<p>道瓊斯工業平均指數在週五突破 50,000 點，股市反彈</p><p>軟件股的暴跌引發了對人工智能影響的質疑</p><p>週三將發佈就業報告，週五將發佈消費者物價指數，數據周忙碌</p><p>作者：劉易斯·克勞斯科普夫</p><p>紐約，2 月 8 日（路透社）- 由於人工智能驅動的重磅科技行業洗牌，預計在接下來的一週內，股票投資者將保持緊張，而一系列數據可能將焦點轉向經濟健康狀況。本週，軟件股的持續下跌吸引了華爾街的注意，投資者擔心人工智能將如何顛覆整個行業的商業模式。科技行業的進一步疲軟，作為美國主要股指的重要組成部分，拖累了市場大部分時間。</p><p>週五，股市強勁反彈，道瓊斯工業平均指數（.DJI）首次突破 50,000 點，主要受半導體公司股票激增的推動。在表面之下，投資者對從科技股轉向在過去三年多的牛市中表現不佳的市場其他部分感到鼓舞。儘管科技股表現不佳，但能源、消費品和工業股在今年迄今表現出色。</p><p>“輪動是今年的主導主題，並且隨着我們看到這些傳統經濟部門和股票真正受到關注，這一主題仍在繼續，” 愛德華·瓊斯的高級全球投資策略師安傑洛·庫爾卡法斯表示。“與此同時，科技股的預期門檻似乎非常高，無論公司報告什麼，投資者的自然傾向似乎都是獲利了結。”</p><p>儘管科技行業（.SPLRCT）在週五反彈，但該組自去年 10 月底達到年度峯值以來已下滑 9%。</p><p>在此期間，標準普爾 500 指數的其他 11 個行業大多數都實現了增長，其中四個行業的漲幅超過了兩位數百分比。</p><p>但基準標準普爾 500 指數（.SPX）在此期間僅勉強實現了微幅上漲。由於科技行業仍佔標準普爾 500 指數約三分之一的權重，投資者擔心如果科技股繼續疲軟，指數將面臨困難。</p><p>“市場可以在沒有明顯的指數級壓力的情況下，吸收長期的輪動和大型行業贏家的出現，” 德意志銀行宏觀和主題研究負責人吉姆·裏德在一份報告中表示。“然而，主導行業的拋售越長越深，廣泛指數承受拖累的難度就越大。”</p><h3 id="08g62m9bn">軟件行業的未來何在？</h3><p>壓力集中在軟件行業，標準普爾 500 軟件和服務指數（.SPLRCIS）在短短一週多的時間內暴跌 15%。對人工智能顛覆的擔憂因軟件巨頭微軟（MSFT.O）發佈的令人失望的財報而加劇。</p><p>軟件行業的後果凸顯了投資者越來越試圖確定人工智能的贏家和輸家。</p><p>“以前是 ‘人工智能提升了所有船隻’，” Manulife John Hancock Investments 的共同首席投資策略師馬修·米斯金表示。“現在，人們擔心這一技術領域的巨大加速可能導致其他企業無法實現之前的增長率。”</p><p>即將到來的一週將有來自 AppLovin（APP.O）和 Datadog（DDOG.O）的軟件行業報告。隨着第四季度財報季的結束，知名公司如可口可樂（KO.N）、思科系統（CSCO.O）和麥當勞（MCD.N）也將發佈業績。</p><p>就業和通脹數據即將發佈，月度就業和消費者價格報告將在因最近結束的三天政府停擺而略微推遲後發佈。根據路透社的調查，預計週三發佈的 1 月份非農就業報告將顯示增加 70,000 個就業崗位。投資者正在評估勞動力市場的疲軟是否已經減緩。儘管美聯儲在上個月維持利率不變時提到就業市場的穩定，但週四的一項調查顯示，美國僱主宣佈的裁員在 1 月份激增。</p><p>與此同時，美聯儲認為通脹仍然 “略高”，1 月份的消費者價格指數將在週五發佈，提供最新的趨勢洞察。由於美聯儲描述了通脹和就業風險的降低，市場預計中央銀行將在 6 月會議之前暫停進一步的降息。到那時，唐納德·特朗普總統新任命的美聯儲主席凱文·沃什可能會掌權。</p><p>在中央銀行去年年底降息後，美聯儲基金期貨繼續預計到 12 月將再降約兩個四分之一百分點的利率，這一預期在沃什上個月末被提名後普遍保持不變。</p><p>“利率預期在過去幾周內一直相當穩定，” 庫爾卡法斯表示。“我們將看看勞動力市場數據的任何疲軟或通脹的任何意外降温是否會加速市場認為下一次降息可能會到來的時間表。”</p>

<p>在科技行業中，人工智能驅動的洗牌引發了投資者的擔憂，軟件股票經歷了顯著的下跌。道瓊斯工業平均指數最近突破了 50,000 點，受到半導體股票的提振，而能源和消費品等其他行業表現良好。即將發佈的經濟數據，包括就業和通脹報告，可能會影響市場情緒。投資者對科技行業的未來持謹慎態度，尤其是在微軟等主要公司發佈令人失望的財報之後。美聯儲在利率方面的立場保持穩定，預計今年晚些時候可能會降息</p>

<p>(Repeats story first published on Friday)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（重複週五首次發佈的故事）</p>
</div><p>Dow industrials hit 50,000 on Friday as stocks rebound</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>道瓊斯工業平均指數在週五突破 50,000 點，股市反彈</p>
</div><p>Software swoon draws questions about AI’s impact</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>軟件股的暴跌引發了對人工智能影響的質疑</p>
</div><p>Jobs report due on Wednesday, CPI on Friday in busy data week</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週三將發佈就業報告，週五將發佈消費者物價指數，數據周忙碌</p>
</div><p>By Lewis Krauskopf</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：劉易斯·克勞斯科普夫</p>
</div><p>NEW YORK, Feb 6 (Reuters) - An artificial intelligence-driven shakeout in the heavyweight technology sector is set to keep stock investors on edge in the coming week while a barrage of data could shift focus to the health of the economy. A deepening rout among software stocks commanded Wall Street’s attention this week, as investors worried about the extent to which AI would upend business models throughout the industry. Further weakness in the tech sector, which holds massive weight in the major U.S. equity indexes, dragged on the market for much of the week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>紐約，2 月 6 日（路透社）- 由於人工智能驅動的重磅科技行業洗牌，預計在接下來的一週內，股票投資者將保持緊張，而一系列數據可能將焦點轉向經濟健康狀況。本週，軟件股的持續下跌吸引了華爾街的注意，投資者擔心人工智能將如何顛覆整個行業的商業模式。科技行業的進一步疲軟，作為美國主要股指的重要組成部分，拖累了市場大部分時間。</p>
</div><p>On Friday, stocks staged a strong rebound, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) crossing 50,000 for the first time, led by a surge in shares of semiconductor companies. Below the surface, investors have been encouraged about a rotation from tech to other parts of the market that underperformed for most of the bull market that began more than three years ago. While tech has struggled, energy, consumer staples and industrials have shined so far this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週五，股市強勁反彈，道瓊斯工業平均指數（.DJI）首次突破 50,000 點，主要受半導體公司股票激增的推動。在表面之下，投資者對從科技股轉向在過去三年多的牛市中表現不佳的市場其他部分感到鼓舞。儘管科技股表現不佳，但能源、消費品和工業股在今年迄今表現出色。</p>
</div><p>“Rotation is the dominant theme this year and continues to be as we see these old-economy sectors and stocks really get some love,” said Angelo Kourkafas, senior global investment strategist at Edward Jones. “At the same time, the bar of expectations seems to be so high for tech that no matter what companies report, it seems like the natural inclination from investors is to take some profits.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“輪動是今年的主導主題，並且隨着我們看到這些傳統經濟部門和股票真正受到關注，這一主題仍在繼續，” 愛德華·瓊斯的高級全球投資策略師安傑洛·庫爾卡法斯表示。“與此同時，科技股的預期門檻似乎非常高，無論公司報告什麼，投資者的自然傾向似乎都是獲利了結。”</p>
</div><p>Although the tech sector (.SPLRCT) bounced back on Friday, the group has slid 9% since it peaked for the year in late October.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管科技行業（.SPLRCT）在週五反彈，但該組自去年 10 月底達到年度峯值以來已下滑 9%。</p>
</div><p>Over that period, most of the other 11 S&amp;P 500 sectors have posted gains, including four with double-digit percentage rises.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在此期間，標準普爾 500 指數的其他 11 個行業大多數都實現了增長，其中四個行業的漲幅超過了兩位數百分比。</p>
</div><p>But the benchmark S&amp;P 500 (.SPX) has managed to eke out only a slim increase in that time. With the tech sector still accounting for about one-third of the weight in the S&amp;P 500, investors fear the index will struggle if tech continues to falter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但基準標準普爾 500 指數（.SPX）在此期間僅勉強實現了微幅上漲。由於科技行業仍佔標準普爾 500 指數約三分之一的權重，投資者擔心如果科技股繼續疲軟，指數將面臨困難。</p>
</div><p>“A market can absorb a prolonged rotation with large sector winners without obvious index-level stress for quite some time,” Jim Reid, head of macro and thematic research at Deutsche Bank, said in a note. “However, the longer and deeper the selloff in a dominant sector becomes, the harder it can be for the broader index to withstand the drag.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“市場可以在沒有明顯的指數級壓力的情況下，吸收長期的輪動和大型行業贏家的出現，” 德意志銀行宏觀和主題研究負責人吉姆·裏德在一份報告中表示。“然而，主導行業的拋售越長越深，廣泛指數承受拖累的難度就越大。”</p>
</div><h3>WHERE NEXT FOR SINKING SOFTWARE?</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>軟件行業的未來何在？</h3>
</div><p>Stress is centering on software, with the S&amp;P 500 software and services index (.SPLRCIS) tumbling 15% in a little over a week. Fears about AI disruption were compounded by disappointing earnings reports including from software giant Microsoft (MSFT.O) .</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>壓力集中在軟件行業，標準普爾 500 軟件和服務指數（.SPLRCIS）在短短一週多的時間內暴跌 15%。對人工智能顛覆的擔憂因軟件巨頭微軟（MSFT.O）發佈的令人失望的財報而加劇。</p>
</div><p>The fallout for software underscores how investors are increasingly trying to determine winners and losers from AI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>軟件行業的後果凸顯了投資者越來越試圖確定人工智能的贏家和輸家。</p>
</div><p>“Before, it was ‘AI lifted all ships,’” said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at Manulife John Hancock Investments. “Now, there are concerns that this massive acceleration in the technology space could cause other businesses to not see the kind of growth rate they did before.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“以前是 ‘人工智能提升了所有船隻’，” Manulife John Hancock Investments 的共同首席投資策略師馬修·米斯金表示。“現在，人們擔心這一技術領域的巨大加速可能導致其他企業無法實現之前的增長率。”</p>
</div><p>The coming week will feature reports in the software industry from AppLovin (APP.O) and Datadog (DDOG.O) . Results are also due from high-profile companies including Coca-Cola (KO.N) , Cisco Systems (CSCO.O) and McDonald’s (MCD.N) as fourth-quarter earnings season winds down.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即將到來的一週將有來自 AppLovin（APP.O）和 Datadog（DDOG.O）的軟件行業報告。隨着第四季度財報季的結束，知名公司如可口可樂（KO.N）、思科系統（CSCO.O）和麥當勞（MCD.N）也將發佈業績。</p>
</div><p>EMPLOYMENT, INFLATION DATA ON TAP Monthly reports on employment and consumer prices will be released after both were pushed back slightly due to the recently ended three-day government shutdown. January’s nonfarm payrolls report, out on Wednesday, is expected to show an increase of 70,000 jobs, according to a Reuters poll. Investors are trying to assess whether weakening in the labor market has tapered off. While the Federal Reserve cited stabilization in the jobs market as it held interest rates steady last month, a survey on Thursday showed layoffs announced by U.S. employers surged in January.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就業和通脹數據即將發佈，月度就業和消費者價格報告將在因最近結束的三天政府停擺而略微推遲後發佈。根據路透社的調查，預計週三發佈的 1 月份非農就業報告將顯示增加 70,000 個就業崗位。投資者正在評估勞動力市場的疲軟是否已經減緩。儘管美聯儲在上個月維持利率不變時提到就業市場的穩定，但週四的一項調查顯示，美國僱主宣佈的裁員在 1 月份激增。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, inflation remains “somewhat elevated” in the view of the Fed, with the January consumer price index due on Friday offering the latest insight into such trends. With the Fed describing diminished risks to both inflation and employment, markets are expecting the central bank to hold off on further interest rate cuts until its June meeting. By that point, President Donald Trump’s newly nominated Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, could be in charge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，美聯儲認為通脹仍然 “略高”，1 月份的消費者價格指數將在週五發佈，提供最新的趨勢洞察。由於美聯儲描述了通脹和就業風險的降低，市場預計中央銀行將在 6 月會議之前暫停進一步的降息。到那時，唐納德·特朗普總統新任命的美聯儲主席凱文·沃什可能會掌權。</p>
</div><p>After the central bank cut rates at the end of last year, Fed fund futures have continued to price in roughly two further quarter-percentage-point cuts by December, expectations that generally held in the wake of the announcement of Warsh’s nomination late last month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在中央銀行去年年底降息後，美聯儲基金期貨繼續預計到 12 月將再降約兩個四分之一百分點的利率，這一預期在沃什上個月末被提名後普遍保持不變。</p>
</div><p>“Rate expectations have been remarkably stable over the last couple of weeks,” Kourkafas said. “We’ll see if any either weakness in the labor market data or any surprising cool-down in inflation accelerates a bit the timeline for when the market thinks the next rate cut may be delivered.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“利率預期在過去幾周內一直相當穩定，” 庫爾卡法斯表示。“我們將看看勞動力市場數據的任何疲軟或通脹的任何意外降温是否會加速市場認為下一次降息可能會到來的時間表。”</p>
</div>

Wall St Week Ahead-Tech stock shakeout clouds market ahead of economic data deluge

- 美股週五反彈，道指首次突破 50,000 點，芯片股領漲。  
- 軟件股因 AI 影響大幅下跌，投資者對市場動向保持警惕。  
- 下週將發佈就業和消費價格報告，市場關注經濟健康狀況。

Reuters

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華爾街下週展望：科技股的動盪在經濟數據即將大量發佈之前給市場帶來了不確定性