<p>私人信貸基金在 2024 年和 2025 年非常受歡迎，因為機構投資者和高淨值零售投資者尋求更多風險和更高回報。然而，在過去幾個月，這一趨勢開始逆轉。《金融時報》報道，私人信貸投資者在第四季度從一些最大的私人信貸基金中撤回了超過 70 億美元。儘管這個金額相當可觀，但與私人信貸行業估計的 2500 億美元相比，撤回的金額仍然較小，而私人信貸基金的規模超過 5000 億美元。以下圖表來自《金融時報》，顯示了私人信貸基金贖回請求的增加。</p>
<p>投資者的擔憂最初是由 2025 年 9 月的 Tricolor 和 First Brands 破產引發的。更讓他們擔憂的是，美聯儲的降息降低了浮動利率債務的吸引力，而浮動利率債務是許多私人信貸貸款的基礎。儘管出現了兩起引人注目的違約，但仍有一些信號表明信用質量在惡化。為此，我們分享了以下《金融時報》文章中的幾條引用。請記住，這些引用來自通過擴大私人信貸基金獲利的管理者。</p>
<blockquote>
<p><em>Ares 在 12 月告訴其基金客户，其投資仍然 “健康”，並承諾在 6 月之前維持其分紅。</em></p>
<p><em>黑石表示，“投資者繼續認識到私人信貸相對於公共固定收益所能提供的溢價”。</em></p>
<p><em>Cliffwater 的 Hasbrouck 表示，該公司 “對我們的表現能力並不擔心，因為我們有大量流動性支持，我們認為季度之間情況會變得更好。”</em></p>
</blockquote>
<p>值得一提的是，銀行流動性在第四季度顯示出一些壓力。因此，美聯儲在 2025 年 10 月停止了量化緊縮，並在 12 月開始了量化寬鬆。這一政策的逆轉旨在解決因多次出現不規則的隔夜借貸利率而引發的流動性擔憂。風險較高的信貸，如私人信貸基金，提供了市場風險承受能力和流動性的良好指標。如果當前趨勢在 2026 年持續，這些贖回可能是更廣泛流動性、金融和經濟疲軟的早期警示信號。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/private-credit-funds.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/private-credit-funds.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>今日關注</strong></h3>
<p><strong>收益</strong></p>
<p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/image-38-1024x705.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/image-38-1024x705.png"/></p>
<p><strong>經濟</strong></p>
<p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/image-37-1024x194.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/image-37-1024x194.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>市場交易更新</strong></h3>
<p><strong><em>昨天，</em></strong> 我們回顧了市場的技術背景。然而，這也是一個新月的開始，而這個月恰好是全年較弱的月份之一。從季節性角度來看，2 月份的回報通常低於其他季節性強勁時期的月份，勝率大約為 50/50。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.isabelnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Seasonality-SP-500-Index-Average-Monthly-Returns.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.isabelnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Seasonality-SP-500-Index-Average-Monthly-Returns.png"/></p>
<p>好消息是，1 月的前五天和整個 1 月都是正面的，這對全年回報是個好兆頭。當標準普爾 500 指數在前五天上漲超過 1% 且 1 月收盤為正時，市場在 92% 的情況下全年收高，自 1950 年以來的中位數增幅為 19.1%。</p>
<p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.isabelnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SP-500-Returns-First-Five-Days-1-and-a-Positive-January-Combo-small.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.isabelnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SP-500-Returns-First-Five-Days-1-and-a-Positive-January-Combo-small.png"/></p>
<p>雖然數據表明，任何短期的疲軟可能是暫時的，但考慮到與長期均值的顯著偏離，這些修正可能會更大。因此，更加密切地管理風險可能是明智的。貴金屬投資者在週五領悟了 “風險” 的含義。諷刺的是，持有貴金屬的理由是為了逃離股市，因為股市將要崩潰。</p>
<p>這可能是事實。然而，股市不會在一天內崩潰 30%。白銀卻崩潰了。</p>
<p>教訓是管理好你的風險，不要過度擴張，控制你的槓桿。目標不是快速致富，而是生存於長期遊戲中。</p>
<h3><strong>消費品上升，而原材料和工業品下滑</strong></h3>
<p>上週的波動打亂了許多行業和因素的絕對和相對分析評分及排名。如第一張圖所示，來自 SimpleVisor，工業和材料行業極度超買，表現不佳，現在的交易價格更接近公允價值。在頂部圖表的右側，您可以看到這兩個行業如何從右上角旋轉，表明在相對和絕對評分上超買。同時，消費品行業繼續攀升。請注意，公用事業行業在兩個評分上終於開始上升。它是否會跟隨消費品？</p>
<p>第二張圖顯示，上週的波動如何動搖了科技行業。標準普爾 500 指數和科技行業 ETF（XLK）中市值最大的三隻股票跨越了超買 - 超賣範圍。NVDA 上漲到超買，而蘋果改善到公允價值，微軟由於收益表現不佳，現在非常超賣。值得注意的是，黃金礦業因素在不到一週的時間內從極度超買跌至公允價值。這對於該分析來説是一個急劇的變化，但考慮到其價格在上週末下跌了 15%。</p>
<p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/xlb-xli-1024x512.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/xlb-xli-1024x512.png"/></p>
<p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/technology-1024x566.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/technology-1024x566.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>可能驅動 2026 年回報的市場週期</strong></h3>
<p>市場週期再次成為投資敍事的中心，隨着我們邁向 2026 年。樂觀情緒似曾相識，因為 2025 年的盈利表現良好，經濟避免了衰退，大型科技公司推動了指數上漲。然而，這些勝利已經反映在價格中。隨着我們進入 2026 年，估值已被拉高，錯誤的餘地變得狹窄。然而，儘管分析師對今年非常樂觀，但另一個強勁年份的理由在很大程度上依賴於歷史模式。</p>
<p>讓我們從總統週期開始。與總統日曆相關的市場週期表明，新政府的第二年通常較為緩慢。自 1948 年以來，總統任期的第三年和第四年帶來了最顯著的回報，而第二年，即選舉後的年份，表現較弱，收益温和且勝率較低。數據如下所示，儘管 2025 年的交易高於歷史標準，但 2026 年可能不會如此幸運。</p>
<p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-1024x831.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-1024x831.png"/></p>
<p>自 1871 年以來，市場在其中 30 年中獲得了收益，僅在 18 年中出現虧損，勝率約為 62%。雖然比 “拋硬幣” 要好，但遠低於第三年和第四年的勝率。2026 年市場的另一個潛在阻力是中期選舉，這可能導致眾議院或參議院控制權的變化，從而導致華盛頓的僵局加劇。</p>
<p>閲讀更多…</p>
<h3><strong>今日推文</strong></h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/grondhog-day.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/grondhog-day.png"/></p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>可能推動 2026 年回報的市場週期</p>
<p>Warsh 將擔任美聯儲主席</p>
<p>Meta 和 Microsoft：優秀的盈利表現但結果不同</p>

<p>私募信貸基金曾因尋求更高回報而受到投資者的青睞，但現在正面臨下降的趨勢。在 2025 年第四季度，超過 70 億美元從主要私募信貸基金中撤出，這引發了人們對破產和浮動利率債務吸引力下降的擔憂。儘管如此，一些基金經理對他們的投資仍持樂觀態度。美聯儲的政策逆轉以應對流動性問題，可能表明更廣泛的經濟擔憂。此外，市場趨勢顯示出潛在的短期疲軟，強調了風險管理對投資者的重要性</p>

<p>Private credit funds were all the rage in 2024 and 2025 as institutional and high-net-worth retail investors sought more risk and higher returns. Over the last few months, that trend has started reversing. The FT reports that private credit investors pulled more than $7 billion from some of the biggest private credit funds in the fourth quarter. While sizable, the amount withdrawn is small compared to the estimated $2.5 billion in the private credit industry, of which private credit funds account for over $500 billion. The graphic below, courtesy of the FT, shows the pickup in private credit fund redemption requests.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>私人信貸基金在 2024 年和 2025 年非常受歡迎，因為機構投資者和高淨值零售投資者尋求更多風險和更高回報。然而，在過去幾個月，這一趨勢開始逆轉。《金融時報》報道，私人信貸投資者在第四季度從一些最大的私人信貸基金中撤回了超過 70 億美元。儘管這個金額相當可觀，但與私人信貸行業估計的 2500 億美元相比，撤回的金額仍然較小，而私人信貸基金的規模超過 5000 億美元。以下圖表來自《金融時報》，顯示了私人信貸基金贖回請求的增加。</p>
</div><p>Investors’ concern was initially sparked by the Tricolor and First Brands bankruptcies in September 2025. Adding to their worries, Fed rate cuts are reducing the appeal of floating-rate debt, which underpins many private credit loans. Despite the two headline defaults, there are a few signs of deteriorating credit quality. To wit, we share a few quotes from the FT article below. Bear in mind that the quotes are from managers who profit by growing their private credit funds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者的擔憂最初是由 2025 年 9 月的 Tricolor 和 First Brands 破產引發的。更讓他們擔憂的是，美聯儲的降息降低了浮動利率債務的吸引力，而浮動利率債務是許多私人信貸貸款的基礎。儘管出現了兩起引人注目的違約，但仍有一些信號表明信用質量在惡化。為此，我們分享了以下《金融時報》文章中的幾條引用。請記住，這些引用來自通過擴大私人信貸基金獲利的管理者。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p><em>Ares in December told clients in its fund that its investments remained “healthy” and that it would commit to maintaining its dividend through June.</em></p>
<p><em>Blackstone said that “investors continue to recognise the premium private credit can offer versus public fixed income”.</em></p>
<p><em>Cliffwater’s Hasbrouck said the firm was “not worried about our ability to perform, knowing that we have a lot of liquidity behind us and we think quarter on quarter things will get better.”</em></p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p><em>Ares 在 12 月告訴其基金客户，其投資仍然 “健康”，並承諾在 6 月之前維持其分紅。</em></p>
<p><em>黑石表示，“投資者繼續認識到私人信貸相對於公共固定收益所能提供的溢價”。</em></p>
<p><em>Cliffwater 的 Hasbrouck 表示，該公司 “對我們的表現能力並不擔心，因為我們有大量流動性支持，我們認為季度之間情況會變得更好。”</em></p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>It’s also worth adding that banking liquidity showed some signs of stress in the fourth quarter. As a result, the Fed halted QT in October 2025 and started QE in December. The reversal in policy is meant to address liquidity concerns sparked by numerous instances of irregular overnight borrowing interest rates. Riskier credits, such as private credit funds, provide a good gauge of the market’s risk tolerance and liquidity. If the current trends persist in 2026, these redemptions may be an early warning sign of broader liquidity, financial, and economic weakness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得一提的是，銀行流動性在第四季度顯示出一些壓力。因此，美聯儲在 2025 年 10 月停止了量化緊縮，並在 12 月開始了量化寬鬆。這一政策的逆轉旨在解決因多次出現不規則的隔夜借貸利率而引發的流動性擔憂。風險較高的信貸，如私人信貸基金，提供了市場風險承受能力和流動性的良好指標。如果當前趨勢在 2026 年持續，這些贖回可能是更廣泛流動性、金融和經濟疲軟的早期警示信號。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/private-credit-funds.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/private-credit-funds.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>What To Watch Today</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>今日關注</strong></h3>
</div><p><strong>Earnings</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>收益</strong></p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/image-38-1024x705.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/image-38-1024x705.png"/></p>
<p><strong>Economy</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>經濟</strong></p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/image-37-1024x194.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/image-37-1024x194.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>Market Trading Update</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>市場交易更新</strong></h3>
</div><p><strong><em>Yesterday,</em></strong> we reviewed the technical backdrop of the market. However, this is also the beginning of a new month, which happens to be one of the weaker months of the year. From a seasonality perspective, the month of February tends to have lower returns than other months of the seasonally strong period, and has about a 50/50 win rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>昨天，</em></strong> 我們回顧了市場的技術背景。然而，這也是一個新月的開始，而這個月恰好是全年較弱的月份之一。從季節性角度來看，2 月份的回報通常低於其他季節性強勁時期的月份，勝率大約為 50/50。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.isabelnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Seasonality-SP-500-Index-Average-Monthly-Returns.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.isabelnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Seasonality-SP-500-Index-Average-Monthly-Returns.png"/></p>
<p>The good news is that both the first 5 days of January and the entire month were positive, which bodes well for full-year returns. When the S&amp;P 500 rises more than 1% in the first five days, and January closes in the green, the market has finished the year higher 92% of the time, with a median 19.1% gain since 1950.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>好消息是，1 月的前五天和整個 1 月都是正面的，這對全年回報是個好兆頭。當標準普爾 500 指數在前五天上漲超過 1% 且 1 月收盤為正時，市場在 92% 的情況下全年收高，自 1950 年以來的中位數增幅為 19.1%。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.isabelnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SP-500-Returns-First-Five-Days-1-and-a-Positive-January-Combo-small.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.isabelnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SP-500-Returns-First-Five-Days-1-and-a-Positive-January-Combo-small.png"/></p>
<p>While the data suggests that any near-term weakness will likely be temporary, given the more significant deviations from long-term means, those corrections could be larger. As such, it will likely pay to manage risk more closely. Precious metals investors learned the meaning of “risk” on Friday. The irony is that the rational for owning metals was to get out of the stock market because it was going to crash.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然數據表明，任何短期的疲軟可能是暫時的，但考慮到與長期均值的顯著偏離，這些修正可能會更大。因此，更加密切地管理風險可能是明智的。貴金屬投資者在週五領悟了 “風險” 的含義。諷刺的是，持有貴金屬的理由是為了逃離股市，因為股市將要崩潰。</p>
</div><p>That may be true. However, the stock market doesn’t crash by 30% in a day. Silver did.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這可能是事實。然而，股市不會在一天內崩潰 30%。白銀卻崩潰了。</p>
</div><p>The lesson is to manage your risk, don’t get overextended, and control your leverage. The goal is not to get rich quickly; it is to survive the long game.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>教訓是管理好你的風險，不要過度擴張，控制你的槓桿。目標不是快速致富，而是生存於長期遊戲中。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Staples Assent While Materials &amp; Industrials Fade</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>消費品上升，而原材料和工業品下滑</strong></h3>
</div><p>Last week’s volatility shook up the absolute and relative analysis scores and placements of many sectors and factors. As shown in the first graphic, courtesy of SimpleVisor, Industrials and Materials, which were extremely overbought, have underperformed and are now trading closer toward fair value. Within the top graph, on the right side, you can see how both sectors have rotated from the top right corner, signifying overbought on relative and absolute scores. At the same time, the Staples sector continues to climb the charts. Note that the Utility sector is finally moving higher across both scores. Might it be following Staples?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上週的波動打亂了許多行業和因素的絕對和相對分析評分及排名。如第一張圖所示，來自 SimpleVisor，工業和材料行業極度超買，表現不佳，現在的交易價格更接近公允價值。在頂部圖表的右側，您可以看到這兩個行業如何從右上角旋轉，表明在相對和絕對評分上超買。同時，消費品行業繼續攀升。請注意，公用事業行業在兩個評分上終於開始上升。它是否會跟隨消費品？</p>
</div><p>The second graphic shows how the volatility of the last week has shaken up the Technology sector. The three largest stocks by market cap in the S&amp;P 500 and the Technology sector ETF (XLK) span the overbought-oversold range. NVDA has risen nicely to overbought, while Apple has improved to fair value, and Microsoft, with its poor price performance due to earnings, is now very oversold. It’s also worth noting that the Gold Miner factor, which was extremely overbought, fell to fair value in less than a week. That is a sharp move for this analysis, but consider its price fell by 15% late last week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第二張圖顯示，上週的波動如何動搖了科技行業。標準普爾 500 指數和科技行業 ETF（XLK）中市值最大的三隻股票跨越了超買 - 超賣範圍。NVDA 上漲到超買，而蘋果改善到公允價值，微軟由於收益表現不佳，現在非常超賣。值得注意的是，黃金礦業因素在不到一週的時間內從極度超買跌至公允價值。這對於該分析來説是一個急劇的變化，但考慮到其價格在上週末下跌了 15%。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/xlb-xli-1024x512.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/xlb-xli-1024x512.png"/></p>
<p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
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</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/technology-1024x566.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/technology-1024x566.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>The Market Cycles Potentially Driving 2026 Returns</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>可能驅動 2026 年回報的市場週期</strong></h3>
</div><p>Market cycles are once again at the center of the investment narrative as we head into 2026. The optimism is familiar as earnings held up in 2025, the economy avoided recession, and big tech lifted the indexes. However, those victories are already reflected in the price. As we head into 2026, with valuations extended, the margin for error has narrowed. However, while analysts are very optimistic for this year, the case for another strong year leans heavily on historical patterns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場週期再次成為投資敍事的中心，隨着我們邁向 2026 年。樂觀情緒似曾相識，因為 2025 年的盈利表現良好，經濟避免了衰退，大型科技公司推動了指數上漲。然而，這些勝利已經反映在價格中。隨着我們進入 2026 年，估值已被拉高，錯誤的餘地變得狹窄。然而，儘管分析師對今年非常樂觀，但另一個強勁年份的理由在很大程度上依賴於歷史模式。</p>
</div><p>Let’s start with the Presidential Cycle. Market cycles tied to the presidential calendar suggest the second year of a new administration is often slower. Since 1948, years three and four of a presidential term have yielded the most substantial returns, while year two, or the post-election year, has shown weaker performance, with modest gains and lower win rates. The data is shown below, and while 2025 traded above historical norms, 2026 may not be as fortunate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>讓我們從總統週期開始。與總統日曆相關的市場週期表明，新政府的第二年通常較為緩慢。自 1948 年以來，總統任期的第三年和第四年帶來了最顯著的回報，而第二年，即選舉後的年份，表現較弱，收益温和且勝率較低。數據如下所示，儘管 2025 年的交易高於歷史標準，但 2026 年可能不會如此幸運。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
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</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-1024x831.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-1024x831.png"/></p>
<p>Since 1871, markets have gained in 30 of those years, with losses in only 18, resulting in a win rate of approximately 62%. While better than a “coin toss,” it falls well short of the win rate in years three and four. Another potential headwind for markets in 2026 is the midterm elections, which could potentially result in a change of control in the House or Senate, leading to increased gridlock in Washington.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 1871 年以來，市場在其中 30 年中獲得了收益，僅在 18 年中出現虧損，勝率約為 62%。雖然比 “拋硬幣” 要好，但遠低於第三年和第四年的勝率。2026 年市場的另一個潛在阻力是中期選舉，這可能導致眾議院或參議院控制權的變化，從而導致華盛頓的僵局加劇。</p>
</div><p>READ MORE…</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>閲讀更多…</p>
</div><h3><strong>Tweet of the Day</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>今日推文</strong></h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/grondhog-day.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/grondhog-day.png"/></p>
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</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>The Market Cycles Potentially Driving 2026 Returns</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可能推動 2026 年回報的市場週期</p>
</div><p>Warsh To Head The Fed</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Warsh 將擔任美聯儲主席</p>
</div><p>Meta And Microsoft: Great Earnings But Different Results</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Meta 和 Microsoft：優秀的盈利表現但結果不同</p>
</div>

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