<p>要點：</p>
<ul>
<li>房地產開發商的股票因政策利好而大幅上漲</li>
<li>但對私營企業的貸款仍然稀缺，開發商表示</li>
<li>持續下降的房屋銷售表明市場尚未穩定</li>
<li>有關幫助該行業的措施的詳細信息，請點擊這裏</li>
</ul>
<p>作者：Clare Jim</p>
<p>中國疲弱的房地產市場最近出現了一些積極的頭條新聞，但私營房地產開發商和分析師都警告稱，該行業仍面臨資金挑戰和長期下滑的價格，需求疲軟。</p>
<p>好的一面是：上個月一份共產黨期刊呼籲採取 “強有力的政策行動” 來幫助該行業，而監管機構上週似乎已經取消了限制開發商債務比率的 “三條紅線” 政策，這些政策引發了 2021 年的房地產債務危機。</p>
<p>根據消息來源，某些受歡迎項目的開發商將獲得五年貸款延期，這是其他鼓舞人心的跡象。中國還計劃擴大其 REIT 市場。</p>
<p>上週五，國有的越秀地產和中國海外大洋公司在香港推出了點心債券發行，進一步表明市場情緒正在改善。</p>
<p>一系列積極的消息幫助提升了該行業的股票，CSI 300 房地產指數今年迄今上漲了 5%。</p>
<p>房地產高管們感到相當沮喪</p>
<p>但在一線的高管們感受卻截然不同。</p>
<p>“我看不出私營開發商將如何生存，” 一家總部位於上海的公司的高級高管表示，該公司是眾多在流動性危機後違約的開發商之一，流動性危機是由 “三條紅線” 政策引發的。</p>
<p>儘管提供了抵押品，並且儘管出台了鼓勵向該行業貸款的政策，他的公司仍未能從銀行獲得新貸款，該高管表示，由於話題的敏感性，他要求不透露姓名。</p>
<p>投資者正關注全國人民代表大會和中國人民政治協商會議在三月份的年度全體會議上可能提供的更多政策支持，以及四月份的政治局會議。</p>
<p>但一位國有開發商的高級高管表示，他並不期待今年會有強有力的刺激或其他措施顯著改變市場。</p>
<p>這主要是因為在過去五年中，傳統措施已經採取——利率已降低，購房限制已大幅放寬，銀行也被鼓勵提供貸款。</p>
<p>據一家部委媒體報道，“三條紅線” 政策的明顯廢除也在某種程度上是象徵性的。開發商和分析師指出，這些規則實際上已經放鬆了一段時間，但銀行的貸款實踐並沒有顯著變化。</p>
<p>房地產前瞻研究公司的首席執行官 Robert Ciemniak 表示，他預計政策制定的範式將保持 “支持而非刺激”。如果地方政府擴大回購土地和未售住房開發項目的計劃，將其轉變為經濟適用房，開發商可能會受益。</p>
<p>房屋銷售下滑的痛苦</p>
<p>該行業的債務危機和隨之而來的未完成公寓過剩對世界第二大經濟體造成了沉重打擊，該經濟體還在應對與美國加劇的貿易緊張關係帶來的後果。</p>
<p>經濟增長緩慢，加上就業和財務不安全感上升，打擊了購房者的信心，房價持續下跌。</p>
<p>瑞銀分析師 John Lam 在給客户的報告中表示，目前還為時尚早，無法説房地產市場已經穩定，強調新房銷售疲軟，並補充説任何真正的復甦都應以家庭收入的增長為基礎。</p>
<p>中國的新房價格在 12 月份同比下降了 2.7%，較上個月的 2.4% 降幅加快，創下五個月以來的最快降幅。</p>
<p>單獨數據顯示，2025 年中國房地產投資暴跌 17.2%，而按建築面積計算的房屋銷售下降了 8.7%。路透社的一項季度調查顯示，預計 2026 年新房價格將再下降 3.7%。</p>
<p>這將繼續給努力履行債務義務的中國房地產開發商帶來痛苦。</p>
<p>這場危機已經導致中國恒大，這家曾經是國內最大的開發商，如今正在清算，而另一家知名企業碧桂園最近完成了其離岸債務的重組。</p>
<p>以在中國最大城市進行重大項目而聞名的萬科企業，最近獲得了債權人的批准，推遲部分還款，避免了潛在的違約。</p>
<p>但信用分析師表示，萬科可能會走上與其他資金緊張的中國開發商類似的道路，並最終尋求債務重組。</p>

易方達滬深300非銀ETF

300地產

遼寧成大

南方中證全指房地產ETF

<p>中國房地產市場在政策變化和債券銷售的推動下顯示出改善的跡象，但開發商仍然保持謹慎。儘管 CSI 300 房地產指數上漲了 5%，許多私營開發商在資金和房屋銷售下降方面仍面臨困難。分析師預測價格將繼續下跌，且缺乏顯著的刺激措施。該行業的債務危機仍在持續，主要開發商如恒大等的違約事件凸顯了這一問題，新房價格同比下降了 2.7%。由於市場面臨經濟挑戰和買家信心疲軟，前景依然不確定</p>

<p>Key points:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要點：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Property developer shares have jumped on encouraging policy signs</li>
<li>But lending to private firms still scarce, developer says</li>
<li>Continued declining home sales point to a market that hasn't stabilised</li>
<li>For a factbox on measures to help the sector, please clickhere</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>房地產開發商的股票因政策利好而大幅上漲</li>
<li>但對私營企業的貸款仍然稀缺，開發商表示</li>
<li>持續下降的房屋銷售表明市場尚未穩定</li>
<li>有關幫助該行業的措施的詳細信息，請點擊這裏</li>
</ul>
</div><p>By Clare Jim</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Clare Jim</p>
</div><p>China's embattled property market has had a recent run of positive headlines, but private real estate developers and analysts alike caution that the sector remains beset by funding challenges and long-declining prices amid soft demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國疲弱的房地產市場最近出現了一些積極的頭條新聞，但私營房地產開發商和分析師都警告稱，該行業仍面臨資金挑戰和長期下滑的價格，需求疲軟。</p>
</div><p>On the plus side: a Communist Party journal last month called for &#34;strong policy actions&#34; to help the industry, and regulators last week appeared to have done away with the &#34;three red lines&#34; policy of caps on developer debt ratios that limited bank lending - rules that sparked the property sector's debt crisis in 2021.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>好的一面是：上個月一份共產黨期刊呼籲採取 “強有力的政策行動” 來幫助該行業，而監管機構上週似乎已經取消了限制開發商債務比率的 “三條紅線” 政策，這些政策引發了 2021 年的房地產債務危機。</p>
</div><p>Among other encouraging signs, developers of certain favoured projects will be granted five-year extensions on loans, sources said last week. China also plans to expand its REIT market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據消息來源，某些受歡迎項目的開發商將獲得五年貸款延期，這是其他鼓舞人心的跡象。中國還計劃擴大其 REIT 市場。</p>
</div><p>And on Friday, state-owned Yuexiu Property  and China Overseas Grand Oceans  launched dim sum bond sales in Hong Kong, another indication of improving sentiment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上週五，國有的越秀地產和中國海外大洋公司在香港推出了點心債券發行，進一步表明市場情緒正在改善。</p>
</div><p>The run of upbeat news has helped lift shares in the sector with the CSI 300 Real Estate Index  climbing 5% for the year to date.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一系列積極的消息幫助提升了該行業的股票，CSI 300 房地產指數今年迄今上漲了 5%。</p>
</div><p>PROPERTY EXECS PROPERLY DESPONDENT</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>房地產高管們感到相當沮喪</p>
</div><p>But executives with boots on the ground feel differently.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在一線的高管們感受卻截然不同。</p>
</div><p>&#34;I don't see how private developers are going to survive,&#34; said a senior executive at a Shanghai-based firm, one of many developers to have defaulted on debt in the wake of the liquidity crunch triggered by the &#34;three red lines&#34; policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我看不出私營開發商將如何生存，” 一家總部位於上海的公司的高級高管表示，該公司是眾多在流動性危機後違約的開發商之一，流動性危機是由 “三條紅線” 政策引發的。</p>
</div><p>His company has not been able to secure new loans from banks despite offering collateral and despite the policies put in place to encourage lending to the sector, the executive said, declining to be identified due to the sensitivity of the topic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管提供了抵押品，並且儘管出台了鼓勵向該行業貸款的政策，他的公司仍未能從銀行獲得新貸款，該高管表示，由於話題的敏感性，他要求不透露姓名。</p>
</div><p>Investors are focusing on the potential for more policy support from annual plenary meetings of the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference in March, as well as a Politburo meeting in April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者正關注全國人民代表大會和中國人民政治協商會議在三月份的年度全體會議上可能提供的更多政策支持，以及四月份的政治局會議。</p>
</div><p>But a senior executive at a state-owned developer, who also declined to be identified, said he does not expect strong stimulus or other measures that would significantly change the market this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但一位國有開發商的高級高管表示，他並不期待今年會有強有力的刺激或其他措施顯著改變市場。</p>
</div><p>That's largely because over the last five years, traditional measures have already been taken - rates have been lowered, swathes of restrictions on homebuying have been lifted and banks have been encouraged to provide loans.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這主要是因為在過去五年中，傳統措施已經採取——利率已降低，購房限制已大幅放寬，銀行也被鼓勵提供貸款。</p>
</div><p>The apparent abolishment of the &#34;three red lines&#34; policy, as reported by a ministry media outlet, was also somewhat symbolic. Developers and analysts note the rules had de facto been relaxed for some time without noticeable changes in bank lending practices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>據一家部委媒體報道，“三條紅線” 政策的明顯廢除也在某種程度上是象徵性的。開發商和分析師指出，這些規則實際上已經放鬆了一段時間，但銀行的貸款實踐並沒有顯著變化。</p>
</div><p>Robert Ciemniak, CEO of research firm Real Estate Foresight, said he expects the policymaking paradigm to remain &#34;support not stimulus&#34;. Developers could benefit if there were an expansion of a scheme whereby local governments buy back land and unsold housing developments to turn them into affordable housing, he added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>房地產前瞻研究公司的首席執行官 Robert Ciemniak 表示，他預計政策制定的範式將保持 “支持而非刺激”。如果地方政府擴大回購土地和未售住房開發項目的計劃，將其轉變為經濟適用房，開發商可能會受益。</p>
</div><p>THE PAIN OF SLIDING HOME SALES</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>房屋銷售下滑的痛苦</p>
</div><p>The sector's debt crisis and the ensuing glut of unfinished apartments have weighed heavily on the world's second-largest economy, which is also grappling with the fallout of heightened trade tensions with the U.S.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該行業的債務危機和隨之而來的未完成公寓過剩對世界第二大經濟體造成了沉重打擊，該經濟體還在應對與美國加劇的貿易緊張關係帶來的後果。</p>
</div><p>Slow economic growth combined with rising job and financial insecurity has knocked homebuyer confidence, and home prices continue to fall.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>經濟增長緩慢，加上就業和財務不安全感上升，打擊了購房者的信心，房價持續下跌。</p>
</div><p>It is still too early to say that the property market has stabilised, UBS analyst John Lam said in a note to clients, highlighting weak sales of new homes and adding that any real recovery should be underpinned by rising household income.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>瑞銀分析師 John Lam 在給客户的報告中表示，目前還為時尚早，無法説房地產市場已經穩定，強調新房銷售疲軟，並補充説任何真正的復甦都應以家庭收入的增長為基礎。</p>
</div><p>China's new home prices in December dropped 2.7% year-on-year, quickening from a 2.4% fall in the previous month and marking the fastest decline in five months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國的新房價格在 12 月份同比下降了 2.7%，較上個月的 2.4% 降幅加快，創下五個月以來的最快降幅。</p>
</div><p>Separate data showed property investment in China tumbled 17.2% in 2025 while home sales by floor area decreased 8.7%. New home prices are expected to decline another 3.7% in 2026, a quarterly Reuters survey showed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>單獨數據顯示，2025 年中國房地產投資暴跌 17.2%，而按建築面積計算的房屋銷售下降了 8.7%。路透社的一項季度調查顯示，預計 2026 年新房價格將再下降 3.7%。</p>
</div><p>That will continue to spell pain for Chinese property developers struggling to make good on their debt obligations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這將繼續給努力履行債務義務的中國房地產開發商帶來痛苦。</p>
</div><p>The crisis has claimed China Evergrande, once the country's largest developer, which is now in liquidation, while Country Garden , another big name, recently completed a restructuring of its offshore debt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這場危機已經導致中國恒大，這家曾經是國內最大的開發商，如今正在清算，而另一家知名企業碧桂園最近完成了其離岸債務的重組。</p>
</div><p>China Vanke , known for major projects in the country's biggest cities, recently gained creditor approval to defer some repayments, staving off a potential default.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以在中國最大城市進行重大項目而聞名的萬科企業，最近獲得了債權人的批准，推遲部分還款，避免了潛在的違約。</p>
</div><p>But credit analysts have said Vanke will likely follow a similar path to other cash-strapped Chinese developers and is likely to eventually seek a debt restructuring.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但信用分析師表示，萬科可能會走上與其他資金緊張的中國開發商類似的道路，並最終尋求債務重組。</p>
</div>

中國房地產市場是否出現了希望的跡象？開發商表示並非如此