<p>作者：葉慧文 來源：華爾街新聞</p>
<p>週一的貴金屬市場延續了週五的下跌趨勢，現貨白銀暴跌 7%，現貨黃金下跌 4.7%，短暫跌破 4500 美元大關。</p>
<p>當前形勢非常明確：利潤正在被兑現，槓桿資金被強制平倉。多家研究機構認為，儘管長期的地緣政治博弈和債務邏輯沒有改變，但短期內不應試圖在市場崩盤時撈 “血淋淋的籌碼”。此次下跌是市場對新任美聯儲主席底線的考驗，也是對之前瘋狂投機情緒的劇烈修正。黃金和白銀暴跌：不僅僅是 Warsh 的影響，而是去槓桿化的連鎖反應。這次暴跌並不是由單一因素造成的，而是政策預期、交易擁堵和交易所幹預的共振。1. 觸發因素：Warsh 的提名，鷹派預期上升。華泰證券和天風證券指出，特朗普提名凱文·Warsh 為新任美聯儲主席是直接觸發因素。Warsh 被視為 “鷹派”，其核心提案包括 “降息 + 縮表”。天風證券補充説，Warsh 在 2006 年至 2011 年任職期間被稱為 “通脹鷹派”。市場對他上任後美聯儲獨立性減弱的擔憂導致美元反彈，流動性收緊的預期壓制了貴金屬。2. 機械性拋售：交易所協同 “降温”。華泰證券和財通證券強調了交易所幹預的影響。芝加哥商品交易所（CME）和上海期貨交易所（SHFE）幾乎同時提高了保證金要求。CME 在 1 月底兩次提高黃金和白銀的保證金要求，將白銀從 11% 提高到 15%；SHFE 也隨之而來。財通證券補充了逼空和期權伽馬壓力的因素。截至 1 月 29 日，上海白銀期貨主合約的開盤與平倉比率達到了 8.75，顯著高於同期歷史平均水平；同時，大量散户投資者購買看漲期權，迫使做市商購買期貨進行對沖，推高價格。一旦交易所加強幹預（如 CME 六次提高黃金和白銀的保證金要求），資金流出，這一正反饋循環瞬間逆轉為崩潰。此外，白銀 ETF 持有量的急劇下降也是調整的重要信號。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.foresightnews.pro/202602/4-1770024520964?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.foresightnews.pro/202602/4-1770024520964"/></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.foresightnews.pro/202602/4-1770024521537?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.foresightnews.pro/202602/4-1770024521537"/></p>
<ol>
<li>根本原因：極度擁擠的投機頭寸和利潤兑現。華泰證券指出，在崩盤之前，非金屬（尤其是白銀）是全球最擁擠的多頭商品。天風證券的數據表明，黃金的 14 天相對強弱指數（RSI）在 1 月 28 日突破 90，這是本世紀首次，表明極端的 “超買” 狀態。</li>
</ol>
<p>...</p>
<p>創始證券監測到，白銀波動率指數在 1 月 29 日上升至 111，創下歷史新高。財通證券認為，之前的快速價格上漲是由逼空和期權伽馬擠壓效應共同驅動的。一旦情緒逆轉，去槓桿化過程將極為殘酷。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.foresightnews.pro/202602/4-1770024522043?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.foresightnews.pro/202602/4-1770024522043"/></p>
<ol>
<li>宏觀經濟干擾：對人工智能科技股盈利能力的擔憂。華泰證券還提到，微軟和特斯拉等科技巨頭的財報引發了市場對人工智能投資回報的擔憂，導致美國股市風險規避情緒上升，一些資金出售貴金屬以緩解股市流動性。</li>
</ol>
<ol>
<li>宏觀經濟干擾：對人工智能科技股盈利能力的擔憂。</li>
</ol>
<p>市場展望：長期邏輯保持不變，短期波動不可避免。儘管近期出現了大幅下跌，但大多數機構認為貴金屬的長期牛市邏輯並未從根本上逆轉。1. 長期邏輯保持不變，短期波動在預期之中。天風證券認為，黃金將在短期內進入寬幅波動期，謹慎的買入情緒依然存在。然而，在全球競爭格局的關鍵時刻，全球央行對黃金的長期需求將繼續作為價格的基本支撐，而 “黃金故事” 不會就此結束。財通證券也表示，長期邏輯並未逆轉。國際市場對美國債務可持續性和美聯儲獨立性的擔憂將繼續推動央行和私營部門增加黃金儲備。2. 政策不確定性依然存在。華泰證券維持長期看漲觀點，認為有色金屬仍然是受全球製造週期、地緣政治重組和人工智能技術等因素驅動最顯著的行業。創始證券的分析表明，未來市場趨勢取決於多種因素的展開。關鍵變量包括：首先，大國競爭的長期性質及短期緩和的潛在窗口；其次，人工智能技術在推動全要素生產率增長方面的實際進展；第三，新任美聯儲主席沃爾什能否在內部政治阻力（如反對提名、內部分歧和前任政府的壓力）下堅持其政策立場（如獨立性和資產負債表縮減）。創始證券的綜合分析得出，貴金屬牛市的完全逆轉需要同時滿足多個嚴格條件（如全球生產力革命的快速發生、沃爾 Walsh 強有力的收緊實施而不擾亂市場，以及央行黃金購買的下降），這種情景發生的概率極低。因此，在經歷一段調整和風險釋放後，貴金屬仍然具有顯著的長期投資價值。建議關注業績穩定、基本面優秀、增長潛力明確、估值合理的核心公司。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.foresightnews.pro/202602/4-1770024522401?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.foresightnews.pro/202602/4-1770024522401"/></p>
<h2>買入回調：不要急於抄底，等待波動性迴歸</h2>
<p>關於投資者最關心的問題 “何時入市”，大多數機構普遍建議耐心等待波動性迴歸。</p>
<ol>
<li>注意波動性的下降。華泰證券明確警告，短期 “買入回調” 需謹慎。由於市場波動性持續較高，去槓桿和泡沫消退仍在進行中。</li>
</ol>
<p>財通證券提供了具體的量化指標：建議等待隱含波動率降至 20% 以下，這可能是再次做多的好時機。2. 參考歷史修正週期。財通證券回顧歷史數據指出，近年來，黃金在達到峯值後，平均修正時間約為 18 天，修正幅度約為 8%。這為投資者提供了時間窗口參考。華泰證券建議等待市場波動性從極高水平顯著下降（如黃金隱含波動率 &gt; 35%），並在關鍵支撐位（如黃金在 4700 美元/盎司）觀察穩定信號，以避免在市場崩盤的高點買入。3. 注意現貨與期貨市場之間的價格差異風險。華泰證券特別提醒國內投資者，上海銀還有進一步下跌的空間。當 1 月 30 日出現大幅下跌時，上海銀的收盤價為每盎司 111 美元，而倫敦銀已跌至每盎司 85 美元。這意味着上海銀仍比國際市場溢價約 30%，應注意上海銀價格進一步下跌的風險。4. 注意交割月的逼空風險。華泰證券提到，3 月是銀的主要交割月。目前，CME 期貨的總未平倉合約遠高於可交割庫存。需要關注交割月是否會出現逼空，這既是風險也是潛在的投機點。</p>

<p>貴金屬市場出現顯著下跌，白銀下跌了 7%，黃金下跌了 4.7%。此次下跌歸因於獲利了結和被迫平倉，受到凱文·沃什被提名為新任美聯儲主席的影響，市場對加息的預期上升。交易所的干預和擁擠的投機頭寸進一步加劇了拋售。儘管短期內波動性較大，機構仍對貴金屬保持長期看漲的觀點，認為中央銀行的持續需求和地緣政治因素是支撐價格的關鍵因素</p>

<p>Author: Ye Huiwen Source: Wall Street News</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：葉慧文 來源：華爾街新聞</p>
</div><p>Monday's precious metals market continued Friday's downward trend, with spot silver plunging 7% and spot gold falling 4.7%, briefly breaking below the $4,500 mark.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週一的貴金屬市場延續了週五的下跌趨勢，現貨白銀暴跌 7%，現貨黃金下跌 4.7%，短暫跌破 4500 美元大關。</p>
</div><p>The current situation is very clear: profits are being taken, and leveraged funds are being forcibly liquidated. Multiple research institutions believe that although the long-term geopolitical game and debt logic remain unchanged, in the short term, one should not try to catch &#34;bloody chips&#34; during a market crash. This decline is the market testing the new Federal Reserve Chairman's bottom line and is also a violent correction of the previous frenzied speculative sentiment. Gold and Silver Plunge: Not Just Warsh, But a Chain Reaction of Deleveraging This plunge was not caused by a single factor, but rather by a resonance of policy expectations, trading congestion, and exchange intervention. 1. Trigger: Warsh's Nomination, Rising Hawkish Expectations. Both Huatai Securities and Tianfeng Securities pointed out that Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman was the direct trigger. Warsh is considered a &#34;hawk,&#34; and his core proposals include &#34;interest rate cuts + balance sheet reduction.&#34; Tianfeng Securities added that Warsh was known as an &#34;inflation hawk&#34; during his tenure from 2006 to 2011. Market concerns about the Fed's independence easing after his appointment led to a dollar rebound, and expectations of tightening liquidity suppressed precious metals. 2. Mechanistic Sell-Off: Exchanges Collaborate to &#34;Cool Down&#34; Huatai Securities and Caitong Securities emphasized the impact of exchange intervention. The CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) raised margin requirements almost simultaneously. The CME raised margin requirements for gold and silver twice in late January, increasing silver from 11% to 15%; the SHFE followed suit. Caitong Securities added the factors of short squeeze and option gamma pressure. As of January 29, the ratio of open to closed positions in the Shanghai silver futures main contract reached 8.75, significantly higher than the historical average for the same period; simultaneously, a large number of retail investors bought call options, forcing market makers to buy futures to hedge, pushing up prices. Once exchanges strengthened intervention (such as the CME's six increases in gold and silver margin requirements), funds flowed out, and this positive feedback loop instantly reversed into collapse. Furthermore, the sharp decline in silver ETF holdings is also an important signal of adjustment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當前形勢非常明確：利潤正在被兑現，槓桿資金被強制平倉。多家研究機構認為，儘管長期的地緣政治博弈和債務邏輯沒有改變，但短期內不應試圖在市場崩盤時撈 “血淋淋的籌碼”。此次下跌是市場對新任美聯儲主席底線的考驗，也是對之前瘋狂投機情緒的劇烈修正。黃金和白銀暴跌：不僅僅是 Warsh 的影響，而是去槓桿化的連鎖反應。這次暴跌並不是由單一因素造成的，而是政策預期、交易擁堵和交易所幹預的共振。1. 觸發因素：Warsh 的提名，鷹派預期上升。華泰證券和天風證券指出，特朗普提名凱文·Warsh 為新任美聯儲主席是直接觸發因素。Warsh 被視為 “鷹派”，其核心提案包括 “降息 + 縮表”。天風證券補充説，Warsh 在 2006 年至 2011 年任職期間被稱為 “通脹鷹派”。市場對他上任後美聯儲獨立性減弱的擔憂導致美元反彈，流動性收緊的預期壓制了貴金屬。2. 機械性拋售：交易所協同 “降温”。華泰證券和財通證券強調了交易所幹預的影響。芝加哥商品交易所（CME）和上海期貨交易所（SHFE）幾乎同時提高了保證金要求。CME 在 1 月底兩次提高黃金和白銀的保證金要求，將白銀從 11% 提高到 15%；SHFE 也隨之而來。財通證券補充了逼空和期權伽馬壓力的因素。截至 1 月 29 日，上海白銀期貨主合約的開盤與平倉比率達到了 8.75，顯著高於同期歷史平均水平；同時，大量散户投資者購買看漲期權，迫使做市商購買期貨進行對沖，推高價格。一旦交易所加強幹預（如 CME 六次提高黃金和白銀的保證金要求），資金流出，這一正反饋循環瞬間逆轉為崩潰。此外，白銀 ETF 持有量的急劇下降也是調整的重要信號。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.foresightnews.pro/202602/4-1770024520964" alt="" original-src="https://img.foresightnews.pro/202602/4-1770024520964?x-oss-process=style/scale70"/></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.foresightnews.pro/202602/4-1770024521537" alt="" original-src="https://img.foresightnews.pro/202602/4-1770024521537?x-oss-process=style/scale70"/></p>
<p>3. Root cause: Extremely crowded speculative positions and profit-taking. Huatai Securities pointed out that before the crash, non-ferrous metals (especially silver) were the most crowded commodities for long positions globally. Data from Tianfeng Securities shows that the 14-day RSI indicator for gold broke through 90 on January 28th, the first time this century, indicating extreme &#34;overbought&#34; conditions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>根本原因：極度擁擠的投機頭寸和利潤兑現。華泰證券指出，在崩盤之前，非金屬（尤其是白銀）是全球最擁擠的多頭商品。天風證券的數據表明，黃金的 14 天相對強弱指數（RSI）在 1 月 28 日突破 90，這是本世紀首次，表明極端的 “超買” 狀態。</li>
</ol>
</div><p>...</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>...</p>
</div><p>Founder Securities monitored that the silver volatility index rose to 111 on January 29, hitting a new historical high. Caitong Securities believes that the previous rapid price increase was driven by a combination of short squeeze and option gamma squeeze effect. Once the sentiment reverses, the deleveraging process will be extremely brutal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>創始證券監測到，白銀波動率指數在 1 月 29 日上升至 111，創下歷史新高。財通證券認為，之前的快速價格上漲是由逼空和期權伽馬擠壓效應共同驅動的。一旦情緒逆轉，去槓桿化過程將極為殘酷。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.foresightnews.pro/202602/4-1770024522043" alt="" original-src="https://img.foresightnews.pro/202602/4-1770024522043?x-oss-process=style/scale70"/></p>
<p>4. Macroeconomic Disturbances: Concerns about AI Technology Stock Profitability. Huatai Securities also mentioned that the financial reports of tech giants such as Microsoft and Tesla have triggered market concerns about the return on AI investments, leading to a rise in risk-off sentiment in US stocks, with some funds selling precious metals to remedy stock market liquidity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>宏觀經濟干擾：對人工智能科技股盈利能力的擔憂。華泰證券還提到，微軟和特斯拉等科技巨頭的財報引發了市場對人工智能投資回報的擔憂，導致美國股市風險規避情緒上升，一些資金出售貴金屬以緩解股市流動性。</li>
</ol>
</div><p>4. Macroeconomic Disturbances: Concerns about AI Technology Stock Profitability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>宏觀經濟干擾：對人工智能科技股盈利能力的擔憂。</li>
</ol>
</div><p>... Market Outlook: Long-Term Logic Remains Unchanged, Short-Term Volatility Inevitable Despite the recent sharp decline, most institutions believe that the long-term bull market logic for precious metals has not fundamentally reversed. 1. Long-term logic remains unchanged, short-term volatility is expected. Tianfeng Securities believes that gold will enter a period of wide-range volatility in the short term, with cautious buying sentiment. However, at a critical juncture in the global competitive landscape, the long-term demand for gold by global central banks will continue to serve as the fundamental support for prices, and the &#34;gold story&#34; will not end here. Caitong Securities also stated that the long-term logic has not reversed. International market concerns about the sustainability of US debt and the independence of the Federal Reserve will continue to drive central banks and the private sector to increase their gold reserves. 2. Policy uncertainty remains. Huatai Securities maintains a long-term bullish view, believing that non-ferrous metals remain the sector most significantly driven by factors such as the global manufacturing cycle, geopolitical restructuring, and AI technology. Founder Securities analysis suggests that future market trends depend on the unfolding of multiple factors. Key variables include: first, the long-term nature of great power rivalry and the potential short-term window for easing; second, the actual progress of AI technology in driving total factor productivity growth; and third, whether the new Federal Reserve Chairman, Warsh, can uphold his policy positions (such as independence and balance sheet reduction) despite internal political resistance (e.g., opposition to nomination, internal divisions, and pressure from the previous administration). Founder Securities' comprehensive analysis concludes that a complete reversal of the precious metals bull market would require the simultaneous fulfillment of several stringent conditions (e.g., a rapid global productivity revolution, Warsh's strong implementation of tightening without disrupting the market, and a decline in central bank gold purchases), a scenario with extremely low probability of occurrence. Therefore, after a period of adjustment and risk release, precious metals still hold significant long-term investment value. It is recommended to focus on core companies with stable performance, excellent fundamentals, clear growth potential, and reasonable valuations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場展望：長期邏輯保持不變，短期波動不可避免。儘管近期出現了大幅下跌，但大多數機構認為貴金屬的長期牛市邏輯並未從根本上逆轉。1. 長期邏輯保持不變，短期波動在預期之中。天風證券認為，黃金將在短期內進入寬幅波動期，謹慎的買入情緒依然存在。然而，在全球競爭格局的關鍵時刻，全球央行對黃金的長期需求將繼續作為價格的基本支撐，而 “黃金故事” 不會就此結束。財通證券也表示，長期邏輯並未逆轉。國際市場對美國債務可持續性和美聯儲獨立性的擔憂將繼續推動央行和私營部門增加黃金儲備。2. 政策不確定性依然存在。華泰證券維持長期看漲觀點，認為有色金屬仍然是受全球製造週期、地緣政治重組和人工智能技術等因素驅動最顯著的行業。創始證券的分析表明，未來市場趨勢取決於多種因素的展開。關鍵變量包括：首先，大國競爭的長期性質及短期緩和的潛在窗口；其次，人工智能技術在推動全要素生產率增長方面的實際進展；第三，新任美聯儲主席沃爾什能否在內部政治阻力（如反對提名、內部分歧和前任政府的壓力）下堅持其政策立場（如獨立性和資產負債表縮減）。創始證券的綜合分析得出，貴金屬牛市的完全逆轉需要同時滿足多個嚴格條件（如全球生產力革命的快速發生、沃爾 Walsh 強有力的收緊實施而不擾亂市場，以及央行黃金購買的下降），這種情景發生的概率極低。因此，在經歷一段調整和風險釋放後，貴金屬仍然具有顯著的長期投資價值。建議關注業績穩定、基本面優秀、增長潛力明確、估值合理的核心公司。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.foresightnews.pro/202602/4-1770024522401" alt="" original-src="https://img.foresightnews.pro/202602/4-1770024522401?x-oss-process=style/scale70"/></p>
<h2>Buying the Dip: Don't Rush to Catch a Falling Knife, Wait for Volatility to Return</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>買入回調：不要急於抄底，等待波動性迴歸</h2>
</div><p>Regarding the most pressing question for investors, &#34;When to enter the market,&#34; most institutions generally advise patience and waiting for volatility to return.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關於投資者最關心的問題 “何時入市”，大多數機構普遍建議耐心等待波動性迴歸。</p>
</div><p>1. Pay attention to the decline in volatility. Huatai Securities explicitly warns that short-term &#34;buying the dip&#34; requires caution. Due to persistently high market volatility, deleveraging and bubble deflation are still ongoing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>注意波動性的下降。華泰證券明確警告，短期 “買入回調” 需謹慎。由於市場波動性持續較高，去槓桿和泡沫消退仍在進行中。</li>
</ol>
</div><p>Caitong Securities provides specific quantitative indicators: It suggests waiting for implied volatility to fall below 20%, which may be a good time to go long again. 2. Refer to historical correction cycles. Caitong Securities, reviewing historical data, points out that in recent years, after gold has peaked, the average correction time is about 18 days, with a correction range of about 8%. This provides investors with a time window reference. Huatai Securities suggests waiting for market volatility to fall significantly from extreme highs (such as gold's implied volatility &gt; 35%) and observing stabilization signals at key support levels (such as gold at $4700/ounce) to avoid buying at the peak of a market crash. 3. Be wary of the risk of price differences between spot and futures markets. Huatai Securities specifically reminds domestic investors that Shanghai silver has room for further decline. When the sharp drop occurred, the closing price of Shanghai silver on January 30th was $111 per ounce, while London silver had already fallen to $85 per ounce. This means that Shanghai silver still had a premium of about 30% over the international market, and the risk of a further decline in Shanghai silver prices should be noted. 4. Pay attention to the risk of a short squeeze in the delivery month. Huatai Securities mentioned that March is the main delivery month for silver. Currently, the total open interest of CME futures is far higher than the deliverable inventory. It is necessary to pay attention to whether a short squeeze will occur in the delivery month, which is both a risk and a potential point of speculation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>財通證券提供了具體的量化指標：建議等待隱含波動率降至 20% 以下，這可能是再次做多的好時機。2. 參考歷史修正週期。財通證券回顧歷史數據指出，近年來，黃金在達到峯值後，平均修正時間約為 18 天，修正幅度約為 8%。這為投資者提供了時間窗口參考。華泰證券建議等待市場波動性從極高水平顯著下降（如黃金隱含波動率 &gt; 35%），並在關鍵支撐位（如黃金在 4700 美元/盎司）觀察穩定信號，以避免在市場崩盤的高點買入。3. 注意現貨與期貨市場之間的價格差異風險。華泰證券特別提醒國內投資者，上海銀還有進一步下跌的空間。當 1 月 30 日出現大幅下跌時，上海銀的收盤價為每盎司 111 美元，而倫敦銀已跌至每盎司 85 美元。這意味着上海銀仍比國際市場溢價約 30%，應注意上海銀價格進一步下跌的風險。4. 注意交割月的逼空風險。華泰證券提到，3 月是銀的主要交割月。目前，CME 期貨的總未平倉合約遠高於可交割庫存。需要關注交割月是否會出現逼空，這既是風險也是潛在的投機點。</p>
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