<p>TradingKey - 在連續幾天上漲後，黃金和白銀在 1 月 30 日星期五經歷了最劇烈的單日下跌：黃金錄得近 40 年來最大單日跌幅，最高下跌超過 12%，跌破 4900 美元；白銀則創下歷史上最大單日跌幅，一度暴跌超過 36%，跌破 85 美元水平。</p>
<p>在這次崩盤之前，黃金和白銀的價格自 2026 年以來一直在飆升。黃金最高達到 5595 美元，距離 5600 美元的里程碑僅一步之遙，年初至今的最大漲幅接近 30%；白銀則達到 121 美元，最高漲幅達到 70%。</p>
<p>分析師認為，貴金屬的拋售是由於美聯儲主席提名引發的。東部時間星期五早上，唐納德·特朗普正式提名凱文·沃什擔任美聯儲主席，消息在正式宣佈之前就已泄露。此提名被視為對美聯儲抗通脹立場的強化。</p>
<p>然而，OCBC 的策略師克里斯托弗·黃表示，儘管沃什的提名是一個觸發因素，但由於市場一直在尋找結束之前拋物線式上漲的理由，因此修正是不可避免的。</p>
<p>這次下跌僅僅是短期調整，還是貴金屬牛市重大修正的開始？</p>
<h2>沃什的美聯儲提名助推美元，削弱貴金屬吸引力</h2>
<p>儘管沃什已轉向特朗普，期待他的第二個總統任期，批評美聯儲降息過慢並捍衞關税政策，但悉尼 ITC 市場的高級市場分析師肖恩·卡洛表示，市場很難忘記他長期以來的鷹派歷史。</p>
<p>沃什在擔任美聯儲理事期間的預測記錄偏向鷹派，對通脹幾乎零容忍；德意志銀行認為他可能會採用獨特的政策組合，同時降息和縮減資產負債表，以支持美元並對抗通脹。</p>
<p>他在政治言辭與經濟觀點之間的緊張關係指向一個悖論：一位美聯儲候選人在提名前可以公開支持特朗普，但在擔任主席後卻可以忽視他的壓力並主張獨立。現任美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾就是一個先例；當特朗普在他的第一任期提名鮑威爾時，他期望鮑威爾成為低利率的順從倡導者。</p>
<p>彭博策略師布倫丹·法根指出，沃什的提名對面臨上升風險溢價的美國市場是一個積極信號；簡而言之，它降低了各類資產的風險溢價。</p>
<p>他表示，儘管提名不會立即改變美聯儲的貨幣政策，但它將緩解市場對中央銀行獨立性的擔憂，因為市場對美聯儲可能屈服於政治壓力或放棄抗通脹鬥爭的預期將顯著降低，從而恢復信心並支持美元反彈。</p>
<p>根據他的政策觀點，降息旨在避免衰退，通常會削弱美元；然而，他主張同時縮減資產負債表將抽走美元流動性，使貨幣更加稀缺，為美元升值提供催化劑。</p>
<p>圍繞沃什的市場預期不僅增強了美元，還減少了經濟政策的不確定性，創造了一個對以美元計價的商品（如黃金和白銀）不利的環境，這些商品通常在不確定性中上漲。</p>
<h2>貴金屬的回撤是否不可避免？</h2>
<p>正如 OCBC 策略師克里斯托弗·黃所説，黃金和白銀的修正是不可避免的。自 2026 年以來，黃金上漲了約 30%，而白銀則飆升了 70%。最近，隨着黃金和白銀價格屢創新高，相對強弱指數（RSI）顯示它們已被超買。黃金的 RSI 最近觸及 90，而白銀的 RSI 甚至達到了 93.86，為 1980 年以來的最高水平。標準 Chartered 銀行歐洲、非洲和中東地區首席投資官曼普里特·吉爾還指出，黃金與白銀的比率最近接近約 31 的極低水平，這是自 2011 年以來的最低水平，歷史上通常預示着整合期的開始。</p>
<p>此外，Yardeni Research 的總裁埃德·亞爾登指出，在黃金從 3000 美元飆升至 5500 美元的過程中，幾乎沒有經歷過顯著的修正。這並不是牛市的典型節奏，而更像是一個 “融化上漲”。融化上漲是指在非常短的時間內的拋物線式上漲，更多地由市場情緒和投機驅動。融化上漲也常常預示着峯值的臨近。亞爾登表示，黃金回調至 5000 美元並隨後在該水平附近整合構成了正常的市場模式。</p>
<p>然而，貴金屬經銷商 Silver Bullion 的創始人格雷戈爾·格雷戈森對最近的下跌表示質疑，指出星期五的交易時段在短時間內出現了大幅下跌，沒有明顯的公共催化劑。他表示，這可能不僅僅是簡單的獲利了結，可能涉及市場操縱。他解釋説，如果機構打算鎖定利潤，通常會逐步減少其頭寸。</p>
<h2>週期性高峰還是長期牛市？</h2>
<p>分析師普遍認為牛市遠未結束。即使在黃金價格顯著波動的情況下，瑞銀（UBS）已大幅上調其 2026 年黃金價格目標：3 月、6 月和 9 月的目標被提高至 6200 美元，比之前 5000 美元的目標增加了 24%。</p>
<p>這主要是因為支撐此次上漲的結構性驅動因素依然強勁：地緣政治風險、財政不確定性和貨幣貶值擔憂並未消失。儘管沃什已被提名，但許多問題仍遠未解決。瑞銀甚至大膽預測黃金的極端牛市情景：如果地緣政治緊張局勢急劇升級，價格可能高達 7200 美元。</p>
<p>然而，一些分析表明，推動黃金價格上漲的核心因素並不複雜；投資者受到市場趨勢的刺激，陷入了 “追逐反彈” 的情緒。</p>
<p>IG Group 的首席市場分析師 Chris Beauchamp 表示，黃金最近的驚人反彈必然會激發市場投資興趣，但市場對其保值能力的估計實際上是被高估的，尤其是在短期內。通常，黃金作為避險資產；然而，當其月度漲幅接近 30% 時，它實際上變成了一種風險資產，因此不再作為保值工具。</p>
<p>此外，儘管由於政策方向和地緣政治因素，市場正在減少對美元資產的持有，轉而青睞黃金等傳統避險資產，但分析師普遍認為，美元在短期內不會失去全球儲備貨幣的地位。</p>
<p>晨星的高級基金分析師 Kenneth Lamont 也同意這一觀點：黃金並不是理想的保值工具，其價格高度不可預測，這也意味着法定貨幣的消亡遠未迫在眉睫。</p>
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<p>黃金和白銀在 1 月 30 日經歷了顯著的下跌，黃金下跌超過 12%，白銀暴跌超過 36%。此次拋售是由於凱文·沃什被提名為美聯儲主席，進一步強化了反通脹的立場。分析師認為，由於市場處於超買狀態，這一修正是不可避免的。雖然一些人將此次下跌視為貴金屬可能出現的重大修正，但另一些人對快速下滑表示質疑，認為可能存在市場操縱的情況。這一局勢為以美元計價的商品創造了看跌的環境，影響了它們的吸引力</p>

<p>TradingKey - After several consecutive days of gains, gold and silver experienced their sharpest single-day declines on Friday, January 30: Gold recorded its largest one-day drop in nearly 40 years, plunging over 12% at its peak and falling below $4,900; silver hit its largest-ever intraday decline, plummeting more than 36% at one point and breaking below the $85 level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TradingKey - 在連續幾天上漲後，黃金和白銀在 1 月 30 日星期五經歷了最劇烈的單日下跌：黃金錄得近 40 年來最大單日跌幅，最高下跌超過 12%，跌破 4900 美元；白銀則創下歷史上最大單日跌幅，一度暴跌超過 36%，跌破 85 美元水平。</p>
</div><p>Prior to this crash, gold and silver prices had been on a tear since 2026. Gold peaked at $5,595, just shy of the $5,600 milestone, with a maximum year-to-date gain of nearly 30%; silver reached a high of $121, with its peak gain hitting 70%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這次崩盤之前，黃金和白銀的價格自 2026 年以來一直在飆升。黃金最高達到 5595 美元，距離 5600 美元的里程碑僅一步之遙，年初至今的最大漲幅接近 30%；白銀則達到 121 美元，最高漲幅達到 70%。</p>
</div><p>Analysts believe the sell-off in precious metals was triggered by the nomination for Federal Reserve Chair. On Friday morning ET, Donald Trump officially nominated Kevin Warsh to lead the Fed, with news leaking even before the formal announcement. The nomination is viewed as a reinforcement of the Fed's anti-inflation stance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析師認為，貴金屬的拋售是由於美聯儲主席提名引發的。東部時間星期五早上，唐納德·特朗普正式提名凱文·沃什擔任美聯儲主席，消息在正式宣佈之前就已泄露。此提名被視為對美聯儲抗通脹立場的強化。</p>
</div><p>However, OCBC strategist Christopher Wong stated that while news of Warsh's nomination was a trigger, a correction was already inevitable as the market had been searching for a reason to end the previous parabolic rally.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，OCBC 的策略師克里斯托弗·黃表示，儘管沃什的提名是一個觸發因素，但由於市場一直在尋找結束之前拋物線式上漲的理由，因此修正是不可避免的。</p>
</div><p>Is this downturn merely a short-term adjustment, or does it mark the beginning of a major correction for the precious metals bull market?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這次下跌僅僅是短期調整，還是貴金屬牛市重大修正的開始？</p>
</div><h2>Warsh’s Fed Nod Supercharges Greenback, Dents Bullion Appeal</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>沃什的美聯儲提名助推美元，削弱貴金屬吸引力</h2>
</div><p>Although Warsh has pivoted to Trump in anticipation of his second presidential term, aligning with his positions by criticizing the Fed for being too slow to cut rates and defending tariff policies, Sean Callow, a senior market analyst at ITC Markets in Sydney, says the market finds it difficult to forget his long-standing hawkish history.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管沃什已轉向特朗普，期待他的第二個總統任期，批評美聯儲降息過慢並捍衞關税政策，但悉尼 ITC 市場的高級市場分析師肖恩·卡洛表示，市場很難忘記他長期以來的鷹派歷史。</p>
</div><p>Warsh’s forecasting record during his time as a Fed Governor skewed hawkish with a near-zero tolerance for inflation; Deutsche Bank believes he is likely to employ a unique policy mix of simultaneous rate cuts and balance sheet reduction to support the dollar while countering inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃什在擔任美聯儲理事期間的預測記錄偏向鷹派，對通脹幾乎零容忍；德意志銀行認為他可能會採用獨特的政策組合，同時降息和縮減資產負債表，以支持美元並對抗通脹。</p>
</div><p>The tension between his political rhetoric and economic views points to a paradox: a Fed candidate can vocally support Trump prior to a nomination, yet ignore his pressure and assert independence once in the chairman’s seat. Current Fed Chair Jerome Powell serves as a precedent; when Trump nominated him in his first term, he expected Powell to be a compliant advocate for low interest rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他在政治言辭與經濟觀點之間的緊張關係指向一個悖論：一位美聯儲候選人在提名前可以公開支持特朗普，但在擔任主席後卻可以忽視他的壓力並主張獨立。現任美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾就是一個先例；當特朗普在他的第一任期提名鮑威爾時，他期望鮑威爾成為低利率的順從倡導者。</p>
</div><p>Bloomberg strategist Brendan Fagan noted that Warsh’s nomination is a positive signal for U.S. markets facing rising risk premiums; in short, it reduces the risk premium across various asset classes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>彭博策略師布倫丹·法根指出，沃什的提名對面臨上升風險溢價的美國市場是一個積極信號；簡而言之，它降低了各類資產的風險溢價。</p>
</div><p>He stated that while the nomination would not immediately alter the Fed’s monetary policy, it would soothe market concerns regarding central bank independence, as expectations that the Fed might bow to political pressure or abandon its inflation fight would diminish significantly, restoring confidence and supporting a dollar rally.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他表示，儘管提名不會立即改變美聯儲的貨幣政策，但它將緩解市場對中央銀行獨立性的擔憂，因為市場對美聯儲可能屈服於政治壓力或放棄抗通脹鬥爭的預期將顯著降低，從而恢復信心並支持美元反彈。</p>
</div><p>Based on his policy views, rate cuts are intended to stave off recession and would typically weaken the dollar; however, his advocacy for simultaneous balance sheet reduction would drain dollar liquidity, making the currency scarcer and providing a catalyst for the greenback’s appreciation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據他的政策觀點，降息旨在避免衰退，通常會削弱美元；然而，他主張同時縮減資產負債表將抽走美元流動性，使貨幣更加稀缺，為美元升值提供催化劑。</p>
</div><p>Market expectations surrounding Warsh have not only bolstered the dollar but also reduced economic policy uncertainty, creating a bearish environment for dollar-denominated commodities like gold and silver that typically rally on uncertainty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圍繞沃什的市場預期不僅增強了美元，還減少了經濟政策的不確定性，創造了一個對以美元計價的商品（如黃金和白銀）不利的環境，這些商品通常在不確定性中上漲。</p>
</div><h2>Was a Precious Metals Retrenchment Inevitable?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>貴金屬的回撤是否不可避免？</h2>
</div><p>As OCBC strategist Christopher Wong stated, a correction in gold and silver was inevitable. Since 2026, gold has gained as much as approximately 30%, while silver has surged by 70%. Recently, as gold and silver prices repeatedly hit new highs, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicated they were overbought. Gold's RSI recently touched 90, and silver's RSI even reached 93.86, its highest level since 1980. Manpreet Gill, Chief Investment Officer for Europe, Africa, and the Middle East at Standard Chartered Bank, also noted that the gold-to-silver ratio recently approached an extreme low of around 31, a level last seen in 2011, which historically signals the onset of a consolidation period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如 OCBC 策略師克里斯托弗·黃所説，黃金和白銀的修正是不可避免的。自 2026 年以來，黃金上漲了約 30%，而白銀則飆升了 70%。最近，隨着黃金和白銀價格屢創新高，相對強弱指數（RSI）顯示它們已被超買。黃金的 RSI 最近觸及 90，而白銀的 RSI 甚至達到了 93.86，為 1980 年以來的最高水平。標準 Chartered 銀行歐洲、非洲和中東地區首席投資官曼普里特·吉爾還指出，黃金與白銀的比率最近接近約 31 的極低水平，這是自 2011 年以來的最低水平，歷史上通常預示着整合期的開始。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, pointed out that during gold's previous surge from $3,000 to $5,500, it experienced almost no significant correction. This is not the typical pace of a bull market but rather resembles a &#34;melt-up.&#34; A melt-up refers to a parabolic rise over a very short period, driven more by market sentiment and speculation. Melt-ups also frequently signal that a peak is approaching. Yardeni stated that gold's correction back to $5,000 and subsequent consolidation around that level constitutes a normal market pattern.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，Yardeni Research 的總裁埃德·亞爾登指出，在黃金從 3000 美元飆升至 5500 美元的過程中，幾乎沒有經歷過顯著的修正。這並不是牛市的典型節奏，而更像是一個 “融化上漲”。融化上漲是指在非常短的時間內的拋物線式上漲，更多地由市場情緒和投機驅動。融化上漲也常常預示着峯值的臨近。亞爾登表示，黃金回調至 5000 美元並隨後在該水平附近整合構成了正常的市場模式。</p>
</div><p>However, Gregor Gregersen, founder of precious metals dealer Silver Bullion, questioned the recent downturn, noting that Friday's session saw a massive plunge in a very short time without any obvious public catalysts. He suggested this might not be simple profit-taking and could potentially involve market manipulation. He explained that if institutions intended to lock in profits, they would typically reduce their positions gradually.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，貴金屬經銷商 Silver Bullion 的創始人格雷戈爾·格雷戈森對最近的下跌表示質疑，指出星期五的交易時段在短時間內出現了大幅下跌，沒有明顯的公共催化劑。他表示，這可能不僅僅是簡單的獲利了結，可能涉及市場操縱。他解釋説，如果機構打算鎖定利潤，通常會逐步減少其頭寸。</p>
</div><h2>Cyclical Peak or Secular Bull?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>週期性高峰還是長期牛市？</h2>
</div><p>Analysts generally believe the bull market is far from over. Even amid significant volatility in gold prices, UBS (UBS) has significantly raised its 2026 gold price targets: the targets for March, June, and September were hiked to $6,200, a 24% increase from the previous target of $5,000 per ounce.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析師普遍認為牛市遠未結束。即使在黃金價格顯著波動的情況下，瑞銀（UBS）已大幅上調其 2026 年黃金價格目標：3 月、6 月和 9 月的目標被提高至 6200 美元，比之前 5000 美元的目標增加了 24%。</p>
</div><p>This is primarily because the structural drivers behind this rally remain robust: geopolitical risks, fiscal uncertainty, and currency devaluation concerns have not disappeared. Even though Warsh has been nominated, many matters remain far from settled. UBS even boldly predicted an extreme bull-case scenario for gold: if geopolitical tensions escalate sharply, prices could reach as high as $7,200.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這主要是因為支撐此次上漲的結構性驅動因素依然強勁：地緣政治風險、財政不確定性和貨幣貶值擔憂並未消失。儘管沃什已被提名，但許多問題仍遠未解決。瑞銀甚至大膽預測黃金的極端牛市情景：如果地緣政治緊張局勢急劇升級，價格可能高達 7200 美元。</p>
</div><p>However, some analyses suggest a different perspective: the core factors driving gold prices higher are not that complex; it is simply that investors, spurred by market trends, have fallen into a 'chase the rally' sentiment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，一些分析表明，推動黃金價格上漲的核心因素並不複雜；投資者受到市場趨勢的刺激，陷入了 “追逐反彈” 的情緒。</p>
</div><p>Chris Beauchamp, Chief Market Analyst at IG Group, stated that gold's recent stunning rally will inevitably ignite market investment interest, but its store-of-value capability is actually overestimated by the market, especially in the short term. Normally, gold acts as a safe-haven asset; however, when its monthly gain approaches 30%, it effectively becomes a risk asset and thus no longer functions as a store of value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>IG Group 的首席市場分析師 Chris Beauchamp 表示，黃金最近的驚人反彈必然會激發市場投資興趣，但市場對其保值能力的估計實際上是被高估的，尤其是在短期內。通常，黃金作為避險資產；然而，當其月度漲幅接近 30% 時，它實際上變成了一種風險資產，因此不再作為保值工具。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, although the market is reducing holdings of US dollar assets in favor of traditional safe havens like gold due to policy directions and geopolitical factors, analysts generally believe the dollar will not lose its status as the global reserve currency in the short term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，儘管由於政策方向和地緣政治因素，市場正在減少對美元資產的持有，轉而青睞黃金等傳統避險資產，但分析師普遍認為，美元在短期內不會失去全球儲備貨幣的地位。</p>
</div><p>Kenneth Lamont, Senior Fund Analyst at Morningstar, also concurs with this view: gold is not an ideal store of value, and its price is highly unpredictable, which also means the demise of fiat currency is far from imminent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>晨星的高級基金分析師 Kenneth Lamont 也同意這一觀點：黃金並不是理想的保值工具，其價格高度不可預測，這也意味着法定貨幣的消亡遠未迫在眉睫。</p>
</div><p>Find out more</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>瞭解更多</p>
</div>

Precious Metals Bloodbath: Silver’s Worst Day in History as Gold Plunges Most in 40 Years—Is the Bull Run Over?

- 1 月 30 日，黃金和白銀經歷最大單日跌幅，黃金下跌超過 12%。  
- 拋售原因是美聯儲主席提名引發市場反應，分析指出短期調整可能不可避免。  
- 儘管波動，分析師預計黃金長期牛市未結束，地緣政治風險仍然支撐價格。

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貴金屬市場遭遇重創：白銀經歷歷史上最糟糕的一天，黃金創下 40 年來最大跌幅——牛市是否已經結束？