<p>我們已經接近 1000 億歐元（870 億英鎊）的標誌，而總額仍在上升。</p>
<p>斯特蘭蒂斯——控制菲亞特、標緻和克萊斯勒的公司——在週五宣佈將其電動車部門減記 220 億歐元。這筆賬單只是美國和歐洲主要汽車製造商在電動車浪潮中遭受的一系列巨大損失中的最新一筆。</p>
<p>實際上，電動車僅佔整體市場的一小部分，而在現有市場中，中國製造商將佔據大部分銷售。</p>
<p>對電動車的賭注已經變成了一場災難，行業恢復需要很多年。</p>
<p>距離禁止銷售所有新款汽油和柴油車的原定目標日期不到四年，行業巨頭本應在此時享受電池動力汽車銷售的繁榮。</p>
<p>流線型的新車型應該已經從生產線下線，新電池工廠將創造數十萬個就業機會，而投入的數十億資金將成為重振歐洲和美國工業的催化劑。</p>
<p>“我們需要 70,000 名熟練工人來製造電池，” 前首相鮑里斯·約翰遜在 2021 年宣佈。他承諾對英國電動車生產提供無限的政府支持。</p>
<p>在法國，法國總統埃馬紐埃爾·馬克龍正在投入數十億資金，使他的國家在電池和電動車生產方面成為一股力量。</p>
<p>那麼，我們開始看到所有這些投資的結果了嗎？銷售在激增，利潤在上升，新工作正在創造？其實並非如此。</p>
<p>斯特蘭蒂斯在週五的 220 億歐元減記，加上計劃出售其在一家加拿大電池合資企業的股份，導致當天股價下跌 27%。過去一年中，股價已減半，斯特蘭蒂斯的市值降至僅 170 億歐元。</p>
<p>不幸的是，它遠非孤例。通用汽車上個月表示，將對收益計提 70 億美元（50 億英鎊）的費用，幾乎全部來自其電動車部門。</p>
<p>在聖誕節前，福特表示將對其電動車業務計提 195 億美元的損失，包括取消的車輛和電池合資企業。大眾汽車在鉅額虧損的情況下開始縮減電動車的生產。</p>
<p>保時捷曾表示，到本十年末電動車將佔利潤的 80%，但在去年底宣佈將目標下調後，計提了 31 億歐元的費用。</p>
<p>即使是特斯拉，這家對電動車瞭解超過任何競爭對手的公司，也開始面臨困難。它已取消標誌性的 Model S，首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克正在拼命試圖説服大家，機器人才是未來。</p>
<p>斯特蘭蒂斯首席執行官安東尼奧·菲洛薩承認，公司高估了 “能源轉型的速度，這使我們與許多汽車買家的現實需求、能力和願望產生了距離”。</p>
<p>這是一個痛苦的承認，但至少是誠實的。有一點是明確的：我們不再聽到關於電動車轉型將導致工業復興的消息了。</p>
<p>有兩個主要問題。首先，電動車可能只是一個小眾產品。</p>
<p>司機們擔心續航里程，考慮到製造過程中的所有原材料的影響，電動車是否真的對環境更好尚不明確，充電基礎設施尚未到位，而我們產生的電力價格也不足以使電動車具備成本效益。</p>
<p>其次，在有市場的地方，以比亞迪為首的新一代中國品牌正在奪走市場份額。</p>
<p>傳統汽車巨頭認為轉型只是將內燃機替換為大電池，但事實證明，電動車是一種附有輪子的電子設備。它與手機市場有更多的共同點，而不是與那些熟悉的汽油車行業。</p>
<p>從零開始創建一家新的電動車公司要比改造一家傳統巨頭容易得多。</p>
<p>結果是，所有汽車公司現在都陷入了深深的麻煩。</p>
<p>更糟糕的是，在狂熱的能源部長埃德·米利班德的領導下，英國盲目推進 2030 年逐步淘汰新汽油車銷售的目標，即使世界其他地方都意識到這完全是瘋狂的。</p>
<p>事實上，就在本週，韓國現代汽車的首席執行官警告稱，堅守這一目標將威脅到英國汽車市場的 “嚴重干擾”。</p>
<p>坦率的説，汽車巨頭對電動車的巨大賭注已經徹底失利。</p>
<p>這讓他們損失了數百億的資本，浪費了五年的時間和精力，這些本可以更有效地用於其他地方——或許最糟糕的是，它讓那些從未聽説過的中國製造商建立了新品牌。現在要擺脱他們將非常困難。</p>
<p>這是近期工業歷史上最嚴重的自我造成的災難之一。</p>
<p>要開始恢復過程，製造商必須説服政府停止施加那些只會扭曲市場的荒謬自上而下的目標。他們必須無情地剝離那些不盈利的部門。他們必須擺脱補貼，最重要的是，他們需要重新與客户建立聯繫，製造人們能夠負擔得起並想要再次駕駛的汽車。</p>
<p>在過去五年的瘋狂之後，這是唯一的迴歸之路——而且這將是一條漫長、艱難且昂貴的道路。</p>

STLA

福特汽車

通用汽車

納斯達克全球汽車指數 - First Trust

<p>汽車行業對電動車（EV）的投資導致了鉅額財務損失，Stellantis 在其電動車部門減記了 220 億歐元。通用汽車和福特等主要製造商也對其電動車部門報告了可觀的費用。儘管最初對電動車銷售和就業創造的樂觀預期，但市場並未如預期那樣發展，中國品牌佔據了主導地位。關於電動車實用性和基礎設施的擔憂依然存在，這導致對行業未來及 2030 年逐步淘汰汽油車目標的重新評估</p>

<p>We are already getting close to the €100bn (£87bn) mark and the total is still rising.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們已經接近 1000 億歐元（870 億英鎊）的標誌，而總額仍在上升。</p>
</div><p>Stellantis – the company that controls Fiat, Peugeot and Chrysler – announced on Friday that it was writing down €22bn on its electric vehicle unit. The bill is only the latest in a series of enormous losses suffered by the major American and European auto manufacturers who jumped on the EV bandwagon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>斯特蘭蒂斯——控制菲亞特、標緻和克萊斯勒的公司——在週五宣佈將其電動車部門減記 220 億歐元。這筆賬單只是美國和歐洲主要汽車製造商在電動車浪潮中遭受的一系列巨大損失中的最新一筆。</p>
</div><p>In reality, it turns out that electric cars are only a small part of the overall market and that, insofar as it exists, Chinese manufacturers will capture most of the sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>實際上，電動車僅佔整體市場的一小部分，而在現有市場中，中國製造商將佔據大部分銷售。</p>
</div><p>The gamble on electric cars has turned into a catastrophe and it will be many years before the industry recovers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對電動車的賭注已經變成了一場災難，行業恢復需要很多年。</p>
</div><p>With less than four years remaining until the original target date for banning the sale of all new petrol and diesel cars, the giants of the industry were meant to be riding a boom in sales of battery-powered vehicles by now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>距離禁止銷售所有新款汽油和柴油車的原定目標日期不到四年，行業巨頭本應在此時享受電池動力汽車銷售的繁榮。</p>
</div><p>Sleek new models would be rolling off the production lines, new battery plants would be creating hundreds of thousands of jobs, while the billions poured into investment would be the catalyst for reindustrialising both Europe and the United States.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>流線型的新車型應該已經從生產線下線，新電池工廠將創造數十萬個就業機會，而投入的數十億資金將成為重振歐洲和美國工業的催化劑。</p>
</div><p>“We’re going to need 70,000 skilled people just to make batteries across this country,” announced Boris Johnson, the former prime minister, back in 2021. He promised unlimited government support for British EV production.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我們需要 70,000 名熟練工人來製造電池，” 前首相鮑里斯·約翰遜在 2021 年宣佈。他承諾對英國電動車生產提供無限的政府支持。</p>
</div><p>Over in France, Emmanuel Macron, the French president, was pouring billions into making his country a force in battery and EV production.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在法國，法國總統埃馬紐埃爾·馬克龍正在投入數十億資金，使他的國家在電池和電動車生產方面成為一股力量。</p>
</div><p>So we are starting to see the results of all that investment, right? Sales are booming, profits are rising and new jobs are being created? Well, not exactly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那麼，我們開始看到所有這些投資的結果了嗎？銷售在激增，利潤在上升，新工作正在創造？其實並非如此。</p>
</div><p>Stellantis’s €22bn write-down on Friday, combined with plans to offload a stake in a Canadian battery joint venture, sent shares down 27pc on the day. They have now more than halved over the last year, taking Stellantis’s value down to just €17bn.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>斯特蘭蒂斯在週五的 220 億歐元減記，加上計劃出售其在一家加拿大電池合資企業的股份，導致當天股價下跌 27%。過去一年中，股價已減半，斯特蘭蒂斯的市值降至僅 170 億歐元。</p>
</div><p>Unfortunately, it is far from alone. General Motors said last month that it was taking a $7bn (£5bn) charge against earnings, almost all of which was accounted for by its EV unit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不幸的是，它遠非孤例。通用汽車上個月表示，將對收益計提 70 億美元（50 億英鎊）的費用，幾乎全部來自其電動車部門。</p>
</div><p>Just before Christmas, Ford said it was taking a $19.5bn hit on its EV business, including cancelled vehicles and a battery joint venture. Volkswagen has started scaling back production of EVs amid heavy losses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在聖誕節前，福特表示將對其電動車業務計提 195 億美元的損失，包括取消的車輛和電池合資企業。大眾汽車在鉅額虧損的情況下開始縮減電動車的生產。</p>
</div><p>Porsche, which had said that electric vehicles would account for 80pc of profits by the end of this decade, instead announced a €3.1bn charge late last year after scaling back those targets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>保時捷曾表示，到本十年末電動車將佔利潤的 80%，但在去年底宣佈將目標下調後，計提了 31 億歐元的費用。</p>
</div><p>Even Tesla, a company that knows more about electric cars than any of its rivals, is starting to struggle. It has scrapped the iconic Model S and Elon Musk, its chief executive, is desperately trying to convince everyone that robots are the future instead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使是特斯拉，這家對電動車瞭解超過任何競爭對手的公司，也開始面臨困難。它已取消標誌性的 Model S，首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克正在拼命試圖説服大家，機器人才是未來。</p>
</div><p>Antonio Filosa, the chief executive of Stellantis, conceded that the company had overestimated “the pace of the energy transition that distanced us from many car buyers’ real-world needs, means and desires”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>斯特蘭蒂斯首席執行官安東尼奧·菲洛薩承認，公司高估了 “能源轉型的速度，這使我們與許多汽車買家的現實需求、能力和願望產生了距離”。</p>
</div><p>It is a painful admission but one that is at least honest. One point is surely clear. We are not hearing very much about how the transition to EVs would lead to an industrial renaissance any more.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這是一個痛苦的承認，但至少是誠實的。有一點是明確的：我們不再聽到關於電動車轉型將導致工業復興的消息了。</p>
</div><p>There have been two major problems. First, EVs may only be a niche product.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有兩個主要問題。首先，電動車可能只是一個小眾產品。</p>
</div><p>Drivers are worried about the range, it is far from clear they are better for the environment once the impact of all the raw materials in the manufacturing process is taken into account, the charging infrastructure is not in place and we don’t generate the electricity to power them all at a price cheap enough to make EVs cost-effective.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>司機們擔心續航里程，考慮到製造過程中的所有原材料的影響，電動車是否真的對環境更好尚不明確，充電基礎設施尚未到位，而我們產生的電力價格也不足以使電動車具備成本效益。</p>
</div><p>Next, where there is a market, the new breed of Chinese brands led by BYD is walking away with it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，在有市場的地方，以比亞迪為首的新一代中國品牌正在奪走市場份額。</p>
</div><p>The traditional auto giants thought the transition was just a matter of replacing an internal combustion engine with a big battery, but it turned out that an EV was a piece of electronics with wheels attached. It has much more in common with the mobile phone market than anything the petrolheads running the industry were familiar with.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>傳統汽車巨頭認為轉型只是將內燃機替換為大電池，但事實證明，電動車是一種附有輪子的電子設備。它與手機市場有更多的共同點，而不是與那些熟悉的汽油車行業。</p>
</div><p>It is far easier to create a new EV company from scratch than to convert one of the traditional giants.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從零開始創建一家新的電動車公司要比改造一家傳統巨頭容易得多。</p>
</div><p>The result? All the auto companies are now in deep trouble.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>結果是，所有汽車公司現在都陷入了深深的麻煩。</p>
</div><p>Even worse, under the direction of Ed Miliband, the fanatical Energy Secretary, Britain is pressing on blindly with the 2030 target for phasing out sales of new petrol cars even as the rest of the world recognises that it is complete madness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更糟糕的是，在狂熱的能源部長埃德·米利班德的領導下，英國盲目推進 2030 年逐步淘汰新汽油車銷售的目標，即使世界其他地方都意識到這完全是瘋狂的。</p>
</div><p>Indeed, only this week, the boss of South Korea’s Hyundai warned that sticking to the target threatened “severe disruption” in the UK auto market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事實上，就在本週，韓國現代汽車的首席執行官警告稱，堅守這一目標將威脅到英國汽車市場的 “嚴重干擾”。</p>
</div><p>The blunt truth is this: the massive bet that the auto giants took on EVs has backfired spectacularly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>坦率的説，汽車巨頭對電動車的巨大賭注已經徹底失利。</p>
</div><p>It has cost them tens of billions in capital, it has wasted five years of time and energy that could have been more profitably deployed elsewhere and – perhaps worst of all – it has allowed Chinese manufacturers that no one had ever heard of to establish new brands. It will very difficult to get rid of them now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這讓他們損失了數百億的資本，浪費了五年的時間和精力，這些本可以更有效地用於其他地方——或許最糟糕的是，它讓那些從未聽説過的中國製造商建立了新品牌。現在要擺脱他們將非常困難。</p>
</div><p>It is one of the worst self-inflicted calamities of recent industrial history.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這是近期工業歷史上最嚴重的自我造成的災難之一。</p>
</div><p>To start the recovery process, the manufacturers will have to persuade governments to stop imposing ridiculous top-down targets that only distort the market. They will have to ruthlessly get rid of units that don’t make any money. They will have to wean themselves off subsidies and, most crucially, they will need to reconnect with their customers, making cars that people can afford and want to drive again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要開始恢復過程，製造商必須説服政府停止施加那些只會扭曲市場的荒謬自上而下的目標。他們必須無情地剝離那些不盈利的部門。他們必須擺脱補貼，最重要的是，他們需要重新與客户建立聯繫，製造人們能夠負擔得起並想要再次駕駛的汽車。</p>
</div><p>After the madness of the last five years, it is the only way back – and it will be a long, hard and expensive road.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去五年的瘋狂之後，這是唯一的迴歸之路——而且這將是一條漫長、艱難且昂貴的道路。</p>
</div>

The auto industry’s gamble on electric cars has turned into a catastrophe

- Stellantis 宣佈對電動車部門減記 220 億歐元，反映行業巨頭虧損加劇。  
- 電動車銷售僅佔市場小部分，中國品牌搶佔大部分份額。  
- 汽車廠商需説服政府放棄不合理目標，以重建與消費者的聯繫。

汽車行業押注電動汽車的舉措已經演變成了一場災難