<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/user_content/ckimages/orig_gold%20money.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1105" height="634" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/user_content/ckimages/orig_gold%20money.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>圖片來源：Pexels</em></p>
<p><strong>市場對媒體報道凱文·沃什今天將被提名接替美聯儲主席鮑威爾的消息做出了劇烈反應</strong>。一方面，沃什被認為是鷹派，但另一方面，特朗普政府顯然希望降低利率。最初的反應是覆蓋空頭美元頭寸，外匯市場出現了劇烈波動。然而，歐洲市場的交易量顯示美元放棄了一些漲幅。美國參與者的反應仍在等待中。與此同時，似乎達成了一項協議，至少在接下來的幾周內將避免再次關閉聯邦政府。</p>
<p><strong>歐元區報告的第四季度 GDP 略好於預期（環比增長 0.3%），一些初步數據表明該地區 1 月份的 CPI 仍低於 2%。</strong> 日本報告的東京 CPI 低於預期，零售銷售大幅下滑，工業產出小幅下降。這些數據似乎支持日本銀行的謹慎態度。</p>
<h3><strong>價格</strong></h3>
<p>G10</p>
<p>• 在週二的大幅波動後，<strong>歐元</strong> 在連續第二個交易日內維持在當天的區間內（約 1.1850-1.2080）。昨天，歐元未能突破 1.20 或跌破 1.19。關於沃什今天被提名接替美聯儲主席鮑威爾的猜測加劇，歐元升至 1.1895。雖然有所回穩，但未能大幅回升至 1.1940 以上。明天到期的 6 億歐元期權在 1.19。還有一項較小但仍然重要的 22 億歐元期權在 1.1925 到期。</p>
<p>• 昨天，美元對 <strong>日元</strong> 的交易範圍是五個交易日中最窄的（約 152.70 日元-153.55 日元）。在 152.00 日元附近似乎形成了一個支撐位。疲軟的東京 CPI、令人失望的零售銷售和美國收益率的上升使美元今天升至約 154.40 日元。自上週五高點以來，美元下跌的 38.2% 回撤位接近 154.80 日元。日本銀行的數據確認 1 月份沒有發生實質性干預。</p>
<p>• <strong>英鎊</strong> 跌破週三的低點，但在跌破 1.3745 美元時出現了新的買盤。昨天，英鎊在北美下午幾乎達到了 1.3810 美元。今天，英鎊在美元反彈中被賣至 1.3725 美元。初步下行風險可能延伸至 1.3690-1.3700 美元。今天到期的 5.22 億英鎊期權在 1.3800 美元。</p>
<p>• 美元對 <strong>加元</strong> 的近期跌勢延續，首次跌破 1.35 加元。今天到期的 18 億加元期權在 1.35 加元。然而，在今天的廣泛反彈中，美元幾乎達到了 1.3555 加元。昨天的高點接近 1.3580 加元，這也對應於自週二高點（約 1.3740 加元）以來的 38.2% 回撤位。</p>
<p>• <strong>澳元</strong> 在週三的區間內兩邊交易，形成了大約 0.6970-0.7095 的區間。在記錄低點後，澳元在北美下午回升至 0.7040 美元。今天未能大幅上漲（約 0.7055 美元），隨後被賣至約 0.6970 美元。初步阻力現在被視為在 0.7010 美元附近。</p>
<p>EM</p>
<p>• <strong>墨西哥比索</strong> 昨天大致橫盤，偏弱。美元在連續第三個交易日找到支撐，接近 17.10 比索。昨天的擠壓使美元升至 17.3455 比索，略低於週二的高點。在記錄高點後，美元回落至 17.20 比索。今天美元依然堅挺，短暫交易略高於昨天的高點。若突破 17.38 比索，可能會推動向 17.50 比索的上漲。</p>
<p>• 美元對離岸 <strong>人民幣</strong> 接近本週最佳水平。週二記錄在 CNH6.9565。今天的高點略高於 CNH6.9535。然而，中國人民銀行將美元的參考匯率下調至 CNY6.9680，這是自 2023 年第二季度以來的新低。請注意，這是美元連續第十週對在岸人民幣貶值。在此期間，人民幣升值約 2.2%。</p>
<p>• <strong>印度盧比</strong> 依然疲軟。本週中央銀行的干預似乎輕微且不具攻擊性。盧比昨天跌至歷史低點，今天在該水平附近整理。美元昨天幾乎達到了 INR92.0165，今天略低於 INR92.0。</p>
<h3><strong>其他市場</strong></h3>
<p>• <strong>股票</strong> 市場表現不一。亞太地區大多數大型交易所下跌，MSCI 地區指數結束了六天的上漲。或許受到第四季度 GDP 數據略好於預期的影響，歐洲的 Stoxx 600 上漲約 0.35%。美國指數期貨指向大幅低開。</p>
<p>• 基準 <strong>10 年期收益率</strong> 今天上漲 1-2 個基點。請注意，標準普爾今天宣佈結束對意大利信用評級的審查。10 年期美國國債收益率上漲了略多於 2 個基點，接近 4.26%。10 年期日本國債收益率下降不到一個基點，但曲線長端的收益率略有上升。</p>
<p>• <strong>黃金</strong> 在昨天北美交易結束時從 5375 美元暴跌至今天早些時候的 4943 美元。它在歐洲交易中回升至約 5120 美元。銀價從昨天的 115 美元以上暴跌至今天的 95 美元，隨後在歐洲回升至 100 美元以上。</p>
<p>• 在昨天飆升 3.5% 後，<strong>3 月 WTI</strong> 今天保持整理，交易較為平靜。其交易區間大約在 63.65-65.85 美元之間，今天在歐洲早盤交易中略低於 65 美元。</p>
<h3><strong>數據</strong></h3>
<p>• 預計 12 月 <strong>美國</strong>PPI 略有放緩，整體通脹率從 3.0% 降至 2.8%，核心通脹率從 3.0% 降至 2.9%。預計影響不大。下週的關注點將回到勞動力市場，包括 JOLTS 和 1 月份的非農就業報告。彭博社調查的中位數預測為增加 70,000 個崗位，失業率穩定在 4.4%。</p>
<p>• 超出預期的 11 月貿易逆差可能預示着 <strong>加拿大</strong> 今天 11 月 GDP 數據的下行風險。彭博社調查的中位數預測在貿易數據公佈前為增長 0.1%（10 月為-0.3%）。加拿大央行本週早些時候維持利率不變，市場預計政策在年末之前不會改變。</p>
<p>• <strong>墨西哥</strong> 經濟預計在第三季度表現不佳後有所反彈。預計第四季度經濟增長 0.6%，同比增速為 1.3%。第三季度經濟收縮 0.3%，同比增速為-0.1%。中央銀行下週召開會議。在 2025 年將目標利率下調 300 個基點後，預計將保持不變，直到年末。</p>
<p>• <strong>歐元區</strong> 經濟在第四季度增長 0.3%，與第三季度持平。失業率在 12 月降至 6.2%，低於 6.3%，與歷史最低水平持平。與此同時，德國各州報告了 1 月 CPI，國家的歐盟統一數據預計略微下降 0.2%，但由於基數效應，同比增速看起來保持在 2.0%。法國報告 12 月家庭消費下降 0.6%，為連續第二個月下降。西班牙的消費者通脹統一指標在 1 月下降 0.7%，使得同比增速從 2.9% 降至 2.5%。</p>
<p>• <strong>英國</strong> 報告了消費者信貸增長放緩，但 12 月抵押貸款小幅增加。市場影響不大。英國央行下週召開會議，廣泛預計將基準利率維持在 3.75% 不變。</p>
<p>• <strong>澳大利亞</strong> 報告了堅挺的第四季度生產者價格：同比增長 3.5%，與第三季度持平。私營部門信貸增長 0.8%，在連續四個月增長 0.6% 後回升。彭博社的經濟學家調查中約有四分之三的受訪者預計下週將加息。期貨市場對加息的預期約為三分之二。</p>
<p>• 東京報告了 1 月 CPI 疲軟，而 <strong>日本</strong> 報告了 12 月零售銷售和工業生產疲軟。CPI 從 2.0% 降至 1.5%，核心 CPI 從 2.3% 降至 2.0%。這是工業產出連續第二次下降，去年總共下降七次，儘管 0.1% 的下降略低於預期。零售銷售大幅下降 2.0%。中位數預測為下降 0.5%。這是自 8 月以來的首次下降。中國遊客的抵制可能起到了一定作用。日本經濟在第四季度同比可能增長 1.2%，價格壓力有所緩解。儘管美國呼籲日本加息，但根據亞特蘭大聯邦儲備銀行的追蹤，美國經濟增長超過 5%，特朗普政府繼續呼籲美聯儲積極放寬政策。</p>
<p>• <strong>中國</strong> 將在明天第一時間公佈 1 月 PMI。預計與 12 月變化不大，當時綜合 PMI 為 50.7。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多來自此作者：</em></p>
<p>美元波動但在北美交易時段前變化不大</p>
<p>美元回吐了昨日部分劇烈損失</p>
<p>美元大部分時間保持整固，而日元波動則顯示市場緊張</p>

<p>美元的走勢受到關於凱文·沃什可能被提名為美聯儲主席的猜測影響，導致外匯市場出現波動。儘管歐元在狹窄範圍內穩定，但美元對其他貨幣的表現則顯得參差不齊，包括對加元的下跌以及對日元和英鎊的波動。來自歐元區和日本的經濟數據表明增長謹慎，而美國股市則指向低開。總體而言，市場正在對政治動態和經濟指標作出反應</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/user_content/ckimages/orig_gold%20money.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://talkmarkets.com/user_content/ckimages/orig_gold%20money.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Pexels</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>圖片來源：Pexels</em></p>
</div><p><strong>The market reacted dramatically to media reports that Kevin Warsh will be nominated today to succeed Federal Reserve Chair Powell at the held of the US central bank</strong>. On one hand, Warsh is perceived to be a hawk, but on the other hand, there is little doubt that the Trump administration seeks lower interest rates. The initial reaction was to cover short dollar exposure and there were dramatic moves in the foreign exchange market. However, European turnover has seen the greenback surrender some of its gains. The reaction of US participants is awaited. Meanwhile, it appears an agreement has been struck that will avoid another federal government shutdown, for at least a couple of weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>市場對媒體報道凱文·沃什今天將被提名接替美聯儲主席鮑威爾的消息做出了劇烈反應</strong>。一方面，沃什被認為是鷹派，但另一方面，特朗普政府顯然希望降低利率。最初的反應是覆蓋空頭美元頭寸，外匯市場出現了劇烈波動。然而，歐洲市場的交易量顯示美元放棄了一些漲幅。美國參與者的反應仍在等待中。與此同時，似乎達成了一項協議，至少在接下來的幾周內將避免再次關閉聯邦政府。</p>
</div><p><strong>The eurozone reported slightly better Q4 GDP than expected (0.3% quarter-over-quarter) and some preliminary figures suggest January CPI in the region remained below 2%.</strong> Japan reports softer than expected Tokyo CPI, a sharp drop in retail sales and small decline in industrial output. The data seem to support the cautious Bank of Japan.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>歐元區報告的第四季度 GDP 略好於預期（環比增長 0.3%），一些初步數據表明該地區 1 月份的 CPI 仍低於 2%。</strong> 日本報告的東京 CPI 低於預期，零售銷售大幅下滑，工業產出小幅下降。這些數據似乎支持日本銀行的謹慎態度。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Prices</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>價格</strong></h3>
</div><p>G10</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>G10</p>
</div><p>• After the large move on Tuesday, the <strong>euro</strong> spent the second consecutive session inside that day’s range (~$1.1850-$1.2080). Yesterday, it did not trade above $1.20 or below $1.19. Heightened speculation about Warsh being nominated today to succeed Fed Chair Powell sent the euro to $1.1895. It steadied but has not been able to resurface much above $1.1940. Options for 6 bln euros at $1.19 expire tomorrow. A smaller, but still significant option for 2.2 bln euros expire at $1.1925.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• 在週二的大幅波動後，<strong>歐元</strong> 在連續第二個交易日內維持在當天的區間內（約 1.1850-1.2080）。昨天，歐元未能突破 1.20 或跌破 1.19。關於沃什今天被提名接替美聯儲主席鮑威爾的猜測加劇，歐元升至 1.1895。雖然有所回穩，但未能大幅回升至 1.1940 以上。明天到期的 6 億歐元期權在 1.19。還有一項較小但仍然重要的 22 億歐元期權在 1.1925 到期。</p>
</div><p>• The dollar traded in its narrowest range in five sessions against the <strong>yen</strong> yesterday (~JPY152.70-JPY153.55). A shelf appears forged Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of JPY152.00. Soft Tokyo CPI, disappointing retail sales, and firm US yields lifted the greenback to about JPY154.40 today. The (38.2%) retracement of the dollar’s drop since last Friday’s high is near JPY154.80. BOJ data confirms no material intervention took place in January.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• 昨天，美元對 <strong>日元</strong> 的交易範圍是五個交易日中最窄的（約 152.70 日元-153.55 日元）。在 152.00 日元附近似乎形成了一個支撐位。疲軟的東京 CPI、令人失望的零售銷售和美國收益率的上升使美元今天升至約 154.40 日元。自上週五高點以來，美元下跌的 38.2% 回撤位接近 154.80 日元。日本銀行的數據確認 1 月份沒有發生實質性干預。</p>
</div><p>• <strong>Sterling</strong> fell through Wednesday’s low but new buying emerged on the dip below $1.3745. Sterling reached almost $1.3810 in the North American afternoon yesterday. Sterling was sold to $1.3725 amid the greenback’s rebound today. Initial downside risk may extend to $1.3690-$1.3700. Options for GBP522 mln at $1.3800 expire today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>英鎊</strong> 跌破週三的低點，但在跌破 1.3745 美元時出現了新的買盤。昨天，英鎊在北美下午幾乎達到了 1.3810 美元。今天，英鎊在美元反彈中被賣至 1.3725 美元。初步下行風險可能延伸至 1.3690-1.3700 美元。今天到期的 5.22 億英鎊期權在 1.3800 美元。</p>
</div><p>• The greenback extended is recent losses against the <strong>Canadian dollar</strong> and traded below CAD1.35 for the first time since October 2024. Options for $1.8 bln at CAD1.35 expire today. However, on the broad recovery today, the greenback reached nearly CAD1.3555. Yesterday’s high was near CAD1.3580, which also corresponds to the (38.2%) retracement of the drop since Tuesday’s high (~CAD1.3740).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• 美元對 <strong>加元</strong> 的近期跌勢延續，首次跌破 1.35 加元。今天到期的 18 億加元期權在 1.35 加元。然而，在今天的廣泛反彈中，美元幾乎達到了 1.3555 加元。昨天的高點接近 1.3580 加元，這也對應於自週二高點（約 1.3740 加元）以來的 38.2% 回撤位。</p>
</div><p>• The <strong>Australian dollar</strong> traded on both sides of Wednesday’s range and carved out a roughly $0.6970-$0.7095 range. After the low was recorded, the Aussie returned to the $0.7040 level in the North American afternoon. It did not get much higher today (~$0.7055) before being sold to about $0.6970. Initial resistance now is seen around $0.7010.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>澳元</strong> 在週三的區間內兩邊交易，形成了大約 0.6970-0.7095 的區間。在記錄低點後，澳元在北美下午回升至 0.7040 美元。今天未能大幅上漲（約 0.7055 美元），隨後被賣至約 0.6970 美元。初步阻力現在被視為在 0.7010 美元附近。</p>
</div><p>EM</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>EM</p>
</div><p>• The <strong>Mexican peso</strong> moved broadly sideways yesterday with a weaker bias. For the third consecutive session, greenback found support ahead of MXN17.10. Yesterday’s squeeze took the dollar to MXN17.3455, holding slightly below Tuesday’s high. After the high was recorded, the dollar pulled back toward MXN17.20. The dollar remains firm today and briefly traded slightly above yesterday’s highs. A move above MXN17.38 could spur a push toward MXN17.50.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>墨西哥比索</strong> 昨天大致橫盤，偏弱。美元在連續第三個交易日找到支撐，接近 17.10 比索。昨天的擠壓使美元升至 17.3455 比索，略低於週二的高點。在記錄高點後，美元回落至 17.20 比索。今天美元依然堅挺，短暫交易略高於昨天的高點。若突破 17.38 比索，可能會推動向 17.50 比索的上漲。</p>
</div><p>• The US dollar is near the best level of the week against the offshore <strong>yuan</strong>. It was recorded Tuesday near CNH6.9565. Today’s high is slightly above CNH6.9535. Still, the PBOC lowered the dollar’s reference rate to CNY6.9680, a new low since the Q2 2023. Note this is the tenth consecutive week that the dollar has fallen against the onshore yuan. During this run the yuan has appreciated by about 2.2%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• 美元對離岸 <strong>人民幣</strong> 接近本週最佳水平。週二記錄在 CNH6.9565。今天的高點略高於 CNH6.9535。然而，中國人民銀行將美元的參考匯率下調至 CNY6.9680，這是自 2023 年第二季度以來的新低。請注意，這是美元連續第十週對在岸人民幣貶值。在此期間，人民幣升值約 2.2%。</p>
</div><p>• The <strong>Indian rupee</strong> remains soft. The central bank’s intervention this week seemed light and unaggressive. The rupee fell to a record low yesterday and is consolidating near it today. The dollar reached almost INR92.0165 yesterday and today it has held slightly below INR92.0</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>印度盧比</strong> 依然疲軟。本週中央銀行的干預似乎輕微且不具攻擊性。盧比昨天跌至歷史低點，今天在該水平附近整理。美元昨天幾乎達到了 INR92.0165，今天略低於 INR92.0。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Other Markets</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>其他市場</strong></h3>
</div><p>• <strong>Equities</strong> are mixed. Most of the large bourses in the Asis Pacific fell and the MSCI index of the region snapped a six-day advance. Perhaps helped by slightly stronger than expected Q4 GDP figures, Europe’s Stoxx 600 is up about 0.35%. US index futures are pointing to a sharply lower opening.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>股票</strong> 市場表現不一。亞太地區大多數大型交易所下跌，MSCI 地區指數結束了六天的上漲。或許受到第四季度 GDP 數據略好於預期的影響，歐洲的 Stoxx 600 上漲約 0.35%。美國指數期貨指向大幅低開。</p>
</div><p>• Benchmark <strong>10-year yields</strong> are 1-2 bp firmer today. Note that S&amp;P announces the conclusion of its review of Italy’s credit rating today. The 10-year US Treasury yield is about a little more than 2 bp to approach 4.26%. The 10-year JGB yield softened by less than a basis point but the yields at the long-end of the curve were slightly firmer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• 基準 <strong>10 年期收益率</strong> 今天上漲 1-2 個基點。請注意，標準普爾今天宣佈結束對意大利信用評級的審查。10 年期美國國債收益率上漲了略多於 2 個基點，接近 4.26%。10 年期日本國債收益率下降不到一個基點，但曲線長端的收益率略有上升。</p>
</div><p>• <strong>Gold</strong> was slammed from $5375 in late North American trading yesterday to almost $4943 earlier today. It has recovered to around $5120 in European turnover. Silver tumbled from above $115 yesterday to almost $95 today. It has recovered through $100 in Europe.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>黃金</strong> 在昨天北美交易結束時從 5375 美元暴跌至今天早些時候的 4943 美元。它在歐洲交易中回升至約 5120 美元。銀價從昨天的 115 美元以上暴跌至今天的 95 美元，隨後在歐洲回升至 100 美元以上。</p>
</div><p>• After soaring 3.5% yesterday, <strong>March WTI</strong> is consolidating, quieter today. It is roughly $63.65-$65.85 range and is a little below $65 in late European morning turnover.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• 在昨天飆升 3.5% 後，<strong>3 月 WTI</strong> 今天保持整理，交易較為平靜。其交易區間大約在 63.65-65.85 美元之間，今天在歐洲早盤交易中略低於 65 美元。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Data</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>數據</strong></h3>
</div><p>• The December <strong>US</strong> PPI is expected to have softened slightly, with the headline rate slowing to 2.8% from 3.0% and the core rate ticking down to 2.9% from 3.0%. Little impact is likely. Attention next week turns back to the labor market with JOLTS and the January non-farm payroll report. The median projection in Bloomberg’ survey is for a70k increase, with the unemployment rate stable at 4.4%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• 預計 12 月 <strong>美國</strong>PPI 略有放緩，整體通脹率從 3.0% 降至 2.8%，核心通脹率從 3.0% 降至 2.9%。預計影響不大。下週的關注點將回到勞動力市場，包括 JOLTS 和 1 月份的非農就業報告。彭博社調查的中位數預測為增加 70,000 個崗位，失業率穩定在 4.4%。</p>
</div><p>• The larger than expected November trade deficit may warn of downside risks to <strong>Canada’s</strong> November GDP print today. The median forecast in Bloomberg’s survey was for a 0.1% growth (-0.3% in October) before the trade figures. The Bank of Canada left rates on hold earlier this week and the market expects policy to be unchanged until late in the year at the earliest.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• 超出預期的 11 月貿易逆差可能預示着 <strong>加拿大</strong> 今天 11 月 GDP 數據的下行風險。彭博社調查的中位數預測在貿易數據公佈前為增長 0.1%（10 月為-0.3%）。加拿大央行本週早些時候維持利率不變，市場預計政策在年末之前不會改變。</p>
</div><p>• <strong>Mexico’s</strong> economy is expected to have rebounded after a poor Q3. The economy is expected to grow by 0.6% in Q4 for a 1.3% year-over-year pace. In Q3, the economy contracted by 0.3% and the year-over-year rate was -0.1%. The central bank meets next week. After cutting its target rate by 300 bp in 2025, it is expected to stand pat until later in the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>墨西哥</strong> 經濟預計在第三季度表現不佳後有所反彈。預計第四季度經濟增長 0.6%，同比增速為 1.3%。第三季度經濟收縮 0.3%，同比增速為-0.1%。中央銀行下週召開會議。在 2025 年將目標利率下調 300 個基點後，預計將保持不變，直到年末。</p>
</div><p>• The <strong>eurozone</strong> economy grew by 0.3% in Q4 to match growth in Q3. The unemployment rate slipped in December to 6.2% from 6.3%, matching the record low. Separately, German states reported January CPI, and the national EU harmonized reading, due shortly, may have slipped 0.2% but due to the base effect, the year-over-year rate looks unchanged at 2.0%. France reported a 0.6 drop in household consumption in December, the second consecutive monthly decline. Spain’s harmonized measure of consumer inflation fell 0.7% in January, pushing the year-over-year rate to 2.5% from 2.9%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>歐元區</strong> 經濟在第四季度增長 0.3%，與第三季度持平。失業率在 12 月降至 6.2%，低於 6.3%，與歷史最低水平持平。與此同時，德國各州報告了 1 月 CPI，國家的歐盟統一數據預計略微下降 0.2%，但由於基數效應，同比增速看起來保持在 2.0%。法國報告 12 月家庭消費下降 0.6%，為連續第二個月下降。西班牙的消費者通脹統一指標在 1 月下降 0.7%，使得同比增速從 2.9% 降至 2.5%。</p>
</div><p>• The <strong>UK</strong> reported slower expansion of consumer credit but a small increase in mortgage lending in December. There was little market impact. The Bank of England meets next week and is widely expected to hold the base rate steady at 3.75%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>英國</strong> 報告了消費者信貸增長放緩，但 12 月抵押貸款小幅增加。市場影響不大。英國央行下週召開會議，廣泛預計將基準利率維持在 3.75% 不變。</p>
</div><p>• <strong>Australia</strong> reported firm Q4 producer prices: 3.5% year-over-year, the same pace as in Q3. Private sector credit expanded by 0.8%, after four months of 0.6% increases. About three quarters of the economist survey by Bloomberg, three-quarters expect a hike next week. The futures market has about 2/3 chance of a hike discounted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>澳大利亞</strong> 報告了堅挺的第四季度生產者價格：同比增長 3.5%，與第三季度持平。私營部門信貸增長 0.8%，在連續四個月增長 0.6% 後回升。彭博社的經濟學家調查中約有四分之三的受訪者預計下週將加息。期貨市場對加息的預期約為三分之二。</p>
</div><p>• Tokyo reported softer January CPI, while <strong>Japan</strong> reported weaker December retail sales and industrial production. The CPI fell to 1.5% from 2.0% and the core rate eased to 2.0% from 2.3%. It is the second consecutive decline in industrial output and the seventh last year, though the 0.1% decline was slightly less than expected. Retail sales fell by a dramatic 2.0%. The median projection was for a 0.5% decline. It is the first decline since August. The boycott of Chinese tourists may have play a role. Japan’s economy may have expanded by 1.2% year-over-year in Q4 and price pressures a moderating. While the US has called on Japan to raise rates, the US economy is expanding at more than 5% according to the Atlanta Fed’s tracker and the Trump administration continues to call on the Fed to ease policy aggressively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• 東京報告了 1 月 CPI 疲軟，而 <strong>日本</strong> 報告了 12 月零售銷售和工業生產疲軟。CPI 從 2.0% 降至 1.5%，核心 CPI 從 2.3% 降至 2.0%。這是工業產出連續第二次下降，去年總共下降七次，儘管 0.1% 的下降略低於預期。零售銷售大幅下降 2.0%。中位數預測為下降 0.5%。這是自 8 月以來的首次下降。中國遊客的抵制可能起到了一定作用。日本經濟在第四季度同比可能增長 1.2%，價格壓力有所緩解。儘管美國呼籲日本加息，但根據亞特蘭大聯邦儲備銀行的追蹤，美國經濟增長超過 5%，特朗普政府繼續呼籲美聯儲積極放寬政策。</p>
</div><p>• <strong>China</strong> reports its January PMI first thing tomorrow. It is expected to be little changed from December, when the composite was at 50.7.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>中國</strong> 將在明天第一時間公佈 1 月 PMI。預計與 12 月變化不大，當時綜合 PMI 為 50.7。</p>
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