<p>美國股市大幅下跌；納斯達克指數下跌約 2.5%</p>
<p>科技股是標準普爾 500 指數中表現最弱的板塊；能源股領漲</p>
<p>歐洲 STOXX 600 指數轉為下跌，最新下跌約 0.2%</p>
<p>美元上漲；原油上漲約 3%；黃金和比特幣均下滑</p>
<p>美國 10 年期國債收益率微降至約 4.24%。歡迎來到路透社記者為您帶來的實時市場報道。您可以與我們分享您的想法，</p>
<h3>星期四數據盛宴：穩定的失業救濟申請，強勁的工廠訂單，自 1992 年以來最大的貿易逆差躍升</h3>
<p>星期四為投資者提供了一系列混合的經濟指標，顯示出穩定的勞動力市場、強於預期的美國工廠商品訂單以及自《本能》上映以來最大的貿易逆差躍升。</p>
<p>上週，209,000 名美國工人排隊等待失業辦公室（USJOB=ECI），較上週修正後的 210,000 略有下降，比分析師預期的多出 4,000。剔除每週波動，初次失業救濟申請的四周移動平均繼續保持橫盤，略有上升趨勢，處於健康勞動力市場流動的範圍內。</p>
<p>但是，如何解釋在去年裁員公告激增 58% 之後，失業救濟申請數據持續低迷呢？根據 Challenger Gray 的報告。</p>
<p>持續失業救濟申請（USJOBN=ECI）在一週滯後報告中意外下降 2.0%，降至 182.7 萬，低於經濟學家的預測 33,000。這一指標仍然處於高位，考慮到招聘疲軟和消費者對就業前景的悲觀預期，表明這一下降至少部分歸因於福利到期，而被裁員的工人仍然很難找到替代工作。</p>
<p>“在消費者調查中，認為工作難找的比例上升至 2021 年 2 月以來的最高水平，這表明儘管持續申請人數下降，失業率仍在上升，” Pantheon Macroeconomics 首席美國經濟學家 Samuel Tombs 寫道。“從最近的申請數據推斷勞動力市場已經轉變是一個錯誤。”</p>
<p>此外，勞工部發布了第三季度勞動成本（USLCP=ECI）和生產率（USPROP=ECI）的第二次評估，保持不變，分別為-1.9% 和 4.9%。另外，商務部發布了 11 月份的國際貿易報告（USTBAL=ECI）。</p>
<p>報告顯示，美國進口和出口商品及服務的價值差距大幅擴大 94.5%，達到 568 億美元。</p>
<p>這一讀數比市場預期寬 40%，並標誌着近 34 年來最大的貿易逆差激增，確切地説是自 1992 年 3 月以來。為了提供背景，1993 年 3 月是南非投票結束種族隔離的時刻。</p>
<p>在細節上，出口下降 3.6%，而特朗普關税的減弱效應促使進口在 10 月份下降 3.0% 後反彈 5.0%。</p>
<p>進口占美國國際貿易總額的絕大部分，是 GDP 的拖累因素。</p>
<p>總之，進口的反彈可能會對第四季度 GDP 造成影響。</p>
<p>“這是朝着更正常貿易逆差邁出的一步，” High Frequency Economics 首席經濟學家 Carl Weinberg 表示，他補充説該報告 “支持 FOMC 昨天的聲明，即經濟正在以穩健的速度擴張。”</p>
<p>最後，美國工廠製造商品的新訂單（USFORD=ECI）在 11 月份躍升 2.7%，遠超分析師預期的 1.6% 的增幅，並標誌着從 10 月份 1.2% 的下降中顯著反彈。</p>
<p>深入分析，商業飛機類別的訂單激增 97.6%。剔除與運輸相關的商品，新訂單僅微增 0.2%。</p>
<p>國防相關資本貨物訂單下降 14.3% 限制了整體數字的增長。</p>
<p>如下面的圖表所示，自 2022 年中以來，工廠訂單基本保持在約 6000 億美元的平穩區間。這與 ISM 製造業 PMI 相吻合，後者在同一時間段內一直保持在收縮區間。</p>
<p>（Stephen Culp）</p>
<h3>早前市場動態：納斯達克下跌超過 1%，微軟令人失望 點擊這裏 低美元如何影響收益？ 點擊這裏 道瓊斯工業平均指數目前仍未突破 50,000 點擊這裏 AI 驅動商業的贏家和輸家 點擊這裏 油價和歐元，歐洲央行的波動 點擊這裏 黃金過熱：從反彈到狂熱？ 點擊這裏 芯片和礦業幫助 STOXX 抵消軟件的陰霾 點擊這裏 開盤前：收益增加，SAP 拖累 DAX 點擊這裏 建造 AI 確實成本高，希望值得 點擊這裏</h3>
<p>美國市場的早期快照</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/lgpdqzqxmvo/Pasted%20image%201769700631928.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="707" height="675" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/lgpdqzqxmvo/Pasted%20image%201769700631928.png"/></p>
<p>初次失業救濟申請和 Challenger 裁員</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/dwvkqbqkavm/initialclaims.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="601" height="376" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/dwvkqbqkavm/initialclaims.png"/></p>
<p>持續失業救濟申請和就業信心</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/klpyjyjqgvg/contclaims.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="649" height="401" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/klpyjyjqgvg/contclaims.png"/></p>
<p>貿易平衡</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/egpbbxbjkpq/tradebal.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="600" height="376" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/egpbbxbjkpq/tradebal.png"/></p>
<p>工廠訂單</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/lgvdqzqjmpo/ford.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="600" height="376" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/lgvdqzqjmpo/ford.png"/></p>
<p>( )</p>

<p>美國股市大幅下跌，納斯達克指數下跌約 2.5%。經濟指標顯示，失業救濟申請保持穩定，工廠訂單強勁，貿易赤字大幅增加 94.5%，達到 568 億美元，為 1992 年以來的最高水平。初次申請失業救濟的人數略微減少至 209,000，而持續申請人數意外下降。工廠訂單增長 2.7%，主要受到商用飛機訂單激增 97.6% 的推動。然而，國防相關資本貨物訂單的下降抑制了整體增長。這些混合的經濟數據表明勞動力市場複雜，可能對第四季度 GDP 產生影響</p>

<p>US stocks sharply lower; Nasdaq down ~2.5%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國股市大幅下跌；納斯達克指數下跌約 2.5%</p>
</div><p>Tech weakest S&amp;P 500 sector; Energy leads gainers</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>科技股是標準普爾 500 指數中表現最弱的板塊；能源股領漲</p>
</div><p>Euro STOXX 600 index turns red, last off ~0.2%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歐洲 STOXX 600 指數轉為下跌，最新下跌約 0.2%</p>
</div><p>Dollar gains; crude up ~3%; gold, bitcoin both slide</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元上漲；原油上漲約 3%；黃金和比特幣均下滑</p>
</div><p>US 10-Year Treasury yield edges down to ~4.24% Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國 10 年期國債收益率微降至約 4.24%。歡迎來到路透社記者為您帶來的實時市場報道。您可以與我們分享您的想法，</p>
</div><h3>THURSDAY DATA PARADE: STEADY CLAIMS, SOLID FACTORY ORDERS, BIGGEST TRADE DEFICIT JUMP SINCE 1992</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>星期四數據盛宴：穩定的失業救濟申請，強勁的工廠訂單，自 1992 年以來最大的貿易逆差躍升</h3>
</div><p>Thursday offered investors a mixed platter of economic indicators, featuring a stable labor market, stronger-than-expected orders of merchandise from U.S. factories and the largest jump in the trade deficit since “Basic Instinct” ruled the box office.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>星期四為投資者提供了一系列混合的經濟指標，顯示出穩定的勞動力市場、強於預期的美國工廠商品訂單以及自《本能》上映以來最大的貿易逆差躍升。</p>
</div><p>Last week, 209,000 U.S. workers joined the queue outside the unemployment office (USJOB=ECI) , down slightly from the previous week’s upwardly revised 210,000, and 4,000 more than analysts expected. Ironing out weekly volatility, the four-week moving average of initial jobless claims continues to move sideways, with a slight upward bias and within the range associated with healthy labor market churn.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上週，209,000 名美國工人排隊等待失業辦公室（USJOB=ECI），較上週修正後的 210,000 略有下降，比分析師預期的多出 4,000。剔除每週波動，初次失業救濟申請的四周移動平均繼續保持橫盤，略有上升趨勢，處於健康勞動力市場流動的範圍內。</p>
</div><p>But how do we square these consistently low claims data on the heels of last year’s 58% jump in layoff announcements, per Challenger Gray?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但是，如何解釋在去年裁員公告激增 58% 之後，失業救濟申請數據持續低迷呢？根據 Challenger Gray 的報告。</p>
</div><p>Ongoing jobless claims (USJOBN=ECI) , reported on a one-week lag, unexpectedly dropped by 2.0% to 1.827 million, or 33,000 fewer than economists predicted. This metric remains elevated, and in light of weak hiring and a dour consumer jobs outlook suggests the dip is at least partly attributable to benefits expiry, and laid-off workers are still finding it difficult to find a replacement gig.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>持續失業救濟申請（USJOBN=ECI）在一週滯後報告中意外下降 2.0%，降至 182.7 萬，低於經濟學家的預測 33,000。這一指標仍然處於高位，考慮到招聘疲軟和消費者對就業前景的悲觀預期，表明這一下降至少部分歸因於福利到期，而被裁員的工人仍然很難找到替代工作。</p>
</div><p>”(The) rise in the proportion of people saying jobs are hard to get - in the Conference Board’s survey of consumers - to its highest level since February 2021, suggests the unemployment rate is still rising, despite the decline in continuing claims” writes Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “It is a mistake to infer from the recent claims data that the labor market has turned a corner.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在消費者調查中，認為工作難找的比例上升至 2021 年 2 月以來的最高水平，這表明儘管持續申請人數下降，失業率仍在上升，” Pantheon Macroeconomics 首席美國經濟學家 Samuel Tombs 寫道。“從最近的申請數據推斷勞動力市場已經轉變是一個錯誤。”</p>
</div><p>Additionally, in an echo from the ancient past, the Labor Department released its second take on third-quarter labor costs (USLCP=ECI) and productivity (USPROP=ECI) , leaving them unrevised at -1.9% and 4.9%, respectively. Separately, the Commerce Department released its international trade report (USTBAL=ECI) for November.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，勞工部發布了第三季度勞動成本（USLCP=ECI）和生產率（USPROP=ECI）的第二次評估，保持不變，分別為-1.9% 和 4.9%。另外，商務部發布了 11 月份的國際貿易報告（USTBAL=ECI）。</p>
</div><p>It showed the difference in the value of goods and services imported to the U.S. and those exported abroad, widened by a whopping 94.5% to $56.8 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>報告顯示，美國進口和出口商品及服務的價值差距大幅擴大 94.5%，達到 568 億美元。</p>
</div><p>The reading is 40% wider than consensus, and marked the largest trade deficit surge in nearly 34 years, or since March 1992, to be exact. For perspective, March 1993 is when South Africa voted to end Apartheid.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一讀數比市場預期寬 40%，並標誌着近 34 年來最大的貿易逆差激增，確切地説是自 1992 年 3 月以來。為了提供背景，1993 年 3 月是南非投票結束種族隔離的時刻。</p>
</div><p>Under the hood, exports fell by 3.6%, while the waning effects of the Trump tariffs prompted a 5.0% rebound in imports on the heels of October’s 3.0% dip.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在細節上，出口下降 3.6%，而特朗普關税的減弱效應促使進口在 10 月份下降 3.0% 後反彈 5.0%。</p>
</div><p>Imports, which account for the lion’s share of the United States’ total international trade, are a GDP detractor.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>進口占美國國際貿易總額的絕大部分，是 GDP 的拖累因素。</p>
</div><p>Bottom line, the bounce-back in imports could put a dent in Q4 GDP.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>總之，進口的反彈可能會對第四季度 GDP 造成影響。</p>
</div><p>“This is a step back toward more normal trade deficits,” says Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, who adds that the report “supports the FOMC’s statement yesterday that the economy is expanding at a solid pace.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“這是朝着更正常貿易逆差邁出的一步，” High Frequency Economics 首席經濟學家 Carl Weinberg 表示，他補充説該報告 “支持 FOMC 昨天的聲明，即經濟正在以穩健的速度擴張。”</p>
</div><p>Finally, new orders for U.S. factory-made merchandise (USFORD=ECI) jumped by 2.7% in November, breezing past the 1.6% increase analysts expected and marking a decisive rebound from October’s 1.2% dip.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最後，美國工廠製造商品的新訂單（USFORD=ECI）在 11 月份躍升 2.7%，遠超分析師預期的 1.6% 的增幅，並標誌着從 10 月份 1.2% 的下降中顯著反彈。</p>
</div><p>Drilling down, the commercial aircraft category is the jaw-dropper, jumping 97.6%. Excluding transportation-related goods, new orders rose by a languid 0.2%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>深入分析，商業飛機類別的訂單激增 97.6%。剔除與運輸相關的商品，新訂單僅微增 0.2%。</p>
</div><p>A 14.3% drop in orders for defense-related capital goods held the headline number in check.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>國防相關資本貨物訂單下降 14.3% 限制了整體數字的增長。</p>
</div><p>As the graphic below shows, factory orders have largely leveled off to a flat, range-bound trendline of around $600 billion since mid-2022. This coincides with ISM manufacturing PMI, which has remained fairly consistently in contraction territory over the same time frame.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如下面的圖表所示，自 2022 年中以來，工廠訂單基本保持在約 6000 億美元的平穩區間。這與 ISM 製造業 PMI 相吻合，後者在同一時間段內一直保持在收縮區間。</p>
</div><p>(Stephen Culp)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（Stephen Culp）</p>
</div><h3>EARLIER ON LIVE MARKETS: NASDAQ FALLS MORE THAN 1% AS MICROSOFT DISAPPOINTS CLICK HERE HOW COULD A LOWER US DOLLAR IMPACT EARNINGS? CLICK HERE DOW INDUSTRIALS SO FAR FADING SHY OF 50,000 CLICK HERE WINNERS AND LOSERS FROM AI-DRIVEN COMMERCE CLICK HERE OIL AND THE EURO, SWINGS AND ROUNDABOUTS FOR THE ECB CLICK HERE GOLD OVERHEATS: FROM RALLY TO MANIA? CLICK HERE CHIPS AND MINERS HELP STOXX OFFSET SOFTWARE GLOOM CLICK HERE BEFORE THE BELL: EARNINGS RAMP UP, SAP DRAG FOR THE DAX CLICK HERE BUILDING AI SURE DOES COST A LOT, HOPE ITS WORTH IT CLICK HERE</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>早前市場動態：納斯達克下跌超過 1%，微軟令人失望 點擊這裏 低美元如何影響收益？ 點擊這裏 道瓊斯工業平均指數目前仍未突破 50,000 點擊這裏 AI 驅動商業的贏家和輸家 點擊這裏 油價和歐元，歐洲央行的波動 點擊這裏 黃金過熱：從反彈到狂熱？ 點擊這裏 芯片和礦業幫助 STOXX 抵消軟件的陰霾 點擊這裏 開盤前：收益增加，SAP 拖累 DAX 點擊這裏 建造 AI 確實成本高，希望值得 點擊這裏</h3>
</div><p>Early snapshot for US market</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國市場的早期快照</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/lgpdqzqxmvo/Pasted%20image%201769700631928.png" alt="" original-src="https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/lgpdqzqxmvo/Pasted%20image%201769700631928.png"/></p>
<p>Initial jobless claims and Challenger layoffs</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>初次失業救濟申請和 Challenger 裁員</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/dwvkqbqkavm/initialclaims.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/dwvkqbqkavm/initialclaims.png"/></p>
<p>Continuing jobless claims and jobs confidence</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>持續失業救濟申請和就業信心</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/klpyjyjqgvg/contclaims.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/klpyjyjqgvg/contclaims.png"/></p>
<p>Trade balance</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>貿易平衡</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/egpbbxbjkpq/tradebal.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/egpbbxbjkpq/tradebal.png"/></p>
<p>Factory orders</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>工廠訂單</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/lgvdqzqjmpo/ford.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/lgvdqzqjmpo/ford.png"/></p>
<p>( )</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>( )</p>
</div>

LIVE MARKETS-Thursday data parade: Steady claims, solid factory orders, biggest trade deficit jump since 1992

- 美國股市大幅下跌，納斯達克指數跌約 2.5%。  
- 經濟指標顯示，11 月美國工廠新訂單增長 2.7%。  
- 貿易逆差激增 94.5%，創近 34 年來最大增幅。

Reuters

美國大盤成長股 ETF - Charles Schwab

全美成長股指數 MSCI ETF - Vanguard

3 倍做多納指 ETF - ProShares

現場市場 - 週四數據發佈：申請穩定，工廠訂單穩固，自 1992 年以來貿易逆差最大增幅