<p>在過去 15 年中，最好的投資策略就是簡單地買入並持有 “七大巨頭”。這就是這麼簡單。我的前提是，這種局面現在已經結束，我們正進入一個新的局面，新的贏家將會出現。</p>
<p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.topgunfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/sc-2026-02-07T215702.821-1024x451.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="451" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.topgunfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/sc-2026-02-07T215702.821-1024x451.png"/></p>
<p>讓我們先來看一下市場動態。在過去的 14 個半星期（自 2025 年 10 月 29 日星期三以來），七大巨頭的表現嚴重不佳（-7.69%），而標準普爾 500 指數的其他股票表現出色（RSP: +6.20%）。整體來看，標準普爾 500 指數的淨結果基本持平（+0.60%）。我還在上面的圖表中包含了美元（UUP: -3.05%）、標準普爾金屬與礦業板塊（XME: +24.62%）和標準普爾消費品板塊（XLP: +12.13%）的表現。</p>
<p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.topgunfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/HAkQMqdXsAA4KTC.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="960" height="261" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.topgunfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/HAkQMqdXsAA4KTC.png"/></p>
<p>雖然多頭在慶祝 52 周高點的數量眾多和 52 周低點的數量稀少，但這些都是在標準普爾中權重較小的小型股票。沒有七大巨頭參與，市值加權的標準普爾很難再進一步上漲，因為它們佔據了約 35% 的市值。</p>
<p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.topgunfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/sc-2026-02-07T220347.583-1024x451.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="451" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.topgunfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/sc-2026-02-07T220347.583-1024x451.png"/></p>
<p>同樣值得注意的是，自 10 月 29 日以來，標準普爾不同板塊之間的回報差異巨大。科技和通信服務（包括特斯拉和谷歌）表現明顯不佳，而能源、消費品、工業和醫療保健則表現領先。</p>
<p>這意味着什麼？</p>
<p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.topgunfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Picture11-42-1-1024x738.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.topgunfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Picture11-42-1-1024x738.webp"/></p>
<p>我認為 Crescat Capital 的首席執行官 Kevin Smith 在他 1 月 31 日的信中説得很到位：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>我們相信，我們正處於長期美元週期第三次貶值浪潮的邊緣。第一次浪潮發生在大蕭條期間，當時富蘭克林·D·羅斯福總統於 1933 年 4 月 5 日發佈了 6102 號行政命令，要求美國人於 1933 年 5 月 1 日前將大部分私人持有的黃金交給美聯儲。隨後，他於 1934 年 1 月 31 日正式將美元貶值，將黃金價格從每盎司 20.67 美元提高至 35 美元。第二次主要浪潮始於 1971 年 8 月 15 日。當時理查德·尼克松總統宣佈關閉 “黃金窗口”，結束了美元與黃金的直接可兑換性以及佈雷頓森林固定匯率體系。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>這一論點整合了本博客開頭總結的所有表現數據。正如我們所指出的，美元（UUP）下跌了 3.05%，而標準普爾金屬與礦業板塊上漲了 24.62%，科技（XLK）和通信服務（XLC）則表現不佳。換句話説，隨着美元承壓，投資者正在從數字資產轉向實物資產，因為自 1971 年 8 月 15 日尼克松切斷與金本位最後聯繫以來，全球法定貨幣秩序正在解體。在這個新局面中，舊的公式（MAGS）正在被新的公式取代：實物資產 &gt; 數字資產。</p>
<p>能源、工業、消費品和醫療保健的優異表現也很好地契合了這一框架。能源是一種實物資產，而工業則是將實物資產從地球中提取並轉化為推動世界運轉的基礎設施。消費品和醫療保健是防禦性板塊，投資者在這一過渡期也在轉向這些領域。</p>
<p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.topgunfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/sc-2026-02-07T222544.911-1024x451.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="451" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.topgunfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/sc-2026-02-07T222544.911-1024x451.png"/></p>
<p>如果不提及貴金屬的優異表現，我將感到遺憾，這也符合這一框架。歷史上，黃金和白銀支撐着紙幣，而我們現在正處於迴歸這種貨幣觀念的過程中。你可以看到，中央銀行儲備中黃金的比例在增加，而美元的比例在減少。</p>
<p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.topgunfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Picture18-32-1.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.topgunfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Picture18-32-1.webp"/></p>
<p>通過買入並持有七大巨頭實現顯著超額收益的時代已經結束。人工智能是未來一個重要的因素，但主導因素是基於法定貨幣的全球經濟秩序的解體。大多數投資者仍停留在之前的範式中，而少數人理解新的範式。那些理解的人將在未來幾年賺到真正的錢，而其他人將被拋在後面。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>PYPL 太便宜了，將回報耐心的股東</p>
<p>哦，天哪！為什麼這個季度可能是一個轉折點</p>
<p>CMG 仍然被定價為成長股，但它已經沒有任何增長了</p>

<p>這篇文章討論了投資策略從數字資產轉向實物資產的變化，表明之前 “七大奇蹟” 股票的成功已經結束。最近的表現數據顯示，雖然 “七大奇蹟” 表現不佳，但能源、消費品和醫療保健等行業卻蓬勃發展。作者引用了凱文·史密斯對美國美元可能出現第三次貶值浪潮的看法，暗示投資者正在轉向實物資產，因為法定貨幣體系正在崩潰。文章強調了適應這一新經濟體制對於未來投資成功的重要性</p>

<p>For more than 15 years, the best strategy which would have made you a fortune was simply to buy and hold The Magnificent 7. It was that easy. My premise is that that regime is now over and we are entering a new one with a new set of winners.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去 15 年中，最好的投資策略就是簡單地買入並持有 “七大巨頭”。這就是這麼簡單。我的前提是，這種局面現在已經結束，我們正進入一個新的局面，新的贏家將會出現。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.topgunfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/sc-2026-02-07T215702.821-1024x451.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.topgunfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/sc-2026-02-07T215702.821-1024x451.png"/></p>
<p>Let’s start with the tape. Over the last 14 1/2 weeks (since Wednesday October 29, 2025), The Magnificent 7 have badly underperformed (-7.69%) while the rest of the S&amp;P 500 has performed superbly (RSP: +6.20%). The net result for the S&amp;P as a whole has essentially been flat (+0.60%). I have also included the performance of The Dollar (UUP: -3.05%), The S&amp;P Metals &amp; Mining Sector (XME: +24.62%) and The S&amp;P Consumer Staples Sector (XLP: +12.13%) in the chart above.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>讓我們先來看一下市場動態。在過去的 14 個半星期（自 2025 年 10 月 29 日星期三以來），七大巨頭的表現嚴重不佳（-7.69%），而標準普爾 500 指數的其他股票表現出色（RSP: +6.20%）。整體來看，標準普爾 500 指數的淨結果基本持平（+0.60%）。我還在上面的圖表中包含了美元（UUP: -3.05%）、標準普爾金屬與礦業板塊（XME: +24.62%）和標準普爾消費品板塊（XLP: +12.13%）的表現。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.topgunfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/HAkQMqdXsAA4KTC.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.topgunfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/HAkQMqdXsAA4KTC.png"/></p>
<p>While bulls are celebrating the large number of 52-week highs and low number of 52-week lows, those are smaller stocks with small weightings in the S&amp;P. It will be difficult for the market cap weighted S&amp;P to go much higher without The Magnificent 7 participating because they make up ~35% of its market cap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然多頭在慶祝 52 周高點的數量眾多和 52 周低點的數量稀少，但這些都是在標準普爾中權重較小的小型股票。沒有七大巨頭參與，市值加權的標準普爾很難再進一步上漲，因為它們佔據了約 35% 的市值。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.topgunfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/sc-2026-02-07T220347.583-1024x451.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.topgunfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/sc-2026-02-07T220347.583-1024x451.png"/></p>
<p>It’s also interesting to note the enormous dispersion of returns between the different sectors of the S&amp;P since October 29. Tech and Communications Services (which includes TSLA and GOOG/GOOGL) have notably underperformed while Energy, Staples, Industrials and Health Care have led.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>同樣值得注意的是，自 10 月 29 日以來，標準普爾不同板塊之間的回報差異巨大。科技和通信服務（包括特斯拉和谷歌）表現明顯不佳，而能源、消費品、工業和醫療保健則表現領先。</p>
</div><p>What does it all mean?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這意味着什麼？</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.topgunfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Picture11-42-1-1024x738.webp" alt="" original-src="https://www.topgunfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Picture11-42-1-1024x738.webp"/></p>
<p>I think Kevin Smith, CEO of Crescat Capital – one of the best performing hedge funds in the world at the moment – nailed it in his January 31 letter:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我認為 Crescat Capital 的首席執行官 Kevin Smith 在他 1 月 31 日的信中説得很到位：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>We believe we are on the cusp of the third devaluation wave of the long-term US dollar cycle. The first wave was during the Great Depression, when President Franklin D. Roosevelt issued Executive Order 6102 on April 5, 1933, requiring Americans to surrender most of their privately held gold to the Federal Reserve by May 1, 1933. He then officially devalued the dollar by raising the gold price from $20.67 to $35 per ounce on January 31, 1934. The second major wave began on August 15, 1971. That was when President Richard Nixon announced the closing of the “gold window”, which ended both the direct convertibility of the U.S. dollar to gold for foreign governments as well as the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>我們相信，我們正處於長期美元週期第三次貶值浪潮的邊緣。第一次浪潮發生在大蕭條期間，當時富蘭克林·D·羅斯福總統於 1933 年 4 月 5 日發佈了 6102 號行政命令，要求美國人於 1933 年 5 月 1 日前將大部分私人持有的黃金交給美聯儲。隨後，他於 1934 年 1 月 31 日正式將美元貶值，將黃金價格從每盎司 20.67 美元提高至 35 美元。第二次主要浪潮始於 1971 年 8 月 15 日。當時理查德·尼克松總統宣佈關閉 “黃金窗口”，結束了美元與黃金的直接可兑換性以及佈雷頓森林固定匯率體系。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>This thesis integrates all of the performance data summarized at the start of this blog. As we noted, the dollar (UUP) is -3.05% while The S&amp;P Metals and Mining Sector is +24.62% while Technology (XLK) and Communications Services (XLC) underperform. In other words, investors are rotating out of digital assets into hard assets as the dollar comes under pressure as the global fiat monetary order that has existed since Nixon removed the last link to the gold standard on August 15, 1971 unravels. In this new regime, the old formula (MAGS) is being replaced by a new one: Hard Assets &gt; Digital Assets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一論點整合了本博客開頭總結的所有表現數據。正如我們所指出的，美元（UUP）下跌了 3.05%，而標準普爾金屬與礦業板塊上漲了 24.62%，科技（XLK）和通信服務（XLC）則表現不佳。換句話説，隨着美元承壓，投資者正在從數字資產轉向實物資產，因為自 1971 年 8 月 15 日尼克松切斷與金本位最後聯繫以來，全球法定貨幣秩序正在解體。在這個新局面中，舊的公式（MAGS）正在被新的公式取代：實物資產 &gt; 數字資產。</p>
</div><p>The outperformance of Energy, Industrials, Consumer Staples and Health Care also fits nicely into this framework. Energy is a hard asset and you need Industrials to get the hard assets out of the earth and turn them into the infrastructure that makes the world go. Consumer Staples and Health Care are defensive sectors that investors are rotating into as well during this transitionary period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>能源、工業、消費品和醫療保健的優異表現也很好地契合了這一框架。能源是一種實物資產，而工業則是將實物資產從地球中提取並轉化為推動世界運轉的基礎設施。消費品和醫療保健是防禦性板塊，投資者在這一過渡期也在轉向這些領域。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.topgunfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/sc-2026-02-07T222544.911-1024x451.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.topgunfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/sc-2026-02-07T222544.911-1024x451.png"/></p>
<p>I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the outperformance of everything by the precious metals which also fits into the framework. Historically, gold and silver backed paper money and we are now in the process of reverting back to that conception of money. You can see this in the increasing proportion of gold and decreasing proportion of the dollar comprising central bank reserves.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果不提及貴金屬的優異表現，我將感到遺憾，這也符合這一框架。歷史上，黃金和白銀支撐着紙幣，而我們現在正處於迴歸這種貨幣觀念的過程中。你可以看到，中央銀行儲備中黃金的比例在增加，而美元的比例在減少。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.topgunfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Picture18-32-1.webp" alt="" original-src="https://www.topgunfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Picture18-32-1.webp"/></p>
<p>The days of achieving significant outperformance by buying and holding The Magnificent 7 are over. Artificial Intelligence is an important vector going forward but the dominant one is the unraveling of the fiat money based global economic order. Most investors are stuck in the previous paradigm while few understand the new one. Those who do will make the real money in the years ahead while the rest will be left behind.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通過買入並持有七大巨頭實現顯著超額收益的時代已經結束。人工智能是未來一個重要的因素，但主導因素是基於法定貨幣的全球經濟秩序的解體。大多數投資者仍停留在之前的範式中，而少數人理解新的範式。那些理解的人將在未來幾年賺到真正的錢，而其他人將被拋在後面。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>PYPL Is Too Cheap And Will Reward Patient Shareholders</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>PYPL 太便宜了，將回報耐心的股東</p>
</div><p>Oh SNAP! Why This Quarter Might Be An Inflection Point</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>哦，天哪！為什麼這個季度可能是一個轉折點</p>
</div><p>CMG Is Still Priced Like A Growth Stock – But It No Longer Has Any Growth</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CMG 仍然被定價為成長股，但它已經沒有任何增長了</p>
</div>

硬資產優於數字資產：解讀新的宏觀體制