<p>經過數月的猜測，美國總統唐納德·特朗普確認他將提名凱文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）擔任下一任聯邦儲備委員會主席。考慮到特朗普與美國中央銀行及其現任主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）之間持續的衝突，這一任命備受關注。</p><p>對此公告的直接反應是黃金和白銀市場的顯著崩潰。在經歷了數月的創紀錄高位和高估值後，公告發布後，黃金和白銀的現貨價格分別下跌了 9% 和 28%。</p><p>美國股市也出現下跌，主要指數均報告了適度的損失。</p><p>然而，在對特朗普干預美聯儲的擔憂背景下，市場崩潰可以諷刺地被理解為對沃什獨立性和適合性的一次早期信任投票。</p><p>過去一年，特朗普與美聯儲之間的衝突前所未有。</p><p>特朗普在 2017 年任命了現任主席鮑威爾。然而，當鮑威爾沒有像總統希望的那樣迅速降息時，雙方關係惡化。特朗普用他特有的生動語言稱鮑威爾為 “小丑”，並表示他 “有一些真正的心理問題”。</p><h2>特朗普與美聯儲的戰爭</h2><p>言辭之戰演變為法律威脅。特朗普的司法部宣佈對美聯儲理事麗莎·庫克（Lisa Cook）進行調查，原因是涉嫌在歷史抵押貸款文件中存在欺詐行為。</p><p>然後在 2026 年 1 月，司法部對鮑威爾展開了一項刑事調查，涉及美聯儲辦公室裝修的超支問題。</p><p>這兩組指控普遍被視為毫無根據。然而，特朗普試圖利用這項調查作為解僱庫克的理由。此案目前正在最高法院審理。</p><p>鮑威爾強烈反擊特朗普，表示法律威脅是美聯儲根據中央銀行家對公眾利益的最佳評估設定利率的結果，而不是遵循總統的偏好。</p><p>鮑威爾得到了 14 位國際中央銀行行長的支持，他們指出 “中央銀行的獨立性是價格、金融和經濟穩定的基石”。</p><p>總統對美聯儲的干預是 1970 年代滯漲危機的主要原因。最近，阿根廷和土耳其都經歷了因干預中央銀行獨立性而導致的重大金融危機。</p><h2>沃什：鷹派還是鴿派？</h2><p>沃什曾是一名銀行家和美聯儲理事，曾擔任特朗普和前總統喬治·W·布什的經濟顧問。</p><p>最初，特朗普似乎更傾向於提名他國家經濟委員會的現任主任凱文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）擔任此職。然而，哈塞特被廣泛認為受到特朗普的過多影響。</p><p>沃什顯得更加獨立，並以通脹 “鷹派” 的聲譽而聞名——鷹派中央銀行家優先考慮抗擊通脹，而鴿派則優先考慮經濟增長和就業。</p><p>在沃什之前的美聯儲任期內，他建立了強大的通脹鷹派聲譽。即使在 2008 年全球金融危機之後，沃什也更擔心通脹而非就業。</p><p>考慮到特朗普與鮑威爾在降息問題上的過去衝突，沃什似乎是一個奇怪的候選人選擇。</p><p>然而，最近沃什已經緩和了他的觀點，呼應特朗普對美聯儲的批評和對降低利率的要求。時間將證明這種支持是否會持續，或者他的鷹派傾向是否會迴歸——導致與特朗普的未來衝突。</p><p>黃金和白銀的崩潰以及股市的下跌表明，投資者認為在沃什的領導下，降息的可能性低於其他候選人。</p><p>黃金和白銀價格通常在不穩定或對通脹的擔憂中上漲。之前的創紀錄高位是由多種因素驅動的，包括全球不穩定、對美聯儲獨立性的擔憂以及投機泡沫。</p><p>貴金屬市場的修正意味着投資者預期通脹將降低，金融穩定性將增強。美元匯率走高也支持了這一觀點。</p><h2>美聯儲的信譽岌岌可危</h2><p>在過去一個月中，關於世界秩序變化的討論頗為熱烈。加拿大總理馬克·卡尼（Mark Carney）最近譴責國際規則秩序的終結，並呼籲擺脱 “美國霸權”。</p><p>美元的全球主導地位是美國經濟霸權的重要支柱。儘管特朗普顯然對中央銀行的獨立性持懷疑態度，但他任命沃什表明他認識到保持美國貨幣和美聯儲信譽的重要性。</p><p>然而，特朗普是否能夠抑制干預利率設定的本能，仍有待觀察。THE CONVERSATION</p><p><strong>作者是悉尼大學政府與國際關係系的政治講師</strong></p>

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<p>美國總統唐納德·特朗普提名凱文·沃什為下一任聯邦儲備委員會主席，這導致黃金和白銀價格分別大幅下跌 9% 和 28%。這一市場反應反映了人們對特朗普與美聯儲之間過去衝突的擔憂，以及他試圖影響利率決策的行為。沃什被認為是一個鷹派人物，可能會帶來比特朗普之前的主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾更獨立的做法。市場的修正表明，投資者預計在沃什的領導下，通貨膨脹將降低，金融穩定性將增強</p>

<p>AFTER months of speculation, US President Donald Trump confirmed he will be nominating Kevin Warsh as the next chair of the Federal Reserve. The appointment has been closely watched in light of Trump’s ongoing conflict with the American central bank and its current chairman, Jerome Powell.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>經過數月的猜測，美國總統唐納德·特朗普確認他將提名凱文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）擔任下一任聯邦儲備委員會主席。考慮到特朗普與美國中央銀行及其現任主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）之間持續的衝突，這一任命備受關注。</p>
</div><p>The immediate reaction to the announcement was a significant crash in gold and silver markets. After months of record highs and stretched valuations, spot prices for gold and silver dropped 9 per cent and 28 per cent, respectively, after the announcement.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對此公告的直接反應是黃金和白銀市場的顯著崩潰。在經歷了數月的創紀錄高位和高估值後，公告發布後，黃金和白銀的現貨價格分別下跌了 9% 和 28%。</p>
</div><p>The US stock market also fell, with major indices all reporting modest losses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國股市也出現下跌，主要指數均報告了適度的損失。</p>
</div><p>However, in the context of concerns over Trump’s interference with the Fed, the market crash can ironically be understood as an early vote of confidence in Warsh’s independence and suitability for the role.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在對特朗普干預美聯儲的擔憂背景下，市場崩潰可以諷刺地被理解為對沃什獨立性和適合性的一次早期信任投票。</p>
</div><p>The last year has seen Trump in an unprecedented conflict with the Fed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>過去一年，特朗普與美聯儲之間的衝突前所未有。</p>
</div><p>Trump appointed current chair Powell in 2017. However, the relationship soured when Powell did not cut interest rates as quickly as the president wanted. In characteristically colourful language, Trump has called Powell a “clown” with “some real mental problems”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普在 2017 年任命了現任主席鮑威爾。然而，當鮑威爾沒有像總統希望的那樣迅速降息時，雙方關係惡化。特朗普用他特有的生動語言稱鮑威爾為 “小丑”，並表示他 “有一些真正的心理問題”。</p>
</div><h2>Trump’s war with the Fed</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特朗普與美聯儲的戰爭</h2>
</div><p>The war of words descended into legal threats. Trump’s Justice Department announced an investigation into Fed governor Lisa Cook over alleged fraud in historical mortgage documents.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>言辭之戰演變為法律威脅。特朗普的司法部宣佈對美聯儲理事麗莎·庫克（Lisa Cook）進行調查，原因是涉嫌在歷史抵押貸款文件中存在欺詐行為。</p>
</div><p>Then in January 2026, the Justice Department opened a criminal investigation into Powell relating to overspending in renovations of the Fed offices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然後在 2026 年 1 月，司法部對鮑威爾展開了一項刑事調查，涉及美聯儲辦公室裝修的超支問題。</p>
</div><p>Both sets of allegations are widely viewed as baseless. However, Trump has tried to use the investigation as grounds to fire Cook. The case is currently before the Supreme Court.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這兩組指控普遍被視為毫無根據。然而，特朗普試圖利用這項調查作為解僱庫克的理由。此案目前正在最高法院審理。</p>
</div><p>Powell has hit back strongly at Trump, saying the legal threats were a consequence of the Fed setting interest rates based on the central bankers’ best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the president.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鮑威爾強烈反擊特朗普，表示法律威脅是美聯儲根據中央銀行家對公眾利益的最佳評估設定利率的結果，而不是遵循總統的偏好。</p>
</div><p>Powell received support from 14 international central bank chiefs, who noted “the independence of central banks is a cornerstone of price, financial and economic stability”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鮑威爾得到了 14 位國際中央銀行行長的支持，他們指出 “中央銀行的獨立性是價格、金融和經濟穩定的基石”。</p>
</div><p>Presidential interference with the Fed was a major cause of the stagflation crisis in the 1970s. More recently, both Argentina and Turkey have experienced significant financial crises caused by interference with central bank independence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>總統對美聯儲的干預是 1970 年代滯漲危機的主要原因。最近，阿根廷和土耳其都經歷了因干預中央銀行獨立性而導致的重大金融危機。</p>
</div><h2>Warsh: Hawk or dove?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>沃什：鷹派還是鴿派？</h2>
</div><p>Previously a banker and Fed governor, Warsh has served as economic adviser to both Trump and former president George W Bush.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃什曾是一名銀行家和美聯儲理事，曾擔任特朗普和前總統喬治·W·布什的經濟顧問。</p>
</div><p>Originally, Trump seemed to favour the current director of his National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett, for the job. However, Hassett was widely viewed as being too influenced by Trump.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最初，特朗普似乎更傾向於提名他國家經濟委員會的現任主任凱文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）擔任此職。然而，哈塞特被廣泛認為受到特朗普的過多影響。</p>
</div><p>Warsh appears more independent and brings a reputation as an inflation “hawk” – a central banker who prioritises fighting inflation, compared to a “dove” who prioritises growth and jobs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃什顯得更加獨立，並以通脹 “鷹派” 的聲譽而聞名——鷹派中央銀行家優先考慮抗擊通脹，而鴿派則優先考慮經濟增長和就業。</p>
</div><p>From Warsh’s previous time at the Fed, he established a strong reputation as an inflation hawk. Even in the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008, Warsh was more worried about inflation than jobs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在沃什之前的美聯儲任期內，他建立了強大的通脹鷹派聲譽。即使在 2008 年全球金融危機之後，沃什也更擔心通脹而非就業。</p>
</div><p>Given Trump’s past conflict with Powell around cutting interest rates, Warsh might seem a curious choice of candidate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮到特朗普與鮑威爾在降息問題上的過去衝突，沃什似乎是一個奇怪的候選人選擇。</p>
</div><p>More recently, though, Warsh has moderated his views, echoing Trump’s criticism of the Fed and demands for lower interest rates. Time will tell whether this support will continue, or if his hawkish tendencies return – leading to future conflict with Trump.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，最近沃什已經緩和了他的觀點，呼應特朗普對美聯儲的批評和對降低利率的要求。時間將證明這種支持是否會持續，或者他的鷹派傾向是否會迴歸——導致與特朗普的未來衝突。</p>
</div><p>The crash in gold and silver and decline in stock markets suggest investors view interest rate cuts as less likely under Warsh than alternative candidates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黃金和白銀的崩潰以及股市的下跌表明，投資者認為在沃什的領導下，降息的可能性低於其他候選人。</p>
</div><p>Gold and silver prices typically rise in response to instability or fears of inflation. The previous record highs were driven by many factors, including global instability, concerns over Fed independence and a speculative bubble.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黃金和白銀價格通常在不穩定或對通脹的擔憂中上漲。之前的創紀錄高位是由多種因素驅動的，包括全球不穩定、對美聯儲獨立性的擔憂以及投機泡沫。</p>
</div><p>The market correction in precious metals means investors expect lower inflation and greater financial stability. The US dollar trading higher also supports this view.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>貴金屬市場的修正意味着投資者預期通脹將降低，金融穩定性將增強。美元匯率走高也支持了這一觀點。</p>
</div><h2>Fed credibility at stake</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美聯儲的信譽岌岌可危</h2>
</div><p>There has been much discussion of the changing world order in the past month. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney recently decried the end of the international rules-based order and called for a break from “American hegemony”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去一個月中，關於世界秩序變化的討論頗為熱烈。加拿大總理馬克·卡尼（Mark Carney）最近譴責國際規則秩序的終結，並呼籲擺脱 “美國霸權”。</p>
</div><p>The global dominance of the greenback is a crucial plank of US economic hegemony. Though Trump clearly remains sceptical of central bank independence, his appointment of Warsh suggests he recognises the importance of retaining the credibility of the American currency and Fed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元的全球主導地位是美國經濟霸權的重要支柱。儘管特朗普顯然對中央銀行的獨立性持懷疑態度，但他任命沃什表明他認識到保持美國貨幣和美聯儲信譽的重要性。</p>
</div><p>Whether Trump can temper the instinct to interfere with the setting of interest rates, however, remains to be seen. THE CONVERSATION</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，特朗普是否能夠抑制干預利率設定的本能，仍有待觀察。THE CONVERSATION</p>
</div><p><strong>The writer is lecturer in politics at the University of Sydney’s government and international relations department</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>作者是悉尼大學政府與國際關係系的政治講師</strong></p>
</div>

Why Trump’s new pick for Fed chair hit gold and silver markets

- 特朗普提名沃什為聯邦儲備委員會主席，備受市場關注。  
- 黃金、白銀價格大幅下跌，股市也出現損失。  
- 沃什的任命引發對美聯儲獨立性的擔憂。

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為什麼特朗普的新任美聯儲主席人選對黃金和白銀市場產生了影響