<p>要點：</p>
<ul>
<li>黃金下跌 12%，跌破 5000 美元，白銀暴跌 36%，此前分別上漲 29% 和 68%，嚴重超買的情況為劇烈反轉奠定了基礎</li>
<li>CME 集團在九天內實施了五次保證金上調，逐步擠壓了槓桿多頭，直到週五在 72 小時內的第二次上調（黃金上漲 33%，白銀上漲 36%）引發了大規模的強制平倉</li>
<li>凱文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）被提名為美聯儲主席是另一個關鍵催化劑，他對量化寬鬆的鷹派立場以及對資產負債表紀律的偏好加速了美元的上漲和貴金屬的拋售</li>
</ul>
<p>上週五，黃金和白銀創下數十年來最糟糕的單日表現，超過 7 萬億美元的貴金屬市場市值被抹去，完美的風暴因素引發了過度槓桿頭寸的大規模平倉。</p>
<p>黃金從每盎司 5390 美元暴跌 9% 至 4895 美元，創下自 1980 年代初以來的最大跌幅。白銀的崩潰更為戲劇性，最多下跌 35%，創下白銀的最大單日跌幅。儘管白銀開盤時為 115 美元，但最終以每盎司 85 美元收盤，跌幅達 26%。</p>
<p>此次崩盤發生在黃金年初至今上漲 29% 和白銀上漲 68% 之後，導致兩種金屬嚴重超買，投機性頭寸高企，市場情緒過於樂觀。</p>
<p>白銀（頂部）和黃金（底部）日價格圖（來源：TradingView）</p>
<p>當 CME 集團宣佈在三天內的第二次保證金上調時，緊接着特朗普總統確認將提名鷹派的凱文·沃什擔任美聯儲主席，這一組合觸發了一系列強制拋售。</p>
<p>此次拋售使黃金市場損失約 5 萬億美元，白銀市場損失約 2 萬億美元，鉑金和鈀金也分別遭受了 27% 和 21% 的損失，投機性資金流出席捲了整個金屬市場。</p>
<p>九天內五次保證金上調</p>
<p>週五崩盤的基礎是在前幾周通過 CME 集團一系列激進的保證金要求上調而奠定的，這些上調逐步收緊了槓桿交易者的空間。</p>
<p>1 月 13 日，CME 從固定美元保證金轉向基於百分比的保證金。這意味着抵押品要求隨着合約價值的變化而變化，實際上限制了槓桿，隨着價格的上漲而上限。交易者在九天內面臨五次保證金上調，每次都迫使槓桿多頭要麼追加資本，要麼平倉。</p>
<p>週五，CME 在短短 72 小時內宣佈了第二次上調，新的要求將於 2 月 2 日星期一生效：</p>
<ul>
<li>黃金期貨保證金從 6% 上調至 8%</li>
<li>白銀期貨保證金從 11% 上調至 15%</li>
</ul>
<p>不斷上升的要求造成了交易者所稱的 “盤繞的彈簧” 式的拋售壓力。隨着金屬價格急劇上漲，槓桿越來越受限，市場在出現任何麻煩的第一時間就準備好進行劇烈反轉。</p>
<p>沃什的提名</p>
<p>引發拋售的催化劑是特朗普確認他打算提名凱文·沃什為下一任美聯儲主席。市場認為沃什相比其他候選人更具鷹派立場，提升了對更緊貨幣政策的預期，這將支持美元並對商品價格施加壓力。</p>
<p>週五早上，沃什成為美聯儲主席的概率約為 31.5%，但在澳大利亞東部時間下午 1:30 飆升至 95.5%，這與商品開始回落的時間大致一致。</p>
<p>到澳大利亞東部時間晚上 11:00，這一概率已超過 99%。</p>
<p>下一任美聯儲主席候選人（來源：Polymarket）</p>
<p>沃什對市場的重要性</p>
<p>沃什的政策記錄使他與市場習慣的寬鬆立場有所不同，儘管他對貨幣政策的實際影響仍然不確定。</p>
<p>這位 54 歲的前美聯儲理事在 2006 年至 2011 年期間任職，在 2008 年金融危機期間建立了作為有效危機應對者的聲譽。自離開美聯儲以來，他成為對後危機貨幣政策最直言不諱的批評者之一。</p>
<p>市場的主要擔憂不僅在於利率是否會下降，而在於降息是否會伴隨以往寬鬆週期中所特徵的資產負債表擴張。沃什是一位供給方樂觀主義者，他認為放松管制和減税可以刺激生產力，可能為降低利率提供理由。然而，他始終主張縮小美聯儲的資產負債表。</p>
<p>這給依賴寬鬆貨幣政策來支持資產價格的投資者帶來了不確定性。市場現在正在定價利率可能會下降，但沒有伴隨以往推動風險資產上漲的流動性注入。</p>
<p>技術因素</p>
<p>雖然保證金上調奠定了基礎，沃什的提名提供了觸發因素，但貴金屬在其拋物線式的上漲後已準備好進行極端波動。</p>
<p>技術指標在幾周內發出警告信號，黃金的相對強弱指數（RSI）達到 90，這是數十年來的最高水平。RSI 讀數超過 70 通常表明資產超買，預計將回調。</p>
<p>下跌的速度因伽馬擠壓而加速，期權交易商被迫出售期貨合約以對沖其頭寸，因為價格跌破關鍵行權水平。大型期權頭寸集中在 5300 美元、5200 美元和 5100 美元的 Comex 黃金期貨上。隨着價格暴跌和保證金追繳，過度槓桿的多頭被迫平倉，形成了自我強化的拋售壓力下行螺旋。</p>
<p>中國流動性</p>
<p>雖然西方市場關注美聯儲主席的任命，但在亞洲交易中出現的定價失調也在白銀崩潰中發揮了重要作用。</p>
<p>瑞銀 SDIC 白銀期貨基金是中國投資者獲取白銀敞口的主要來源，其交易價格比上海期貨交易所合約高出 36%-64%。1 月 30 日，深圳證券交易所對 SDIC 白銀 ETF 實施了緊急全天停牌。</p>
<p>這一暫停為中國的機構和散户交易者創造了流動性陷阱。由於無法清算其國內持倉，這些參與者被迫拋售 SPDR 白銀信託 ETF 和 Comex 期貨以籌集現金或對沖風險，給全球市場帶來了顯著的賣壓。</p>
<p>反彈仍然保持完整</p>
<p>儘管週五出現歷史性下跌，但貴金屬在本月和今年仍然大幅上漲。黃金在一月份仍錄得 13% 的漲幅，而白銀本月上漲了 19%，標誌着連續九個月的上漲。</p>
<p>更廣泛反彈的韌性反映了投資者需求的持續，這種需求受到對貨幣貶值、聯邦儲備獨立性、貿易緊張局勢和地緣政治不確定性的擔憂驅動。</p>
<p>結論</p>
<p>週五的拋售清楚地提醒了我們拋物線走勢中固有的風險。波動性可能仍然保持在高位，貴金屬的價格仍遠高於 12 個月前的水平，技術指標顯示估值已被拉伸。展望未來，看到價格在兩個方向上劇烈波動並不令人驚訝。</p>

白銀礦業股 ETF - GlobalX

阿尼科伊格爾礦業

金礦小盤股 ETF - VanEck Vectors

<p>黃金和白銀經歷了歷史性的崩盤，黃金下跌 12%，跌破 5000 美元，白銀暴跌 36%，使貴金屬市場損失了 7 萬億美元。這一下降是由於 CME 集團的激進保證金提高和凱文·沃什被提名為美聯儲主席，導致市場對更緊縮貨幣政策的預期上升。此次崩盤標誌着幾十年來這兩種金屬單日表現最差，黃金和白銀因過度槓桿和超買狀態遭遇了大規模的強制平倉</p>

<p>Key points:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要點：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Gold fell 12% to below US$5,000 and silver crashed 36% after surging 29% and 68% year to date respectively, with severely overbought conditions setting the stage for violent reversal</li>
<li>CME Group implemented five margin hikes within nine days, progressively squeezing leveraged longs before Friday's second increase in 72 hours (33% for gold, 36% for silver) triggered mass forced liquidation</li>
<li>Kevin Warsh's Fed Chair nomination was another key catalyst, with his hawkish stance on quantitative easing and preference for balance sheet discipline over open-ended liquidity accelerating the dollar rally and precious metals selloff</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>黃金下跌 12%，跌破 5000 美元，白銀暴跌 36%，此前分別上漲 29% 和 68%，嚴重超買的情況為劇烈反轉奠定了基礎</li>
<li>CME 集團在九天內實施了五次保證金上調，逐步擠壓了槓桿多頭，直到週五在 72 小時內的第二次上調（黃金上漲 33%，白銀上漲 36%）引發了大規模的強制平倉</li>
<li>凱文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）被提名為美聯儲主席是另一個關鍵催化劑，他對量化寬鬆的鷹派立場以及對資產負債表紀律的偏好加速了美元的上漲和貴金屬的拋售</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Gold and silver posted their worst single-day performances in decades last Friday, with more than US$7 trillion wiped from precious metals markets as a perfect storm of factors triggered mass liquidation of over-leveraged positions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上週五，黃金和白銀創下數十年來最糟糕的單日表現，超過 7 萬億美元的貴金屬市場市值被抹去，完美的風暴因素引發了過度槓桿頭寸的大規模平倉。</p>
</div><p>Gold plunged 9% from US$5,390 an ounce to US$4,895, marking its steepest decline since the early 1980s. Silver saw an even more dramatic collapse, dropping as much as 35% in what represents the largest intraday decline on record for the white metal. Silver closed the session 26% lower to US$85 an ounce, despite opening the session at US$115.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黃金從每盎司 5390 美元暴跌 9% 至 4895 美元，創下自 1980 年代初以來的最大跌幅。白銀的崩潰更為戲劇性，最多下跌 35%，創下白銀的最大單日跌幅。儘管白銀開盤時為 115 美元，但最終以每盎司 85 美元收盤，跌幅達 26%。</p>
</div><p>The crash came after gold had surged 29% year to date and silver had rocketed 68%, leaving both metals severely overbought with elevated speculative positioning and frothy sentiment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此次崩盤發生在黃金年初至今上漲 29% 和白銀上漲 68% 之後，導致兩種金屬嚴重超買，投機性頭寸高企，市場情緒過於樂觀。</p>
</div><p>Silver (TOP) and gold (bottom) daily price chart (Source: TradingView)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>白銀（頂部）和黃金（底部）日價格圖（來源：TradingView）</p>
</div><p>When CME Group announced its second margin increase in three days, followed by news that President Trump would nominate the hawkish Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair, the combination triggered a chain reaction of forced selling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當 CME 集團宣佈在三天內的第二次保證金上調時，緊接着特朗普總統確認將提名鷹派的凱文·沃什擔任美聯儲主席，這一組合觸發了一系列強制拋售。</p>
</div><p>The selloff wiped ~US$5 trillion from gold markets and ~US$2 trillion from silver, with platinum and palladium also suffering losses of 27% and 21% respectively as speculative outflows swept through the metals complex.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此次拋售使黃金市場損失約 5 萬億美元，白銀市場損失約 2 萬億美元，鉑金和鈀金也分別遭受了 27% 和 21% 的損失，投機性資金流出席捲了整個金屬市場。</p>
</div><p>Five margin hikes in nine days</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>九天內五次保證金上調</p>
</div><p>The foundation for Friday's collapse was laid over the previous three weeks through a series of aggressive margin requirement increases by CME Group that progressively tightened the noose on leveraged traders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週五崩盤的基礎是在前幾周通過 CME 集團一系列激進的保證金要求上調而奠定的，這些上調逐步收緊了槓桿交易者的空間。</p>
</div><p>On 13 January, CME shifted from fixed-dollar margins to percentage-based margins. This meant collateral requirements scaled with contract value, effectively capping leverage as prices climbed higher. Traders then faced five margin hikes within nine days, each forcing leveraged long positions to either post more capital or liquidate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1 月 13 日，CME 從固定美元保證金轉向基於百分比的保證金。這意味着抵押品要求隨着合約價值的變化而變化，實際上限制了槓桿，隨着價格的上漲而上限。交易者在九天內面臨五次保證金上調，每次都迫使槓桿多頭要麼追加資本，要麼平倉。</p>
</div><p>On Friday, CME announced its second increase in just 72 hours, with new requirements taking effect from Monday, 2 February:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週五，CME 在短短 72 小時內宣佈了第二次上調，新的要求將於 2 月 2 日星期一生效：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Gold futures margins to 8% from 6%</li>
<li>Silver futures margins to 15% from 11%</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>黃金期貨保證金從 6% 上調至 8%</li>
<li>白銀期貨保證金從 11% 上調至 15%</li>
</ul>
</div><p>The escalating requirements created what traders describe as a &#34;coiled spring&#34; of selling pressure. With metals prices having surged dramatically and leverage increasingly constrained, the market became primed for a violent reversal at the first sign of trouble.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不斷上升的要求造成了交易者所稱的 “盤繞的彈簧” 式的拋售壓力。隨着金屬價格急劇上漲，槓桿越來越受限，市場在出現任何麻煩的第一時間就準備好進行劇烈反轉。</p>
</div><p>Warsh's nomination</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃什的提名</p>
</div><p>The catalyst that ignited the selling came when Trump confirmed he intends to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. Markets view Warsh as a more hawkish choice compared to other candidates, raising expectations for tighter monetary policy that would support the US dollar and pressure commodity prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>引發拋售的催化劑是特朗普確認他打算提名凱文·沃什為下一任美聯儲主席。市場認為沃什相比其他候選人更具鷹派立場，提升了對更緊貨幣政策的預期，這將支持美元並對商品價格施加壓力。</p>
</div><p>Warsh's probability of becoming Fed Chair was sitting around 31.5% on Friday morning but spiked to 95.5% by 1:30 pm AEST, broadly coinciding with when commodities started to roll over.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週五早上，沃什成為美聯儲主席的概率約為 31.5%，但在澳大利亞東部時間下午 1:30 飆升至 95.5%，這與商品開始回落的時間大致一致。</p>
</div><p>By 11:00 pm AEST, the likelihood had crossed 99%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到澳大利亞東部時間晚上 11:00，這一概率已超過 99%。</p>
</div><p>Next Fed Chair candidates (Source: Polymarket)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下一任美聯儲主席候選人（來源：Polymarket）</p>
</div><p>Why Warsh matters for markets</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃什對市場的重要性</p>
</div><p>Warsh's policy record sets him apart from the accommodative stance markets have grown accustomed to, though his actual impact on monetary policy remains uncertain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃什的政策記錄使他與市場習慣的寬鬆立場有所不同，儘管他對貨幣政策的實際影響仍然不確定。</p>
</div><p>The 54-year-old served on the Federal Reserve Board from 2006 to 2011, developing a reputation as a competent crisis fighter during the 2008 financial crisis. Since leaving the Fed, he has become one of the most vocal critics of post-crisis monetary policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這位 54 歲的前美聯儲理事在 2006 年至 2011 年期間任職，在 2008 年金融危機期間建立了作為有效危機應對者的聲譽。自離開美聯儲以來，他成為對後危機貨幣政策最直言不諱的批評者之一。</p>
</div><p>The key concern for markets is not simply whether rates will fall, but whether cuts will come with the balance sheet expansion that has characterised previous easing cycles. Warsh is a supply-side optimist who believes deregulation and tax cuts can spur productivity, potentially justifying lower rates. However, he has consistently argued for a smaller Fed balance sheet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場的主要擔憂不僅在於利率是否會下降，而在於降息是否會伴隨以往寬鬆週期中所特徵的資產負債表擴張。沃什是一位供給方樂觀主義者，他認為放松管制和減税可以刺激生產力，可能為降低利率提供理由。然而，他始終主張縮小美聯儲的資產負債表。</p>
</div><p>This creates uncertainty for investors who have relied on loose monetary policy to support asset prices. Markets are now pricing in the possibility of interest rate cuts without the accompanying liquidity injections that fuelled previous rallies in risk assets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這給依賴寬鬆貨幣政策來支持資產價格的投資者帶來了不確定性。市場現在正在定價利率可能會下降，但沒有伴隨以往推動風險資產上漲的流動性注入。</p>
</div><p>Technical factors</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>技術因素</p>
</div><p>While the margin hikes set the stage and Warsh's nomination provided the trigger, precious metals had been primed for extreme moves after their parabolic rally.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然保證金上調奠定了基礎，沃什的提名提供了觸發因素，但貴金屬在其拋物線式的上漲後已準備好進行極端波動。</p>
</div><p>Technical indicators had been flashing warning signals for weeks, with gold's relative strength index hitting 90, the highest reading in decades. RSI readings above 70 typically indicate an asset is overbought and due for a pullback.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>技術指標在幾周內發出警告信號，黃金的相對強弱指數（RSI）達到 90，這是數十年來的最高水平。RSI 讀數超過 70 通常表明資產超買，預計將回調。</p>
</div><p>The speed of the decline was accelerated by a gamma squeeze, where options dealers were forced to sell futures contracts to hedge their positions as prices fell through key strike levels. Large options positions were clustered at US$5,300, US$5,200 and US$5,100 for Comex gold futures. As prices tumbled and margin calls hit, over-leveraged longs were forced to liquidate, creating a self-reinforcing downward spiral of selling pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下跌的速度因伽馬擠壓而加速，期權交易商被迫出售期貨合約以對沖其頭寸，因為價格跌破關鍵行權水平。大型期權頭寸集中在 5300 美元、5200 美元和 5100 美元的 Comex 黃金期貨上。隨着價格暴跌和保證金追繳，過度槓桿的多頭被迫平倉，形成了自我強化的拋售壓力下行螺旋。</p>
</div><p>Chinese liquidity</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國流動性</p>
</div><p>While Western markets focused on the Fed Chair appointment, pricing dislocations that emerged in Asian trading also played a significant role in silver's collapse.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然西方市場關注美聯儲主席的任命，但在亞洲交易中出現的定價失調也在白銀崩潰中發揮了重要作用。</p>
</div><p>The UBS SDIC Silver Futures Fund, a main source of silver exposure for Chinese investors, was trading at premiums of 36-64% over Shanghai Futures Exchange contracts. On 30 January, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange implemented an emergency full-day trading halt for the SDIC Silver ETF.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>瑞銀 SDIC 白銀期貨基金是中國投資者獲取白銀敞口的主要來源，其交易價格比上海期貨交易所合約高出 36%-64%。1 月 30 日，深圳證券交易所對 SDIC 白銀 ETF 實施了緊急全天停牌。</p>
</div><p>This suspension created a liquidity trap for Chinese institutional and retail traders. Unable to liquidate their domestic holdings, these participants were forced to dump positions in the SPDR Silver Trust ETF and Comex futures to raise cash or hedge their exposure, adding significant selling pressure to global markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一暫停為中國的機構和散户交易者創造了流動性陷阱。由於無法清算其國內持倉，這些參與者被迫拋售 SPDR 白銀信託 ETF 和 Comex 期貨以籌集現金或對沖風險，給全球市場帶來了顯著的賣壓。</p>
</div><p>Rally remains intact</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>反彈仍然保持完整</p>
</div><p>Despite Friday's historic decline, precious metals remain substantially higher for the month and year. Gold still posted a 13% gain for January, while silver rose 19% for the month, marking nine consecutive months of gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管週五出現歷史性下跌，但貴金屬在本月和今年仍然大幅上漲。黃金在一月份仍錄得 13% 的漲幅，而白銀本月上漲了 19%，標誌着連續九個月的上漲。</p>
</div><p>The resilience of the broader rally reflects sustained investor demand driven by concerns about currency debasement, Fed independence, trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更廣泛反彈的韌性反映了投資者需求的持續，這種需求受到對貨幣貶值、聯邦儲備獨立性、貿易緊張局勢和地緣政治不確定性的擔憂驅動。</p>
</div><p>The bottom line</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>結論</p>
</div><p>Friday's selloff serves as a stark reminder of the risks inherent in parabolic moves. Volatility is likely to remain elevated, with precious metals still substantially above their levels from 12 months ago and technical indicators suggesting stretched valuations. Looking ahead, it wouldn't be surprising to see sharp moves in both directions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週五的拋售清楚地提醒了我們拋物線走勢中固有的風險。波動性可能仍然保持在高位，貴金屬的價格仍遠高於 12 個月前的水平，技術指標顯示估值已被拉伸。展望未來，看到價格在兩個方向上劇烈波動並不令人驚訝。</p>
</div>

Gold and silver suffer historic crash, wiping $7 trillion. Here's what you need to know

Market Index

黃金勘探商 ETF - GlobalX

紐蒙特礦業

貴金屬股 ETF -ETFS

SPDR 金 ETF

實物黃金股 ETF - ETFS

德銀貴金屬基金 - PowerShares

山東黃金

環球銀礦 MSCI ETF - iShares

芝加哥商品交易所

Sprott Silver Mnrs & Physical Silver ETF

全球黃金礦業股 MSCI ETF - iShares

2 倍做多黃金 ETF - ProShares

黃金 ETF - iShares

黃金和貴金屬礦商 ETF - U.S. Global

紫金礦業

華夏中證滬深港黃金產業股票ETF

Kinross Gold

Sprott PHYs Silver

湖南白銀

2 倍做空白銀 ETF - ProShares

白銀信託 ETF - iShares

華夏黃金ETF

Sprott Active Gold & Silver Miners ETF

實物白銀股票 ETF - ETFS

黃金和白銀經歷了歷史性的崩盤，市值蒸發了 7 萬億美元。以下是您需要了解的詳情