<p>比特幣 [BTC] 目前正處於近年來最不透明的交易階段之一。價格走勢一再無視持續反彈的預期。</p>
<p>從最高點的 126,000 美元，BTC 下跌了 48,000 美元至 78,000 美元，這一變動反映出市場情緒的極度悲觀。</p>
<p>儘管如此，現貨投資者仍然是短期和長期市場方向最可靠的指標之一，特別是在情緒開始轉變的時期。</p>
<h2><strong>現貨市場疲軟持續</strong></h2>
<p>比特幣現在已經連續五個月記錄負的現貨淨流出，沒有出現有意義的看漲中斷。這種持續的壓力反映了資本的廣泛收縮，因為投資者穩步減少風險敞口。</p>
<p>自 10 月 10 日開始的下跌以來，現貨交易量已經崩潰。Binance 的數據進一步證實了這一趨勢；10 月份的現貨交易量接近 2000 億美元，但此後已降至約 1040 億美元。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/IMG_0611.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/IMG_0611.jpeg"/></p>
<p>來源：Alphractal。</p>
<p>現貨交易者是市場動量的關鍵來源。當他們的活動急劇下降時，這表明信心減弱和需求低迷，這種情況往往對價格產生重大壓力。</p>
<p>資本外流在穩定幣市場中也顯而易見。穩定幣的市值已下降約 100 億美元，表明投資者不願意將資金停留在鏈上。</p>
<p>穩定幣通常在波動時期充當緩衝，允許資本在條件穩定後重新進入。當前的下跌表明投資者要麼在其他地方重新配置，要麼完全退出市場。</p>
<p>衍生品市場也反映了這種撤退。10 月的崩盤觸發了未平倉合約的急劇收縮，單日下降約 80 億美元，相當於當時約 70,000 個 BTC。這突顯了槓桿和風險偏好的廣泛降低。</p>
<h2><strong>現貨活動能否推動短期反彈？</strong></h2>
<p>儘管資本收縮和動量減弱，現貨市場數據提供了一個狹窄但顯著的潛在短期反彈基礎。</p>
<p>最近的指標指向比特幣可能的短期上行走勢。現貨交易所的淨流入流出，衡量買方與賣方活動的差異，支持這一觀點。</p>
<p>從 1 月 19 日到 1 月 26 日，儘管價格壓力持續，買家仍然積累了約 21 億美元的比特幣。這種穩定的積累提供了需求可能悄然迴歸的早期跡象。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/IMG_0610-scaled.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/IMG_0610-scaled.png"/></p>
<p>來源：Alphractal</p>
<p>額外的確認來自現貨買方 CVD（累積成交量差）。在過去三個月中，該指標衡量激進現貨買入與賣出的差異，已轉為正值。</p>
<p>這一變化表明，儘管比特幣自 12 月以來表現疲弱，買家在現貨交易量中佔據了更大份額。如果這一趨勢持續，情緒可能逐漸傾向於他們，鋪平了在信心改善後至少短期反彈的道路。</p>
<h2><strong>為何信號仍然脆弱</strong></h2>
<p>然而，這些信號仍不足以支持持續的復甦。</p>
<p>儘管最近的現貨活動指向可能促成反彈的條件，但整體參與仍然稀薄。CryptoQuant 的零售交易頻率數據顯示，市場處於中性區域，買方和賣方均未表現出明顯的主導地位。</p>
<p>這種中立性意味着交易活動過於有限，無法對價格方向產生實質性影響。歷史上，當現貨零售活動圖表上出現綠色點時，通常會出現更強的反彈信號，標誌着在下跌後重新出現的購買興趣。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/IMG_0609-scaled.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/IMG_0609-scaled.png"/></p>
<p>來源：Alphractal</p>
<p>過去的實例表明，這種形態通常會在上漲走勢之前出現。雖然不是明確的信號，但它仍然是跟蹤現貨市場強度是否足以挑戰當前看跌趨勢的有用框架。</p>
<hr/>
<p>最終思考</p>
<ul>
<li><em>自 2025 年 10 月崩盤以來，現貨市場的活動顯著減少，交易量幾乎減半，降至約 1040 億美元。</em></li>
<li><em>在主導的看跌敍事之下，短期現貨投資者可能正在悄然塑造反彈的條件。</em></li>
</ul>

<p>比特幣（BTC）目前正經歷一個脆弱的復甦階段，交易價格約為 78,000 美元，較其峯值 126,000 美元大幅下跌。市場情緒依然悲觀，連續五個月出現負的現貨淨流入，交易量從 2000 億美元下降至 1040 億美元。儘管如此，近期買家累計購買了價值 21 億美元的比特幣，顯示出短期復甦的潛在跡象。然而，整體市場參與度較低，這表明任何反彈可能都是有限且脆弱的</p>

<p>Bitcoin [BTC] is currently trading in one of its most opaque phases in recent years. Price action has repeatedly invalidated expectations of a sustained rally.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特幣 [BTC] 目前正處於近年來最不透明的交易階段之一。價格走勢一再無視持續反彈的預期。</p>
</div><p>From its peak of $126,000, BTC declined by $48,000 to $78,000, a move that reflects just how deeply bearish sentiment has taken hold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從最高點的 126,000 美元，BTC 下跌了 48,000 美元至 78,000 美元，這一變動反映出市場情緒的極度悲觀。</p>
</div><p>Even so, spot investors remain one of the most reliable indicators of both short- and long-term market direction, particularly during periods when sentiment begins to shift.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，現貨投資者仍然是短期和長期市場方向最可靠的指標之一，特別是在情緒開始轉變的時期。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Spot market weakness persists</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>現貨市場疲軟持續</strong></h2>
</div><p>BTChas now recorded five consecutive months of negative spot netflows, with no meaningful bullish interruption. This sustained pressure reflects a broader contraction in capital, as investors steadily reduce exposure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特幣現在已經連續五個月記錄負的現貨淨流出，沒有出現有意義的看漲中斷。這種持續的壓力反映了資本的廣泛收縮，因為投資者穩步減少風險敞口。</p>
</div><p>Spot trading volume has collapsed since the drawdown that began on the 10th of October. Binance data reinforces the trend; spot volume stood near $200 billion in October but has since fallen to about $104 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 10 月 10 日開始的下跌以來，現貨交易量已經崩潰。Binance 的數據進一步證實了這一趨勢；10 月份的現貨交易量接近 2000 億美元，但此後已降至約 1040 億美元。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/IMG_0611.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/IMG_0611.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Source: Alphractal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：Alphractal。</p>
</div><p>Spot traders are a key source of market momentum. When their activity declines sharply, it signals weakening conviction and subdued demand, conditions that tend to weigh heavily on price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現貨交易者是市場動量的關鍵來源。當他們的活動急劇下降時，這表明信心減弱和需求低迷，這種情況往往對價格產生重大壓力。</p>
</div><p>Capital outflows are also evident in stablecoin markets. Stablecoin capitalization has declined by approximately $10 billion, pointing to reduced investor willingness to keep funds parked on-chain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>資本外流在穩定幣市場中也顯而易見。穩定幣的市值已下降約 100 億美元，表明投資者不願意將資金停留在鏈上。</p>
</div><p>Stablecoins typically act as a buffer during volatile periods, allowing capital to re-enter once conditions stabilize. The current drawdown suggests investors are either reallocating elsewhere or exiting the market altogether.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>穩定幣通常在波動時期充當緩衝，允許資本在條件穩定後重新進入。當前的下跌表明投資者要麼在其他地方重新配置，要麼完全退出市場。</p>
</div><p>Derivatives markets have mirrored this retreat. The October crash triggered a sharp contraction in open interest, with a single-day decline of roughly $8 billion, equivalent to about 70,000 BTC at the time. This highlights a broad reduction in leverage and risk appetite.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>衍生品市場也反映了這種撤退。10 月的崩盤觸發了未平倉合約的急劇收縮，單日下降約 80 億美元，相當於當時約 70,000 個 BTC。這突顯了槓桿和風險偏好的廣泛降低。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Can spot activity fuel a short-term rebound?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>現貨活動能否推動短期反彈？</strong></h2>
</div><p>Despite shrinking capital and muted momentum, spot market data offers a narrow but notable basis for a potential short-term rebound.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管資本收縮和動量減弱，現貨市場數據提供了一個狹窄但顯著的潛在短期反彈基礎。</p>
</div><p>Recent indicators point to a potential short‑term upside move for Bitcoin. Spot exchange netflows, which measure inflows and outflows to gauge buyer versus seller activity, support this view.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近的指標指向比特幣可能的短期上行走勢。現貨交易所的淨流入流出，衡量買方與賣方活動的差異，支持這一觀點。</p>
</div><p>From January 19 to January 26, buyers accumulated approximately $2.1 billion worth of Bitcoin despite ongoing price pressure. This steady accumulation offers early signs that demand may be quietly returning.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從 1 月 19 日到 1 月 26 日，儘管價格壓力持續，買家仍然積累了約 21 億美元的比特幣。這種穩定的積累提供了需求可能悄然迴歸的早期跡象。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/IMG_0610-scaled.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/IMG_0610-scaled.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Alphractal</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：Alphractal</p>
</div><p>Additional confirmation comes from the Spot Taker CVD (cumulative volume delta). Over the past three months, the metric, which measures the difference between aggressive spot buying and selling, has turned positive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>額外的確認來自現貨買方 CVD（累積成交量差）。在過去三個月中，該指標衡量激進現貨買入與賣出的差異，已轉為正值。</p>
</div><p>This shift indicates that, despite Bitcoin’s weak performance since December, buyers have accounted for a larger share of spot volume. If this trend persists, sentiment could gradually tilt in their favor, setting the stage for at least a short-term rebound once confidence improves.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一變化表明，儘管比特幣自 12 月以來表現疲弱，買家在現貨交易量中佔據了更大份額。如果這一趨勢持續，情緒可能逐漸傾向於他們，鋪平了在信心改善後至少短期反彈的道路。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Why the signal remains fragile</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>為何信號仍然脆弱</strong></h2>
</div><p>Still, these signals remain insufficient to support a sustained recovery.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，這些信號仍不足以支持持續的復甦。</p>
</div><p>While recent spot activity points to conditions that could enable a rebound, overall participation remains thin. Retail trading frequency data from CryptoQuant indicates that the market is firmly in a neutral zone, with neither buyers nor sellers exerting clear dominance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管最近的現貨活動指向可能促成反彈的條件，但整體參與仍然稀薄。CryptoQuant 的零售交易頻率數據顯示，市場處於中性區域，買方和賣方均未表現出明顯的主導地位。</p>
</div><p>This neutrality implies that trading activity is too limited to influence price direction materially. Historically, stronger rebound signals emerge when a green dot appears on the spot retail activity chart, marking renewed buying interest after a drawdown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種中立性意味着交易活動過於有限，無法對價格方向產生實質性影響。歷史上，當現貨零售活動圖表上出現綠色點時，通常會出現更強的反彈信號，標誌着在下跌後重新出現的購買興趣。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/IMG_0609-scaled.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/IMG_0609-scaled.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Alphractal</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：Alphractal</p>
</div><p>Past instances show that such formations often precede upside moves. While not a definitive signal, it remains a useful framework for tracking whether spot market strength is building enough to challenge the prevailing bearish trend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>過去的實例表明，這種形態通常會在上漲走勢之前出現。雖然不是明確的信號，但它仍然是跟蹤現貨市場強度是否足以挑戰當前看跌趨勢的有用框架。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p>Final Thoughts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最終思考</p>
</div><ul>
<li><em>Since the October 2025 crash, activity in the spot market has thinned considerably, with trading volume sliding nearly in half to about $104 billion.</em></li>
<li><em>Beneath the dominant bearish narrative, short-term spot investors may be quietly shaping conditions for a rebound.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>自 2025 年 10 月崩盤以來，現貨市場的活動顯著減少，交易量幾乎減半，降至約 1040 億美元。</em></li>
<li><em>在主導的看跌敍事之下，短期現貨投資者可能正在悄然塑造反彈的條件。</em></li>
</ul>
</div>

比特幣：分析為何 BTC 的復甦幾率依然顯得脆弱