<p>[香港] 香港疲軟的房地產市場正在復甦，這是該市在經歷多年低迷後走向復甦的最新跡象。</p>
<p>政府數據顯示，2025 年房價上漲了 3.25%，這是四年來的首次年度增長。包括花旗集團和摩根士丹利在內的華爾街銀行預測，今年房價將進一步上漲，為該市負債累累的開發商帶來希望。</p>
<p>復甦進一步證明金融中心的前景正在好轉，預計股市將迎來又一個融資大年。國際公司正在考慮在該市開設新分支。餐廳和酒店看到遊客因大型活動和演出而回歸，而酒吧場景也贏得了讚譽。</p>
<p>來自中國大陸的購房者在該市的支出創下紀錄，幫助開發商清理庫存。降息正在推動抵押貸款需求。租金上漲促使居民購房。股市反彈激發了對豪華物業的興趣。</p>
<p>這一切都為開發商帶來了緩解，儘管他們仍在與商業房地產市場的疲軟作鬥爭。近年來，開發商被迫以大幅折扣出售住宅項目，並在某些情況下向銀行提出最後時刻的請求以延長債務。</p>
<p>“住宅市場最糟糕的時期已經過去，” DBS 集團控股的房地產分析師 Jeff Yau 表示。“隨着供需動態的改善，住宅開發商正在重新獲得定價權。”</p>
<p>在情緒變化的跡象中，新世界發展公司——幾個月前還陷入生死攸關的債務延期中——今年股價上漲了 59%，債券也從困境中反彈。知情人士透露，黑石集團正在與該開發商進行高級談判，成為其最大股東，這一舉動將為這家負債累累的公司帶來期待已久的流動性。彭博情報對香港開發商估值的指標較一年前上漲了 58%。</p>
<p>Yau 表示，近期項目的良好反響將有助於為開發商創造現金流並減少債務。</p>
<p>一些頂級開發商已經開始考慮提高現有項目的價格。在新鴻基地產的 Sierra Sea 開發項目中，最新階段的房屋平均售價為每平方英尺 11,649 港元（約合 1,890.54 新元），比去年四月的價格高出約 12%。遠東發展國際的執行董事 Jennifer Chiu 在 12 月表示，Pavilia Forest 項目現在有空間提高價格，該項目是與新世界的合資企業，單位曾以虧損出售。</p>
<p>香港金融管理局去年三次降息，跟隨美國聯邦儲備的降息步伐，減輕了開發商和購房者的貸款壓力。</p>
<p>“隨着利率的下降，這對開發商是有利的，” JLL 香港的主席 Joseph Tsang 表示。“因為他們的貸款支付也會減少，他們不需要急於以大幅折扣出售，這有助於穩定市場整體資產價格。”</p>
<p>銀行和房地產服務公司預計今年住宅價格將增長，其中摩根士丹利最為樂觀，預測將上漲 10%。包括仲量聯行和高緯物業在內的諮詢公司預計漲幅在 5% 範圍內。</p>
<h2>大陸需求</h2>
<p>來自中國大陸的買家已成為清理金融中心住房庫存的關鍵力量，2025 年支出創下 1380 億港元的紀錄。報告顯示，他們在豪華市場中最為顯著，佔價值超過 5000 萬港元物業買家的約 70%。</p>
<p>高端市場正在升温，自去年底以來，從太古地產到恆基兆業的開發商紛紛進行銷售，成為頭條新聞。</p>
<p>然而，也有謹慎的理由。香港在中美競爭的關鍵地位偶爾會給銀行家帶來麻煩。美聯儲的降息速度放緩，可能會減緩香港的寬鬆步伐，從而影響復甦。</p>
<p>野村控股在 12 月的報告中表示，缺乏中國經濟和與美國關係的實質性改善，近期房地產市場缺乏重大反彈的催化劑。</p>
<h2>辦公室過剩</h2>
<p>商業房地產領域的復甦也顯得不穩定。投資者主要關注中環和銅鑼灣等核心商業區的優質資產，而其他地區的辦公樓則在尋找租户方面面臨困難。根據 Colliers International 的報告，去年香港甲級辦公樓的空置率上升至 17.5%，租金下降約 5.8%。</p>
<p>資金充裕的金融和科技公司正在利用較低的租金和資產價格在香港擴展辦公室。包括 Point72 資產管理、Jane Street Group 和 Qube Research &amp; Technologies 在內的對沖基金最近簽署了大型辦公交易，而阿里巴巴集團和京東等中國電子商務公司則收購了辦公樓。</p>
<p>“在過去兩個月中，我們收到了大約 20 個來自大陸公司的香港辦公資產詢問，” 高緯物業中國資本市場副董事總經理 Charli Chan 表示。她領導團隊促成了阿里巴巴及其螞蟻集團在 10 月的辦公空間收購。</p>
<p>“他們中的許多人正在尋找可以容納未來三到五年業務擴展的空間，” Chan 表示。</p>
<p>根據 Colliers 的報告，2025 年超過 1 億港元的商業房地產交易增長超過 12%，這是自 2021 年以來的首次增長。除了辦公樓，學生宿舍成為吸引投資者的少數亮點，因為政府放寬了將商業建築改建為宿舍的規定。</p>
<p>商業交易主要由最終用户支持，而國際基金則大多處於觀望狀態。在看到私募股權公司難以償還貸款或失去資產後，銀行已收緊了對這些投資者的信貸額度。</p>
<p>“銀行對商業房地產項目的貸款仍然持謹慎態度，” Colliers 香港資本市場與投資服務負責人 Thomas Chak 表示。“貸方需要時間來處理不良貸款，才能再次感到舒適地提供更多貸款。”</p>
<p>儘管如此，在一個房價是經濟健康晴雨表且是信心重要來源的城市，情況終於有所好轉。</p>
<p>租金上漲也促使購房者加快購買步伐。由於政府的人才計劃吸引了大量移民，去年住宅租金創下歷史新高。自 2023 年以來，香港通過該計劃迎來了超過 23 萬名新移民。</p>
<p>“與租房相比，擁有房產的吸引力越來越大，” 恆基地產銷售總經理 Mark Hahn 表示。“存款利率下降也促使投資者將資金轉向房地產。” BLOOMBERG</p>

恆生指數

<p>香港的房地產市場正在復甦，預計 2025 年房價上漲 3.25%，這是四年來的首次年度增長。華爾街銀行預測，由於來自中國大陸買家的需求以及利率下調刺激抵押貸款需求，房價將進一步上漲。開發商正在恢復定價權，部分開發商已經提高了現有項目的價格。然而，商業房地產市場依然疲軟，鑑於地緣政治緊張局勢和美國可能的經濟放緩，建議保持謹慎。總體而言，銀行預計今年住宅價格將增長，預測範圍在 5% 到 10% 之間</p>

<p>[HONG KONG] Hong Kong’s beleaguered housing market is staging a comeback, the latest sign that the city is on the road to recovery following years of gloom.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[香港] 香港疲軟的房地產市場正在復甦，這是該市在經歷多年低迷後走向復甦的最新跡象。</p>
</div><p>Home prices rose 3.25 per cent in 2025, the first annual increase in four years, government figures showed this week. Wall Street banks including Citigroup and Morgan Stanley are predicting values will jump further this year, offering hope for the city’s debt-laden developers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政府數據顯示，2025 年房價上漲了 3.25%，這是四年來的首次年度增長。包括花旗集團和摩根士丹利在內的華爾街銀行預測，今年房價將進一步上漲，為該市負債累累的開發商帶來希望。</p>
</div><p>The revival adds to mounting evidence that things are looking up in the financial hub, underpinned by expectations for another blockbuster year of fundraising in the booming stock market. International firms are looking to open new branches in the city. Restaurants and hotels are seeing tourists returning for mega-events and shows, while the bar scene is winning acclaim.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>復甦進一步證明金融中心的前景正在好轉，預計股市將迎來又一個融資大年。國際公司正在考慮在該市開設新分支。餐廳和酒店看到遊客因大型活動和演出而回歸，而酒吧場景也贏得了讚譽。</p>
</div><p>Mainland Chinese homebuyers have spent a record amount in the city, helping builders to clear inventory. Interest-rate cuts are boosting mortgage demand. Rising rents are pushing residents to purchase homes. The stock market rally is spurring interest in luxury properties.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來自中國大陸的購房者在該市的支出創下紀錄，幫助開發商清理庫存。降息正在推動抵押貸款需求。租金上漲促使居民購房。股市反彈激發了對豪華物業的興趣。</p>
</div><p>That is all giving relief to developers, even as they continue to struggle with a commercial real estate market that remains a weak spot in the city. Builders have in recent years been forced to offload residential projects at steep discounts and, in some cases, made last-minute pleas to their banks to extend debt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一切都為開發商帶來了緩解，儘管他們仍在與商業房地產市場的疲軟作鬥爭。近年來，開發商被迫以大幅折扣出售住宅項目，並在某些情況下向銀行提出最後時刻的請求以延長債務。</p>
</div><p>“The worst for the residential market is over,” said Jeff Yau, a property analyst at DBS Group Holdings “With improving supply and demand dynamics, residential developers are regaining pricing power.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“住宅市場最糟糕的時期已經過去，” DBS 集團控股的房地產分析師 Jeff Yau 表示。“隨着供需動態的改善，住宅開發商正在重新獲得定價權。”</p>
</div><p>In a sign of the changing mood, New World Development – which just a few months ago was mired in a make-or-break debt extension – has seen its stock jump 59 per cent this year and its bonds rebound from distressed levels. Blackstone is in advanced talks to become the largest shareholder of the builder, according to people familiar with the matter, a move that would bring long-awaited liquidity to the indebted firm. A Bloomberg Intelligence gauge of Hong Kong developer valuations has climbed 58 per cent from a year ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在情緒變化的跡象中，新世界發展公司——幾個月前還陷入生死攸關的債務延期中——今年股價上漲了 59%，債券也從困境中反彈。知情人士透露，黑石集團正在與該開發商進行高級談判，成為其最大股東，這一舉動將為這家負債累累的公司帶來期待已久的流動性。彭博情報對香港開發商估值的指標較一年前上漲了 58%。</p>
</div><p>The favourable response to recent projects will help generate cash flow and cut debts for the developers, according to Yau.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Yau 表示，近期項目的良好反響將有助於為開發商創造現金流並減少債務。</p>
</div><p>Some top builders are already looking to hike prices for their existing projects. At Sun Hung Kai Properties’ Sierra Sea development, the latest phase of homes is being sold for an average of HK$11,649 (S$1,890.54) per square foot, about 12 per cent higher than the price seen last April. Far East Consortium International’s executive director Jennifer Chiu said in December that there’s now room to lift prices at the Pavilia Forest, a joint venture with New World where units had been selling at a loss.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些頂級開發商已經開始考慮提高現有項目的價格。在新鴻基地產的 Sierra Sea 開發項目中，最新階段的房屋平均售價為每平方英尺 11,649 港元（約合 1,890.54 新元），比去年四月的價格高出約 12%。遠東發展國際的執行董事 Jennifer Chiu 在 12 月表示，Pavilia Forest 項目現在有空間提高價格，該項目是與新世界的合資企業，單位曾以虧損出售。</p>
</div><p>The Hong Kong Monetary Authority lowered interest rates three times last year, in line with the US Federal Reserve’s cuts, reducing loan payment pressures for builders and homebuyers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>香港金融管理局去年三次降息，跟隨美國聯邦儲備的降息步伐，減輕了開發商和購房者的貸款壓力。</p>
</div><p>“With the interest rate coming down, it’s beneficial to the developers,” said Joseph Tsang, chairman of JLL Hong Kong. “Because their loan payments will also go down, they don’t need to rush to sell with huge discounts, and that can help to stabilise overall asset prices in the market.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“隨着利率的下降，這對開發商是有利的，” JLL 香港的主席 Joseph Tsang 表示。“因為他們的貸款支付也會減少，他們不需要急於以大幅折扣出售，這有助於穩定市場整體資產價格。”</p>
</div><p>Banks and property services firms are expecting growth in residential prices this year, with Morgan Stanley among the most bullish, projecting a 10 per cent jump. Consultancies including Jones Lang LaSalle and Cushman &amp; Wakefield see increases within a 5 per cent range.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>銀行和房地產服務公司預計今年住宅價格將增長，其中摩根士丹利最為樂觀，預測將上漲 10%。包括仲量聯行和高緯物業在內的諮詢公司預計漲幅在 5% 範圍內。</p>
</div><h2>Mainland demand</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>大陸需求</h2>
</div><p>Buyers from mainland China have become a key force for clearing housing inventory in the financial hub, spending a record HK$138 billion in 2025, according to Midland Realty. They were most prominent in the luxury market, making up about 70 per cent of buyers of properties valued at more than HK$50 million, the report showed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來自中國大陸的買家已成為清理金融中心住房庫存的關鍵力量，2025 年支出創下 1380 億港元的紀錄。報告顯示，他們在豪華市場中最為顯著，佔價值超過 5000 萬港元物業買家的約 70%。</p>
</div><p>The high-end sector has been heating up, with a flurry of sales by developers from Swire Properties to Henderson Land Development grabbing headlines since late last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高端市場正在升温，自去年底以來，從太古地產到恆基兆業的開發商紛紛進行銷售，成為頭條新聞。</p>
</div><p>There are reasons for caution, however. Hong Kong’s crucial place on the faultlines of competition between China and the US has occasionally caused headaches for bankers in the city. Slower rate cuts by the Fed, which would slow the pace of easing in Hong Kong, could also crimp the recovery.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，也有謹慎的理由。香港在中美競爭的關鍵地位偶爾會給銀行家帶來麻煩。美聯儲的降息速度放緩，可能會減緩香港的寬鬆步伐，從而影響復甦。</p>
</div><p>There are limited catalysts for any major rebound in the property market in the near term in the absence of material improvements in China’s economy and relations with the US, Nomura Holdings said in a December report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>野村控股在 12 月的報告中表示，缺乏中國經濟和與美國關係的實質性改善，近期房地產市場缺乏重大反彈的催化劑。</p>
</div><h2>Office glut</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>辦公室過剩</h2>
</div><p>The recovery in the commercial real estate sector is also looking patchy. Investors are mostly focused on trophy assets in core business districts like Central and Causeway Bay, while office towers in other areas are struggling to find tenants. The vacancy rate for Grade A offices in the city edged up to 17.5 per cent last year, and rent fell by about 5.8 per cent, according to a report by Colliers International.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>商業房地產領域的復甦也顯得不穩定。投資者主要關注中環和銅鑼灣等核心商業區的優質資產，而其他地區的辦公樓則在尋找租户方面面臨困難。根據 Colliers International 的報告，去年香港甲級辦公樓的空置率上升至 17.5%，租金下降約 5.8%。</p>
</div><p>Cash-rich financial and tech firms are taking advantage of cheaper rents and lower asset prices to expand their offices in Hong Kong. Hedge funds including Point72 Asset Management, Jane Street Group and Qube Research &amp; Technologies signed large office deals in recent months, while Chinese e-commerce companies like Alibaba Group Holding and JD.com snapped up towers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>資金充裕的金融和科技公司正在利用較低的租金和資產價格在香港擴展辦公室。包括 Point72 資產管理、Jane Street Group 和 Qube Research &amp; Technologies 在內的對沖基金最近簽署了大型辦公交易，而阿里巴巴集團和京東等中國電子商務公司則收購了辦公樓。</p>
</div><p>“We’ve received about 20 inquiries for Hong Kong office assets from mainland companies over the past two months,” said Charli Chan, deputy managing director of China capital markets at Cushman &amp; Wakefield. She led the team to facilitate the office space acquisition by Alibaba and its Ant Group affiliate in October.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在過去兩個月中，我們收到了大約 20 個來自大陸公司的香港辦公資產詢問，” 高緯物業中國資本市場副董事總經理 Charli Chan 表示。她領導團隊促成了阿里巴巴及其螞蟻集團在 10 月的辦公空間收購。</p>
</div><p>“Many of them are looking for space that can accommodate their business expansion in the next three to five years,” Chan said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“他們中的許多人正在尋找可以容納未來三到五年業務擴展的空間，” Chan 表示。</p>
</div><p>Commercial real estate transactions above HK$100 million rose more than 12 per cent in 2025, the first increase since 2021, according to the Colliers report. Other than offices, student hostels were a rare bright spot attracting investors, after the government relaxed rules on converting commercial buildings into dormitories.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 Colliers 的報告，2025 年超過 1 億港元的商業房地產交易增長超過 12%，這是自 2021 年以來的首次增長。除了辦公樓，學生宿舍成為吸引投資者的少數亮點，因為政府放寬了將商業建築改建為宿舍的規定。</p>
</div><p>Commercial deals are mainly being supported by end users, while international funds remain largely on the sidelines. Banks have been tightening credit lines for such investors after seeing private equity firms struggle to repay loans or forfeit assets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>商業交易主要由最終用户支持，而國際基金則大多處於觀望狀態。在看到私募股權公司難以償還貸款或失去資產後，銀行已收緊了對這些投資者的信貸額度。</p>
</div><p>“Banks remain wary of lending to commercial real estate projects,” said Thomas Chak, head of capital markets &amp; investment services at Colliers Hong Kong. “Lenders will take time to deal with their non-performing loans before they feel comfortable lending more again.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“銀行對商業房地產項目的貸款仍然持謹慎態度，” Colliers 香港資本市場與投資服務負責人 Thomas Chak 表示。“貸方需要時間來處理不良貸款，才能再次感到舒適地提供更多貸款。”</p>
</div><p>Still, in a city where home prices are a barometre for economic health – and a crucial source of confidence – things are finally looking up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，在一個房價是經濟健康晴雨表且是信心重要來源的城市，情況終於有所好轉。</p>
</div><p>Rising rents have also prompted homebuyers to expedite purchases. Residential rents hit a record high last year, thanks to a flood of migrants entering the city on the government’s talent programme. Hong Kong has seen more than 230,000 new arrivals via the scheme since 2023.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>租金上漲也促使購房者加快購買步伐。由於政府的人才計劃吸引了大量移民，去年住宅租金創下歷史新高。自 2023 年以來，香港通過該計劃迎來了超過 23 萬名新移民。</p>
</div><p>“Home ownership is increasingly attractive compared to renting,” said Mark Hahn, a general manager of sales at Henderson Land. “Falling deposit rates have also prompted investors to shift capital into real estate.” BLOOMBERG</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“與租房相比，擁有房產的吸引力越來越大，” 恆基地產銷售總經理 Mark Hahn 表示。“存款利率下降也促使投資者將資金轉向房地產。” BLOOMBERG</p>
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香港的房地產市場隨着城市活力的恢復而反彈