflation “remains somewhat elevated.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週三，鮑威爾表示，勞動力市場顯示出 “一些穩定的跡象”，而通脹 “仍然有些高企”。</p>
</div><p>“You would need for those dynamics to change in order for the Fed to cut rates again during Chairman Powell’s term,” said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Investment Management.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在鮑威爾主席任期內，您需要這些動態發生變化，才能使美聯儲再次降息，” State Street 投資管理公司的首席投資策略師 Michael Arone 表示。</p>
</div><p>Fed funds futures suggested a less than 30% chance of a cut at either of the next two meetings in March and April, but a 65% chance of one in June, according to LSEG data late on Wednesday. Markets were still pricing in nearly two more quarter-point cuts by December.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲基金期貨顯示，在接下來的三月和四月的兩次會議上降息的可能性不到 30%，但在六月份降息的可能性為 65%，根據 LSEG 週三晚間的數據。市場仍在預計到 12 月將再降兩次四分之一個百分點。</p>
</div><p>Still, Drew Matus, chief market strategist at MetLife Investment Management, said a cut could come in March, adding that “people are being maybe a little overly optimistic that the outlook is very clear.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，MetLife 投資管理公司的首席市場策略師 Drew Matus 表示，三月份可能會降息，並補充説：“人們可能對前景過於樂觀。”</p>
</div><p>Matus said the current environment is a “good opportunity to be moving up in quality for assets,” including shifting away from high-yield fixed income and other riskier strategies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Matus 表示，目前的環境是 “提升資產質量的好機會”，包括從高收益固定收益和其他風險較高的策略中轉移。</p>
</div><h3>NEXT CHAIR, NEXT CUT?</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>下任主席，下次降息？</h3>
</div><p>Investors are trying to anticipate policy once Powell hands over the baton, including the extent to which the next leader will lean more dovish. Concerns over the Fed’s ability to operate free of political interference ratcheted up after the revelation earlier this month that Powell faced a threatened criminal probe, with the Fed chief at the time calling it part of a push by Trump to pressure the central bank for rate cuts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者試圖預測鮑威爾交接後政策的走向，包括下一任領導者在多大程度上會更加鴿派。由於本月早些時候披露鮑威爾面臨被刑事調查的威脅，關於美聯儲能否在沒有政治干預的情況下運作的擔憂加劇，當時美聯儲主席稱這是特朗普施壓央行降息的一部分。</p>
</div><p>Candidates to take the role include Fed Governor Christopher Waller, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh and BlackRock’s chief bond investment manager, Rick Rieder, and Trump economic adviser Kevin Hassett, although Trump has also said he preferred to keep Hassett in his current post.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>接任候選人包括美聯儲理事 Christopher Waller、前美聯儲理事 Kevin Warsh、黑石集團的首席債券投資經理 Rick Rieder，以及特朗普經濟顧問 Kevin Hassett，儘管特朗普也表示他更傾向於讓 Hassett 留在現職。</p>
</div><p>“We’re starting to think about what Fed policy looks like under a new chair, especially now that I think we’re really coalescing around a couple key candidates,” said Michael Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我們開始考慮在新主席領導下美聯儲政策的樣子，尤其是現在我認為我們真的在幾個關鍵候選人之間達成共識，” Glenmede 的投資策略副總裁 Michael Reynolds 表示。</p>
</div><p>Glenmede is overweight small-cap stocks, with the potential for one or two more rate cuts this year helping to “reinforce that thesis,” Reynolds said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Glenmede 對小型股持超配態度，預計今年可能會有一到兩次降息，這將有助於 “強化這一論點，” Reynolds 表示。</p>
</div><p>Trump on Tuesday said he will soon announce his Fed chair pick, and predicted interest rates would decline after the new chair takes over.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普週二表示，他將很快宣佈他的美聯儲主席提名，並預測在新主席接任後利率將下降。</p>
</div><p>Matthew Vegari, head of research at Clearwater Analytics, said he does not think that a rate cut decision would be solely at the new leader’s discretion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Clearwater Analytics 的研究主管 Matthew Vegari 表示，他認為降息的決定不會完全由新領導者決定。</p>
</div><p>“Would a more dovish Fed chair sway the other voting members? I’m not sure,” Vegari said. “The chair can exert a lot of influence, but these are seasoned professionals at the top of their game.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“更鴿派的美聯儲主席會影響其他投票成員嗎？我不確定，” Vegari 説。“主席可以施加很大影響力，但這些都是在其領域內經驗豐富的專業人士。”</p>
</div>

ANALYSIS-Investors bet on later Fed cuts to support markets after pause

- 美聯儲保持利率不變，暫停貨幣寬鬆週期。  
- 市場預計下一次降息將在 6 月，具體取決於新任主席。  
- 投資者對經濟前景持樂觀態度，但仍存在通脹擔憂。

分析 - 投資者押注美聯儲暫停後將推遲降息來支撐市場