<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2020/11/27/16/59/man-5782411_960_720.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2020/11/27/16/59/man-5782411_960_720.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>圖片來源：Pixabay</em></p>
<p>上週，隨着科技行業的暴跌，市場再次出現波動。股票中的防禦性行業保持着短期的動能，但上週，Trinity 模型捕捉到了一個更大的變化——在一個完全不同的資產類別中。</p>
<p>這是一個在過去幾年中基本處於沉睡狀態的資產類別，但當事情開始崩潰時，它為交易者和投資者提供了最高程度的保護，以度過風暴。</p>
<p>上週，這個資產類別重新煥發生機，實際上，我認為這一走勢必須持續下去，以便科技行業觸底，最終將股票推向新的歷史高點。</p>
<h3><strong>在被證明之前的避風港</strong></h3>
<p>如果這還不明顯，我所説的是國債市場。儘管在預算和債務方面聯邦層面存在諸多問題，但國債仍然提供了 “無風險” 投資的認知。這就是為什麼當股票波動性開始上升時，債券往往會受到追捧。</p>
<p>看看這張 30 年期國債期貨的周線圖。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Screenshot-2026-02-06-143310.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Screenshot-2026-02-06-143310.png"/></p>
<p>我們在這裏關注的是債券價格，而不是利率。這意味着如果利率下降，這張圖會上升。如果利率上升，這張圖會下降。</p>
<p>當事情開始變得瘋狂時，債券上漲的原因是交易者從增長心態轉向保護心態。理論上，債券的風險低於股票，當它們開始超越股票時，就像上週那樣，無法忽視。這意味着是時候採取防禦策略了。</p>
<p>我們知道特朗普政府希望降低利率。他們與美聯儲之間的公開爭執。我想不出比股票出現一些疲軟更能促使美聯儲儘早採取行動的更好方法。</p>
<p>還有另一件事——科技行業喜歡低利率。如果債券在這裏維持其需求，利率將會下降。這實際上為科技行業再次開始超越提供了背景，如果科技開始反彈……那麼，整個市場將隨之而來。</p>
<p>這都是在資產類別和行業之間發生的資本週期的一部分。實際上，這是一個需要經歷疲軟才能恢復強勁的案例。</p>
<p>在短期內關注債券。你最不想做的就是購買 30 年期國債並持有到到期，但這並不意味着在接下來的幾周內它們不會隨着股票決定是否大幅下跌而上漲。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>從恐慌到狂熱：賣出結束了嗎？</p>
<p>標普 500 雙頂確認</p>
<p>輪動失去了理智</p>

<p>市場再次出現波動，科技行業面臨下滑，促使資金轉向防禦性行業。此前沉寂的國債市場開始受到關注，作為一種保護性資產類別，暗示債券可能會迎來反彈。這一轉變表明資金從增長轉向保護，債券的表現優於股票。特朗普政府推動降低利率的舉措可能進一步支持科技行業的復甦。投資者應密切關注債券，因為其表現可能會影響未來幾周的股市動態</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2020/11/27/16/59/man-5782411_960_720.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2020/11/27/16/59/man-5782411_960_720.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Pixabay</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>圖片來源：Pixabay</em></p>
</div><p>Volatility crept back into the market last week as the rout in the tech sector accelerated. Defensive sectors within equities are maintaining their near-term momentum, but last week, the Trinity model picked up on an even bigger shift - in a completely different asset class.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上週，隨着科技行業的暴跌，市場再次出現波動。股票中的防禦性行業保持着短期的動能，但上週，Trinity 模型捕捉到了一個更大的變化——在一個完全不同的資產類別中。</p>
</div><p>It’s an asset class that has been largely asleep for a few years now, but when things start to break, it offers traders and investors the highest degree of protection to ride out the storm.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這是一個在過去幾年中基本處於沉睡狀態的資產類別，但當事情開始崩潰時，它為交易者和投資者提供了最高程度的保護，以度過風暴。</p>
</div><p>Last week, this asset class exploded back to life, and in fact, I’d argue that this move has to continue in order for the tech sector to bottom, and ultimately, take stocks back to new all-time highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上週，這個資產類別重新煥發生機，實際上，我認為這一走勢必須持續下去，以便科技行業觸底，最終將股票推向新的歷史高點。</p>
</div><h3><strong>The Safe Haven Until Proven Otherwise</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>在被證明之前的避風港</strong></h3>
</div><p>In case it wasn’t obvious, I was talking about the Treasury market. Despite all the problems at the federal level when it comes to the budget and debt, Treasuries still offer the perception of a “risk-free” investment. It’s why bonds tend to bid when volatility in stocks starts to spike.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果這還不明顯，我所説的是國債市場。儘管在預算和債務方面聯邦層面存在諸多問題，但國債仍然提供了 “無風險” 投資的認知。這就是為什麼當股票波動性開始上升時，債券往往會受到追捧。</p>
</div><p>Take a look at this weekly chart of the 30-Year Treasury futures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>看看這張 30 年期國債期貨的周線圖。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Screenshot-2026-02-06-143310.png" alt="" original-src="https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Screenshot-2026-02-06-143310.png"/></p>
<p>We’re looking at the bond price here, not the interest rate. This means that if rates go down, this chart goes up. If rates go up, this chart goes down.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們在這裏關注的是債券價格，而不是利率。這意味着如果利率下降，這張圖會上升。如果利率上升，這張圖會下降。</p>
</div><p>The reason bonds rally when things start getting crazy is because traders move from a mindset of growth to a mindset of protection. Bonds, in theory, are less risky than stocks, and when they start outperforming stocks, like they did last week, it’s impossible to ignore. It means it’s time to play defense.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當事情開始變得瘋狂時，債券上漲的原因是交易者從增長心態轉向保護心態。理論上，債券的風險低於股票，當它們開始超越股票時，就像上週那樣，無法忽視。這意味着是時候採取防禦策略了。</p>
</div><p>We know the Trump administration wants lower interest rates. They’ve been in a public feud with the Fed. I can’t think of a better way to get the Fed to act sooner than for there to be some weakness in stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們知道特朗普政府希望降低利率。他們與美聯儲之間的公開爭執。我想不出比股票出現一些疲軟更能促使美聯儲儘早採取行動的更好方法。</p>
</div><p>And here’s the other thing - tech loves lower interest rates. If bonds sustain their bid here, rates will go down. This actually creates a backdrop for the tech sector to start outperforming again, and if tech starts to turn… well, it’s going to bring the whole market with it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>還有另一件事——科技行業喜歡低利率。如果債券在這裏維持其需求，利率將會下降。這實際上為科技行業再次開始超越提供了背景，如果科技開始反彈……那麼，整個市場將隨之而來。</p>
</div><p>This is all part of capital cycles that take place within and between asset classes and sectors. It’s literally a case of weakness needing to play out before strength can return.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這都是在資產類別和行業之間發生的資本週期的一部分。實際上，這是一個需要經歷疲軟才能恢復強勁的案例。</p>
</div><p>Watch bonds here near-term. The last thing you want to do is buy 30-Year Treasuries and hold them to maturity, but that doesn’t mean they won’t rally over the next few weeks as stocks figure out whether to break down meaningfully or not.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在短期內關注債券。你最不想做的就是購買 30 年期國債並持有到到期，但這並不意味着在接下來的幾周內它們不會隨着股票決定是否大幅下跌而上漲。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>From Panic To Manic: Is Selling Over?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從恐慌到狂熱：賣出結束了嗎？</p>
</div><p>S&amp;P 500 Double Top Confirmed</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>標普 500 雙頂確認</p>
</div><p>The Rotation Has Lost It's Damn Mind</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>輪動失去了理智</p>
</div>

真正的避險行動是否剛剛開始？