<p>（這裏表達的觀點是作者的觀點，他是路透社的專欄作家。）</p>
<p>作者：加文·麥奎爾</p>
<p>科羅拉多州小頓，1 月 30 日（路透社）——在北美和歐洲爭相建立 21 世紀商業所需的數據中心時，許多新興市場仍然依賴於 20 世紀的產品，如鋼鐵、水泥和塑料，以創造就業和推動經濟增長。</p>
<p>這種差異也在分裂能源轉型的軌跡。</p>
<p>在美國和歐洲，爭奪人工智能和數據處理的領先地位正在徹底改革電力系統，以更可靠地提供更多電能。</p>
<p>與此同時，許多亞洲、非洲和中東的經濟體仍然依賴於耗能巨大的重工業，主要用於生產原材料和消費品。這意味着化石燃料，特別是煤炭，可能在能源系統中保持中心地位的時間遠比西方政策制定者所假設的要長。</p>
<h3>碳重型</h3>
<p>雖然歐洲和美國的經濟最初是由原材料和重工業驅動的，但數十年的外包導致了大量煙囱生產能力轉移到其他地區。</p>
<p>自 1990 年代以來，中國已成為金屬、水泥、化學品、陶瓷和玻璃新產能建設的主要地點，並將這些原材料用於發展其世界領先的製造業。</p>
<p>然而，包括越南、印度尼西亞、尼日利亞、埃及、土耳其和印度在內的許多其他新興市場也在嘗試遵循類似的發展藍圖，現在也成為各種原材料的主要生產國。</p>
<p>事實上，全球鋼鐵和化學品生產能力的四分之三位於亞洲、非洲、中東和拉丁美洲，全球能源監測組織（GEM）的數據顯示。</p>
<p>在水泥和熟料的產能方面——混凝土的重要成分——全球約 85% 的產能位於北美和歐洲以外。</p>
<p>亞洲、非洲和中東的經濟體也在主導新鋼鐵、水泥和化學品的建設，佔在建產能的近 90%。</p>
<h3>被動受眾</h3>
<p>這些國家不僅是生產原材料的更便宜地方。它們也是水泥、鋼鐵、塑料及相關產品增長最快的消費市場之一。</p>
<p>低運營成本和不斷上升的國內消費的結合，進一步鞏固了在當地建立這些材料生產能力的合理性。</p>
<p>與卡車運輸隊、儲存運營商和加工設施相關的供應鏈的建設創造了額外的經濟價值和就業機會，進一步提升了它們在當地經濟中的重要性。</p>
<p>再加上發展一個能夠將這些材料升級為更昂貴消費品的製造業的潛力，可以理解為什麼如此多國家的政策支持基礎材料產業。</p>
<h3>能源消耗者</h3>
<p>然而，對原材料和關鍵中間產品的深度依賴也塑造了旨在維持這些產業生存的國家電力系統。</p>
<p>生產水泥、鋼鐵和化學品的過程 notoriously 耗能，生產商需要充足、廉價的電力以保持競爭力。</p>
<p>許多這些材料也容易進口，這使得當地生產商容易受到外國競爭對手的衝擊。</p>
<p>這反過來又迫使地方當局確保運營成本儘可能低——尤其是能源成本——並制定有利於生產商的政策。</p>
<p>在快速增長、對成本敏感的經濟體中，能源系統成為工業政策。</p>
<p>如今，東南亞的大部分地區以及北非和中非的部分地區依賴煤炭作為其工業電力供應的主要來源。</p>
<p>為了支持和維持這種對煤炭的依賴，通常會開發廣泛的採礦、進口和儲存設施，而燃煤電力往往是這些經濟體迅速提升能源供應的最快方式。</p>
<p>擴大燃煤電力輸出的努力可能與更發達地區的趨勢相悖，並可能逆轉去碳化能源系統的努力。</p>
<p>但只要水泥和鋼鐵等基礎材料支付大部分賬單並僱傭大量勞動力，生產國可能就沒有奢侈的空間來加速能源轉型的努力，而不破壞更廣泛的經濟。{這裏表達的觀點是作者的觀點，他是路透社的專欄作家。} 享受這篇專欄嗎？請查看路透社開放興趣（ROI），您獲取全球金融評論的必備新來源。在 LinkedIn 和 X 上關注 ROI。並在 Apple、Spotify 或路透社應用上收聽《晨間投標》每日播客。訂閲以聽取路透社記者討論市場和金融領域的重大新聞，每週七天。</p>
<p>按地區劃分的全球鋼鐵、化學品和水泥產能</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3M3naqa?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1761" height="666" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3M3naqa"/></p>
<p>按運營中的水泥和鋼鐵產能排名前 20 的國家</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4q7tN8R?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1802" height="761" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4q7tN8R"/></p>
<p>按在建水泥和鋼鐵產能排名前 20 的國家</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4k9W1Pi?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1813" height="774" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4k9W1Pi"/></p>

<p>這篇文章討論了新興市場在實現經濟脱碳方面面臨的挑戰，因為它們仍然依賴於鋼鐵、水泥和塑料等能源密集型產業。儘管北美和歐洲在人工智能和數據處理方面取得了進展，但亞洲、非洲和中東的許多國家仍然依賴化石燃料，特別是煤炭，以推動經濟增長。這種對原材料的依賴使得向更清潔能源轉型的努力變得複雜，因為當地經濟優先考慮低能源成本以支持其工業部門</p>

<p>(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（這裏表達的觀點是作者的觀點，他是路透社的專欄作家。）</p>
</div><p>By Gavin Maguire</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：加文·麥奎爾</p>
</div><p>LITTLETON, Colorado, Jan 30 (Reuters) - While North America and Europe scramble to build the data centers needed to run 21st-century businesses, many emerging markets remain anchored to 20th-century products like steel, cement and plastics for job creation and economic growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>科羅拉多州小頓，1 月 30 日（路透社）——在北美和歐洲爭相建立 21 世紀商業所需的數據中心時，許多新興市場仍然依賴於 20 世紀的產品，如鋼鐵、水泥和塑料，以創造就業和推動經濟增長。</p>
</div><p>That divergence is splitting energy transition trajectories, too.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種差異也在分裂能源轉型的軌跡。</p>
</div><p>In the U.S. and Europe, the race to lead in artificial intelligence and data processing is overhauling power systems to deliver more electrons, more reliably.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美國和歐洲，爭奪人工智能和數據處理的領先地位正在徹底改革電力系統，以更可靠地提供更多電能。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, many economies in Asia, Africa and the Middle East remain tied to power-hungry heavy industry, mainly to churn out raw materials and consumer goods. That means fossil fuels - particularly coal - may retain a central role within energy systems for far longer than policymakers in the West assume.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，許多亞洲、非洲和中東的經濟體仍然依賴於耗能巨大的重工業，主要用於生產原材料和消費品。這意味着化石燃料，特別是煤炭，可能在能源系統中保持中心地位的時間遠比西方政策制定者所假設的要長。</p>
</div><h3>CARBON-HEAVY</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>碳重型</h3>
</div><p>While the economies of Europe and the U.S. were initially powered by raw materials and heavy industry, decades of offshoring have resulted in the transfer of much of that smokestack production capacity to other regions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然歐洲和美國的經濟最初是由原材料和重工業驅動的，但數十年的外包導致了大量煙囱生產能力轉移到其他地區。</p>
</div><p>Since the 1990s, China has been the primary location for the build-out of new capacity for the production of metals, cement, chemicals, ceramics and glass, and has in turn deployed those raw materials to develop its world-leading manufacturing sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 1990 年代以來，中國已成為金屬、水泥、化學品、陶瓷和玻璃新產能建設的主要地點，並將這些原材料用於發展其世界領先的製造業。</p>
</div><p>However, scores of other emerging markets including Vietnam, Indonesia, Nigeria, Egypt, Turkey and India have or are attempting to follow similar development blueprints, and are now also major producers of various raw materials.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，包括越南、印度尼西亞、尼日利亞、埃及、土耳其和印度在內的許多其他新興市場也在嘗試遵循類似的發展藍圖，現在也成為各種原材料的主要生產國。</p>
</div><p>Indeed, three-quarters of global production capacity of steel and chemicals is located in Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America, data from Global Energy Monitor (GEM) shows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事實上，全球鋼鐵和化學品生產能力的四分之三位於亞洲、非洲、中東和拉丁美洲，全球能源監測組織（GEM）的數據顯示。</p>
</div><p>When it comes to the capacity footprint for cement and clinker - the vital ingredients in concrete - around 85% of global capacity is outside of North America and Europe.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在水泥和熟料的產能方面——混凝土的重要成分——全球約 85% 的產能位於北美和歐洲以外。</p>
</div><p>Economies across Asia, Africa and the Middle East are also leading the build-out of new steel, cement and chemicals, accounting for nearly 90% of capacity under construction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亞洲、非洲和中東的經濟體也在主導新鋼鐵、水泥和化學品的建設，佔在建產能的近 90%。</p>
</div><h3>CAPTIVE AUDIENCE</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>被動受眾</h3>
</div><p>These countries are not just cheaper places to produce raw materials. They are also some of the fastest-growing consumers of cement, steel, plastics and related products.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些國家不僅是生產原材料的更便宜地方。它們也是水泥、鋼鐵、塑料及相關產品增長最快的消費市場之一。</p>
</div><p>That combination of low operating costs and rising domestic consumption has helped reinforce the rationale for building up production capacity of those materials locally.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>低運營成本和不斷上升的國內消費的結合，進一步鞏固了在當地建立這些材料生產能力的合理性。</p>
</div><p>The build-out of the associated supply chains across trucking fleets, storage operators and processing facilities has created additional economic value and jobs, which further elevates their importance within local economies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與卡車運輸隊、儲存運營商和加工設施相關的供應鏈的建設創造了額外的經濟價值和就業機會，進一步提升了它們在當地經濟中的重要性。</p>
</div><p>Throw in the potential for developing a manufacturing sector that can upscale those materials into pricier consumer goods and it is understandable why so many countries have policies that support basic materials industries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>再加上發展一個能夠將這些材料升級為更昂貴消費品的製造業的潛力，可以理解為什麼如此多國家的政策支持基礎材料產業。</p>
</div><h3>ENERGY HOGS</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>能源消耗者</h3>
</div><p>However, such a deep dependence on raw materials for jobs and key intermediate products also shapes national power systems designed to keep these industries alive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，對原材料和關鍵中間產品的深度依賴也塑造了旨在維持這些產業生存的國家電力系統。</p>
</div><p>Making cement, steel and chemicals is notoriously energy-intensive, and producers need abundant, cheap power to stay competitive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>生產水泥、鋼鐵和化學品的過程 notoriously 耗能，生產商需要充足、廉價的電力以保持競爭力。</p>
</div><p>Many of these materials are also easily imported, which leaves local producers vulnerable to being undercut by foreign rivals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>許多這些材料也容易進口，這使得當地生產商容易受到外國競爭對手的衝擊。</p>
</div><p>That in turn pressures local authorities to ensure that operating costs remain as low as possible - especially energy costs - and to shape policy in producers’ favor.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這反過來又迫使地方當局確保運營成本儘可能低——尤其是能源成本——並制定有利於生產商的政策。</p>
</div><p>In fast-growing, cost-sensitive economies, the energy system becomes industrial policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在快速增長、對成本敏感的經濟體中，能源系統成為工業政策。</p>
</div><p>Today, much of Southeast Asia as well as parts of North and Central Africa rely on coal for much of their industrial power supplies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如今，東南亞的大部分地區以及北非和中非的部分地區依賴煤炭作為其工業電力供應的主要來源。</p>
</div><p>Extensive mining, import and storage facilities have often been developed to support and sustain that coal dependence, and coal-fired power is often among the quickest ways for those economies to ratchet up energy supplies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>為了支持和維持這種對煤炭的依賴，通常會開發廣泛的採礦、進口和儲存設施，而燃煤電力往往是這些經濟體迅速提升能源供應的最快方式。</p>
</div><p>Pushes to expand coal-fired power output may be at odds with the trends seen in more developed regions, and may reverse efforts to decarbonize energy systems.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>擴大燃煤電力輸出的努力可能與更發達地區的趨勢相悖，並可能逆轉去碳化能源系統的努力。</p>
</div><p>But as long as basic materials like cement and steel pay most of the bills and employ large workforces, producer countries may not have the luxury to accelerate energy transition efforts without upending the broader economy. {The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.} Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, and X. And listen to the Morning Bid daily podcast on Apple, Spotify, or the Reuters app. Subscribe to hear Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但只要水泥和鋼鐵等基礎材料支付大部分賬單並僱傭大量勞動力，生產國可能就沒有奢侈的空間來加速能源轉型的努力，而不破壞更廣泛的經濟。{這裏表達的觀點是作者的觀點，他是路透社的專欄作家。} 享受這篇專欄嗎？請查看路透社開放興趣（ROI），您獲取全球金融評論的必備新來源。在 LinkedIn 和 X 上關注 ROI。並在 Apple、Spotify 或路透社應用上收聽《晨間投標》每日播客。訂閲以聽取路透社記者討論市場和金融領域的重大新聞，每週七天。</p>
</div><p>Global steel, chemicals and cement capacity by region</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>按地區劃分的全球鋼鐵、化學品和水泥產能</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3M3naqa" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/3M3naqa"/></p>
<p>Top 20 countries by cement and steel capacity in operation</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>按運營中的水泥和鋼鐵產能排名前 20 的國家</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4q7tN8R" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/4q7tN8R"/></p>
<p>Top 20 countries by cement and steel capacity under construction</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>按在建水泥和鋼鐵產能排名前 20 的國家</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4k9W1Pi" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/4k9W1Pi"/></p>

舊經濟的投資回報率需求可能會阻礙新興市場的去碳化：Maguire