<p>市場緊張局勢在 1 月 29 日升級，隨之而來的是一場大規模的清算事件，導致各類資產損失數十億美元。此次拋售波及黃金和加密貨幣，明顯引發資金流入比特幣及其他風險市場。</p>
<p>比特幣 [BTC]，全球市值最大的加密貨幣，跌至約 81,000 美元，這是自 2025 年 4 月以來的最低水平，使其市值降至約 1.64 萬億美元。</p>
<p>然而，黃金遭受了更為嚴重的打擊。在同一時期，黃金的市場價值幾乎蒸發了 1.60 萬億美元，損失接近比特幣整體市值的規模。</p>
<p>儘管如此，分析師們認為，整體形勢可能最終有利於比特幣，市場對資金輪換的預期日益增強，這可能會定義市場的下一個階段。</p>
<h2><strong>早期信號指向黃金向比特幣的輪換</strong></h2>
<p>市場分析師兼 Alphractal 創始人 João Pedro 幾周前就已指出輪換的可能性。</p>
<p>在之前的一篇文章中，他提到黃金正接近 “買入高潮”，這一階段通常會伴隨清算事件和比特幣的短期疲軟。此後，這一序列幾乎如預期般展開。</p>
<p>根據 João 的説法，黃金最近的上漲反映了後期買家的湧入，推動了動能的上升。從歷史上看，這一階段往往會恢復 “樂觀和自滿”，然後轉入橫盤價格走勢，黃金現在可能正進入這一領域。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“隨着流動性逐漸退出黃金，資金轉向風險資產的概率增加。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>對於許多投資者來説，主要的加密貨幣仍然是首選的風險資產，比特幣則牢牢處於流動性和市場關注的中心。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/IMG_0501.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/IMG_0501.jpeg"/></p>
<p>來源：TradingView</p>
<p>João 的觀點得到了瑞士區塊鏈公司 Swissblock 首席宏觀經濟學家 Henrik Zeberg 的呼應，他認為 BTC-黃金比率可能正在形成長期底部。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“BTC-黃金比率的底部已經形成。讓輪換開始。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>雖然沒有明確的時間表來説明這一過渡可能需要多長時間，但更廣泛的含義指向比特幣資本流入的恢復。</p>
<p>João 強化了這一展望，表示：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“從歷史上看，這一階段通常會持續數月，並且與比特幣在週期中遵循的歷史分形密切相關——大型機構資本在此窗口期內會積極重新配置到比特幣。”</p>
</blockquote>
<h2><strong>看漲條件開始為比特幣對齊</strong></h2>
<p>根據 Bitwise 歐洲研究負責人 André Dragosch 的説法，看漲市場情緒正在逐漸形成，他認為貴金屬的持續強勁最終可能支持比特幣的再次上漲。</p>
<p>Dragosch 將這一展望與再通脹聯繫在一起，這一階段的特點是旨在刺激經濟活動的政策。他認為，缺乏這種宏觀順風因素延遲了風險偏好，但並未消除比特幣的長期吸引力。</p>
<p>儘管宏觀背景具有挑戰性，他指出，比特幣交易所交易產品（ETP）和企業財政持有的比特幣的敞口增加了約 4.2 倍，突顯出機構信心的增強。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/IMG_0499.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/IMG_0499.jpeg"/></p>
<p>來源：Bitwise</p>
<p>他補充説，幾個催化劑可能推動下一輪上漲，包括 ISM 製造業指數的趨勢、新任美聯儲主席的任命、主要美國證券公司對比特幣 ETF 的資本部署增加，以及更多公司採用比特幣財政策略。</p>
<p>在談到相對估值時，Dragosch 指出：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“無論從哪個角度看，BTC-黃金比率都被嚴重低估和超賣。” 並補充説，“BTC/黃金之間的相對錶現往往與全球風險偏好相伴隨。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>他強調，比特幣在風險偏好環境中表現最佳，而在投資者退回到防禦性佈局時則表現不佳。</p>
<p>Dragosch 還強調了一個反覆出現的市場模式：黃金通常首先上漲，領先比特幣四到七個月，之後比特幣往往在百分比上表現更佳。</p>
<h2><strong>短期疲軟測試關鍵技術水平</strong></h2>
<p>比特幣已跌破其兩年簡單移動平均線（SMA），這一水平之前曾作為關鍵支撐區。</p>
<p>如果持續低於這一閾值，可能會使該資產面臨進一步的下行壓力，尤其是在看跌動能持續的情況下。</p>
<p>然而，歷史表明，這一階段通常為重大反彈奠定基礎。在之前的週期中，跌破兩年 SMA 的情況與長期投資者的持續積累相吻合，隨後迎來了更廣泛的牛市。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/IMG_0500.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/IMG_0500.jpeg"/></p>
<p>來源：Alphractal</p>
<p>這與黃金向比特幣的逐步資本輪換的主流敍事相符，這可能會看到大型機構及其客户在新一輪反彈出現之前悄然建立頭寸，再次沒有明確的時間表。</p>
<hr/>
<h2>最後思考</h2>
<ul>
<li><em>如果資本繼續從黃金轉向風險資產，比特幣將受益，儘管目前尚無明確的時間表來説明這一轉變何時可能顯著加速。</em></li>
<li><em>經濟緩解和更廣泛的風險偏好環境的結合，最終可能為持續上漲提供所需的催化劑。</em></li>
</ul>

<p>分析師警告黃金可能出現 “買入高潮”，這暗示資本可能轉向比特幣。在 1 月 29 日經歷了一次重大拋售後，比特幣的價值降至約 81,000 美元，而黃金的市場價值損失近 1.6 萬億美元。分析師，包括 João Pedro 和 André Dragosch，預測由於機構投資者的興趣和宏觀經濟因素，資金將從黃金轉向比特幣。儘管比特幣最近跌破了其兩年移動平均線，但歷史模式表明，這可能為未來的反彈鋪平道路，因為資本重新配置到比特幣等風險資產中</p>

<p>Market tension escalated on the 29th of January, following a large-scale liquidation event that wiped billions of dollars across asset classes. The sell-off hit both gold and cryptocurrencies, triggering visible capital movement into Bitcoin and other risk markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場緊張局勢在 1 月 29 日升級，隨之而來的是一場大規模的清算事件，導致各類資產損失數十億美元。此次拋售波及黃金和加密貨幣，明顯引發資金流入比特幣及其他風險市場。</p>
</div><p>Bitcoin [BTC], the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market value, fell to around $81,000, a level last seen in April 2025, dragging its market capitalization down to roughly $1.64 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特幣 [BTC]，全球市值最大的加密貨幣，跌至約 81,000 美元，這是自 2025 年 4 月以來的最低水平，使其市值降至約 1.64 萬億美元。</p>
</div><p>Gold, however, suffered a more severe blow. Nearly $1.60 trillion was erased from its market value over the same period, a loss approaching the size of Bitcoin’s entire market capitalization.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，黃金遭受了更為嚴重的打擊。在同一時期，黃金的市場價值幾乎蒸發了 1.60 萬億美元，損失接近比特幣整體市值的規模。</p>
</div><p>Still, analysts argue the broader setup may ultimately favor Bitcoin, with growing expectations that capital rotation could define the market’s next phase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，分析師們認為，整體形勢可能最終有利於比特幣，市場對資金輪換的預期日益增強，這可能會定義市場的下一個階段。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Early signals point to a gold-to-Bitcoin rotation</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>早期信號指向黃金向比特幣的輪換</strong></h2>
</div><p>João Pedro, a market analyst and founder of Alphractal, had flagged the possibility of a rotation weeks earlier.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場分析師兼 Alphractal 創始人 João Pedro 幾周前就已指出輪換的可能性。</p>
</div><p>In a prior post, he noted that gold was approaching a ‘Buy Climax,’ a phase often followed by a liquidation event and temporary weakness in Bitcoin. That sequence has since unfolded almost precisely as anticipated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在之前的一篇文章中，他提到黃金正接近 “買入高潮”，這一階段通常會伴隨清算事件和比特幣的短期疲軟。此後，這一序列幾乎如預期般展開。</p>
</div><p>According to João, gold’s recent surge reflected an influx of late buyers, which helped drive momentum higher. Historically, this phase tends to revive “optimism and complacency” before transitioning into sideways price action, territory gold may now be entering.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 João 的説法，黃金最近的上漲反映了後期買家的湧入，推動了動能的上升。從歷史上看，這一階段往往會恢復 “樂觀和自滿”，然後轉入橫盤價格走勢，黃金現在可能正進入這一領域。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“As liquidity gradually exits gold, the probability increases that capital rotates into risk assets.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“隨着流動性逐漸退出黃金，資金轉向風險資產的概率增加。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>For many investors, major cryptocurrencies remain the primary risk assets of choice, with Bitcoin firmly at the center of liquidity and market attention.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於許多投資者來説，主要的加密貨幣仍然是首選的風險資產，比特幣則牢牢處於流動性和市場關注的中心。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/IMG_0501.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/IMG_0501.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>João’s view is echoed by Henrik Zeberg, head macroeconomist at Swissblock, who believes the BTC–gold ratio may be forming a long-term bottom.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>João 的觀點得到了瑞士區塊鏈公司 Swissblock 首席宏觀經濟學家 Henrik Zeberg 的呼應，他認為 BTC-黃金比率可能正在形成長期底部。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“Large bottom in for BTC-GOLD ratio imo. Let the rotation begin.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“BTC-黃金比率的底部已經形成。讓輪換開始。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>While there is no definitive timeline for how long this transition may take, the broader implication points toward renewed capital inflows into Bitcoin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然沒有明確的時間表來説明這一過渡可能需要多長時間，但更廣泛的含義指向比特幣資本流入的恢復。</p>
</div><p>João reinforced this outlook, stating:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>João 強化了這一展望，表示：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“Historically, this phase unfolds over several months and appears closely aligned with the historical fractal Bitcoin has followed across cycles—the window where large institutional capital reallocates aggressively into Bitcoin.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“從歷史上看，這一階段通常會持續數月，並且與比特幣在週期中遵循的歷史分形密切相關——大型機構資本在此窗口期內會積極重新配置到比特幣。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><h2><strong>Bullish conditions begin to align for Bitcoin</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>看漲條件開始為比特幣對齊</strong></h2>
</div><p>Bull-market sentiment is gradually building, according to André Dragosch, European head of research at Bitwise, who believes the ongoing strength in precious metals could ultimately support a renewed Bitcoin rally.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 Bitwise 歐洲研究負責人 André Dragosch 的説法，看漲市場情緒正在逐漸形成，他認為貴金屬的持續強勁最終可能支持比特幣的再次上漲。</p>
</div><p>Dragosch links this outlook to reflation, a phase marked by policies aimed at stimulating economic activity. He argues that the absence of such macro tailwinds has delayed risk appetite, but not eliminated Bitcoin’s long-term appeal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Dragosch 將這一展望與再通脹聯繫在一起，這一階段的特點是旨在刺激經濟活動的政策。他認為，缺乏這種宏觀順風因素延遲了風險偏好，但並未消除比特幣的長期吸引力。</p>
</div><p>Despite the challenging macro backdrop, he points out that Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs) and corporate treasury holdings have increased exposure by roughly 4.2 times, underscoring growing institutional conviction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管宏觀背景具有挑戰性，他指出，比特幣交易所交易產品（ETP）和企業財政持有的比特幣的敞口增加了約 4.2 倍，突顯出機構信心的增強。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/IMG_0499.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/IMG_0499.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Source: Bitwise</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：Bitwise</p>
</div><p>He adds that several catalysts could drive the next leg higher, including trends in the ISM Manufacturing Index, the appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair, increased capital deployment by major U.S. wirehouses into Bitcoin ETFs, and more companies adopting Bitcoin treasury strategies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他補充説，幾個催化劑可能推動下一輪上漲，包括 ISM 製造業指數的趨勢、新任美聯儲主席的任命、主要美國證券公司對比特幣 ETF 的資本部署增加，以及更多公司採用比特幣財政策略。</p>
</div><p>Commenting on relative valuation, Dragosch noted:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在談到相對估值時，Dragosch 指出：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“BTC-Gold is heavily under-priced and over-sold any way you look at it,” adding that “this relative performance between BTC/Gold tends to move with global risk appetite.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“無論從哪個角度看，BTC-黃金比率都被嚴重低估和超賣。” 並補充説，“BTC/黃金之間的相對錶現往往與全球風險偏好相伴隨。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>He emphasized that Bitcoin historically performs best in risk-on environments and struggles when investors retreat into defensive positioning.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他強調，比特幣在風險偏好環境中表現最佳，而在投資者退回到防禦性佈局時則表現不佳。</p>
</div><p>Dragosch also highlighted a recurring market pattern: gold typically moves first, leading Bitcoin by four to seven months, after which Bitcoin tends to outperform on a percentage basis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Dragosch 還強調了一個反覆出現的市場模式：黃金通常首先上漲，領先比特幣四到七個月，之後比特幣往往在百分比上表現更佳。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Short-term weakness tests key technical levels</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>短期疲軟測試關鍵技術水平</strong></h2>
</div><p>Bitcoin has slipped below its two-year simple moving average (SMA), a level that previously acted as a critical support zone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特幣已跌破其兩年簡單移動平均線（SMA），這一水平之前曾作為關鍵支撐區。</p>
</div><p>Holding below this threshold could expose the asset to further downside pressure if bearish momentum persists.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果持續低於這一閾值，可能會使該資產面臨進一步的下行壓力，尤其是在看跌動能持續的情況下。</p>
</div><p>However, history suggests this phase has often laid the foundation for major rallies. In previous cycles, dips below the two-year SMA coincided with prolonged accumulation by long-term investors ahead of broader bull markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，歷史表明，這一階段通常為重大反彈奠定基礎。在之前的週期中，跌破兩年 SMA 的情況與長期投資者的持續積累相吻合，隨後迎來了更廣泛的牛市。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/IMG_0500.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/IMG_0500.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Source: Alphractal</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：Alphractal</p>
</div><p>This aligns with the prevailing narrative of a gradual capital rotation from gold into Bitcoin, one that could see large institutions and their clients quietly build positions before a renewed rally emerges, once again without a precise timeline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這與黃金向比特幣的逐步資本輪換的主流敍事相符，這可能會看到大型機構及其客户在新一輪反彈出現之前悄然建立頭寸，再次沒有明確的時間表。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2>Final Thoughts</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最後思考</h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>Bitcoin stands to benefit if capital continues to rotate out of gold and into risk assets, though there is still no clear timeline for when this shift could meaningfully accelerate.</em></li>
<li><em>A combination of economic relief and a broader risk-on environment may ultimately provide the catalyst needed for a sustained upside move.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>如果資本繼續從黃金轉向風險資產，比特幣將受益，儘管目前尚無明確的時間表來説明這一轉變何時可能顯著加速。</em></li>
<li><em>經濟緩解和更廣泛的風險偏好環境的結合，最終可能為持續上漲提供所需的催化劑。</em></li>
</ul>
</div>

Analyst warns of gold’s ‘buy climax’ as capital shifts toward Bitcoin

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SPDR 金 ETF

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實物黃金股 ETF - ETFS

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2 倍做多黃金 ETF - ProShares

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嘉實比特幣

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分析師警告稱，隨着資本轉向比特幣，黃金可能正處於 ‘買入高潮’ 階段