<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2016/06/05/22/47/abstract-1438382__340.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2016/06/05/22/47/abstract-1438382__340.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>圖片來源：Pixabay</em></p>
<p>股票市場已經處於泡沫狀態有一段時間了，這並不是什麼秘密。問題是，它何時會破裂？對於那些堅定的買入持有者來説，這可能無關緊要。但對於我們其他想要保護過去三年多所獲得收益的人來説，這非常重要。</p>
<p>我認為每個投資政策聲明（書面的投資計劃）都應該包括一個名為 “計劃 B” 的部分，投資者在其中概述當牛市開始回落時將採取的步驟。你如何知道何時是時候？有許多指標需要關注，當這些指標開始一致時，就該採取一些防禦措施了。</p>
<p>這可能是簡單地增加現金配置，或者複雜地用衍生品對沖整個投資組合。我更傾向於簡單的方法，但你如何進行防禦完全取決於你。所以，讓我們深入探討這些泡沫破裂的指標，並注意它們現在告訴我們的信息。</p>
<p><strong>自滿</strong></p>
<p>當投資者變得自滿時，通常意味着美好的時光即將結束。這正是我們今天所處的情況。曾經被描述為對人工智能基礎設施建設的投資者樂觀情緒，現在已經演變為投資者的過度自信。周圍有許多跡象，讓我們逐一分析。</p>
<p><strong>狹窄的交易區間</strong></p>
<p>這張圖表顯示了標準普爾 500 指數上升動能的減緩。在去年的四月下跌後，市場迅速恢復。但自九月以來，市場一直在大約 5% 的狹窄區間內交易。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.zeninvestor.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Narrowing-trading-range.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.zeninvestor.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Narrowing-trading-range.png"/></p>
<p><strong>新高增量減少</strong></p>
<p>這張圖表顯示了標準普爾 500 指數新高增量的縮小。在強勁的牛市中，你會期望這些新高超過舊高 0.50% 或更多。但最近的新高增量卻小得多。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.zeninvestor.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/New-High-increments.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.zeninvestor.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/New-High-increments.png"/></p>
<p><strong>看跌/看漲比率</strong></p>
<p>在牛市中，樂觀的投資者購買的看漲期權通常多於看跌期權。這使得比率保持在 1 以下。但是，當比率達到極低水平時，表明投資者不再對對沖下行風險感興趣。</p>
<p>當前比率為 <strong>0.58</strong>。長期中位數比率為 <strong>0.70</strong>。這是投資者過度自信的經典跡象。</p>
<p><strong>市場下跌後的快速反彈</strong></p>
<p>在正常的上升趨勢市場中，我們會期望看到買家進場 “買入回調”。然而，今天我們看到的是 “買入回調” 的極端表現。經典的例子是 2020 年 Covid 崩盤後的快速反彈。從那時起，投資者迅速買入回調，以防止其轉變為修正。</p>
<p>有一些例外，比如 2022 年的熊市和 2025 年四月的下跌。但除此之外，我們沒有看到超過 5% 的回調。這裏有一張圖表顯示了過去 12 個月的回調和反彈。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.zeninvestor.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Drawdown-chart.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.zeninvestor.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Drawdown-chart.png"/></p>
<p><strong>債市警告</strong></p>
<p>今天普遍認為國債利率將走低。但事實並非如此。例如，10 年期國債的利率自去年十月底以來一直在緩慢上升。請參見下面的圖表。</p>
<p>債市通常在股市之前感知到麻煩，忽視債市信號是自滿的表現。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.zeninvestor.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/10yr-Treasury-rate-chart.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.zeninvestor.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/10yr-Treasury-rate-chart.png"/></p>
<p><strong>FOMO（錯失恐懼症）</strong></p>
<p>在牛市中，投資者可能會感到投資不足，並被對錯失他人收益的恐懼所壓倒。這導致了羊羣行為，投資者無論市場多麼高估，都會湧入擁擠的交易（例如人工智能）。</p>
<p>下面的圖表顯示了當羊羣行為佔據主導地位時，股票可能會出現的拋物線式上漲。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.zeninvestor.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SNDK-parabolic-rise.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.zeninvestor.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SNDK-parabolic-rise.png"/></p>
<p><strong>忽視宏觀信號</strong></p>
<p>許多關於經濟狀況的報告好於預期。普遍認為我們將避免今年的衰退，GDP 增長將在年底開始回升。</p>
<p>但有一些指標在講述不同的故事。例如，失業率正在上升，工作增長顯著放緩。隨着人工智能代理接管許多由薪資員工執行的常規任務，公司正在削減員工。</p>
<p>根據我幾周前與一位首席信息官的對話，他告訴我，如果他完全實施人工智能來為公司編寫代碼，他可以裁掉 50% 的員工。</p>
<p><strong>國債熊市陡峭化</strong></p>
<p>在正常的上升趨勢市場中，收益率曲線保持完整，短期和長期利率共同移動，保持期限風險。但當長期利率上升速度快於短期利率時，債券交易員稱之為 “熊市陡峭化”。這是對經濟和股市的看跌信號。</p>
<p><strong>底線</strong></p>
<p>如果你單獨看這些指標，沒有必要在它們開始發出麻煩信號時採取防禦措施。但當大多數這些指標都在閃爍警告時，採取措施保護自己免受可能演變為重大市場下跌的風險是明智的。</p>
<p>我並不預測近期會出現熊市。事實上，我的熊市計量經濟模型顯示，我們在接下來的 6 個月內只有 27% 的機會會出現熊市。但我呼籲比正常情況下更加謹慎，以抵消自 2023 年以來支撐市場的極端樂觀情緒。</p>
<p>自滿情緒充斥我們周圍，這使我們容易受到下行風險的影響。繼續持有多頭頭寸，因為泡沫通常會持續比大多數人想象的更久。但要保持一些額外的現金（我現在有 10% 的現金）。並關注我在本文中討論的指標。如果它們變得更糟，你可能需要對你的投資組合進行一些去風險操作。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>對市場和經濟的思考</p>
<p>一分鐘市場報告 - 6 月 8 日，星期日</p>
<p>一分鐘市場報告 - 6 月 1 日，星期日</p>

3 倍做多標普 500 ETF - ProShares

美國大盤成長股 ETF - Charles Schwab

美國小盤價值股 ETF - Vanguard

<p>目前股市處於泡沫狀態，引發了人們對何時會破裂的擔憂。建議投資者在投資政策聲明中準備 “計劃 B” 以保護收益。潛在下跌的關鍵指標包括投資者的自滿情緒、標普 500 指數的狹窄交易區間、新高增量的減少、低的看跌/看漲比率顯示出過度自信、快速反彈的行情、債券市場的警告、投資者的 FOMO（錯失恐懼症）以及忽視宏觀經濟信號。這些因素表明，市場顯示出不穩定的跡象，因此需要保持謹慎</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2016/06/05/22/47/abstract-1438382__340.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2016/06/05/22/47/abstract-1438382__340.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Pixabay</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>圖片來源：Pixabay</em></p>
</div><p>It's no secret that the stock market has been in a bubble for quite some time now. The question is, when will it burst? For you died-in-the-wool buy &amp; holders, it shouldn't matter. But for the rest of us who want to preserve what we've gained over the last 3+ years, it matters a lot.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股票市場已經處於泡沫狀態有一段時間了，這並不是什麼秘密。問題是，它何時會破裂？對於那些堅定的買入持有者來説，這可能無關緊要。但對於我們其他想要保護過去三年多所獲得收益的人來説，這非常重要。</p>
</div><p>I believe that every Investment Policy Statement (a written investment plan) should include a section called &#34;Plan B,&#34; where the investor outlines what steps they will take when the bull market begins to roll over. How will you know when it's time? There are a number of indicators to watch, and when these indicators start to line up, it's time to play a little defense.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我認為每個投資政策聲明（書面的投資計劃）都應該包括一個名為 “計劃 B” 的部分，投資者在其中概述當牛市開始回落時將採取的步驟。你如何知道何時是時候？有許多指標需要關注，當這些指標開始一致時，就該採取一些防禦措施了。</p>
</div><p>That could be something as simple as increasing your cash allocation, or as complex as hedging your entire portfolio with derivatives. I prefer the simple way, but how you play defense is entirely up to you. So, let's dig into these bubble-bursting indicators and take note of what they are telling us now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這可能是簡單地增加現金配置，或者複雜地用衍生品對沖整個投資組合。我更傾向於簡單的方法，但你如何進行防禦完全取決於你。所以，讓我們深入探討這些泡沫破裂的指標，並注意它們現在告訴我們的信息。</p>
</div><p><strong>Complacency</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>自滿</strong></p>
</div><p>When investors become complacent, it usually means that the good times are about to come to an end. This is the situation we are in today. What was once described as investor optimism about the AI infrastructure build has now morphed into investor overconfidence. There are signs all around us, so let's go through them one-by-one.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當投資者變得自滿時，通常意味着美好的時光即將結束。這正是我們今天所處的情況。曾經被描述為對人工智能基礎設施建設的投資者樂觀情緒，現在已經演變為投資者的過度自信。周圍有許多跡象，讓我們逐一分析。</p>
</div><p><strong>Narrow trading range</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>狹窄的交易區間</strong></p>
</div><p>This chart shows the deceleration of upward momentum in the S&amp;P 500. After the April swoon last year, the market recovered quickly. But ever since September, the market has been trading in a narrow range of about 5%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這張圖表顯示了標準普爾 500 指數上升動能的減緩。在去年的四月下跌後，市場迅速恢復。但自九月以來，市場一直在大約 5% 的狹窄區間內交易。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.zeninvestor.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Narrowing-trading-range.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.zeninvestor.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Narrowing-trading-range.png"/></p>
<p><strong>Diminishing new high increments</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>新高增量減少</strong></p>
</div><p>This chart shows the shrinking of incremental new highs in the S&amp;P 500. In a strong bull market, you would expect these hew highs to surpass the old highs by 0.50% or more. But the most recent new highs have seen much smaller increments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這張圖表顯示了標準普爾 500 指數新高增量的縮小。在強勁的牛市中，你會期望這些新高超過舊高 0.50% 或更多。但最近的新高增量卻小得多。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.zeninvestor.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/New-High-increments.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.zeninvestor.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/New-High-increments.png"/></p>
<p><strong>Put/Call Ratio</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>看跌/看漲比率</strong></p>
</div><p>In a bull market, optimistic investors buy more calls than puts. That keeps the ratio below 1. But, when the ratio reaches an extremely low level, it is a sign that investors are no longer interested in hedging the downside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在牛市中，樂觀的投資者購買的看漲期權通常多於看跌期權。這使得比率保持在 1 以下。但是，當比率達到極低水平時，表明投資者不再對對沖下行風險感興趣。</p>
</div><p>The current ratio stands at <strong>0.58</strong>. The long term median ratio is <strong>0.70</strong>. This is a classic sign of investor overconfidence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當前比率為 <strong>0.58</strong>。長期中位數比率為 <strong>0.70</strong>。這是投資者過度自信的經典跡象。</p>
</div><p><strong>Rapid snap-back rallies after market declines</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>市場下跌後的快速反彈</strong></p>
</div><p>In a normal, upward-trending market, we would expect to see buyers coming in to &#34;buy the dips.&#34; What we're seeing today, though, is dip-buying on steroids. The classic example of this was the rapid snap-back after the Covid crash in 2020. Since then, investors have been buying the dips quickly, before they can turn into corrections.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在正常的上升趨勢市場中，我們會期望看到買家進場 “買入回調”。然而，今天我們看到的是 “買入回調” 的極端表現。經典的例子是 2020 年 Covid 崩盤後的快速反彈。從那時起，投資者迅速買入回調，以防止其轉變為修正。</p>
</div><p>There are exceptions, like the bear market in 2022 and the April swoon in 2025. But, aside from these, we don't see many dips of more than 5%. Here's a chart that shows the dips and snap-backs over the past 12 months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有一些例外，比如 2022 年的熊市和 2025 年四月的下跌。但除此之外，我們沒有看到超過 5% 的回調。這裏有一張圖表顯示了過去 12 個月的回調和反彈。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.zeninvestor.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Drawdown-chart.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.zeninvestor.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Drawdown-chart.png"/></p>
<p><strong>Bond market warnings</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>債市警告</strong></p>
</div><p>There is a widespread belief today that Treasury rates are headed lower. But this is not what's happening. For example, the rate on the 10yr Treasury bond has been inching higher since the end of October of last year. See the chart below.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天普遍認為國債利率將走低。但事實並非如此。例如，10 年期國債的利率自去年十月底以來一直在緩慢上升。請參見下面的圖表。</p>
</div><p>The bond market usually senses trouble before the equity market does, and ignoring the bond market signals is a sign of complacency.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>債市通常在股市之前感知到麻煩，忽視債市信號是自滿的表現。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.zeninvestor.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/10yr-Treasury-rate-chart.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.zeninvestor.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/10yr-Treasury-rate-chart.png"/></p>
<p><strong>FOMO (Fear of missing out)</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>FOMO（錯失恐懼症）</strong></p>
</div><p>In a bull market, investors can reach a point where they feel under-invested and they can be overcome by a fear of missing out on the gains that others are making, This leads to herding behavior, where investors pile into crowded trades (like AI for example) regardless of how overvalued the market may be.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在牛市中，投資者可能會感到投資不足，並被對錯失他人收益的恐懼所壓倒。這導致了羊羣行為，投資者無論市場多麼高估，都會湧入擁擠的交易（例如人工智能）。</p>
</div><p>The chart below shows what can happen when herding behavior takes over and sends a stock into a parabolic move higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下面的圖表顯示了當羊羣行為佔據主導地位時，股票可能會出現的拋物線式上漲。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.zeninvestor.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SNDK-parabolic-rise.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.zeninvestor.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SNDK-parabolic-rise.png"/></p>
<p><strong>Ignoring Macro signals</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>忽視宏觀信號</strong></p>
</div><p>Many reports on the state of the economy are coming in better than expected. It's widely believed that we will avoid a recession this year, and GDP growth will start to pick up towards the end of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>許多關於經濟狀況的報告好於預期。普遍認為我們將避免今年的衰退，GDP 增長將在年底開始回升。</p>
</div><p>But there are some indicators that are telling a different story, For example, the unemployment rate is ticking higher and job growth has slowed significantly. Companies are slashing their workforce as AI agents take over many of the routine tasks that were performed by salaried workers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但有一些指標在講述不同的故事。例如，失業率正在上升，工作增長顯著放緩。隨着人工智能代理接管許多由薪資員工執行的常規任務，公司正在削減員工。</p>
</div><p>Anecdotally, I spoke with a Chief Information Officer a couple of weeks ago, and he told me that he could lay off 50% of his staff if he fully implemented AI to write code for the company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據我幾周前與一位首席信息官的對話，他告訴我，如果他完全實施人工智能來為公司編寫代碼，他可以裁掉 50% 的員工。</p>
</div><p><strong>Treasury Bond Bear Steepening</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>國債熊市陡峭化</strong></p>
</div><p>In a normal, upward-trending market, the yield curve remains intact, with short and long rates moving together and preserving term risk. But when long term rates are rising faster than short term rates, it's what bond traders call a &#34;Bear steepening.&#34; This is a bearish signal for the economy, and for the stock market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在正常的上升趨勢市場中，收益率曲線保持完整，短期和長期利率共同移動，保持期限風險。但當長期利率上升速度快於短期利率時，債券交易員稱之為 “熊市陡峭化”。這是對經濟和股市的看跌信號。</p>
</div><p><strong>The Bottom Line</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>底線</strong></p>
</div><p>if you look at any of these indicators in isolation, there is no need to play defense when they start to signal trouble. But when the preponderance of these indicators are flashing warnings, it's only prudent to take steps - however small - to protect against what could turn into a major market decline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你單獨看這些指標，沒有必要在它們開始發出麻煩信號時採取防禦措施。但當大多數這些指標都在閃爍警告時，採取措施保護自己免受可能演變為重大市場下跌的風險是明智的。</p>
</div><p>I am not calling for a bear market in the immediate future. In fact, my bear market econometric model says we only have a 27% chance that a bear market will begin sometime within the next 6 months. But, I am calling for more caution than normal, to counteract the extreme bullishness that has kept this market going since 2023.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我並不預測近期會出現熊市。事實上，我的熊市計量經濟模型顯示，我們在接下來的 6 個月內只有 27% 的機會會出現熊市。但我呼籲比正常情況下更加謹慎，以抵消自 2023 年以來支撐市場的極端樂觀情緒。</p>
</div><p>Complacency is all around us, and that makes us vulnerable to downside risk. Stay long, because bubbles usually last longer that most people would think. But keep some extra cash on hand (I have 10% in cash right now). And keep an eye on the indicators I discussed in this article. If they get even worse, you might want to do a little de-risking of your portfolio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自滿情緒充斥我們周圍，這使我們容易受到下行風險的影響。繼續持有多頭頭寸，因為泡沫通常會持續比大多數人想象的更久。但要保持一些額外的現金（我現在有 10% 的現金）。並關注我在本文中討論的指標。如果它們變得更糟，你可能需要對你的投資組合進行一些去風險操作。</p>
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<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>Thoughts On The Market And The Economy</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對市場和經濟的思考</p>
</div><p>The One-Minute Market Report - Sunday, June 8</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一分鐘市場報告 - 6 月 8 日，星期日</p>
</div><p>The One-Minute Market Report - Sunday, June 1</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一分鐘市場報告 - 6 月 1 日，星期日</p>
</div>

The Stock Market Bubble Is About To Burst

- 目前股市已處於泡沫狀態，投資者需謹慎應對。  
- 觀察到投資者過於自信，市場人士對風險忽視增加。  
- 提倡在投資策略中加入 “計劃 B”，以應對可能的市場下滑。

股市泡沫是否即將破裂