<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2016/12/13/22/15/chart-1905225__340.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="605" height="340" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2016/12/13/22/15/chart-1905225__340.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>圖片來源：Pixabay</em></p>
<p>這一週真是瘋狂。看起來空頭將完全接管市場，週四晚間比特幣的暴跌讓人驚訝，價格跌至峯值的一半以下。然而，週五多頭進行了反擊，納斯達克和標準普爾 500 指數上漲了數百點，道瓊斯工業平均指數上漲了四位數，並且道瓊斯工業平均指數首次突破了 50,000 點。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_INDU-1-640x335.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="640" height="335" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_INDU-1-640x335.jpg"/></p>
<p>我的看法（當然也是我的希望）是，這不過是一次熊市反彈，或者説是死貓反彈，或者是緩解反彈，或者你想給它起的其他名字。納斯達克綜合指數例如，已經回升至 50% 斐波那契回撤位（在歷史高點和 11 月低點之間），回到了兩天前未見的價格。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_COMPQ-2-640x335.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="640" height="335" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_COMPQ-2-640x335.jpg"/></p>
<p>逐字逐句，納斯達克 100 指數也是如此。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_NDX-2-640x335.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="640" height="335" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_NDX-2-640x335.jpg"/></p>
<p>不過，標準普爾 500 指數的形態有所不同。它的歷史高點更近，週五的反彈彌補了週四、週三，甚至週二的一些損失。然而，那條破裂的楔形圖形很重要，我認為多頭如果想要進一步推高，週一必須帶來一個巨大的催化劑。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_SPX-2-640x335.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="640" height="335" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_SPX-2-640x335.jpg"/></p>
<p>半導體指數仍然處於未破裂的上升通道內。本週它接近了，但——不，沒戲。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_SOX-640x335.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="640" height="335" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_SOX-640x335.jpg"/></p>
<p>道瓊斯公用事業指數大約完成了 90%，這可能最終形成一個出色的頭肩頂。這裏顯然還有更多的工作要做。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_UTIL-1-640x335.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="640" height="335" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_UTIL-1-640x335.jpg"/></p>
<p>最後，道瓊斯運輸指數與其兄弟道瓊斯工業平均指數一樣：衝擊歷史新高。出於某種原因（而且這絕對不是因為油價便宜），運輸類股票幾個月來表現得非常好。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_TRAN-2-640x335.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="640" height="335" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_TRAN-2-640x335.jpg"/></p>
<p>我進入這一週的倉位相對較輕——在 25 個頭寸中大約 70% 已投入，沒有一個大頭寸。希望空頭能在周初重新蓄力。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>被打敗的肉類</p>
<p>萬億俱樂部</p>
<p>11 月 NQ</p>

<p>市場上週經歷了顯著的波動，比特幣在週五之前大幅下跌，隨後強勁反彈。道瓊斯工業平均指數首次突破 50,000 點，而納斯達克綜合指數和納斯達克 100 指數回升至關鍵的斐波那契水平。標準普爾 500 指數也恢復了本週早些時候的損失。半導體指數仍處於上升趨勢，運輸類股票表現良好。作者目前輕度投資，將 70% 的資本分散在 25 個頭寸上，並預計下週可能會出現熊市活動</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2016/12/13/22/15/chart-1905225__340.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2016/12/13/22/15/chart-1905225__340.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Pixabay</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>圖片來源：Pixabay</em></p>
</div><p>That was a seriously crazy week. It seemed like the bears were going to absolutely take over the market, with an amazing crescendo seen late on Thursday as Bitcoin plunged to less than half its peak price. Friday saw the revenge of the bulls, however, and the NQ and ES went up hundreds of points, the YM went up quadruple digits, and the Dow Industrials crossed above 50,000 for the first time in human history.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一週真是瘋狂。看起來空頭將完全接管市場，週四晚間比特幣的暴跌讓人驚訝，價格跌至峯值的一半以下。然而，週五多頭進行了反擊，納斯達克和標準普爾 500 指數上漲了數百點，道瓊斯工業平均指數上漲了四位數，並且道瓊斯工業平均指數首次突破了 50,000 點。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_INDU-1-640x335.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_INDU-1-640x335.jpg"/></p>
<p>My opinion (and, certainly, my hope) is that this was nothing more than a bear market rally, or a dead cat bounce, or a relief rally, or whatever other moniker you want to assign it. The Nasdaq Composite, for instance, has pushed its way back to the 50% Fib (between the lifetime high and the November low), returning to prices not seen since two days prior.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我的看法（當然也是我的希望）是，這不過是一次熊市反彈，或者説是死貓反彈，或者是緩解反彈，或者你想給它起的其他名字。納斯達克綜合指數例如，已經回升至 50% 斐波那契回撤位（在歷史高點和 11 月低點之間），回到了兩天前未見的價格。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_COMPQ-2-640x335.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_COMPQ-2-640x335.jpg"/></p>
<p>Word for word, the same applies for the Nasdaq 100.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>逐字逐句，納斯達克 100 指數也是如此。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_NDX-2-640x335.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_NDX-2-640x335.jpg"/></p>
<p>The S&amp;P 500 is shaped differently, though. Its own lifetime high is closer, and the rally on Friday undid the losses from Thursday, Wednesday, and even a little bit from Tuesday. That broken wedge is important, though, and I think the bulls are going to have to come in on Monday with a huge catalyst if they want to push things even higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，標準普爾 500 指數的形態有所不同。它的歷史高點更近，週五的反彈彌補了週四、週三，甚至週二的一些損失。然而，那條破裂的楔形圖形很重要，我認為多頭如果想要進一步推高，週一必須帶來一個巨大的催化劑。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_SPX-2-640x335.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_SPX-2-640x335.jpg"/></p>
<p>The semiconductor index remains within its unbroken ascending channel. It got tantalizing close this week, but – nope, no dice.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>半導體指數仍然處於未破裂的上升通道內。本週它接近了，但——不，沒戲。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_SOX-640x335.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_SOX-640x335.jpg"/></p>
<p>The Dow Utility Index is about 90% done with what might ultimately be a fantastic head-and-shoulders top. There’s certainly some more work to do here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>道瓊斯公用事業指數大約完成了 90%，這可能最終形成一個出色的頭肩頂。這裏顯然還有更多的工作要做。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_UTIL-1-640x335.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_UTIL-1-640x335.jpg"/></p>
<p>Finally, the Dow Transports did precisely what its brother the Industrials did: blasted to lifetime highs. For whatever reason (and it’s certainly not cheap oil), transportation stocks have been doing wildly well for months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最後，道瓊斯運輸指數與其兄弟道瓊斯工業平均指數一樣：衝擊歷史新高。出於某種原因（而且這絕對不是因為油價便宜），運輸類股票幾個月來表現得非常好。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_TRAN-2-640x335.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/slopechart_TRAN-2-640x335.jpg"/></p>
<p>I am coming into the week quite light – about 70% committed across 25 positions, with not a single large position among them. Hopefully the bears can reload with vigor early in the week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我進入這一週的倉位相對較輕——在 25 個頭寸中大約 70% 已投入，沒有一個大頭寸。希望空頭能在周初重新蓄力。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>Beaten Meat</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>被打敗的肉類</p>
</div><p>Trillion Dollar Club</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>萬億俱樂部</p>
</div><p>November NQ</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>11 月 NQ</p>
</div>

More Bounce To The Ounce

- 比特幣價格跌至歷史高點以下，市場情緒波動劇烈。  
- 道瓊斯工業平均指數首次突破 50,000 點，創歷史新高。  
- 投資者對週一市場走勢持謹慎態度，期待看多勢頭持續。

每盎司的反彈力更強