<p>[倫敦] 在白銀市場的歷史上，價格在去年之前僅在少數短暫時期內交易超過每盎司 40 美元。上週五（1 月 30 日），疲憊的交易員們震驚地目睹這貴金屬在不到二十小時內暴跌如此之多。</p>
<p>幾周以來，全球金屬交易員們夜以繼日地盯着屏幕，因為從黃金到銅和錫的價格似乎擺脱了供需基本面的重力，受到來自中國投機者的熱錢推動而上漲。</p>
<p>然後，僅僅幾個小時內，這一漲勢逆轉，演變為商品市場上最戲劇性的崩盤之一。週五白銀暴跌 26% 創下歷史最大跌幅，而黃金則在十多年來最糟糕的一天中下跌了 9%。銅價在突破每噸 14,500 美元后迅速回落，交易員們已經感到震驚。</p>
<p>“在我的職業生涯中，這絕對是我見過的最瘋狂的情況，” 赫拉烏斯貴金屬的交易主管 Dominik Sperzel 表示。“黃金是穩定的象徵，但這樣的波動並不是穩定的象徵。”</p>
<p>雖然週五崩盤的導火索是美國總統唐納德·特朗普計劃提名凱文·沃什擔任美聯儲主席的消息，這使得美元上漲，但許多人早已警告金屬市場過度膨脹，應該進行修正，經過幾周的持續上漲後，市場確實需要調整。然而，價格下跌的速度和幅度令人矚目，尤其是對於像黃金這樣的大型流動市場。</p>
<p>歐洲和美國的金屬交易員們一直在加班加點工作，不願錯過亞洲交易日，因為許多劇烈波動發生在那個時段，甚至在長途飛行中也在瘋狂交易。在上週德國舉行的全球最大硬幣會議上，執行官們靜靜地盯着手機，默默觀看危機的展開。</p>
<p>“拋物線式的”、“瘋狂的” 和 “無法交易的”，都是 MKS PAMP 金屬戰略主管 Nicky Shiels 對週五市場的描述。她表示，2026 年 1 月將被記載為 “貴金屬歷史上最動盪的一個月。”</p>
<h2>瘋狂的節奏</h2>
<p>黃金的上漲已經持續了數年，中央銀行將其作為對美元的替代品而擴大持有量，去年隨着西方投資者湧入所謂的貶值交易而加速。</p>
<p>但最近幾周，漲幅變得更加瘋狂，受到中國投機者的購買潮推動，從個人投資者到大型股權基金紛紛進入商品市場，推動金屬價格從銅到白銀創下新高。隨着價格飆升，跟隨趨勢的商品交易顧問紛紛入場，為這一漲勢增添了更多泡沫。</p>
<p>“我們大約在三四周前就已經識別出這變成了一種動量交易，而不是基本面交易，” 對沖基金基礎設施資本顧問公司的首席投資官 Jay Hatfield 表示。“我們只是順勢而為，等待這種情況的發生。”</p>
<p>隨着對美聯儲獨立性的擔憂以及從委內瑞拉到伊朗的地緣政治對抗佔據頭條，金屬的上漲成為一些投資者對美元日益不信任的象徵。隨着金屬的上漲勢頭吸引了越來越多的買家，黃金和白銀的熱潮席捲了從中國到德國的購物者，場面讓人想起 1979 年至 1980 年，現代歷史上唯一一次市場出現如此劇烈的價格波動。</p>
<p>“我們在某些條形尺寸上已經提前幾周售罄，但人們仍然在購買，” 赫拉烏斯的 Sperzel 表示，他説他的公司正在以最大產能運作以滿足需求。“人們在這些商店前排隊幾個小時以購買產品。”</p>
<p>價格波動在白銀市場上最為劇烈，這是一個相對較小的市場，按當前價格計算，年供應量僅為 980 億美元，而黃金的年供應量為 7870 億美元。</p>
<p>上週五，iShares Silver Trust，即以白銀為支持的最大交易所交易基金（ETF），其交易量超過 400 億美元。這使其成為全球交易量最大的證券之一，而幾個月前其交易量很少超過 20 億美元。</p>
<p>期權交易的活動同樣熱烈，近年來在零售交易者中越來越受歡迎。</p>
<p>一些投資者將其視為押注市場上漲的廉價方式，Reddit 小組上的帖子顯示，押注白銀快速上漲可以獲得超過 1000% 的收益。最近幾周，最大的黃金和白銀 ETF 在看漲期權方面都創下了記錄的未平倉合約和交易量，而 SLV 的看漲期權交易量超過了跟蹤納斯達克 100 指數的主要 ETF。</p>
<p>當未平倉的看漲期權數量眾多時，就為擠壓創造了條件，因為交易商在價格開始上漲時急於通過購買基礎資產來對沖他們的頭寸，從而進一步推動價格波動。</p>
<p>“隨着我們被擠壓上漲，他們必須機械性地不斷購買更多，” Bridgewater Associates 前商品主管 Alexander Campbell 表示。“這就解釋了為什麼我們上漲如此之快，跌落也如此之快。”</p>
<p>特朗普在週二晚上表示，承壓的美元 “表現很好” 的評論引發了最後一波金屬購買熱潮，推動價格創下新高。到週四，黃金達到了每盎司 5,595 美元，白銀超過 121 美元，銅價達到了 14,527.50 美元。</p>
<p>反轉的第一個跡象出現在週四晚些時候，當美國市場開盤時，美元轉強，黃金突然暴跌，在短短十分鐘內一度下跌超過 200 美元。</p>
<p>價格短暫穩定，但隨後彭博社和其他新聞機構報道特朗普計劃提名沃什為下一任美聯儲主席。此前，亞洲早盤交易通常會推動價格上漲——而迷迷糊糊的歐洲交易員對此感到驚訝——這一次，中國投資者選擇了獲利了結。週五戲劇性崩盤的種子已經埋下。</p>
<p>“中國拋售，現在我們正在承受後果，” 坎貝爾説道。</p>
<p>接下來可能再次取決於中國。投資者將密切關注週日晚上紐約時間上海開盤時，看看中國對金屬的需求是否能在震盪拋售後恢復。中國交易所對各種銀合約的每日價格波動限制在 16% 到 19% 之間，這意味着上海的價格可能需要追趕。</p>
<p>儘管如此，在中國農曆新年之前的回調，作為一個傳統的購買季節，可能提供了一個入場點，錯過上漲的散户投資者正等待入場。根據交易員的説法，在主要的貴金屬交易中心水貝，銀的緊張局勢有所緩解，週末賣出量超過買入量。但沒有恐慌性拋售的跡象，水貝的銀價仍然高於交易所合約的價格。</p>
<p>隨着散户興趣的降温，幾家中國銀行在週五宣佈採取新措施，以遏制與散户黃金積累產品相關的風險，此前一年內已採取了一系列類似措施。</p>
<p>中國建設銀行表示，將從週一起提高最低存款金額，並敦促投資者增強風險意識，而中國工商銀行則表示將在假期期間對其如意黃金儲蓄服務實施配額控制。交易所也採取了一些措施，可能會抑制全球金屬市場的廣泛上漲。</p>
<p>“黃金相對強勁；我看到過去兩天有很多抄底買家在農曆新年前購買珠寶和金條，” 交易商深圳國興貴金屬的風險負責人劉順敏説道。“而對於銀，強烈傾向於觀望。” 彭博社</p>

<p>中國投機者對近期黃金和白銀價格的暴跌產生了顯著影響，白銀在一天內暴跌 26%，黃金下跌 9%。這一劇烈變化發生在一段由投機驅動的瘋狂交易之後，尤其是來自中國投資者的投機。市場曾因需求增加和對美元的不信任而經歷了一波上漲，但迅速的反轉讓交易者感到震驚。貴金屬市場的波動性被認為是前所未有的，ETF 和期權的交易量創下紀錄，反映出市場的混亂狀況</p>

<p>[LONDON] In the history of the silver market, prices had traded above US$40 an ounce for only a handful of brief periods before last year. On Friday (Jan 30), exhausted traders watched in shock as the precious metal plunged by that much in less than twenty hours.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[倫敦] 在白銀市場的歷史上，價格在去年之前僅在少數短暫時期內交易超過每盎司 40 美元。上週五（1 月 30 日），疲憊的交易員們震驚地目睹這貴金屬在不到二十小時內暴跌如此之多。</p>
</div><p>For weeks, traders across the metals world have spent their nights glued to screens as prices for everything from gold to copper and tin seemed to break free from the gravity of supply and demand fundamentals, spurred higher on a wave of hot money from speculators in China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>幾周以來，全球金屬交易員們夜以繼日地盯着屏幕，因為從黃金到銅和錫的價格似乎擺脱了供需基本面的重力，受到來自中國投機者的熱錢推動而上漲。</p>
</div><p>And then, in just a few hours, the rally reversed into one of the most dramatic crashes ever seen in commodity markets. Silver’s 26 per cent plunge on Friday was the biggest on record, while gold dropped 9 per cent in its worst day in more than a decade. Copper traders were already reeling after a sudden spike past US$14,500 a tonne that unravelled just as fast.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然後，僅僅幾個小時內，這一漲勢逆轉，演變為商品市場上最戲劇性的崩盤之一。週五白銀暴跌 26% 創下歷史最大跌幅，而黃金則在十多年來最糟糕的一天中下跌了 9%。銅價在突破每噸 14,500 美元后迅速回落，交易員們已經感到震驚。</p>
</div><p>“In my career, it’s definitely the wildest that I have seen,” said Dominik Sperzel, the head of trading at Heraeus Precious Metals, a leading bullion refiner. “Gold, it’s a symbol of stability, but such a move is not a symbol of stability.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在我的職業生涯中，這絕對是我見過的最瘋狂的情況，” 赫拉烏斯貴金屬的交易主管 Dominik Sperzel 表示。“黃金是穩定的象徵，但這樣的波動並不是穩定的象徵。”</p>
</div><p>While the trigger for Friday’s crash was the news that US President Donald Trump planned to nominate Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve, which sent the dollar higher, many had been warning that the metals markets were overstretched and due for a correction following weeks of relentless surges. Still, the speed and scale of the drop was breathtaking, particularly for a market as large and liquid as gold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然週五崩盤的導火索是美國總統唐納德·特朗普計劃提名凱文·沃什擔任美聯儲主席的消息，這使得美元上漲，但許多人早已警告金屬市場過度膨脹，應該進行修正，經過幾周的持續上漲後，市場確實需要調整。然而，價格下跌的速度和幅度令人矚目，尤其是對於像黃金這樣的大型流動市場。</p>
</div><p>Metals traders in Europe and the US have been working around the clock, unwilling to miss the Asian trading day when many of the sharpest moves have taken place, and even frantically trading through long-distance flights. At the world’s biggest coin conference taking place in Germany last week, executives stood staring at their phones, watching in silence as the crisis unfolded.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歐洲和美國的金屬交易員們一直在加班加點工作，不願錯過亞洲交易日，因為許多劇烈波動發生在那個時段，甚至在長途飛行中也在瘋狂交易。在上週德國舉行的全球最大硬幣會議上，執行官們靜靜地盯着手機，默默觀看危機的展開。</p>
</div><p>“Parabolic,” “frenzied” and “untradeable”, were all descriptions of the market on Friday, wrote Nicky Shiels, head of metals strategy at MKS PAMP. January 2026, she said, would go down as “the most volatile month in precious metals history.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“拋物線式的”、“瘋狂的” 和 “無法交易的”，都是 MKS PAMP 金屬戰略主管 Nicky Shiels 對週五市場的描述。她表示，2026 年 1 月將被記載為 “貴金屬歷史上最動盪的一個月。”</p>
</div><h2>Frenzied pace</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>瘋狂的節奏</h2>
</div><p>Gold’s rally has been building for a number of years, as central banks expanded their holdings as an alternative to the US dollar, and accelerated last year as western investors piled into the so-called debasement trade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黃金的上漲已經持續了數年，中央銀行將其作為對美元的替代品而擴大持有量，去年隨着西方投資者湧入所謂的貶值交易而加速。</p>
</div><p>But the gains have taken on a more frenzied pace in recent weeks, driven by a wave of buying from Chinese speculators, from individual investors to large equity funds venturing into commodities, that has lifted metals from copper to silver to fresh records. As prices surged, trend-following commodity trading advisors piled in, adding more froth to the rally.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但最近幾周，漲幅變得更加瘋狂，受到中國投機者的購買潮推動，從個人投資者到大型股權基金紛紛進入商品市場，推動金屬價格從銅到白銀創下新高。隨着價格飆升，跟隨趨勢的商品交易顧問紛紛入場，為這一漲勢增添了更多泡沫。</p>
</div><p>“We had identified about three or four weeks ago that it turned into a momentum trade, not a fundamental trade,” said Jay Hatfield, chief investment officer at hedge fund Infrastructure Capital Advisors. “We were just riding it, waiting for this type of thing to happen.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我們大約在三四周前就已經識別出這變成了一種動量交易，而不是基本面交易，” 對沖基金基礎設施資本顧問公司的首席投資官 Jay Hatfield 表示。“我們只是順勢而為，等待這種情況的發生。”</p>
</div><p>With concerns over the independence of the Fed and geopolitical confrontations from Venezuela to Iran capturing the headlines, the rally in metals became a symbol of some investors’ growing distrust of the US dollar. As metals’ upwards momentum drew more and more buyers, gold and silver fever gripped shoppers from China to Germany, in scenes reminiscent of 1979 to 1980, the only other time in modern history that the markets have seen such dramatic swings in price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着對美聯儲獨立性的擔憂以及從委內瑞拉到伊朗的地緣政治對抗佔據頭條，金屬的上漲成為一些投資者對美元日益不信任的象徵。隨着金屬的上漲勢頭吸引了越來越多的買家，黃金和白銀的熱潮席捲了從中國到德國的購物者，場面讓人想起 1979 年至 1980 年，現代歷史上唯一一次市場出現如此劇烈的價格波動。</p>
</div><p>“We are sold out in certain bar sizes, weeks in advance and people they still buy,” said Sperzel of Heraeus, who said his company is operating at maximum capacity to try to meet the demand. “People are queueing for hours in front of these shops in order to buy products.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我們在某些條形尺寸上已經提前幾周售罄，但人們仍然在購買，” 赫拉烏斯的 Sperzel 表示，他説他的公司正在以最大產能運作以滿足需求。“人們在這些商店前排隊幾個小時以購買產品。”</p>
</div><p>The price moves have been most dramatic in silver, a relatively tiny market with an annual supply worth just US$98 billion at current prices, compared with US$787 billion for gold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>價格波動在白銀市場上最為劇烈，這是一個相對較小的市場，按當前價格計算，年供應量僅為 980 億美元，而黃金的年供應量為 7870 億美元。</p>
</div><p>On Friday, iShares Silver Trust, the largest exchange-traded fund (ETF) backed by silver known by its ticker SLV, recorded more than US$40 billion in turnover. That made it one of the most traded securities on the planet, when just months ago it would rarely see more than US$2 billion traded.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上週五，iShares Silver Trust，即以白銀為支持的最大交易所交易基金（ETF），其交易量超過 400 億美元。這使其成為全球交易量最大的證券之一，而幾個月前其交易量很少超過 20 億美元。</p>
</div><p>Activity in options, which have become increasingly popular with retail traders in recent years, was similarly feverish.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>期權交易的活動同樣熱烈，近年來在零售交易者中越來越受歡迎。</p>
</div><p>Seen by some investors as a cheap way to bet on market rallies, posts on the Reddit groups that had helped power previous retail surges into silver showed the gains of over 1,000 per cent that could be made from betting on silver’s rapid climb. The biggest gold and silver ETFs each saw record open interest and trading volumes on call options in recent weeks, and the volume of call options on SLV exceeded that of the main ETF that tracks the Nasdaq 100 index of tech stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些投資者將其視為押注市場上漲的廉價方式，Reddit 小組上的帖子顯示，押注白銀快速上漲可以獲得超過 1000% 的收益。最近幾周，最大的黃金和白銀 ETF 在看漲期權方面都創下了記錄的未平倉合約和交易量，而 SLV 的看漲期權交易量超過了跟蹤納斯達克 100 指數的主要 ETF。</p>
</div><p>When there are many outstanding calls, it sets the conditions for a squeeze, as dealers rush to hedge their positions by buying the underlying asset when prices start moving up, contributing to further price moves.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當未平倉的看漲期權數量眾多時，就為擠壓創造了條件，因為交易商在價格開始上漲時急於通過購買基礎資產來對沖他們的頭寸，從而進一步推動價格波動。</p>
</div><p>“As we squeeze up, they have to mechanically keep buying more,” said Alexander Campbell, former head of commodities for Bridgewater Associates. “And that would explain why we go up so fast, and down so fast.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“隨着我們被擠壓上漲，他們必須機械性地不斷購買更多，” Bridgewater Associates 前商品主管 Alexander Campbell 表示。“這就解釋了為什麼我們上漲如此之快，跌落也如此之快。”</p>
</div><p>Trump’s comment that the under-pressure US dollar was “doing great” on Tuesday night triggered a final frenzy of metals buying, pushing prices to new records. By Thursday, Gold reached US$5,595 an ounce, silver topped US$121 and copper hit US$14,527.50.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普在週二晚上表示，承壓的美元 “表現很好” 的評論引發了最後一波金屬購買熱潮，推動價格創下新高。到週四，黃金達到了每盎司 5,595 美元，白銀超過 121 美元，銅價達到了 14,527.50 美元。</p>
</div><p>The first sign of a reversal came later Thursday, when the US dollar turned higher as US markets opened and gold suddenly plunged, at one point dropping more than US$200 an ounce in about ten minutes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>反轉的第一個跡象出現在週四晚些時候，當美國市場開盤時，美元轉強，黃金突然暴跌，在短短十分鐘內一度下跌超過 200 美元。</p>
</div><p>Prices briefly stabilised, but then Bloomberg and other news organisations reported that Trump was planning to nominate Warsh as the next Fed chair. Where previously the Asian morning session had reliably driven prices higher – as bleary-eyed European traders watched on in astonishment – this time, Chinese investors took profits. The seeds of Friday’s dramatic crash were sown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>價格短暫穩定，但隨後彭博社和其他新聞機構報道特朗普計劃提名沃什為下一任美聯儲主席。此前，亞洲早盤交易通常會推動價格上漲——而迷迷糊糊的歐洲交易員對此感到驚訝——這一次，中國投資者選擇了獲利了結。週五戲劇性崩盤的種子已經埋下。</p>
</div><p>“China sold and now we’re suffering the consequences,” Campbell said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“中國拋售，現在我們正在承受後果，” 坎貝爾説道。</p>
</div><p>What comes next may once again depend on China. Investors will be watching closely for when trading opens in Shanghai on Sunday evening New York time, to see whether Chinese demand for metals can be revived after the shock selloff. A 16 to 19 per cent daily limit on price moves for various silver contracts on Chinese exchanges means Shanghai’s prices may need to play catch-up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>接下來可能再次取決於中國。投資者將密切關注週日晚上紐約時間上海開盤時，看看中國對金屬的需求是否能在震盪拋售後恢復。中國交易所對各種銀合約的每日價格波動限制在 16% 到 19% 之間，這意味着上海的價格可能需要追趕。</p>
</div><p>Still, the pullback ahead of the Chinese New Year, a traditional buying season, may offer an entry point, with retail investors who had missed the rally waiting to step in. In Shuibei, a major bullion trading hub, tightness in silver has eased somewhat, with more selling than buying over the weekend, according to traders. But there are no signs of panic selling, and Shuibei silver prices are still trading at a premium to exchange contracts, they said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，在中國農曆新年之前的回調，作為一個傳統的購買季節，可能提供了一個入場點，錯過上漲的散户投資者正等待入場。根據交易員的説法，在主要的貴金屬交易中心水貝，銀的緊張局勢有所緩解，週末賣出量超過買入量。但沒有恐慌性拋售的跡象，水貝的銀價仍然高於交易所合約的價格。</p>
</div><p>As retail interest simmers, several Chinese banks on Friday announced fresh measures to curb risks tied to retail gold accumulation products, following a series of similar moves over the past year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着散户興趣的降温，幾家中國銀行在週五宣佈採取新措施，以遏制與散户黃金積累產品相關的風險，此前一年內已採取了一系列類似措施。</p>
</div><p>China Construction Bank said that it will raise the minimum deposit amount from Monday and urged investors to heighten risk awareness, while Industrial and Commercial Bank of China said it will implement quota controls for its Ruyi Gold Savings service during holidays. Exchanges have also taken several steps that could rein in the broad rally in metal markets globally.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國建設銀行表示，將從週一起提高最低存款金額，並敦促投資者增強風險意識，而中國工商銀行則表示將在假期期間對其如意黃金儲蓄服務實施配額控制。交易所也採取了一些措施，可能會抑制全球金屬市場的廣泛上漲。</p>
</div><p>“Gold is relatively strong; I see a lot of dip buyers coming in the past two days to purchase jewellery and bars before the Chinese New Year,” said Liu Shunmin, head of risk at trader Shenzhen Guoxing Precious Metal. “Whereas for silver, there’s a strong inclination to stand on the sidelines.” BLOOMBERG</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“黃金相對強勁；我看到過去兩天有很多抄底買家在農曆新年前購買珠寶和金條，” 交易商深圳國興貴金屬的風險負責人劉順敏説道。“而對於銀，強烈傾向於觀望。” 彭博社</p>
</div>

中國投機者為黃金和白銀的崩盤做好了準備