<p>（MaceNews）- 日本新聞媒體在 2 月 3 日至 2 月 5 日之間進行的民意調查於週四發佈，結果顯示保守派執政的自由民主黨在 2 月 8 日的眾議院選舉中將取得壓倒性勝利，該黨有望獲得比初步調查所示的更大勝利。</p>
<p>調查沒有説明選民為何選擇自由民主黨而非其他黨派，儘管執政黨捲入了金錢政治醜聞，許多立法者與有爭議的統一教有密切聯繫，該教會曾幫助自由民主黨候選人，以此作為滲透日本決策過程的手段。</p>
<p>《讀賣新聞》的民調顯示，自由民主黨有望超過 465 個眾議院席位中所需的 233 個席位的簡單多數，且該黨可能接近或超過 261 個席位的絕對多數。調查表明，主要反對派集團中道可能會失去約一半的 172 個席位。</p>
<p>根據同一項民調，自由民主黨與維新會的聯盟可能達到 310 個席位的三分之二超級多數，這樣可以在立法上推翻上議院的反對意見，並啓動提議憲法修正案的程序。</p>
<p>首相高市早苗在 1 月 19 日結束了數週的猜測，宣佈計劃於 1 月 23 日解散眾議院，並召開快選，開始 150 天的常規國會會議。</p>
<p>她將選舉日定在 2 月 8 日，給許多政治家（包括她的同事）準備的時間很少。反對派陣營仍然相對分散。曾短暫執政的最大反對黨與前自由民主黨合作的最後時刻婚姻，迄今未能獲得太多選民支持，可能是因為沒有足夠的時間傳達他們的競選承諾，包括應對日常必需品的通貨膨脹，這也是執政黨和反對黨共同設定的目標。</p>
<p>《每日新聞》的民調結果同樣指向自由民主黨的主導地位，表明該黨可能單獨贏得約 300 個席位。與維新會的聯盟，執政陣營可能獲得三分之二的多數。每日新聞的調查顯示，自由民主黨在 289 個單一選區中超過 60% 的選票，較 1 月 27 日正式啓動的選舉活動初期的 50% 有所上升。</p>
<p>在強大的眾議院中，執政黨在 243 個 “舒適多數” 下，可以讓其立法者擔任所有常務委員會的主席。261 個 “絕對多數” 還將使獲勝黨在每個委員會中佔據超過一半的席位。</p>
<p>每日新聞的民調還表明，新反對派集團中道（中間改革聯盟）在日本憲法民主黨和公明黨之間，可能會失去大量的合併席位。公明黨在 10 月結束了與自由民主黨的多年合作，批評執政黨在解決其政治資金醜聞的根本原因上反應過慢。</p>
<p>儘管執政集團表現強勁，但每日新聞指出，31% 的受訪者仍未決定在單一選區投票給誰，並補充説，在某些地區的投票行為可能在選舉日之前發生變化。但這仍低於 1 月 28 日至 29 日進行的前一次調查中 46% 的未決定比例。</p>
<p>《日經新聞》的民調同樣預測自由民主黨將取得決定性勝利。這家商業日報估計，該黨可能會從 1 月 23 日解散眾議院前的 198 個席位增加力量，甚至可能將聯盟推向接近 300 個席位。調查還顯示，中道面臨失去約一半的選舉前實力。</p>
<p>日本媒體的民調在計算反對派席位總數時存在差異，有些使用中道在 2 月 23 日眾議院解散前的 172 個席位，而其他則基於 2 月 27 日的官方選舉公報，計算排除退休立法者後的 167 個席位。</p>

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南方日經225

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華夏野村日經225ETF

<p>日本媒體的民調顯示，執政的自由民主黨（LDP）在即將於 2 月 8 日舉行的下院選舉中將取得壓倒性勝利，預計該黨可能獲得超過 300 個席位。主要反對派聯盟中道預計將失去約一半的席位。儘管自由民主黨面臨醜聞，但選民支持依然強勁，超過 60% 的單一選區傾向於執政黨。然而，31% 的受訪者仍未決定，表明在選舉前選民行為可能會發生變化</p>

<p>(MaceNews) - Japanese news media polls conducted between Feb. 3 and Feb. 5 and released Thursday point to a landslide victory for the conservative ruling Liberal Democratic Party in the Feb. 8 lower house election, with the party on track to secure a significantly larger win than indicated by initial surveys.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（MaceNews）- 日本新聞媒體在 2 月 3 日至 2 月 5 日之間進行的民意調查於週四發佈，結果顯示保守派執政的自由民主黨在 2 月 8 日的眾議院選舉中將取得壓倒性勝利，該黨有望獲得比初步調查所示的更大勝利。</p>
</div><p>None of the surveys said why voters are choosing the LDP over others while the ruling party has been embroiled in money politics scandals and many of its lawmakers have had close ties with the controversial Unification Church that helped LDP candidates in the past as a means of infiltrating Japan’s decision-making process.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>調查沒有説明選民為何選擇自由民主黨而非其他黨派，儘管執政黨捲入了金錢政治醜聞，許多立法者與有爭議的統一教有密切聯繫，該教會曾幫助自由民主黨候選人，以此作為滲透日本決策過程的手段。</p>
</div><p>A Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper poll shows the LDP poised to exceed the 233-seat threshold needed for a simple majority in the 465-seat House of Representatives, with the party potentially approaching or surpassing an absolute majority of 261 seats. The survey indicates the main opposition bloc, Chudo, could lose around half of the 172 seats it held before the snap election was called.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>《讀賣新聞》的民調顯示，自由民主黨有望超過 465 個眾議院席位中所需的 233 個席位的簡單多數，且該黨可能接近或超過 261 個席位的絕對多數。調查表明，主要反對派集團中道可能會失去約一半的 172 個席位。</p>
</div><p>According to the same poll, the LDP’s coalition with Ishin no Kai (Japan Innovation Party) could reach the two-thirds supermajority of 310 seats required to override upper house opposition on legislation and to initiate procedures for proposing constitutional amendments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據同一項民調，自由民主黨與維新會的聯盟可能達到 310 個席位的三分之二超級多數，這樣可以在立法上推翻上議院的反對意見，並啓動提議憲法修正案的程序。</p>
</div><p>Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi ended weeks of speculation on Jan. 19 by announcing her plan to call a snap election and dissolve the lower house on Jan. 23 at the start of the 150-day ordinary parliamentary session.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首相高市早苗在 1 月 19 日結束了數週的猜測，宣佈計劃於 1 月 23 日解散眾議院，並召開快選，開始 150 天的常規國會會議。</p>
</div><p>She set election day on Feb. 8, giving many politicians (including her colleagues) little time to prepare. The opposition camp remains largely fragmented. The last-minute pre-election marriage between the largest opposition party that once ruled Japan briefly and a former LDP partner has so far failed to garner much voter support, probably because it hasn’t had enough time to communicate their campaign pledges including fighting inflation in daily necessities, which is a common goal set by both the ruling and opposition parties.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>她將選舉日定在 2 月 8 日，給許多政治家（包括她的同事）準備的時間很少。反對派陣營仍然相對分散。曾短暫執政的最大反對黨與前自由民主黨合作的最後時刻婚姻，迄今未能獲得太多選民支持，可能是因為沒有足夠的時間傳達他們的競選承諾，包括應對日常必需品的通貨膨脹，這也是執政黨和反對黨共同設定的目標。</p>
</div><p>Results from a Mainichi Shimbun daily poll also point to a dominant outcome for the LDP, indicating the party could win around 300 seats on its own. With coalition partner Ishin, the ruling camp could secure a two-thirds majority. Mainichi’s survey indicates the LDP is leading in more than 60% of the 289 single-seat constituencies, up from just over 50% in its initial poll during the election campaign officially launched on Jan. 27.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>《每日新聞》的民調結果同樣指向自由民主黨的主導地位，表明該黨可能單獨贏得約 300 個席位。與維新會的聯盟，執政陣營可能獲得三分之二的多數。每日新聞的調查顯示，自由民主黨在 289 個單一選區中超過 60% 的選票，較 1 月 27 日正式啓動的選舉活動初期的 50% 有所上升。</p>
</div><p>In the powerful lower chamber of the Diet, at a 243 “comfortable majority,” the ruling party could have all the standing committees chaired by its lawmakers. A 261 “absolute majority” would also allow the winning party to dominate more than a half of the seats in each committee.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在強大的眾議院中，執政黨在 243 個 “舒適多數” 下，可以讓其立法者擔任所有常務委員會的主席。261 個 “絕對多數” 還將使獲勝黨在每個委員會中佔據超過一半的席位。</p>
</div><p>The Mainichi poll also indicated that the new opposition group Chudo (Centrist Reform Alliance) between the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and Komeito is likely to lose a substantial number of its combined seats. Komeito ended years of partnership with the LDP in October, criticizing the ruling party of being too slow to address the root cause of its political funding scandals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每日新聞的民調還表明，新反對派集團中道（中間改革聯盟）在日本憲法民主黨和公明黨之間，可能會失去大量的合併席位。公明黨在 10 月結束了與自由民主黨的多年合作，批評執政黨在解決其政治資金醜聞的根本原因上反應過慢。</p>
</div><p>Despite the strong showing for the ruling bloc, the Mainichi noted that 31% of respondents were still undecided for whom to vote in single-seat constituencies, adding that voting behavior in some districts could shift before election day. But that’s still down from 46% of the undecided in its previous survey conducted on Jan. 28-29</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管執政集團表現強勁，但每日新聞指出，31% 的受訪者仍未決定在單一選區投票給誰，並補充説，在某些地區的投票行為可能在選舉日之前發生變化。但這仍低於 1 月 28 日至 29 日進行的前一次調查中 46% 的未決定比例。</p>
</div><p>A poll by the Nikkei similarly projects a decisive victory for the LDP. The business daily estimates the party is likely to boost its strength from the 198 seats that it had held before the lower house was dissolved on Jan. 23 and that it could even push the coalition close to 300 seats. The survey also showed Chudo facing the loss of about half of its pre-election strength.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>《日經新聞》的民調同樣預測自由民主黨將取得決定性勝利。這家商業日報估計，該黨可能會從 1 月 23 日解散眾議院前的 198 個席位增加力量，甚至可能將聯盟推向接近 300 個席位。調查還顯示，中道面臨失去約一半的選舉前實力。</p>
</div><p>Japanese media polls differ in how they calculate opposition seat totals, with some using Chudo’s 172 seats held prior to the Feb. 23 dissolution of the lower house while others base estimates on the Feb. 27 issue of the official election bulletin counting 167 seats after excluding retiring lawmakers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本媒體的民調在計算反對派席位總數時存在差異，有些使用中道在 2 月 23 日眾議院解散前的 172 個席位，而其他則基於 2 月 27 日的官方選舉公報，計算排除退休立法者後的 167 個席位。</p>
</div>

日本新聞媒體的民調顯示：執政的保守派自民黨在 2 月 8 日的眾議院選舉中有望大獲全勝，而新的反對派中間派聯盟則處於落後狀態