<p>財報季有時會很艱難。這次我們看到多個 AI 股票 的表現不佳。<strong>超微半導體</strong>（ AMD +8.32%）和 <strong>微軟</strong>（ MSFT +2.00%）的股票在最近的季度更新後大幅下跌。谷歌母公司 <strong>字母表</strong>（ GOOG 2.48%)( GOOGL 2.53%）的股票儘管報告了令人印象深刻的業績，但仍然小幅下滑。</p>
<p>亞馬遜( AMZN 5.55%) 現在也加入了這個行列。該電商和雲服務巨頭的股票在週五因公司週四晚間發佈的第四季度更新而下跌了大約 6%。不過，我有一個預測：亞馬遜的拋售將為 2026 年的巨大反彈鋪平道路。</p>
<p>展開</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL0FNWk4ucG5nJnc9MTI4?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="亞馬遜股票報價" width="80" height="80" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL0FNWk4ucG5nJnc9MTI4"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: AMZN</h2>
<p>亞馬遜</p>
<p>今日變動</p>
<p>(-5.55%) $-12.37</p>
<p>當前價格</p>
<p>$210.32</p>
<h3>關鍵數據點</h3>
<p>市值</p>
<p>$2.2T</p>
<p>日內區間</p>
<p>$200.31 - $211.44</p>
<p>52 周區間</p>
<p>$161.38 - $258.60</p>
<p>成交量</p>
<p>131K</p>
<p>平均成交量</p>
<p>44M</p>
<p>毛利率</p>
<p>50.29%</p>
<h2>經典的市場過度反應</h2>
<p>亞馬遜在最新季度更新後的下跌有兩個原因。首先，公司未能達到華爾街的盈利預期。其次，投資者對亞馬遜預計今年的資本支出將達到 2000 億美元感到不滿，這比 2025 年的資本支出約 1320 億美元大幅增加。然而，我認為亞馬遜的拋售反映了經典的市場過度反應。</p>
<p>我們先從盈利缺口開始。確實，亞馬遜在第四季度報告的每股收益（EPS）為 1.95 美元，略低於分析師預期的 1.97 美元。但將公司的盈利數字放在上下文中來看是很重要的。亞馬遜記錄了特殊費用，導致其營業收入減少了 24 億美元。根據我的計算，這些特殊費用使公司的每股收益降低了約 0.22 美元。此外，亞馬遜報告的 2134 億美元的收入輕鬆超出了華爾街預期的 2113 億美元。</p>
<p>我懷疑更大的問題是亞馬遜對 2026 年的資本支出預測。FactSet 調查的分析師預計資本支出在 1470 億美元左右。亞馬遜的巨大支出增加是否令人擔憂？我認為並不。</p>
<p>大部分資本支出將用於亞馬遜網絡服務（AWS）。然而，亞馬遜首席執行官安迪·賈西在第四季度的財報電話會議上對此次投資增加做出了很好的解釋，他表示：“我們有非常高的需求。客户確實希望 AWS 用於核心和 AI 工作負載。”</p>
<p>當投資能夠產生良好回報時，它們並不是壞事。賈西表示，亞馬遜正在 “儘快將能力貨幣化”。他補充道：“我們在 AWS 業務中對需求信號有深刻的理解，然後將這些能力轉化為強勁的投資回報率。我們相信在這裏也會如此。” 我對亞馬遜提供卓越的投資回報率也充滿信心。</p>
<h2>亞馬遜繼續全力以赴</h2>
<p>重要的是，亞馬遜的業務在各個方面依然強勁。第四季度收入同比增長 14%。盈利同比增長 6%，如果沒有上述特殊費用，增幅會更好。</p>
<p>AWS 的勢頭在第四季度加速，收入同比飆升 24%。這一增長是亞馬遜在 13 個季度中看到的最強勁的。順便提一下，AWS 在 2025 年結束時的年化收入運行率為 1420 億美元。賈西在第四季度的電話會議上觀察到：“在 1420 億美元的年化運行率上實現 24% 的同比增長，與在一個明顯更小的基礎上實現更高的百分比增長是非常不同的。”</p>
<p>也不要指望 AWS 的增長在短期內放緩。該雲服務部門的積壓訂單現在為 2440 億美元，同比增長 40%，比上一季度增長 22%。</p>
<p>亞馬遜已經成為一個廣告巨頭。第四季度廣告收入同比增長 22%，達到 213 億美元。公司電商平台上的贊助產品廣告尤其盈利。Prime Video 廣告現在也成為收入增長的重要貢獻者。</p>
<p>公司的電商業務表現良好，特別是在國際市場。Profitero 最近進行的一項研究發現，亞馬遜連續第九年成為美國最低成本零售商，價格平均比其他頂級在線零售商低 14%。亞馬遜繼續加快交付速度，從而提高客户的購物頻率。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NTUwOTAvYW1hem9uLXRydWNrLmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="3012" height="2008" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NTUwOTAvYW1hem9uLXRydWNrLmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：亞馬遜。</p>
<h2>短期拋售，長期護城河</h2>
<p>亞馬遜股價的回調在過去為投資者創造了絕佳的買入機會。我相信這將再次發生，股票將在最新下跌後強勁反彈。亞馬遜是我所知道的 護城河最寬的股票，這部分得益於其低價結構和龐大的運營規模。長期的護城河遠比短期的拋售重要。</p>

亞馬遜財報，一站看懂！

電子商務 ETF - GlobalX

雲計算 ETF - GlobalX

亞馬遜

AMZW

亞馬遜每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

AMZZ

標普零售指數 ETF - SPDR

在線零售 ETF - ProShares

線上零售 ETF - Amplify

零售業 ETF - VanEck Vectors

<p>亞馬遜的股價在發佈第四季度財報後下跌了約 6%，未能達到華爾街的每股收益預期，並宣佈 2026 年資本支出將大幅增加。儘管如此，該公司的收入同比增長了 14%，AWS 的收入激增了 24%。分析師認為此次拋售是市場的過度反應，對亞馬遜的長期增長潛力，特別是在 AWS 和廣告領域，依然充滿信心。預測認為，這一下跌將為 2026 年的大幅反彈奠定基礎，因為亞馬遜的業務基本面依然強勁</p>

<p>Earnings seasons can sometimes be rough. We're seeing it this time around with several AI stocks. <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>' ( AMD +8.32%) and <strong>Microsoft</strong>'s ( MSFT +2.00%) shares plunged after its recent quarterly update. Google parent <strong>Alphabet</strong>'s ( GOOG 2.48%)( GOOGL 2.53%) stock declined moderately despite reporting impressive results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>財報季有時會很艱難。這次我們看到多個 AI 股票 的表現不佳。<strong>超微半導體</strong>（ AMD +8.32%）和 <strong>微軟</strong>（ MSFT +2.00%）的股票在最近的季度更新後大幅下跌。谷歌母公司 <strong>字母表</strong>（ GOOG 2.48%)( GOOGL 2.53%）的股票儘管報告了令人印象深刻的業績，但仍然小幅下滑。</p>
</div><p>Amazon( AMZN 5.55%) has now joined the club. Shares of the e-commerce and cloud services giant fell roughly 6% on Friday following the company's fourth-quarter update Thursday evening. I have a prediction, though: Amazon's sell-off will set up a monster rebound in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亞馬遜( AMZN 5.55%) 現在也加入了這個行列。該電商和雲服務巨頭的股票在週五因公司週四晚間發佈的第四季度更新而下跌了大約 6%。不過，我有一個預測：亞馬遜的拋售將為 2026 年的巨大反彈鋪平道路。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展開</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL0FNWk4ucG5nJnc9MTI4" alt="Amazon Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FAMZN.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: AMZN</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NASDAQ: AMZN</h2>
</div><p>Amazon</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亞馬遜</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日變動</p>
</div><p>(-5.55%) $-12.37</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(-5.55%) $-12.37</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當前價格</p>
</div><p>$210.32</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$210.32</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>關鍵數據點</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$2.2T</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$2.2T</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日內區間</p>
</div><p>$200.31 - $211.44</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$200.31 - $211.44</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周區間</p>
</div><p>$161.38 - $258.60</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$161.38 - $258.60</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>131K</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>131K</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>44M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>44M</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>50.29%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>50.29%</p>
</div><h2>A classic market overreaction</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>經典的市場過度反應</h2>
</div><p>Two factors caused Amazon's decline following its latest quarterly update. First, the company missed Wall Street's earnings estimate. Second investors didn't like that Amazon forecasts capital expenditures of $200 billion this year, a big jump from the 2025 capex of around $132 billion. However, I think Amazon's sell-off reflects a classic market overreaction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亞馬遜在最新季度更新後的下跌有兩個原因。首先，公司未能達到華爾街的盈利預期。其次，投資者對亞馬遜預計今年的資本支出將達到 2000 億美元感到不滿，這比 2025 年的資本支出約 1320 億美元大幅增加。然而，我認為亞馬遜的拋售反映了經典的市場過度反應。</p>
</div><p>Let's start with the earnings miss. To be sure, Amazon's reported earnings per share (EPS) of $1.95 in Q4 was slightly lower than the $1.97 expected by analysts. But it's important to put the company's earnings number in context. Amazon recorded special charges that reduced its operating income by $2.4 billion. By my calculations, these special charges lowered the company's EPS by around $0.22. Also, Amazon's reported revenue of $213.4 billion easily beat Wall Street's estimate of $211.3 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們先從盈利缺口開始。確實，亞馬遜在第四季度報告的每股收益（EPS）為 1.95 美元，略低於分析師預期的 1.97 美元。但將公司的盈利數字放在上下文中來看是很重要的。亞馬遜記錄了特殊費用，導致其營業收入減少了 24 億美元。根據我的計算，這些特殊費用使公司的每股收益降低了約 0.22 美元。此外，亞馬遜報告的 2134 億美元的收入輕鬆超出了華爾街預期的 2113 億美元。</p>
</div><p>I suspect the bigger issue was Amazon's projected capex for 2026. Analysts surveyed by FactSet were expecting capital expenditures in the ballpark of $147 billion. Is Amazon's massive spending increase worrisome? I don't think so.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我懷疑更大的問題是亞馬遜對 2026 年的資本支出預測。FactSet 調查的分析師預計資本支出在 1470 億美元左右。亞馬遜的巨大支出增加是否令人擔憂？我認為並不。</p>
</div><p>Most of the capex will go to Amazon Web Services (AWS). However, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy had a good explanation for the increased investments on the Q4 earnings call, stating, &#34;[W] e have very high demand. Customers really want AWS for core and AI workloads.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大部分資本支出將用於亞馬遜網絡服務（AWS）。然而，亞馬遜首席執行官安迪·賈西在第四季度的財報電話會議上對此次投資增加做出了很好的解釋，他表示：“我們有非常高的需求。客户確實希望 AWS 用於核心和 AI 工作負載。”</p>
</div><p>Investments aren't bad when they generate solid returns. Jassy said that Amazon is &#34;monetizing capacity as fast as we can install it.&#34; He added, &#34;We have deep experience understanding demand signals in the AWS business and then turning that capacity into strong return on invested capital. We are confident this will be the case here as well.&#34; I'm confident in Amazon's ability to deliver exceptional ROIC, too.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當投資能夠產生良好回報時，它們並不是壞事。賈西表示，亞馬遜正在 “儘快將能力貨幣化”。他補充道：“我們在 AWS 業務中對需求信號有深刻的理解，然後將這些能力轉化為強勁的投資回報率。我們相信在這裏也會如此。” 我對亞馬遜提供卓越的投資回報率也充滿信心。</p>
</div><h2>Amazon continues to fire on all cylinders</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>亞馬遜繼續全力以赴</h2>
</div><p>Importantly, Amazon's business remains strong on all fronts. Revenue jumped 14% year over year in Q4. Earnings rose 6% year over year and the increase would have been even better without those aforementioned special charges.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重要的是，亞馬遜的業務在各個方面依然強勁。第四季度收入同比增長 14%。盈利同比增長 6%，如果沒有上述特殊費用，增幅會更好。</p>
</div><p>AWS' momentum accelerated in Q4, with revenue soaring 24% year over year. This growth is the strongest that Amazon has seen in 13 quarters. By the way, AWS ended 2025 with an annualized revenue run rate of $142 billion. Jassy was right when he observed in the Q4 call that &#34;it's very different having 24% year-over-year growth on a $142 billion annualized run rate than to have a higher percentage growth on a meaningfully smaller base.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AWS 的勢頭在第四季度加速，收入同比飆升 24%。這一增長是亞馬遜在 13 個季度中看到的最強勁的。順便提一下，AWS 在 2025 年結束時的年化收入運行率為 1420 億美元。賈西在第四季度的電話會議上觀察到：“在 1420 億美元的年化運行率上實現 24% 的同比增長，與在一個明顯更小的基礎上實現更高的百分比增長是非常不同的。”</p>
</div><p>Don't expect AWS' growth to slow anytime soon, either. The cloud service unit's backlog is now $244 billion, up 40% year over year and 22% from the previous quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也不要指望 AWS 的增長在短期內放緩。該雲服務部門的積壓訂單現在為 2440 億美元，同比增長 40%，比上一季度增長 22%。</p>
</div><p>Amazon has become an advertising juggernaut. Ad revenue increased 22% year over year in Q4 to $21.3 billion. Sponsored product advertising on the company's e-commerce platform is especially lucrative. Prime Video ads are also now a meaningful contributor to revenue growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亞馬遜已經成為一個廣告巨頭。第四季度廣告收入同比增長 22%，達到 213 億美元。公司電商平台上的贊助產品廣告尤其盈利。Prime Video 廣告現在也成為收入增長的重要貢獻者。</p>
</div><p>The company's e-commerce business is performing well, particularly in international markets. A recent study conducted by Profitero found that Amazon was the lowest-cost retailer in the U.S. for the ninth consecutive year, with prices 14% lower on average than other top online retailers. Amazon continues to accelerate the speed of its deliveries, which boosts customers' shopping frequency.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司的電商業務表現良好，特別是在國際市場。Profitero 最近進行的一項研究發現，亞馬遜連續第九年成為美國最低成本零售商，價格平均比其他頂級在線零售商低 14%。亞馬遜繼續加快交付速度，從而提高客户的購物頻率。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NTUwOTAvYW1hem9uLXRydWNrLmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA" alt="A truck with the Amazon arrow logo on the trailer parked next to a building." original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F855090%2Famazon-truck.jpg&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Amazon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：亞馬遜。</p>
</div><h2>Short-term sell-off, long-term moats</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>短期拋售，長期護城河</h2>
</div><p>Pullbacks in Amazon's share price have created excellent buying opportunities for investors in the past. I'm confident this will happen again, with the stock rebounding strongly following its latest decline. Amazon is one of the widest-moat stocks I know, thanks in part to its low-price structure and huge scale of operations. And long-term moats are much more important than short-term sell-offs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亞馬遜股價的回調在過去為投資者創造了絕佳的買入機會。我相信這將再次發生，股票將在最新下跌後強勁反彈。亞馬遜是我所知道的 護城河最寬的股票，這部分得益於其低價結構和龐大的運營規模。長期的護城河遠比短期的拋售重要。</p>
</div>

Prediction: Amazon's Sell-Off Will Set Up a Monster Rebound in 2026

- 亞馬遜在第四季度報告後股價下跌約 6%。  
- 公司未達華爾街盈利預期，並計劃將資本支出提高至 2000 億美元。  
- 儘管短期內回調，亞馬遜的長期潛力依然強勁。

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預測：亞馬遜的拋售將為 2026 年的強勁反彈做好準備