<p>比特幣在週一跌至年初至今的低點 74,500 美元，這一走勢使其峯值下跌了約 38%。市場反應劇烈，交易者感受到壓力，因為大資金的流出加速。</p>
<p><strong>資金流動與市場情緒</strong></p>
<p>根據報道，全球加密貨幣交易所交易產品上週出現大量贖回。美國大型現貨 ETF 引領了拋售，這使得整體資金流動進入深度負值區域。</p>
<p>根據 Bitwise 的每週加密市場指南報告，比特幣近期的下跌使其兩年滾動的 MVRV z-score 降至歷史最低水平，這一水平與低估相關，暗示該資產處於拋售狀態。</p>
<p>情緒指標大幅下跌。報告指出，兩年滾動的 MVRV z-score——一種比較市場價格與持有者平均成本基礎的指標，經過波動性調整——達到了歷史最低水平。這種數字表明廣泛的拋售，許多投資者現在將價格視為困境。</p>
<p><strong>現貨市場的購買興趣</strong></p>
<p>在較短的時間框架內，出現了購買的跡象。日線相對強弱指數（RSI）跌入 20 以下。這一水平通常會伴隨快速反彈。</p>
<p>在 Binance 和 Coinbase 等主要交易平台上的現貨交易量數據顯示，隨着比特幣反彈至約 79,420 美元，出現了淨積極買入。</p>
<p>未平倉合約沒有激增。資金利率保持負值。簡單來説：人們在現貨市場上買入，而不是大量進入槓桿多頭，這減少了強制平倉的級聯風險，從而使市場走勢更加平穩。</p>
<p>投降與清算</p>
<p>報告稱，上週多頭頭寸遭到重創，衍生品市場記錄了近 20 億美元的比特幣多頭清算。這種痛苦可以為新進入者清理場地。</p>
<p>與此同時，數十億美元的空頭頭寸聚集在更高的價格水平附近，約在 85,000 美元，如果比特幣上漲，這些空頭可能會被擊中。空頭回補可能為反彈提供動力。市場結構現在呈現出價格背後強烈的賣壓和前方真實的買入。支撐可能會在哪裏保持</p>
<p>根據報告，購買興趣與非常低的估值指標結合，可能會形成不對稱交易。這意味着潛在的上行空間可能大於短期的下行風險，至少對於願意接受波動的交易者而言。</p>
<p>歷史上，上週 RSI 區域的下跌通常會導致大約 10% 的反彈，自 2023 年 8 月以來大多數情況下如此，儘管結果各異，且沒有任何保證。一個安靜但真實的結論</p>
<p>機構資金流動依然謹慎。像 Grayscale Bitcoin Trust 和 iShares Bitcoin Trust 這樣的主要產品出現了大規模的資金流出，表明一些大型持有者已退縮。</p>
<p>然而，鏈上和現貨交易量信號暗示，尋找便宜貨的行為已經開始。短期內的走勢可能會顛簸。希望獲得市場敞口的交易者需要權衡低估值讀數和購買的局部情況，以及如果情緒再次惡化，進一步疲軟的非常現實的可能性。</p>
<p><em>圖片來自 Vecteezy</em> <em>, 圖表來自 TradingView</em></p>

<p>比特幣已跌至年初至今的低點 74,500 美元，較峯值下跌 38%，主要基金出現了顯著的資金流出。儘管加密貨幣 ETF 遭遇大量贖回，但在 Binance 和 Coinbase 等平台上出現了淨買入的跡象，顯示出現貨購買的活躍。市場情緒依然謹慎，創紀錄的低 MVRV z-score 暗示被低估。儘管多頭頭寸面臨重大平倉，但潛在的空頭回補可能會推動反彈。交易者必須應對波動性，並權衡風險與進一步下跌的可能性</p>

<p>Bitcoin slid to a year-to-date low of $74,500 on Monday, a move that wiped roughly 38% off its peak. Markets reacted sharply, and traders felt the pinch as flows out of big funds accelerated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特幣在週一跌至年初至今的低點 74,500 美元，這一走勢使其峯值下跌了約 38%。市場反應劇烈，交易者感受到壓力，因為大資金的流出加速。</p>
</div><p><strong>Fund Flows And Market Mood</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>資金流動與市場情緒</strong></p>
</div><p>According to reports, global crypto exchange-traded products saw heavy withdrawals last week. Big US spot ETFs led the selling, and that pushed overall fund flows into deep negative territory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據報道，全球加密貨幣交易所交易產品上週出現大量贖回。美國大型現貨 ETF 引領了拋售，這使得整體資金流動進入深度負值區域。</p>
</div><p>Based on Bitwise’s Weekly Crypto Market Compass report, Bitcoin’s recent drop pushed its two-year rolling MVRV z-score to a record low, a level tied to undervaluation and suggesting fire-sale conditions for the asset.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 Bitwise 的每週加密市場指南報告，比特幣近期的下跌使其兩年滾動的 MVRV z-score 降至歷史最低水平，這一水平與低估相關，暗示該資產處於拋售狀態。</p>
</div><p>Sentiment gauges fell hard. Reports note that a two-year rolling MVRV z-score — a measure comparing market price to the average cost basis of holders, adjusted for volatility — hit its lowest reading ever. That kind of number points to widespread selling and prices that many investors now view as distressed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>情緒指標大幅下跌。報告指出，兩年滾動的 MVRV z-score——一種比較市場價格與持有者平均成本基礎的指標，經過波動性調整——達到了歷史最低水平。這種數字表明廣泛的拋售，許多投資者現在將價格視為困境。</p>
</div><p><strong>Buying Interest On The Spot Market</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>現貨市場的購買興趣</strong></p>
</div><p>On shorter time frames, signs of buying have appeared. The daily RSI plunged into the low 20s. This is a level that has often been followed by quick rebounds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在較短的時間框架內，出現了購買的跡象。日線相對強弱指數（RSI）跌入 20 以下。這一水平通常會伴隨快速反彈。</p>
</div><p>Spot volume data on major venues such as Binance and Coinbase showed net aggressive buying as Bitcoin bounced back toward about $79,420.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Binance 和 Coinbase 等主要交易平台上的現貨交易量數據顯示，隨着比特幣反彈至約 79,420 美元，出現了淨積極買入。</p>
</div><p>Open interest did not spike. Funding rates stayed negative. In plain terms: people were buying on the spot market rather than piling into leveraged long bets, which reduces the chance of a cascade of forced liquidations that can make moves messier.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>未平倉合約沒有激增。資金利率保持負值。簡單來説：人們在現貨市場上買入，而不是大量進入槓桿多頭，這減少了強制平倉的級聯風險，從而使市場走勢更加平穩。</p>
</div><p>Capitulation And Liquidations</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投降與清算</p>
</div><p>Reports say long positions were crushed last week, with close to 2 billion in BTC long liquidations recorded across derivatives markets. That pain can clear the field for fresh entrants.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>報告稱，上週多頭頭寸遭到重創，衍生品市場記錄了近 20 億美元的比特幣多頭清算。這種痛苦可以為新進入者清理場地。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, there are multiple billions of dollars of short positions clustered near higher price levels, around $85,000, that could be hit if Bitcoin climbs. Short-covering could add fuel to a bounce. Market structure now offers a mix of strong selling behind prices and real buying in front of them. Where Support Might Hold</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，數十億美元的空頭頭寸聚集在更高的價格水平附近，約在 85,000 美元，如果比特幣上漲，這些空頭可能會被擊中。空頭回補可能為反彈提供動力。市場結構現在呈現出價格背後強烈的賣壓和前方真實的買入。支撐可能會在哪裏保持</p>
</div><p>Based on reports, buying interest combined with very low valuation metrics could create an asymmetric trade. That means the potential upside may be larger than the near-term downside, at least for traders willing to accept volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據報告，購買興趣與非常低的估值指標結合，可能會形成不對稱交易。這意味着潛在的上行空間可能大於短期的下行風險，至少對於願意接受波動的交易者而言。</p>
</div><p>Historically, dips into the RSI zone seen last week have led to roughly 10% rebounds most of the time since August 2023, although outcomes vary and nothing is guaranteed.A Quiet But Real Conclusion</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歷史上，上週 RSI 區域的下跌通常會導致大約 10% 的反彈，自 2023 年 8 月以來大多數情況下如此，儘管結果各異，且沒有任何保證。一個安靜但真實的結論</p>
</div><p>Institutional flows remain cautious. Major products such as the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust and the iShares Bitcoin Trust posted sizable outflows, signaling that some big holders stepped back.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>機構資金流動依然謹慎。像 Grayscale Bitcoin Trust 和 iShares Bitcoin Trust 這樣的主要產品出現了大規模的資金流出，表明一些大型持有者已退縮。</p>
</div><p>Yet, on-chain and spot-volume signals hint that bargain hunting has started. The near-term path will probably be bumpy. Traders who want exposure will need to weigh the low valuation readings and pockets of buying against the very real possibility of further weakness if sentiment deteriorates again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，鏈上和現貨交易量信號暗示，尋找便宜貨的行為已經開始。短期內的走勢可能會顛簸。希望獲得市場敞口的交易者需要權衡低估值讀數和購買的局部情況，以及如果情緒再次惡化，進一步疲軟的非常現實的可能性。</p>
</div><p><em>Featured image from Vecteezy</em> <em>, chart from TradingView</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>圖片來自 Vecteezy</em> <em>, 圖表來自 TradingView</em></p>
</div>

Bitcoin Hits Year-To-Date Low Amid Heavy Outflows, Signs Of Spot Buying Emerge

- 比特幣在週一跌至 $74,500，年初至今低點，累計下跌約 38%。
- 全球加密貨幣 ETF 上週出現大額提款，市場情緒大幅下降。
- 儘管有悲觀情緒，短期內顯示出買入興趣，可能促成反彈。

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比特幣在大量資金流出情況下達到年度低點，現貨購買的跡象開始顯現