<p>隨着比特幣價格進一步跌破近期成本基準，弱勢投資者正在被迫離場。然而，聰明資金可能只是重新調整，而不是撤退。</p>
<p>隨着比特幣 [BTC] 從 126,000 美元的峯值回落近 40-50% 至 70,000 美元區間，損失實現加速，導致恐慌驅動的拋售。零售和短期持有者主導了這一拋售，隨着強制平倉在衍生品市場蔓延，他們紛紛以虧損拋售。</p>
<p>恐慌加劇，恐懼與貪婪指數也降至 5-20。同時，流動性減少，加劇了下行波動。</p>
<p>市場反應表現為深度壓縮和急劇的下跌影線。儘管如此，逢低買入和機構吸納作為對策出現，稍微穩定了市場情緒，而交易者仍然保持防禦性看空。</p>
<h2>短期持有者供應收縮，新的需求減弱</h2>
<p>短期持有者的動態現在延續了之前的拋售和鯨魚分歧階段。</p>
<p>最初，在週期末的反彈中，短期持有者的供應擴大，接近 800 萬 BTC，因投機需求激增。然而，隨着價格回落至 60,000-70,000 美元區間，隨之而來的是拋售。供應也穩步收縮，反映出強制退出和損失實現。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/HAl7hhiWQAADaRe-scaled.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/HAl7hhiWQAADaRe-scaled.jpeg"/></p>
<p>來源：Joao Wedson/ X</p>
<p>與此同時，90 天淨頭寸變化深度轉為負值，週期內的回撤接近-150 萬至-200 萬 BTC。</p>
<p>這些發展表明新進入者的參與度正在減弱。零售積累停滯，而處於虧損狀態的持有者則降低風險。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/HAl7gVSacAILr9i-scaled.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/HAl7gVSacAILr9i-scaled.png"/></p>
<p>來源：Joao Wedson/ X</p>
<p>然而，市場流動性在這一撤出過程中也變得稀薄。沒有新的資金流入，上行延續失去了結構性支持。相反，數據似乎指向吸納和基礎建設。因此，恢復現在依賴於新需求、改善的情緒和持續的正淨頭寸。</p>
<p>在之前的供應收縮和壓力流動的基礎上，成本基準壓力仍然是核心驅動因素。在撰寫本文時，比特幣的估值剛剛超過 69,000 美元。由於短期持有者的實現價格保持在約 92,000-92,500 美元，最近的買家已處於虧損狀態。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/BTC-Realized-Price-STH-MVRV-STH-scaled.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/BTC-Realized-Price-STH-MVRV-STH-scaled.png"/></p>
<p>來源：CryptoQuant</p>
<p>隨着這一差距的擴大，盈利能力進一步壓縮。短期持有者的 MVRV 滑落至約 0.75-0.78，確認了深度未實現的損失。隨着處於虧損狀態的持有者降低風險，賣壓隨之而來。市場情緒也因這一壓力而減弱。</p>
<p>歷史上，這種低於 1.0 的 MVRV 區域標誌着洗盤階段。因此，穩定現在將依賴於 MVRV 恢復至 1.0 以及價格重新奪回成本基準。如果損失流動減弱而價格穩定，拋售可能會耗盡，從而允許結構逐漸重建。</p>
<h2>零售樂觀與鯨魚謹慎相碰撞</h2>
<p>鯨魚的持倉似乎也在強化結構性轉變。隨着比特幣在經歷重大損失實現後穩定在 69,000 美元附近，鯨魚與零售的 Delta 飆升至 0.8 以上——這表明大型玩家在關閉多頭的同時開啓了空頭。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/HAkbnnsWAAAUdqm-scaled.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/HAkbnnsWAAAUdqm-scaled.jpeg"/></p>
<p>來源：X</p>
<p>這一輪換髮生在成本基準壓縮和上行動能減弱之後。鯨魚旨在對沖風險並推動整合，而不是追逐反彈。</p>
<p>與此同時，零售資金流仍然保持方向性多頭，受到逢低買入樂觀情緒和反彈預期的驅動。這種分歧加大了持倉不平衡。</p>
<p>隨着聰明資金在強勢中降低風險，波動性壓縮，上行跟進減弱。因此，市場結構傾向於區間形成，強化了短期整合的格局。</p>
<hr/>
<h2>最後思考</h2>
<ul>
<li>隨着短期持有者供應收縮和成本基準壓力加深，零售拋售正在加速。</li>
<li>鯨魚對沖和在弱勢中建立空頭頭寸暗示了整合風險，使比特幣面臨最後一次下行流動性掃蕩的脆弱。</li>
</ul>

<p>比特幣正經歷顯著的價格修正，從最高點的 126,000 美元下跌近 40-50%，降至約 70,000 美元。這導致零售和短期持有者出現拋售，而機構投資者似乎在吸收這一下跌。恐懼與貪婪指數大幅下滑，表明市場恐慌加劇。短期持有者的供應正在收縮，市場流動性也在減弱，這可能會阻礙復甦。鯨魚的持倉表明謹慎的態度，大型玩家在對沖風險。總體而言，比特幣的復甦現在依賴於需求的恢復和市場情緒的改善</p>

<p>As Bitcoin slides deeper below recent cost bases, weak hands are capitulating. However, smart money might just be repositioning, rather than retreating.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着比特幣價格進一步跌破近期成本基準，弱勢投資者正在被迫離場。然而，聰明資金可能只是重新調整，而不是撤退。</p>
</div><p>Loss realization accelerated as Bitcoin [BTC] corrected by nearly 40–50% from its $126,000 peak to the $70,000-zone in the recent days, triggering fear-driven distribution. Retail and Short-Term Holders led the capitulation, dumping into losses as long liquidations cascaded across derivatives markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着比特幣 [BTC] 從 126,000 美元的峯值回落近 40-50% 至 70,000 美元區間，損失實現加速，導致恐慌驅動的拋售。零售和短期持有者主導了這一拋售，隨着強制平倉在衍生品市場蔓延，他們紛紛以虧損拋售。</p>
</div><p>Panic intensified as the Fear &amp; Greed Index sank to 5–20 too. All while liquidity thinned and amplified downside volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>恐慌加劇，恐懼與貪婪指數也降至 5-20。同時，流動性減少，加劇了下行波動。</p>
</div><p>Markets reacted with compressed depth and sharp downward wicks. Still, dip accumulation and institutional absorption emerged as countermeasures, stabilizing the sentiment slightly while traders remained defensively bearish.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場反應表現為深度壓縮和急劇的下跌影線。儘管如此，逢低買入和機構吸納作為對策出現，稍微穩定了市場情緒，而交易者仍然保持防禦性看空。</p>
</div><h2>Short-Term holder supply contracts as new demand fades</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>短期持有者供應收縮，新的需求減弱</h2>
</div><p>Short-term holder dynamics have now extended the prior capitulation and whale divergence phase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>短期持有者的動態現在延續了之前的拋售和鯨魚分歧階段。</p>
</div><p>Initially, the STH supply expanded during the late-cycle rally, peaking near 8 million BTC as speculative demand surged. However, as the price corrected towards the $60,000–$70,000 band, distribution followed. The supply contracted steadily too, reflecting forced exits and loss realization.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最初，在週期末的反彈中，短期持有者的供應擴大，接近 800 萬 BTC，因投機需求激增。然而，隨着價格回落至 60,000-70,000 美元區間，隨之而來的是拋售。供應也穩步收縮，反映出強制退出和損失實現。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/HAl7hhiWQAADaRe-scaled.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/HAl7hhiWQAADaRe-scaled.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Source: Joao Wedson/ X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：Joao Wedson/ X</p>
</div><p>Simultaneously, the 90-day net position change flipped deeply negative, with drawdowns nearing -1.5 million to -2 million BTC across cycles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，90 天淨頭寸變化深度轉為負值，週期內的回撤接近-150 萬至-200 萬 BTC。</p>
</div><p>These developments signaled fading participation from new entrants. Retail accumulation stalled while underwater holders de-risked themselves.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些發展表明新進入者的參與度正在減弱。零售積累停滯，而處於虧損狀態的持有者則降低風險。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/HAl7gVSacAILr9i-scaled.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/HAl7gVSacAILr9i-scaled.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Joao Wedson/ X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：Joao Wedson/ X</p>
</div><p>That’s not all though as market liquidity thinned alongside this withdrawal. Without fresh inflows, upside continuation lost structural support. Instead, the data seemed to point to absorption and base-building. Hence, recovery now hinges on renewed demand, improved sentiment, and sustained positive net positioning.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，市場流動性在這一撤出過程中也變得稀薄。沒有新的資金流入，上行延續失去了結構性支持。相反，數據似乎指向吸納和基礎建設。因此，恢復現在依賴於新需求、改善的情緒和持續的正淨頭寸。</p>
</div><p>Building on the prior supply contraction and distress flows, cost-basis stress remains the core driver. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was valued at just above $69,000. Since the STH realized price has been holding at around $92,000–$92,500, recent buyers have been left underwater.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在之前的供應收縮和壓力流動的基礎上，成本基準壓力仍然是核心驅動因素。在撰寫本文時，比特幣的估值剛剛超過 69,000 美元。由於短期持有者的實現價格保持在約 92,000-92,500 美元，最近的買家已處於虧損狀態。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/BTC-Realized-Price-STH-MVRV-STH-scaled.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/BTC-Realized-Price-STH-MVRV-STH-scaled.png"/></p>
<p>Source: CryptoQuant</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：CryptoQuant</p>
</div><p>As this gap widened, the profitability compressed further. The STH-MVRV slid to about 0.75–0.78, confirming deep unrealized losses. Selling pressure followed as underwater holders de-risked themselves. Market sentiment weakened alongside this stress too.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着這一差距的擴大，盈利能力進一步壓縮。短期持有者的 MVRV 滑落至約 0.75-0.78，確認了深度未實現的損失。隨着處於虧損狀態的持有者降低風險，賣壓隨之而來。市場情緒也因這一壓力而減弱。</p>
</div><p>Historically, such sub-1.0 MVRV zones mark washout phases. Thus, stabilization will now depend on the MVRV recovering towards 1.0 and the price reclaiming the cost basis. If loss flows taper while the price bases, capitulation could exhaust itself, allowing structure to rebuild gradually.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歷史上，這種低於 1.0 的 MVRV 區域標誌着洗盤階段。因此，穩定現在將依賴於 MVRV 恢復至 1.0 以及價格重新奪回成本基準。如果損失流動減弱而價格穩定，拋售可能會耗盡，從而允許結構逐漸重建。</p>
</div><h2>Retail optimism collides with whale caution</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>零售樂觀與鯨魚謹慎相碰撞</h2>
</div><p>Whale positioning seemed to be reinforcing the structural shift too. As BTC stabilized near $69,000 after heavy loss realization, the whale vs. retail Delta spiked above 0.8 – A sign that large players have been closing longs while opening shorts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鯨魚的持倉似乎也在強化結構性轉變。隨着比特幣在經歷重大損失實現後穩定在 69,000 美元附近，鯨魚與零售的 Delta 飆升至 0.8 以上——這表明大型玩家在關閉多頭的同時開啓了空頭。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/HAkbnnsWAAAUdqm-scaled.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/HAkbnnsWAAAUdqm-scaled.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Source: X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：X</p>
</div><p>This rotation followed cost-basis compression and weakening upside momentum. Whales aimed to hedge exposure and engineer consolidation, rather than chase recovery.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一輪換髮生在成本基準壓縮和上行動能減弱之後。鯨魚旨在對沖風險並推動整合，而不是追逐反彈。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, retail flows remained directionally long, driven by dip-buy optimism and rebound expectations. Such a divergence widened the positioning imbalance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，零售資金流仍然保持方向性多頭，受到逢低買入樂觀情緒和反彈預期的驅動。這種分歧加大了持倉不平衡。</p>
</div><p>As smart money de-risked into strength, volatility compressed and upside follow-through weakened. Consequently, market structure tilted towards range formation, reinforcing a near-term consolidation regime.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着聰明資金在強勢中降低風險，波動性壓縮，上行跟進減弱。因此，市場結構傾向於區間形成，強化了短期整合的格局。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2>Final Thoughts</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最後思考</h2>
</div><ul>
<li>Retail capitulation has been accelerating as STH supply contracts and cost-basis stress deepened.</li>
<li>Whale hedging and short positioning into weakness hinted at consolidation risk, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable to one final downside liquidity sweep.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>隨着短期持有者供應收縮和成本基準壓力加深，零售拋售正在加速。</li>
<li>鯨魚對沖和在弱勢中建立空頭頭寸暗示了整合風險，使比特幣面臨最後一次下行流動性掃蕩的脆弱。</li>
</ul>
</div>

All about Bitcoin and its final downside test before price recovery

- 比特幣近期從 $126,000 下跌至 $70,000，導致零售和短期持有者加速拋售。  
- 市場流動性降低，鯨魚在加強對沖，零售流動性則依然看多。  
- 當前比特幣價格略高於 $69,000，市場結構傾向於區間整理。

全面解析比特幣及其在價格回升前的最後一次下行測試