<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2016/04/30/00/28/dollar-1362244_960_720.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2016/04/30/00/28/dollar-1362244_960_720.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>圖片來源：Pixabay</em></p>
<p><strong>美元本週在大多數 G10 貨幣中漲幅收窄。</strong> 澳元從今天早些時候創下的兩週低點反彈，是本週唯一對美元上漲的 G10 貨幣。澳大利亞儲備銀行本週早些時候加息，市場提前預期將再次加息。美元本週的漲幅似乎主要是技術性因素，因為從 1 月中旬到下旬的急劇損失正在修正。動量指標警告稱，反彈修正可能還有更多空間。</p>
<p><strong>美國 1 月就業報告原定今天發佈，但由於政府再次關門，推遲到下週。</strong> 加拿大今天發佈就業數據，但政策影響有限，因為加拿大央行預計將維持長時間的利率不變。美國 2-10 年期收益率曲線超過 70 個基點，為四年來最陡，備受關注。日本本週末將舉行投票，首相高市早苗的自民黨似乎將擴大支持。泰國本週末也將投票。</p>
<h3><strong>價格</strong></h3>
<p>G10</p>
<p>• <strong>歐元</strong> 昨日在 1.1800 美元附近波動，幾乎在 25 個點的範圍內。今天有價值 37 億歐元的期權將在此到期，昨日有 34 億歐元的期權也在此到期。歐元今天早些時候被拋售至兩週低點，接近 1.1765 美元，隨後反彈至接近 1.18 美元。動量指標警告稱，向下修正可能尚未完成。</p>
<p>• 美元昨日連續第五個交易日突破了對 <strong>日元</strong> 的前一交易日高點。美元接近 JPY157.35，為 1 月 23 日以來的最佳水平，且美國官員進行了利率檢查。美元幾乎跌破昨日低點（約 JPY156.65），隨後反彈至 JPY157，今天在此處有約 8.1 億美元的期權到期。上週末收於 JPY154.80。</p>
<p>• 英國央行的鴿派維持和首相斯塔默的新打擊使得 <strong>英鎊</strong> 首次在三個月內下跌超過一美分。英鎊對歐元的跌幅為自去年 8 月以來最大（約 0.75%）。英鎊超出了從 1 月 19 日低點（約 1.3330 美元）到上週高點（約 1.3870 美元）的上漲幅度的 61.8% 回撤目標，回撤目標位於約 1.3535 美元。今天被拋售至兩週低點，接近 1.3510 美元，隨後反彈至約 1.3580 美元。20 日移動平均線約為 1.3575 美元。短期風險延伸至 1.3600-20 美元，儘管動量指標剛剛轉向下行。</p>
<p>• 美元昨日首次在 <strong>加元</strong>1.3700 以上收盤，接近兩週以來的首次。這一水平對應於自上個月中旬以來的下跌的 50% 回撤。後續買盤將其推高至今天的 CAD1.3725。今天在 CAD1.3700 的期權接近 7 億美元到期。下一個回撤目標和 20 日移動平均線位於 1.3750-60 加元區域。然而，美元正在回落，並在歐洲早盤被拋售至略低於 CAD1.3680 的低點。昨日低點接近 CAD1.3655，突破該點將有助於穩定加元的走勢。</p>
<p>• <strong>澳元</strong> 昨日跌至三天低點，接近 0.6940 美元。它已完全回吐了週二加息後所獲得的漲幅。今天，它突破了週一的低點（約 0.6910 美元），並接近 0.6900 美元水平，那裏有近 30 億澳元的期權將在下週一和週二到期。澳元反彈至接近 0.6980 美元。昨日高點略高於 0.7005 美元。若收盤高於該水平，將提升技術面。</p>
<p>新興市場</p>
<p>• <strong>墨西哥比索</strong> 對 Banxico 昨日決定將隔夜目標利率維持在 7.0% 的反應微弱，似乎暗示將延長暫停。美元昨日收於 MXN17.5075，今天上漲至 MXN17.5660，隨後美元賣家出手，將美元推低至 MXN17.34。昨日低點略低於 MXN17.30。上週美元收於 MXN17.46。</p>
<p>• 中國人民銀行今天連續第二個交易日將美元的基準匯率上調，這是今年的第三次。今天的參考匯率設定為 <strong>CNY</strong> 6.9590，昨日為 CNY6.9570，上週為 CNY6.9678。離岸人民幣在狹窄範圍內波動，美元保持在近期低點附近。美元接近 CNH6.9370，上週收於 CNH6.9585。</p>
<p>• 印度儲備銀行維持利率不變，美元回升至週二大幅低開所形成的缺口。今天美元達到 <strong>INR</strong> 90.8550。上週收於 INR91.99。最近幾天在 INR90.00 附近形成了一個平台。</p>
<h3><strong>其他市場</strong></h3>
<p>• 昨日美國 <strong>股票</strong> 的急劇下跌對亞太市場造成了壓力。除了日本和印度，大型股市普遍下跌。歐洲的 Stoxx 600 指數，因科技股暴露較少，昨日下跌 1% 後上漲約 0.3%。美國指數期貨上漲 0.3%-0.6%。</p>
<p>• <strong>基準 10 年期收益率</strong> 今天大多下跌。日本 10 年期收益率下滑近 1 個基點，歐洲的收益率下跌 2-3 個基點。10 年期美國國債收益率有所上升，但仍低於 4.20%。本週下降約 8 個基點。</p>
<p>• 在亞洲初步跟隨賣盤後，<strong>黃金和白銀</strong> 反彈上漲。黃金被拋售至接近 4655 美元，現在回升至接近 4890 美元。白銀一度飆升至接近 64 美元，為自去年 12 月以來的低點，但隨後反彈，目前接近 75 美元。</p>
<p>• <strong>3 月 WTI</strong> 在約 62.30 美元和 64.60 美元之間整理，市場在等待關於美伊談判的消息。上週收於約 65.20 美元。</p>
<h3><strong>數據</strong></h3>
<p>• <strong>美國</strong> 原定於今天發佈 1 月份的就業報告，但政府停擺再次打亂了日程。這使得初步的 2 月份密歇根大學消費者調查成為今天唯一的經濟報告。儘管過去兩個月情緒有所改善，但情緒可能有所下滑，而通脹預期可能保持在 1 月份的水平：1 年期和 5-10 年期的預期分別為 4.0% 和 3.3%。</p>
<p>• <strong>加拿大</strong> 將提供其勞動力市場的月度更新。在 12 月份全職職位激增 51.4 千後，預計 1 月份難以重複這一情況。失業率預計保持在 6.8%。由於加拿大央行被認為將維持較長時間的利率不變，因此即使報告存在頭條風險，政策影響也微乎其微。</p>
<p>• 在 <strong>德國</strong> 昨天報告的 12 月份工廠訂單激增 7.8% 之後，德國意外報告工業產出下降 1.9%。這些訂單主要集中在國內客户，但今天報告的 12 月份貿易順差為 171 億歐元，超出預期，得益於出口增長 4%。</p>
<p>• <strong>日本</strong> 報告了令人失望的 12 月份家庭支出，同比下降了 2.6%。彭博社調查的中位數預測為下降 0.3%。日本將在週日舉行下院選舉，民調顯示自民黨有機會重新奪回多數席位。在過去，自民黨即使在政治上不必要的情況下也維持與公明黨的聯盟。我們懷疑這將是與其新聯盟夥伴日本創新黨的情況。</p>
<p>• <strong>泰國</strong> 將在週日舉行大選，政治氣候的分裂性質警告稱，組建下屆政府可能需要一些時間。還有關於憲法改革意願的是/否公投。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>歐洲央行和英格蘭銀行將維持現狀，而美元大多走強</p>
<p>週日的選舉前景對日元施加壓力</p>
<p>澳大利亞儲備銀行加息，並預計今年再加一次</p>

澳元 做多 - CurrencyShares

德銀美元指數 做多 - PowerShares

彭博美元指數 做多 - WisdomTree

<p>本週，美元對大多數 G10 貨幣有所走軟，只有澳元在澳大利亞儲備銀行加息後有所上漲。美元近期的漲幅似乎是技術性反彈，修正了 1 月份的損失。由於政府停擺，美國就業報告被推遲。歐元和英鎊面臨下行壓力，而加元則趨於穩定。墨西哥比索和印度盧比對中央銀行的決策反應有限。總體而言，美元的表現因各種經濟指標和即將舉行的日本和泰國選舉而顯得複雜</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2016/04/30/00/28/dollar-1362244_960_720.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2016/04/30/00/28/dollar-1362244_960_720.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Pixabay</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>圖片來源：Pixabay</em></p>
</div><p><strong>The US dollar is seeing this week’s gains pared against most of the G10 currencies today.</strong> The Australian dollar has recovered from a two-week low set earlier today and is the only G10 currency that has gained on the greenback this week. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates earlier this week and the market has brought forward its expectation for another hike. The dollar’s gains this week seemed to be largely technical in nature as the correction to the sharp losses from mid- to late January are retraced. The momentum indicators warn the upside correction may have more room to run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>美元本週在大多數 G10 貨幣中漲幅收窄。</strong> 澳元從今天早些時候創下的兩週低點反彈，是本週唯一對美元上漲的 G10 貨幣。澳大利亞儲備銀行本週早些時候加息，市場提前預期將再次加息。美元本週的漲幅似乎主要是技術性因素，因為從 1 月中旬到下旬的急劇損失正在修正。動量指標警告稱，反彈修正可能還有更多空間。</p>
</div><p><strong>US January jobs report was due today, but another government shutdown delays it until next week.</strong> Canada reports its jobs figures today, but the policy impact is minimal as the Bank of Canada seen on a long hold. The US 2-10-year yield curve is above 70 bp, the steepest in four years, and is drawing attention. Japan votes this weekend, and the Prime Minister Takaichi’s LDP looks set to expand its support. Thailand also votes this weekend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>美國 1 月就業報告原定今天發佈，但由於政府再次關門，推遲到下週。</strong> 加拿大今天發佈就業數據，但政策影響有限，因為加拿大央行預計將維持長時間的利率不變。美國 2-10 年期收益率曲線超過 70 個基點，為四年來最陡，備受關注。日本本週末將舉行投票，首相高市早苗的自民黨似乎將擴大支持。泰國本週末也將投票。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Prices</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>價格</strong></h3>
</div><p>G10</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>G10</p>
</div><p>• The <strong>euro</strong> spent yesterday in an almost 25-tick range on either side of $1.1800. Options for 3.7 bln euros expire there today after 3.4 bln euro options expired there yesterday. The euro was sold to a two-week low earlier today, near $1.1765 before recovering to probe $1.18 io Europe. The momentum indicators warn that the downside correction is probably not complete.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>歐元</strong> 昨日在 1.1800 美元附近波動，幾乎在 25 個點的範圍內。今天有價值 37 億歐元的期權將在此到期，昨日有 34 億歐元的期權也在此到期。歐元今天早些時候被拋售至兩週低點，接近 1.1765 美元，隨後反彈至接近 1.18 美元。動量指標警告稱，向下修正可能尚未完成。</p>
</div><p>• The dollar took out the previous session high against the <strong>yen</strong> for the fifth consecutive session yesterday. The greenback reached almost JPY157.35, its best level since January 23 and the rate-check by US officials. The dollar barely slipped through yesterday’s low (~JPY156.65) before recovering back to JPY157, where there are about $810 mln in options that today. It settled near JPY154.80 at the end of last week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• 美元昨日連續第五個交易日突破了對 <strong>日元</strong> 的前一交易日高點。美元接近 JPY157.35，為 1 月 23 日以來的最佳水平，且美國官員進行了利率檢查。美元幾乎跌破昨日低點（約 JPY156.65），隨後反彈至 JPY157，今天在此處有約 8.1 億美元的期權到期。上週末收於 JPY154.80。</p>
</div><p>• A combination of a dovish hold by the Bank of England and new knocks on Prime Minister Starmer saw <strong>sterling</strong> tumble more than a cent for the first time in three months. It lost the most to the euro (~0.75%) since last August. Sterling overshot the (61.8%) retracement objective of its run-up from the January 19 low (~$1.3330) to the last week’s high (~$1.3870) that is found near $1.3535. It was sold to a two-week low near $1.3510 today before catching a bid that saw it recover to about $1.3580. The 20-day moving average is about $1.3575. Near-term risk extends to $1.3600-20, though the momentum indicators have only just turned lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• 英國央行的鴿派維持和首相斯塔默的新打擊使得 <strong>英鎊</strong> 首次在三個月內下跌超過一美分。英鎊對歐元的跌幅為自去年 8 月以來最大（約 0.75%）。英鎊超出了從 1 月 19 日低點（約 1.3330 美元）到上週高點（約 1.3870 美元）的上漲幅度的 61.8% 回撤目標，回撤目標位於約 1.3535 美元。今天被拋售至兩週低點，接近 1.3510 美元，隨後反彈至約 1.3580 美元。20 日移動平均線約為 1.3575 美元。短期風險延伸至 1.3600-20 美元，儘管動量指標剛剛轉向下行。</p>
</div><p>• The US dollar settled above <strong>CAD</strong> 1.3700 yesterday for the first time in nearly two weeks. That area corresponded to the (50%) retracement of the decline since the middle of last month. Follow-through buying lifted it to CAD1.3725 today. Options for almost $700 mln at CAD1.3700 expire today. The next retracement target and 20-day moving average are in the $1.3750-60 area. However, dollar is reversing lower and has been sold to session lows in the European morning slightly below CAD1.3680. Yesterday’s low was near CAD1.3655 and a break of it would help stabilize the Canadian dollar’s tone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• 美元昨日首次在 <strong>加元</strong>1.3700 以上收盤，接近兩週以來的首次。這一水平對應於自上個月中旬以來的下跌的 50% 回撤。後續買盤將其推高至今天的 CAD1.3725。今天在 CAD1.3700 的期權接近 7 億美元到期。下一個回撤目標和 20 日移動平均線位於 1.3750-60 加元區域。然而，美元正在回落，並在歐洲早盤被拋售至略低於 CAD1.3680 的低點。昨日低點接近 CAD1.3655，突破該點將有助於穩定加元的走勢。</p>
</div><p>• The <strong>Australian dollar</strong> fell to a three-day low yesterday near $0.6940. It has completely unwound the gains registered in the wake of Tuesday’s rate hike. Today, it took out Monday’s low (~ $0.6910) and frayed the $0.6900 level, where options for almost A$3 bln are struck at $0.6900 that expire Monday and Tuesday next week. The Aussie has rebounded to almost $0.6980. Yesterday’s high was a little above $0.7005. A close above it would lift the technical tone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>澳元</strong> 昨日跌至三天低點，接近 0.6940 美元。它已完全回吐了週二加息後所獲得的漲幅。今天，它突破了週一的低點（約 0.6910 美元），並接近 0.6900 美元水平，那裏有近 30 億澳元的期權將在下週一和週二到期。澳元反彈至接近 0.6980 美元。昨日高點略高於 0.7005 美元。若收盤高於該水平，將提升技術面。</p>
</div><p>EM</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新興市場</p>
</div><p>• The <strong>Mexican peso</strong> barely reacted to yesterday’s decision by Banxico to leave its overnight target rate at 7.0% and seemed to signal an extended pause. The dollar settled near MXN17.5075 yesterday and rose to MXN17.5660 today before dollar sellers made a stand and sent the greenback through MXN17.34. Yesterday’s low was a touch below MXN17.30. The US dollar settled last week near MXN17.46.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>墨西哥比索</strong> 對 Banxico 昨日決定將隔夜目標利率維持在 7.0% 的反應微弱，似乎暗示將延長暫停。美元昨日收於 MXN17.5075，今天上漲至 MXN17.5660，隨後美元賣家出手，將美元推低至 MXN17.34。昨日低點略低於 MXN17.30。上週美元收於 MXN17.46。</p>
</div><p>• The PBOC set the dollar’s fix higher for the second consecutive session today for the third time this year. Today’s reference rate was set at <strong>CNY</strong> 6.9590 after CNY6.9570 yesterday and CNY6.9678 a week ago. The offshore yuan is in a narrow range as the greenback remains in its recent trough. The dollar is near CNH6.9370 and settled last week around CNH6.9585.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• 中國人民銀行今天連續第二個交易日將美元的基準匯率上調，這是今年的第三次。今天的參考匯率設定為 <strong>CNY</strong> 6.9590，昨日為 CNY6.9570，上週為 CNY6.9678。離岸人民幣在狹窄範圍內波動，美元保持在近期低點附近。美元接近 CNH6.9370，上週收於 CNH6.9585。</p>
</div><p>• The Reserve Bank of India stood pat and the dollar recovered to trade into the gap created by Tuesday’s sharply lower opening. The greenback reached <strong>INR</strong> 90.8550 today. It settled near INR91.99 a week ago. A shelf has been forged in recent days near INR90.00.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• 印度儲備銀行維持利率不變，美元回升至週二大幅低開所形成的缺口。今天美元達到 <strong>INR</strong> 90.8550。上週收於 INR91.99。最近幾天在 INR90.00 附近形成了一個平台。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Other Markets</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>其他市場</strong></h3>
</div><p>• The steep losses in US <strong>equities</strong> yesterday weighed on Asia Pacific markets today. Outside of Japan and India, the large bourses tumbled. Europe’s Stoxx 600, with less tech exposure, is up around 0.3% after losing 1% yesterday. US index futures are 0.3%-0.6% higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• 昨日美國 <strong>股票</strong> 的急劇下跌對亞太市場造成了壓力。除了日本和印度，大型股市普遍下跌。歐洲的 Stoxx 600 指數，因科技股暴露較少，昨日下跌 1% 後上漲約 0.3%。美國指數期貨上漲 0.3%-0.6%。</p>
</div><p>• <strong>Benchmark 10-year yields</strong> are mostly lower today. Japan’s 10-year yield slipped almost 1 bp and yields are 2-3 bp lower in Europe. The 10-year US Treasury yield is firmer but below 4.20%. It is off about eight basis points this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>基準 10 年期收益率</strong> 今天大多下跌。日本 10 年期收益率下滑近 1 個基點，歐洲的收益率下跌 2-3 個基點。10 年期美國國債收益率有所上升，但仍低於 4.20%。本週下降約 8 個基點。</p>
</div><p>• After initial follow-through selling in Asia, <strong>gold and silver</strong> have reversed higher. Gold was sold to almost $4655 and is now back to nearly $4890. Silver spiked to almost $64, a low since mid-December but rebounded and is now near $75.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• 在亞洲初步跟隨賣盤後，<strong>黃金和白銀</strong> 反彈上漲。黃金被拋售至接近 4655 美元，現在回升至接近 4890 美元。白銀一度飆升至接近 64 美元，為自去年 12 月以來的低點，但隨後反彈，目前接近 75 美元。</p>
</div><p>• <strong>March WTI</strong> is consolidating between around $62.30 and $64.60 as the market awaits news on the US-Iran talks. It settled near $65.20 a week ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>3 月 WTI</strong> 在約 62.30 美元和 64.60 美元之間整理，市場在等待關於美伊談判的消息。上週收於約 65.20 美元。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Data</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>數據</strong></h3>
</div><p>• The <strong>US</strong> was supposed to release the January jobs report today, but the government shutdown interrupted the schedule (again). That leaves the preliminary February University of Michigan consumer survey as the only economic report of the day. Sentiment may have slipped after improving for the past two months, while the inflation expectations could be stable at January levels: 4.0% and 3.3% for the 1-year and 5-10-year projections, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>美國</strong> 原定於今天發佈 1 月份的就業報告，但政府停擺再次打亂了日程。這使得初步的 2 月份密歇根大學消費者調查成為今天唯一的經濟報告。儘管過去兩個月情緒有所改善，但情緒可能有所下滑，而通脹預期可能保持在 1 月份的水平：1 年期和 5-10 年期的預期分別為 4.0% 和 3.3%。</p>
</div><p>• <strong>Canada</strong> will provide its monthly update on the labor market. After full-time positions jumped 51.4 k in December, it is difficult to anticipate a repeat in January. The unemployment rate is seen steady at 6.8%. With the Bank of Canada seen to be on an extended hold, the policy implications are negligible, even if the report poses headline risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>加拿大</strong> 將提供其勞動力市場的月度更新。在 12 月份全職職位激增 51.4 千後，預計 1 月份難以重複這一情況。失業率預計保持在 6.8%。由於加拿大央行被認為將維持較長時間的利率不變，因此即使報告存在頭條風險，政策影響也微乎其微。</p>
</div><p>• On the heels of the 7.8% surge in <strong>Germany’s</strong> December factory orders reported yesterday, the strongest in couple of years, Germany reported an unexpected 1.9% drop in industrial output. The orders were heavily weighted to domestic customers, but the December trade surplus, also reported today, was larger than expected at 17.1 bln euros, bolstered by a 4% increase in exports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• 在 <strong>德國</strong> 昨天報告的 12 月份工廠訂單激增 7.8% 之後，德國意外報告工業產出下降 1.9%。這些訂單主要集中在國內客户，但今天報告的 12 月份貿易順差為 171 億歐元，超出預期，得益於出口增長 4%。</p>
</div><p>• <strong>Japan</strong> reported disappointing December household spending. It was a whopping 2.6% lower than a year ago. The median forecast in Bloomberg’s survey was for a 0.3% decline. Japan holds the lower house election on Sunday, and polls show the LDP with a chance to recapture a majority. In the past, maintained its alliance with the Komeito Party even though there were times that it might not have been politically necessary. We suspect this will be the case with its new alliance partner, Japan’s Innovation Party.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>日本</strong> 報告了令人失望的 12 月份家庭支出，同比下降了 2.6%。彭博社調查的中位數預測為下降 0.3%。日本將在週日舉行下院選舉，民調顯示自民黨有機會重新奪回多數席位。在過去，自民黨即使在政治上不必要的情況下也維持與公明黨的聯盟。我們懷疑這將是與其新聯盟夥伴日本創新黨的情況。</p>
</div><p>• <strong>Thailand</strong> holds its general election Sunday, and the fragmented nature of its political climate warns that it may take some time to form the next government. There is also a yes/no referendum on the desire for constitutional reform.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>泰國</strong> 將在週日舉行大選，政治氣候的分裂性質警告稱，組建下屆政府可能需要一些時間。還有關於憲法改革意願的是/否公投。</p>
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在延續漲勢之後，美元有所回軟