<p>（第一財經）2 月 13 日——包括瑞銀證券和摩根士丹利在內的主要國際投資機構對中國化工市場表示樂觀，跨國石化公司將中國視為其發展的重要市場。</p>
<p>瑞銀證券在其最新研究報告中上調了對中國化工行業的展望，認為該行業將在今年至 2028 年進入新的上升週期，得益於多重積極因素，利潤回升和企業估值提升。</p>
<p>與此同時，摩根士丹利預計將出現 “長尾復甦”，而不是急劇反彈，儘管在基本面變化上與瑞銀證券達成了類似的看法。</p>
<p>華泰證券表示，基礎化學品正處於產能和庫存週期的雙重拐點，預計由於國內外需求有望在今年恢復，它們將經歷上升趨勢。</p>
<p>中國銀河證券預測，自 2024 年以來，化工行業的資本支出已下降，隨着反內捲浪潮和過剩海外產能的加速淘汰，供應端預計將收縮。第十五個五年規劃草案已為未來五年定下基調，強調擴大內需，建立供需雙底。</p>
<p>分析師指出，中國七大沿海石化基地正在逐步獲得某些產品的全球定價權，利用其在一體化、規模、低能耗和技術迭代方面的優勢，將產能優勢轉化為出口競爭力，從而影響歐洲、日本和韓國的老舊產能。</p>
<p>國海證券在最近的研究報告中表示，反內卷的努力可能促使對中國化工行業的重新估值，相關措施預計將顯著減緩全球範圍內的產能擴張。中國化工行業擁有豐富的淨經營現金流，一旦擴張放緩，潛在的股息收益率將大幅增加。</p>
<p>跨國公司的承諾</p>
<p>全球化工巨頭已表達對中國市場的承諾，增加本地投資，並重申中國在其國際發展戰略中的重要性。</p>
<p>例如，巴斯夫的代表告訴第一財經，德國公司在中國南方廣東省湛江的綜合性工廠最近開始運營。該工廠總投資 100 億歐元（119 億美元），已投入運營三條年產 40 萬噸的丁基丙烯酸酯裝置、一條年產 100 萬噸的乙烯裂解裝置和一條年產 50 萬噸的聚乙烯裝置。</p>
<p>新產能將增強巴斯夫的供應能力，為粘合劑、塗料和特種解決方案應用提供穩定的產品。</p>
<p>巴斯夫旗下的噪聲、振動和衝擊減震組件製造商 Cellasto 去年 4 月宣佈，將投資約 6000 萬歐元（7120 萬美元）在上海建設第二家工廠，計劃將其生產能力擴大近 70%，以抓住中國快速增長的電動車市場。預計明年開始運營。</p>
<p>“如果你想成為一家化工增長公司，你必須在中國增長，” 巴斯夫首席執行官馬庫斯·卡米特在去年 11 月柏林的一次討論中對多家媒體表示，《巴倫週刊》報道。“中國無疑是全球最大的化工市場，也是世界上最強大的製造國，因此如果中國增長，市場就會增長。”</p>
<p>另一家德國化工巨頭瓦克化學已將中國指定為其全球第二大業務基地。同時，科思創、埃克森美孚和索爾維都在擴大其在中國的特種化學品生產能力，瞄準高端應用。</p>
<p>這些並非衝動決策，跨國公司在進行嚴格的盡職調查時，會評估市場風險、競爭動態和回報預期，分析師表示。他們持續的投資表明，他們已識別出機會，如需求增長、供應鏈整合和進入新興工業應用。</p>
<p>中國化工行業的結構性變化</p>
<p>投資銀行和分析機構已識別出三項根本性變化正在重塑中國化工行業。</p>
<p>第一是全球產能合理化加速。埃克森美孚上個月表示，將關閉其在蘇格蘭年產 80 萬噸的乙烯裂解廠，而日本的出光興產和三井化學在 12 月宣佈將停用其在千葉的年產 37 萬噸的乙烯設施。</p>
<p>中國也在逐步淘汰超過 1200 萬噸的化工生產能力，但這是通過收緊審批、差異化電價和調整出口退税等政策引導的調整，而非其他地方因危機驅動的關閉。</p>
<p>第二個變化是需求結構的轉變。新能、電子和先進設備領域的專業化和定製化材料正成為中國化工行業明確的增長驅動力。</p>
<p>在新能源領域，對固態電池電解質、氫燃料電池材料和光伏用聚烯烴彈性體薄膜的需求激增。在電子領域，光刻膠、化學機械拋光漿料和超高純試劑的替代正在加速。</p>
<p>其他新興領域，如低空經濟和類人機器人，正在為特種工程塑料、高性能纖維和輕量化複合材料開闢全新的應用場景。</p>
<p>第三個變化是研究強度的顯著上升。萬華化學集團每年平均投資 40 億元人民幣（約合 5.791 億美元），佔其年收入的 4% 以上，這與海外主要企業如巴斯夫和道達爾相當。</p>
<p>25 家中國化工企業進入了歐盟委員會 2025 年工業研發投資排行榜，按企業研發支出排名全球前 2000 名。</p>
<p>歐盟碳邊境調整機制於 1 月 1 日生效，增加了另一個維度。該機制對化工進口徵收 8% 至 18% 的碳成本，基於生產排放。</p>
<p>中國國際經濟交流中心研究員王曉紅在《國際商務日報》上表示，傳統高能耗、高排放產品在歐盟的競爭力可能會因碳邊境調整機制的引入而減弱。</p>
<p>王曉紅指出，從中期來看，碳邊境調整機制將加速高排放產能的退出；從長期來看，它將使實現碳效率突破的企業獲得競爭優勢，因為行業將從基於價格的競爭轉向結合碳效率和研究強度的競爭。</p>
<p>編輯：Futura Costaglione</p>

巴斯夫(ADR)

<p>包括瑞銀證券和摩根士丹利在內的主要國際投資機構對中國化工市場持樂觀態度，預測 2023 年至 2028 年將迎來新的上升週期。像巴斯夫這樣的跨國公司正在加大對中國的投資，強調其在增長中的重要性。分析師指出，行業內出現了結構性變化，包括全球產能合理化以及對新能源和電子等領域專業材料需求的變化。這些發展表明，中國化工行業正在經歷重大轉型，具有在全球範圍內提高盈利能力和競爭力的潛力</p>

<p>(Yicai) Feb. 13 -- Major international investment institutions, including UBS Securities and Morgan Stanley, have expressed optimism about the Chinese chemicals market, with multinational petrochemical corporations seeing China as an essential market for their development.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（第一財經）2 月 13 日——包括瑞銀證券和摩根士丹利在內的主要國際投資機構對中國化工市場表示樂觀，跨國石化公司將中國視為其發展的重要市場。</p>
</div><p>UBS Securities upgraded its outlook for China's chemicals industry in its latest research report, believing that it will enter a new upward cycle from this year to 2028, thanks to multiple positive factors, with profits recovering and corporate valuations increasing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>瑞銀證券在其最新研究報告中上調了對中國化工行業的展望，認為該行業將在今年至 2028 年進入新的上升週期，得益於多重積極因素，利潤回升和企業估值提升。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley expects a ‘long tail recovery’ rather than a sharp rebound, despite agreeing on similar fundamental shifts as UBS Securities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，摩根士丹利預計將出現 “長尾復甦”，而不是急劇反彈，儘管在基本面變化上與瑞銀證券達成了類似的看法。</p>
</div><p>Bulk chemicals are at a dual inflection point in capacity and inventory cycles, and they are expected to experience an upward trend because domestic and overseas demand will likely recover this year, according to Huatai Securities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>華泰證券表示，基礎化學品正處於產能和庫存週期的雙重拐點，預計由於國內外需求有望在今年恢復，它們將經歷上升趨勢。</p>
</div><p>Capital expenditure in the chemicals industry has declined since 2024, and with the anti-involution wave and accelerated elimination of outdated overseas capacity, the supply side is expected to contract, China Galaxy Securities predicted. The draft of the 15th Five-Year Plan has set the tone for the next five years with its emphasis on expanding domestic demand and establishing a dual bottom for supply and demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國銀河證券預測，自 2024 年以來，化工行業的資本支出已下降，隨着反內捲浪潮和過剩海外產能的加速淘汰，供應端預計將收縮。第十五個五年規劃草案已為未來五年定下基調，強調擴大內需，建立供需雙底。</p>
</div><p>China's seven major coastal petrochemical bases are gradually gaining global pricing power for certain products, leveraging their advantages in integration, scale, low energy consumption, and technological iteration, and transforming capacity advantages into export competitiveness, thus impacting aging capacity in Europe, Japan, and South Korea, according to analysts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析師指出，中國七大沿海石化基地正在逐步獲得某些產品的全球定價權，利用其在一體化、規模、低能耗和技術迭代方面的優勢，將產能優勢轉化為出口競爭力，從而影響歐洲、日本和韓國的老舊產能。</p>
</div><p>Anti-involution efforts may prompt a revaluation of China's chemicals industry, with related measures expected to significantly slow capacity expansion at the global level, Guohai Securities said in a recent research report. China's chemicals industry has abundant net operating cash flow, and once expansion slows, potential dividend yields will increase substantially, it added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>國海證券在最近的研究報告中表示，反內卷的努力可能促使對中國化工行業的重新估值，相關措施預計將顯著減緩全球範圍內的產能擴張。中國化工行業擁有豐富的淨經營現金流，一旦擴張放緩，潛在的股息收益率將大幅增加。</p>
</div><p>Multinational Commitment</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>跨國公司的承諾</p>
</div><p>Global chemicals giant have expressed their commitment to the Chinese market, increasing their local investment and reiterating the importance of China in their international development strategies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球化工巨頭已表達對中國市場的承諾，增加本地投資，並重申中國在其國際發展戰略中的重要性。</p>
</div><p>For example, representatives from BASF told Yicai that the German company's Verbund site in Zhanjiang, China's southern Guangdong province, recently kicked off operations. With a total investment of EUR10 billion (USD11.9 billion), the site has put into operation three butyl acrylate units with an annual production capacity of 400,000 metric tons, an ethylene cracker with an annual output capacity of one million metric tons, and a polyethylene unit with a capacity of 500,000 metric tons per year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，巴斯夫的代表告訴第一財經，德國公司在中國南方廣東省湛江的綜合性工廠最近開始運營。該工廠總投資 100 億歐元（119 億美元），已投入運營三條年產 40 萬噸的丁基丙烯酸酯裝置、一條年產 100 萬噸的乙烯裂解裝置和一條年產 50 萬噸的聚乙烯裝置。</p>
</div><p>The new capacity will enhance BASF's supply capabilities, providing stable products for adhesive, coating, and specialty solution applications.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新產能將增強巴斯夫的供應能力，為粘合劑、塗料和特種解決方案應用提供穩定的產品。</p>
</div><p>Cellasto, a noise, vibration, and harshness reduction components manufacturer under BASF, announced in April last year that it would invest around EUR60 million (USD71.2 million) to build a second factory in Shanghai to expand its production capacity by almost 70 percent, aiming to capitalize on China's rapidly growing electric vehicle market. Operations are expected to start next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴斯夫旗下的噪聲、振動和衝擊減震組件製造商 Cellasto 去年 4 月宣佈，將投資約 6000 萬歐元（7120 萬美元）在上海建設第二家工廠，計劃將其生產能力擴大近 70%，以抓住中國快速增長的電動車市場。預計明年開始運營。</p>
</div><p>&#34;If you want to be a growth company in chemicals, you have to grow in China,&#34; BASF's Chief Executive Officer Markus Kamieth told several media outlets in a discussion in Berlin last November, Barron's reported. &#34;China is by far the biggest market for chemicals and the strongest manufacturing country in the world, so if China grows, the market grows.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果你想成為一家化工增長公司，你必須在中國增長，” 巴斯夫首席執行官馬庫斯·卡米特在去年 11 月柏林的一次討論中對多家媒體表示，《巴倫週刊》報道。“中國無疑是全球最大的化工市場，也是世界上最強大的製造國，因此如果中國增長，市場就會增長。”</p>
</div><p>Wacker Chemie, another German chemicals giant, has designated China as its second-largest business base globally. Meanwhile, Covestro, Evonik Industries, and Solvay are all expanding their specialty chemicals production capacity in the country, targeting high-end applications.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一家德國化工巨頭瓦克化學已將中國指定為其全球第二大業務基地。同時，科思創、埃克森美孚和索爾維都在擴大其在中國的特種化學品生產能力，瞄準高端應用。</p>
</div><p>These are not impulsive decisions, as multinationals employ rigorous due diligence, evaluating market risks, competitive dynamics, and return expectations, according to analysts. Their sustained investments suggest that they have identified opportunities, such as demand growth, supply chain integration, and access to emerging industrial applications.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些並非衝動決策，跨國公司在進行嚴格的盡職調查時，會評估市場風險、競爭動態和回報預期，分析師表示。他們持續的投資表明，他們已識別出機會，如需求增長、供應鏈整合和進入新興工業應用。</p>
</div><p>Chinese Chemicals Industry's Structural Shifts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國化工行業的結構性變化</p>
</div><p>Investment banks and analysis institutes have identified three fundamental changes reshaping the Chinese chemicals industry.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資銀行和分析機構已識別出三項根本性變化正在重塑中國化工行業。</p>
</div><p>The first is that global capacity rationalization is accelerating. Exxon Mobil said last month that it will close its ethylene cracker factory with an annual production capacity of 800,000 tons in Scotland, while Japan's Idemitsu Kosan and Mitsui Chemicals announced in December that they are decommissioning their ethylene facility with a 370,000-ton capacity in Chiba.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第一是全球產能合理化加速。埃克森美孚上個月表示，將關閉其在蘇格蘭年產 80 萬噸的乙烯裂解廠，而日本的出光興產和三井化學在 12 月宣佈將停用其在千葉的年產 37 萬噸的乙烯設施。</p>
</div><p>China is also phasing out more than 12 million tons of chemicals production capacities, but that is a decision guided by policy-guided adjustments through tightened approvals, differentiated electricity pricing, and adjusted export tax rebates, rather than crisis-driven closures elsewhere.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國也在逐步淘汰超過 1200 萬噸的化工生產能力，但這是通過收緊審批、差異化電價和調整出口退税等政策引導的調整，而非其他地方因危機驅動的關閉。</p>
</div><p>The second change is a transformation in the demand structure. Specialized and customized materials for the new energy, electronics, and advanced equipment sectors are becoming the Chinese chemicals industry's clear growth drivers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第二個變化是需求結構的轉變。新能、電子和先進設備領域的專業化和定製化材料正成為中國化工行業明確的增長驅動力。</p>
</div><p>In new energy, demand is surging for solid-state battery electrolytes, hydrogen fuel cell materials, and polyolefin elastomer films for photovoltaics. In electronics, the substitution for photoresists, chemical mechanical polishing slurries, and ultra-high-purity reagents is accelerating.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在新能源領域，對固態電池電解質、氫燃料電池材料和光伏用聚烯烴彈性體薄膜的需求激增。在電子領域，光刻膠、化學機械拋光漿料和超高純試劑的替代正在加速。</p>
</div><p>Other emerging sectors, such as the low-altitude economy and humanoid robots, are opening entirely new application scenarios for specialty engineering plastics, high-performance fibers, and lightweight composite materials.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他新興領域，如低空經濟和類人機器人，正在為特種工程塑料、高性能纖維和輕量化複合材料開闢全新的應用場景。</p>
</div><p>The third change is a sharp rise in research intensity. Wanhua Chemical Group invests an average of CNY4 billion (USD579.1 million) a year, accounting for over 4 percent of its annual revenue, which is comparable to overseas majors, such as BASF and Dow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第三個變化是研究強度的顯著上升。萬華化學集團每年平均投資 40 億元人民幣（約合 5.791 億美元），佔其年收入的 4% 以上，這與海外主要企業如巴斯夫和道達爾相當。</p>
</div><p>Twenty-five Chinese chemicals firms entered the European Union Commission's 2025 Industrial Research and Development Investment Scoreboard, ranking in the world's top 2,000 by corporate R&amp;D spending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>25 家中國化工企業進入了歐盟委員會 2025 年工業研發投資排行榜，按企業研發支出排名全球前 2000 名。</p>
</div><p>The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, which took effect Jan. 1, adds another dimension. It imposes carbon costs of 8 percent to 18 percent on chemical imports, based on production emissions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歐盟碳邊境調整機制於 1 月 1 日生效，增加了另一個維度。該機制對化工進口徵收 8% 至 18% 的碳成本，基於生產排放。</p>
</div><p>Traditional high-energy, high-emission products in traditional industries may see their competitiveness weaken in the EU with the introduction of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, Wang Xiaohong, researcher at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, told International Business Daily.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國國際經濟交流中心研究員王曉紅在《國際商務日報》上表示，傳統高能耗、高排放產品在歐盟的競爭力可能會因碳邊境調整機制的引入而減弱。</p>
</div><p>In the medium term, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism will accelerate the retirement of high-emission capacity, and in the long term, it will grant companies achieving carbon efficiency breakthroughs competitive advantages, as the industry transitions from a competition based on prices to one combining carbon efficiency and research intensity, Wang noted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>王曉紅指出，從中期來看，碳邊境調整機制將加速高排放產能的退出；從長期來看，它將使實現碳效率突破的企業獲得競爭優勢，因為行業將從基於價格的競爭轉向結合碳效率和研究強度的競爭。</p>
</div><p>Editor: Futura Costaglione</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>編輯：Futura Costaglione</p>
</div>

全球投資銀行和跨國公司提高了在中國化學品市場的投資力度