<p>真實零售銷售，作為我最喜歡的廣泛經濟指標之一，今早更新至 12 月——仍然滯後一個月，因為在正常情況下，1 月的數據本應在本週發佈。</p>
<p>儘管如此，消費者支出約佔整個經濟的 70%，這是本月最重要的經濟報告之一，與真實個人支出一起，成為該領域的最佳衡量標準。此外，由於它們與就業之間的領先但嘈雜的關係，它們在目前尤其重要，因為就業創造即將轉向下行。</p>
<p>名義上，12 月的零售銷售與 11 月相比沒有變化，11 月經過下調修正為 +0.5%。考慮到每月價格上漲 0.3%，真實銷售下降了-0.3%。由於沒有 10 月的 CPI 報告，我們對 11 月的最好説法是，按真實值計算（下圖中的藍色），與 9 月相比銷售增長了 0.2%：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisz47g70WNV0nbgCgkS0XFM4AxzNi0a0SDeNXNo697otBAwWHfLf5LSYPPBgbkGPj2Yqx2LENW9IpcKfndcGVB62YsCX1bUd5h44dB8Figs3FKLJUBjq6UTEapJ8O40Z_CywXuUNd-Pd6l3amJMZGbghD8vI00kFqKM65LdLlmBulz4P_AjoUp9YygiBoV/s2160/IMG_2719.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2160" height="960" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisz47g70WNV0nbgCgkS0XFM4AxzNi0a0SDeNXNo697otBAwWHfLf5LSYPPBgbkGPj2Yqx2LENW9IpcKfndcGVB62YsCX1bUd5h44dB8Figs3FKLJUBjq6UTEapJ8O40Z_CywXuUNd-Pd6l3amJMZGbghD8vI00kFqKM65LdLlmBulz4P_AjoUp9YygiBoV/s2160/IMG_2719.jpeg"/></p>
<p>但如此計算，12 月的真實零售銷售較 9 月的峯值下降了-0.4%。此外，如果你相信我所相信的，即關閉避難所的臨時措施在 9 月至 11 月期間減少了約 0.2% 的消費者通脹，那麼比較結果就會變得更加糟糕。</p>
<p>請注意，上圖還顯示了更全面的真實個人商品支出指標（黃金），截至其最近的 11 月報告，確實創下了新高。</p>
<p>除此之外，真實零售銷售同比首次轉為負值，自 2024 年 9 月以來首次出現。回顧過去 75 年（儘管我不會麻煩提供長期歷史圖表），同比真實零售銷售的下降幾乎總是意味着經濟衰退（但 2023 年是明顯的例外！）：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhT7O0DdI7AIKQQSvFAal_sA8fXNH80LAc6GxAyaUsAyfvQcfgcVG2BSaaT3aAajReACQNiQOKJ0Fb3bSr5vDA6gw1DQlW7Ay347m1cN7q6r_smM2TH6kmRqpMlOp21rTdIxqTwXz9jWNCUaqABrsBTdL-94h86Ik0zXC3zR9YNwymhpyY7jKcc9KRzDaxd/s2160/IMG_2720.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2160" height="958" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhT7O0DdI7AIKQQSvFAal_sA8fXNH80LAc6GxAyaUsAyfvQcfgcVG2BSaaT3aAajReACQNiQOKJ0Fb3bSr5vDA6gw1DQlW7Ay347m1cN7q6r_smM2TH6kmRqpMlOp21rTdIxqTwXz9jWNCUaqABrsBTdL-94h86Ik0zXC3zR9YNwymhpyY7jKcc9KRzDaxd/s2160/IMG_2720.jpeg"/></p>
<p>這尤其重要，因為正如我上面所寫，消費引領就業。隨着 2025 年末同比比較惡化並現在轉為負值，不用説，這對今年初的就業形勢預示着不利。以下是同比真實銷售和真實個人商品支出（/2 以便於比較）與就業（紅色）的更新：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiodClONRDtYiiSi-tGNZgAjzJB8kVmSqe4aVkoBO-VtVApLxZInJ-0Msnlp6u4z8iQIOf_MhlF5P2KxUhHTy6pozzWZz8ChtPbsQFF6HXjqn-pkOSEqRHiPJrueL_SvNH6EQgwY33P1raGQC9sw_CfFLu3BUW3X5CjivfuZcJDVaTi02kHEXpQ6aguI-bP/s2153/IMG_2721.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2153" height="952" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiodClONRDtYiiSi-tGNZgAjzJB8kVmSqe4aVkoBO-VtVApLxZInJ-0Msnlp6u4z8iQIOf_MhlF5P2KxUhHTy6pozzWZz8ChtPbsQFF6HXjqn-pkOSEqRHiPJrueL_SvNH6EQgwY33P1raGQC9sw_CfFLu3BUW3X5CjivfuZcJDVaTi02kHEXpQ6aguI-bP/s2153/IMG_2721.jpeg"/></p>
<p>上個月我得出結論：“消費同比增長的急劇減速預示着就業的下滑，並暗示未來幾個月的就業報告不會好轉。” 本月的報告進一步證實了這一點。我們將在明天的 1 月報告中得知這一點是否屬實。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>預計避難所通脹將在接下來的幾份 CPI 報告中繼續減緩</p>
<p>12 月 JOLTS 報告顯示，儘管有一個負面的 “軟數據” 異常值，但仍在接近停滯速度的穩定狀態</p>
<p>失業救濟申請上升，但同比仍主要下降</p>

<p>經過價格上漲 0.3% 的調整後，12 月份的實際零售銷售下降了 0.3%，較 9 月份的高峰下降了 0.4%。同比來看，實際零售銷售自 2024 年 9 月以來首次轉為負值，顯示出潛在的衰退風險和不佳的就業前景。這一趨勢表明，消費正在減弱，而消費對就業的影響顯著，預示着未來幾個月的就業創造將出現下降。報告強調了零售銷售作為關鍵經濟指標的重要性，特別是在消費者支出和就業趨勢方面</p>

<p>Real retail sales, one of my favorite broad-economy indicators, was updated through December this morning — still stale by one month, as under normal circumstances January’s numbers would have been released this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>真實零售銷售，作為我最喜歡的廣泛經濟指標之一，今早更新至 12 月——仍然滯後一個月，因為在正常情況下，1 月的數據本應在本週發佈。</p>
</div><p>Still, with consumer spending being about 70% of the entire economy, this is one of the most important economic reports of the month, and along with real personal spending, the two best measures of that sector. Further, because of their leading albeit noisy relationship with employment, they are particularly important right now, with job creation on the verge of turning down.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，消費者支出約佔整個經濟的 70%，這是本月最重要的經濟報告之一，與真實個人支出一起，成為該領域的最佳衡量標準。此外，由於它們與就業之間的領先但嘈雜的關係，它們在目前尤其重要，因為就業創造即將轉向下行。</p>
</div><p>Nominally, retail sales were unchanged in December, after a downwardly revised +0.5% in November. After taking the monthly 0.3% increase in prices into account, real sales were down -0.3%. Since there was no October CPI report, the best we can say about November is that in real terms sales (blue in the graph below) were higher by 0.2% compared with September:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>名義上，12 月的零售銷售與 11 月相比沒有變化，11 月經過下調修正為 +0.5%。考慮到每月價格上漲 0.3%，真實銷售下降了-0.3%。由於沒有 10 月的 CPI 報告，我們對 11 月的最好説法是，按真實值計算（下圖中的藍色），與 9 月相比銷售增長了 0.2%：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisz47g70WNV0nbgCgkS0XFM4AxzNi0a0SDeNXNo697otBAwWHfLf5LSYPPBgbkGPj2Yqx2LENW9IpcKfndcGVB62YsCX1bUd5h44dB8Figs3FKLJUBjq6UTEapJ8O40Z_CywXuUNd-Pd6l3amJMZGbghD8vI00kFqKM65LdLlmBulz4P_AjoUp9YygiBoV/s2160/IMG_2719.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisz47g70WNV0nbgCgkS0XFM4AxzNi0a0SDeNXNo697otBAwWHfLf5LSYPPBgbkGPj2Yqx2LENW9IpcKfndcGVB62YsCX1bUd5h44dB8Figs3FKLJUBjq6UTEapJ8O40Z_CywXuUNd-Pd6l3amJMZGbghD8vI00kFqKM65LdLlmBulz4P_AjoUp9YygiBoV/s2160/IMG_2719.jpeg"/></p>
<p>But so calculated, real retail sales in December were down -0.4% from their September peak. Further, if you believe, as I do, that the shutdown shelter kludge removed about 0.2% from consumer inflation during the September-November period, then the comparison becomes similarly worse.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但如此計算，12 月的真實零售銷售較 9 月的峯值下降了-0.4%。此外，如果你相信我所相信的，即關閉避難所的臨時措施在 9 月至 11 月期間減少了約 0.2% 的消費者通脹，那麼比較結果就會變得更加糟糕。</p>
</div><p>Note that the above graph also shows the similar but more comprehensive measure of real personal spending on goods (gold), which did make a new high as of its most recent report for November.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>請注意，上圖還顯示了更全面的真實個人商品支出指標（黃金），截至其最近的 11 月報告，確實創下了新高。</p>
</div><p>Beyond that, real retail sales turned back negative YoY for the first time since September 2024. Going back 75 years (although I won’t bother with the long term historical graph), a decline in YoY real retail sales has almost always meant a recession (but both the obvious exception in 2023!):</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除此之外，真實零售銷售同比首次轉為負值，自 2024 年 9 月以來首次出現。回顧過去 75 年（儘管我不會麻煩提供長期歷史圖表），同比真實零售銷售的下降幾乎總是意味着經濟衰退（但 2023 年是明顯的例外！）：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhT7O0DdI7AIKQQSvFAal_sA8fXNH80LAc6GxAyaUsAyfvQcfgcVG2BSaaT3aAajReACQNiQOKJ0Fb3bSr5vDA6gw1DQlW7Ay347m1cN7q6r_smM2TH6kmRqpMlOp21rTdIxqTwXz9jWNCUaqABrsBTdL-94h86Ik0zXC3zR9YNwymhpyY7jKcc9KRzDaxd/s2160/IMG_2720.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhT7O0DdI7AIKQQSvFAal_sA8fXNH80LAc6GxAyaUsAyfvQcfgcVG2BSaaT3aAajReACQNiQOKJ0Fb3bSr5vDA6gw1DQlW7Ay347m1cN7q6r_smM2TH6kmRqpMlOp21rTdIxqTwXz9jWNCUaqABrsBTdL-94h86Ik0zXC3zR9YNwymhpyY7jKcc9KRzDaxd/s2160/IMG_2720.jpeg"/></p>
<p>This is particularly salient because as I wrote above consumption leads employment. With the YoY comparison deteriorating in late 2025 and now negative, needless to say this bodes poorly for employment in the early months of this year. Here is the update of YoY real sales and real personal spending on goods (/2 for scale) together with employment (red):</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這尤其重要，因為正如我上面所寫，消費引領就業。隨着 2025 年末同比比較惡化並現在轉為負值，不用説，這對今年初的就業形勢預示着不利。以下是同比真實銷售和真實個人商品支出（/2 以便於比較）與就業（紅色）的更新：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiodClONRDtYiiSi-tGNZgAjzJB8kVmSqe4aVkoBO-VtVApLxZInJ-0Msnlp6u4z8iQIOf_MhlF5P2KxUhHTy6pozzWZz8ChtPbsQFF6HXjqn-pkOSEqRHiPJrueL_SvNH6EQgwY33P1raGQC9sw_CfFLu3BUW3X5CjivfuZcJDVaTi02kHEXpQ6aguI-bP/s2153/IMG_2721.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiodClONRDtYiiSi-tGNZgAjzJB8kVmSqe4aVkoBO-VtVApLxZInJ-0Msnlp6u4z8iQIOf_MhlF5P2KxUhHTy6pozzWZz8ChtPbsQFF6HXjqn-pkOSEqRHiPJrueL_SvNH6EQgwY33P1raGQC9sw_CfFLu3BUW3X5CjivfuZcJDVaTi02kHEXpQ6aguI-bP/s2153/IMG_2721.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Last month I concluded that “This sharp deceleration in YoY growth in consumption forecast the slide in employment, and suggests that the jobs reports in the next several months will get no better.” This month’s report adds to the evidence. We’ll find out if that was true in January tomorrow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上個月我得出結論：“消費同比增長的急劇減速預示着就業的下滑，並暗示未來幾個月的就業報告不會好轉。” 本月的報告進一步證實了這一點。我們將在明天的 1 月報告中得知這一點是否屬實。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>Expect Shelter Inflation To Continue Abating In The Next Few CPI Reports</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>預計避難所通脹將在接下來的幾份 CPI 報告中繼續減緩</p>
</div><p>December JOLTS Report Shows Stabilizing At Near Stall Speed, Despite One Negative “Soft Data” Outlier</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>12 月 JOLTS 報告顯示，儘管有一個負面的 “軟數據” 異常值，但仍在接近停滯速度的穩定狀態</p>
</div><p>Jobless Claims Rise, But Still Mainly Lower YoY</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>失業救濟申請上升，但同比仍主要下降</p>
</div>

Real Retail Sales Turn Down Monthly And YoY In December, Boding Poorly For Employment

- 12 月真實零售銷售未變，名義銷售與前月相比持平。  
- 該數據對經濟趨勢和就業形勢有重要影響。  
- 消費同比首次轉為負值，預示就業將面臨挑戰。

12 月的實際零售銷售環比和同比均出現下降，這對就業形勢不利