<p>價值 2 萬億美元（1.5 萬億英鎊）的私人信貸行業正受到金融監管機構的質詢，原因是人們擔心其未被識別的損失可能引發金融系統崩潰，《每日電訊報》可以透露。</p>
<p>金融行為監管局的官員們最近幾周對所謂的影子銀行施加了壓力，這些銀行是投機性人工智能熱潮日益重要的資金來源，要求它們更嚴格地降低那些可能無法全額償還的貸款的價值。</p>
<p>金融行為監管局的機密討論是由城市消息人士透露的，隨着私人信貸基金的快速增長，人們對其競爭傳統銀行向公司發放貸款的能力表示越來越擔憂。根據穆迪最近的一份報告，到 2030 年，私人信貸資產的價值將接近 4 萬億美元。</p>
<p>影子銀行的批評者指責它們採用 “虛幻估值”，輕易地計算未實現的收益，但在貸款明顯出現問題時卻很少承認損失。這與 “市場估值” 會計方法形成對比，後者被視為更透明和嚴格，但可能會給投資者帶來不必要的波動。</p>
<p>自上次金融危機以來，這種貸款已成為一些全球最大資產管理公司（包括 Ares Management、黑石集團、阿波羅全球管理和凱雷集團）盈利增長的豐厚來源。</p>
<p>過去幾年，該行業迅速發展。來自海灣主權財富基金的大量資金尋求比公共市場更高的回報，滿足了數據中心建設者對貸款的巨大需求，他們押注於人工智能熱潮將變得盈利。私募股權數據庫 Preqin 的數據顯示，從 2021 年到 2025 年 5 月，約有 500 億美元的數據中心項目由私人市場資助。</p>
<p>金融行為監管局拒絕評論其接觸了哪些私人信貸主要參與者關於貸款估值的做法。沒有任何個別提供者被指控不當行為。</p>
<p>消息人士表示，金融行為監管局並不專注於向特定行業發放的貸款，而是對向公用事業等關鍵企業的貸款給予額外審查。</p>
<p>然而，英格蘭銀行行長安德魯·貝利最近警告稱，影子銀行行業迫切需要變得更安全，因為人們越來越擔心它可能成為下一個金融危機的根源。</p>
<p>這些基金通常自己也從傳統銀行借款，使整個系統面臨風險。</p>
<h2>養老金風險</h2>
<p>根據評級機構穆迪的數據，美國國內銀行現在已向影子銀行貸款 1.2 萬億美元，其中估計有 3000 億美元是貸款給私人信貸提供者的。</p>
<p>華爾街銀行已成為私人信貸行業最堅定的金融支持者之一，根據美聯儲最近的一份報告，從 2020 年到 2025 年，它們向私人債務基金的貸款量激增了 145%。</p>
<p>它們對借款的追求最近吸引了零售投資者和保險公司，引發了人們對普通養老金領取者可能面臨損失的擔憂，因為在提供者無法迅速返還現金的情況下，可能會出現突發的清算。</p>
<p>這一風險被認為推動了金融行為監管局的行動。官員們與英格蘭銀行及其國際同行（如美國證券交易委員會）密切合作，研究私人信貸貸款的估值實踐。</p>
<p>上週，全球最大的資產管理公司黑巖將一個大型美國私人信貸基金的估值下調了 19%。尚不清楚這一不尋常的舉措是否是響應監管壓力，黑巖對此行動未作評論，這一舉動在華爾街引發了震動。</p>
<p>政治家們也越來越關注影子銀行的危險。去年夏天，美國參議員們對信用評級機構表示擔憂，稱它們被指控為虛高的貸款估值提供掩護，並因配合而獲得獎勵。</p>
<p>金融行為監管局也被認為在關注私人信貸公司如何依賴評級機構發放貸款。</p>
<p>上議院金融服務監管委員會特別指出財政部在面對影子銀行可能帶來的風險時的 “消極態度”，並表示政府 “對影子銀行潛在風險的理解有限”。</p>
<p>財政部表示，近年來它與監管機構合作，顯著增加了對非銀行部門的關注，並且擁有一個強大而靈活的框架來保護金融穩定。</p>
<h2>裂痕顯現</h2>
<p>傳奇的困境債務投資者霍華德·馬克斯去年表示，他不認為私人信貸對金融系統構成風險。</p>
<p>但他補充道：“私人信貸從未退潮，這意味着我們沒有機會看到它的缺陷。在我看來，主要問題是一些管理者急於籌集資本並投入使用——以便他們可以再次籌集更多——以至於放鬆了信用標準，未能要求足夠的安全邊際。</p>
<p>“如果經濟和市場再次出現困難時期，我們將看到結果。”</p>
<p>私人信貸的高估值的跡象已經開始顯現。汽車融資提供商 Tricolor 和汽車零部件供應商 First Brands 的破產，似乎毫無預警地給私人信貸行業帶來了數十億美元的損失，儘管伴隨着欺詐指控。</p>
<p>《每日電訊報》去年報道了關於陷入困境的寬帶提供商 TalkTalk 從私人信貸巨頭 Ares 借款的擔憂。雖然 TalkTalk 的上市債券以其原始價值的一小部分交易，但尚不清楚 Ares 是否已將其 5 億英鎊的貸款標記為市場價值。</p>
<p>據瞭解，Ares 至少每季度對貸款進行評估，並通過第三方機構進行驗證，這些機構也會進行年度審計。</p>
<p>金融行為監管局已被聯繫以獲取評論。</p>

<p>英國金融行為監管局（FCA）正在對價值 2 萬億美元的私人信貸行業進行審查，原因是擔心未被識別的損失可能導致金融崩潰。作為人工智能繁榮資金來源的影子銀行迅速增長，面臨着準確評估貸款價值的壓力。批評者指責它們使用 “神話定價” 來評估，這可能掩蓋風險。FCA 正在與英格蘭銀行合作，以改善貸款評估實踐，因擔心如果這些公司未能迅速返還現金，普通投資者可能會面臨損失。政治家們也對影子銀行可能帶來的危險表示擔憂</p>

<p>The $2tn (£1.5tn) private credit industry is being quizzed by the City watchdog over fears its unrecognised losses could fuel a financial system meltdown, The Telegraph can reveal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>價值 2 萬億美元（1.5 萬億英鎊）的私人信貸行業正受到金融監管機構的質詢，原因是人們擔心其未被識別的損失可能引發金融系統崩潰，《每日電訊報》可以透露。</p>
</div><p>Officials from the Financial Conduct Authority have in recent weeks been piling pressure on so-called shadow banks – an increasingly critical source of funding for the speculative AI boom – to more rigorously mark down the value of loans that are at risk of not being repaid in full.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>金融行為監管局的官員們最近幾周對所謂的影子銀行施加了壓力，這些銀行是投機性人工智能熱潮日益重要的資金來源，要求它們更嚴格地降低那些可能無法全額償還的貸款的價值。</p>
</div><p>The FCA’s confidential discussions were revealed by City sources amid growing concern about the rapid rise of private credit funds, which compete with traditional banks to make loans to companies. Private credit assets will be worth almost $4tn by 2030, according to a recent report by Moody’s.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>金融行為監管局的機密討論是由城市消息人士透露的，隨着私人信貸基金的快速增長，人們對其競爭傳統銀行向公司發放貸款的能力表示越來越擔憂。根據穆迪最近的一份報告，到 2030 年，私人信貸資產的價值將接近 4 萬億美元。</p>
</div><p>Critics of the shadow banks have accused them of “mark-to-myth” valuations that readily account for unrealised gains but rarely take hits even as a loan is obviously turning bad. This is in contrast to “mark-to-market” accounting, which is seen as more transparent and rigorous but can mean unwanted turbulence for investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>影子銀行的批評者指責它們採用 “虛幻估值”，輕易地計算未實現的收益，但在貸款明顯出現問題時卻很少承認損失。這與 “市場估值” 會計方法形成對比，後者被視為更透明和嚴格，但可能會給投資者帶來不必要的波動。</p>
</div><p>Since the last financial crisis such lending has become a lucrative source of fee growth for some of the world’s biggest money managers including Ares Management, Blackstone, Apollo Global Management and the Carlyle Group.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自上次金融危機以來，這種貸款已成為一些全球最大資產管理公司（包括 Ares Management、黑石集團、阿波羅全球管理和凱雷集團）盈利增長的豐厚來源。</p>
</div><p>The industry has accelerated rapidly in the past few years. A flood of cash from Gulf sovereign wealth funds seeking higher returns than are available on public markets has met massive demand for loans from data centre builders betting the AI boom will turn profitable. Figures from private equity database Preqin suggest that about $50bn of data centre projects were funded by private markets between 2021 and May 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>過去幾年，該行業迅速發展。來自海灣主權財富基金的大量資金尋求比公共市場更高的回報，滿足了數據中心建設者對貸款的巨大需求，他們押注於人工智能熱潮將變得盈利。私募股權數據庫 Preqin 的數據顯示，從 2021 年到 2025 年 5 月，約有 500 億美元的數據中心項目由私人市場資助。</p>
</div><p>The FCA declined to comment on which of the major players in private credit it had approached about their loan valuation practices. There is no suggestion of malpractice by any individual provider.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>金融行為監管局拒絕評論其接觸了哪些私人信貸主要參與者關於貸款估值的做法。沒有任何個別提供者被指控不當行為。</p>
</div><p>Sources said the FCA was not focused on loans issued to a particular sector, but on giving extra scrutiny to lending to critical businesses such as utilities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>消息人士表示，金融行為監管局並不專注於向特定行業發放的貸款，而是對向公用事業等關鍵企業的貸款給予額外審查。</p>
</div><p>However, Andrew Bailey, the Governor of the Bank of England, recently warned of an “urgent need” to make the shadow banking industry safer amid growing fears it could be the cause of the next financial crisis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，英格蘭銀行行長安德魯·貝利最近警告稱，影子銀行行業迫切需要變得更安全，因為人們越來越擔心它可能成為下一個金融危機的根源。</p>
</div><p>Funds often themselves borrow money from traditional banks, exposing the wider system to risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些基金通常自己也從傳統銀行借款，使整個系統面臨風險。</p>
</div><h2>Pensions risk</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>養老金風險</h2>
</div><p>US domestic banks have now lent $1.2tn to shadow banks, according to ratings agency Moody’s, which estimated that $300bn of these loans were to private credit providers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據評級機構穆迪的數據，美國國內銀行現在已向影子銀行貸款 1.2 萬億美元，其中估計有 3000 億美元是貸款給私人信貸提供者的。</p>
</div><p>Wall Street banks have emerged as among the staunchest financial supporters of the private credit industry, with the volume of their loans to private debt funds soaring 145pc from 2020 to 2025, according to a recent report by the Federal Reserve.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>華爾街銀行已成為私人信貸行業最堅定的金融支持者之一，根據美聯儲最近的一份報告，從 2020 年到 2025 年，它們向私人債務基金的貸款量激增了 145%。</p>
</div><p>Their hunt for cash to lend has more recently drawn in retail investors and insurers, stoking fears that ordinary pensioners could face losses in a sudden reckoning in which providers are unable to quickly return cash.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它們對借款的追求最近吸引了零售投資者和保險公司，引發了人們對普通養老金領取者可能面臨損失的擔憂，因為在提供者無法迅速返還現金的情況下，可能會出現突發的清算。</p>
</div><p>This risk is understood to be driving FCA action. Officials are collaborating closely on private credit loan valuation practices with the Bank of England and its international peers such as the Securities and Exchange Commission in the US.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一風險被認為推動了金融行為監管局的行動。官員們與英格蘭銀行及其國際同行（如美國證券交易委員會）密切合作，研究私人信貸貸款的估值實踐。</p>
</div><p>Last week BlackRock, the world’s biggest money manager, marked down a large US private credit fund by 19pc. It is unknown whether the unusual step was taken in response to regulatory pressure and BlackRock has declined to comment on the action, which sent tremors through Wall Street.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上週，全球最大的資產管理公司黑巖將一個大型美國私人信貸基金的估值下調了 19%。尚不清楚這一不尋常的舉措是否是響應監管壓力，黑巖對此行動未作評論，這一舉動在華爾街引發了震動。</p>
</div><p>Politicians are also increasingly concerned about the dangers of shadow banking. In an echo of the financial crisis, US senators last summer raised concerns about credit ratings agencies. They were accused of providing cover for inflated loan valuations and being rewarded for playing along.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政治家們也越來越關注影子銀行的危險。去年夏天，美國參議員們對信用評級機構表示擔憂，稱它們被指控為虛高的貸款估值提供掩護，並因配合而獲得獎勵。</p>
</div><p>The FCA is also understood to be looking at how private credit firms rely on ratings agencies to issue loans.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>金融行為監管局也被認為在關注私人信貸公司如何依賴評級機構發放貸款。</p>
</div><p>The House of Lords’ financial services regulation committee has singled out the Treasury for its “passivity” in the face of the possible risks from shadow banking, adding that the Government had “demonstrated a limited grasp” of the potential risks from shadow banking.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上議院金融服務監管委員會特別指出財政部在面對影子銀行可能帶來的風險時的 “消極態度”，並表示政府 “對影子銀行潛在風險的理解有限”。</p>
</div><p>The Treasury said that in recent years it had worked together with regulators to significantly increase its focus on the non-banks sectors and that it has a robust, flexible framework to protect financial stability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>財政部表示，近年來它與監管機構合作，顯著增加了對非銀行部門的關注，並且擁有一個強大而靈活的框架來保護金融穩定。</p>
</div><h2>Cracks emerge</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>裂痕顯現</h2>
</div><p>Howard Marks, the legendary distressed-debt investor, said last year that he did not believe private credit was a risk to the financial system.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>傳奇的困境債務投資者霍華德·馬克斯去年表示，他不認為私人信貸對金融系統構成風險。</p>
</div><p>But he added: “The tide has never gone out on private credit, meaning we haven’t had an opportunity to see its flaws. As far as I’m concerned, the main one is the possibility that some managers have been in such a hurry to scoop up capital and put it to work – so they could come back for more – that they relaxed their credit standards and failed to demand a sufficient margin of safety.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但他補充道：“私人信貸從未退潮，這意味着我們沒有機會看到它的缺陷。在我看來，主要問題是一些管理者急於籌集資本並投入使用——以便他們可以再次籌集更多——以至於放鬆了信用標準，未能要求足夠的安全邊際。</p>
</div><p>“If there’s ever another difficult period in the economy and the market, we’ll see the result.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果經濟和市場再次出現困難時期，我們將看到結果。”</p>
</div><p>Glimpses of overvalued private credit have begun to emerge. The bankruptcies of the car finance provider Tricolor and car-parts supplier First Brands both imposed multibillion-dollar losses on the private credit industry seemingly out of the blue, albeit amid allegations of fraud.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>私人信貸的高估值的跡象已經開始顯現。汽車融資提供商 Tricolor 和汽車零部件供應商 First Brands 的破產，似乎毫無預警地給私人信貸行業帶來了數十億美元的損失，儘管伴隨着欺詐指控。</p>
</div><p>The Telegraph last year reported concerns about borrowing by the troubled broadband provider TalkTalk from the private credit giant Ares. While TalkTalk’s listed bonds were trading at a fraction of their original value, it was not clear that Ares had marked its £500m lending to the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>《每日電訊報》去年報道了關於陷入困境的寬帶提供商 TalkTalk 從私人信貸巨頭 Ares 借款的擔憂。雖然 TalkTalk 的上市債券以其原始價值的一小部分交易，但尚不清楚 Ares 是否已將其 5 億英鎊的貸款標記為市場價值。</p>
</div><p>It is understood that Ares evaluates loans on at least a quarterly basis and validates them with third party agencies, which are also audited annually.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>據瞭解，Ares 至少每季度對貸款進行評估，並通過第三方機構進行驗證，這些機構也會進行年度審計。</p>
</div><p>The FCA was contacted for comment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>金融行為監管局已被聯繫以獲取評論。</p>
</div>

‘影子銀行’ 因隱藏損失可能引發的崩潰威脅而受到質詢