<p>作者：佈雷特·阿倫茲</p>
<p>總統提名的美聯儲候選人凱文·沃什會同樣強硬嗎？</p>
<p>美國的勝利在於美聯儲主席拒絕向白宮低頭。</p>
<p>本週經濟的重大新聞是通脹正在下降，勞動力市場好於預期，實際工資在上升。</p>
<p>那麼，美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾和他的同事們是不是得到了幹得不錯的讚譽呢？</p>
<p>沒門。總統本週在電視上與他的前首席經濟顧問一起，二人都在貶低鮑威爾及其對美聯儲的管理。政府已對主席展開刑事調查，並試圖用蘇聯時期的老把戲解僱副主席，這種手法通常被稱為貝利亞法則。</p>
<p>這對退休人員來説是一個潛在的擔憂——以及所有擁有債券或依賴投資收入的人。通脹對退休人員來説是可怕的；通脹下降是好的。通脹之所以現在下降，僅僅是因為鮑威爾在過去一年中無視了來自白宮的胡言亂語和侮辱，堅守自己的立場。</p>
<p>現在的問題是：總統提名的下一任美聯儲主席凱文·沃什會展現出同樣的獨立性和勇氣嗎？</p>
<p>我們無從得知。華爾街對此持樂觀態度：自沃什被宣佈為提名人以來，市場反應積極。但如果沃什真的打算走一條完全獨立於總統的道路，你不得不問他是如何獲得提名的。</p>
<p>這位總統可不容忍任何不忠或異議（問問瑪喬麗·泰勒·格林就知道了）。正如他本週在電視上所解釋的，總統非常非常希望美聯儲削減短期利率——至少削減一半，甚至可能降到與瑞士相同的 0%。</p>
<p>在這個時刻，回顧我們所處的位置以及接下來要走的方向是有益的。</p>
<p>毫無疑問：如果這些數字持續下去，通脹下降和強勁的就業都是鮑威爾的成就。他承受了前所未有的壓力，要求過早削減短期利率。總統公開稱他為 “太晚了”、“失敗者” 等，並幾乎在去年堅持認為短期利率應該是 1% 甚至更低。（總統還稱美聯儲主席為 “笨蛋”。）與此同時，副總統表示鮑威爾犯了 “貨幣失職”。而總統的檢察長則對他展開了刑事調查。</p>
<p>如果美聯儲屈服於政治壓力，經濟會處於何種境地？我們只能想象。但你很難找到任何一位經濟學家認為如果去年利率被削減，通脹會下降——尤其是如果如總統所願，削減到 1% 或更低。</p>
<p>這也是你定期提醒自己在媒體和政治家談論美聯儲和 “利率” 時要記住背景的提醒。經濟中有很多利率；總統希望鮑威爾削減的正是隔夜聯邦基金利率。</p>
<p>對整個經濟來説，可能更重要的是美聯儲並不直接控制的其他利率，而只能間接影響。這些包括關鍵的利率或 10 年期國債的收益率 BX:TMUBMUSD10Y，以及公司發行自己債券時需要支付的額外利息。</p>
<p>而當你查看這些時，你會發現傑羅姆·鮑威爾和美聯儲已經大幅降低了利率。</p>
<p>10 年期國債的收益率——在總統去年就職時為 4.6%，去年夏天最近為 4.47%——在週五早上再次跌至 4.1% 以下。</p>
<p>與此同時，美國公司借款的成本比總統去年就職時便宜。這意味着他們可以更容易地獲得資金進行投資，促進經濟增長。投資級公司和風險較高的高收益債券的平均收益率都在下降。</p>
<p>儘管在總統不幸的 “解放日” 事件中，他們的利率在去年春天大幅上升，導致市場動盪。</p>
<p>所有這些對經濟來説都是好消息，尤其是對那些依靠固定收入生活的人。</p>
<p>如果通脹繼續下降，明年的社會保障生活成本調整（COLA）將低於今年。這是個好消息——實際上，這是個極好的消息。COLA 越高，對老年人來説越糟糕，因為這意味着通脹越高。而 COLA 是滯後的，通常是去年數據。</p>
<p>與此同時，我唯一擁有的長期國債是通脹保護的 TIPS。在大幅 “上漲” 的日子裏，我的表現不如債券市場——但我晚上能安然入睡。</p>
<p>-佈雷特·阿倫茲</p>
<p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創建，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞社和《華爾街日報》獨立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道瓊斯新聞社</p>
<p>02-13-26 1420ET</p>

道瓊斯指數

金融業 ETF - SPDR

納斯達克綜合指數

<p>經濟顯示出積極的跡象，通脹下降、就業市場強勁以及實際工資上升，這歸功於美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾在政治壓力下的獨立性。總統提名的美聯儲候選人凱文·沃什引發了對未來美聯儲領導層的質疑。10 年期國債收益率下降，這對公司和經濟都有利。如果通脹繼續下降，可能會導致老年人的社會保障生活成本調整降低，這是一項利好。總體而言，鮑威爾的舉措為當前的經濟穩定做出了貢獻</p>

<p>By Brett Arends</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：佈雷特·阿倫茲</p>
</div><p>Will the president's Federal Reserve nominee Kevin Warsh be as tough?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>總統提名的美聯儲候選人凱文·沃什會同樣強硬嗎？</p>
</div><p>America wins because the Fed chairman refused to kowtow to the Oval Office.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國的勝利在於美聯儲主席拒絕向白宮低頭。</p>
</div><p>The big news from the economy this week is that inflation is coming down, the jobs market is better than expected and real wages are rising.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本週經濟的重大新聞是通脹正在下降，勞動力市場好於預期，實際工資在上升。</p>
</div><p>So Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues are getting credit for a job well done, right?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那麼，美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾和他的同事們是不是得到了幹得不錯的讚譽呢？</p>
</div><p>Not a chance. The president was on TV this week with his former chief economic adviser, and both of them were badmouthing Powell and his stewardship of the Fed. The administration has launched a criminal investigation into the chairman, and is also trying to fire the deputy chair using the old Soviet Union trick generally known as Beria's law.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沒門。總統本週在電視上與他的前首席經濟顧問一起，二人都在貶低鮑威爾及其對美聯儲的管理。政府已對主席展開刑事調查，並試圖用蘇聯時期的老把戲解僱副主席，這種手法通常被稱為貝利亞法則。</p>
</div><p>This is a potential worry for retirees - and everyone else who owns bonds or who relies on their investments for income. Inflation is terrible for retirees; falling inflation is good. Inflation is falling right now only because Powell has ignored the gibberish and insults from the Oval Office for a year and stuck to his guns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這對退休人員來説是一個潛在的擔憂——以及所有擁有債券或依賴投資收入的人。通脹對退休人員來説是可怕的；通脹下降是好的。通脹之所以現在下降，僅僅是因為鮑威爾在過去一年中無視了來自白宮的胡言亂語和侮辱，堅守自己的立場。</p>
</div><p>The question now is: Will Kevin Warsh, the president's pick to be the next Fed chairman, show the same independence and guts?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在的問題是：總統提名的下一任美聯儲主席凱文·沃什會展現出同樣的獨立性和勇氣嗎？</p>
</div><p>We have no idea. Wall Street is hopeful: The market reaction since Warsh was announced as the nominee has been positive. But if Warsh really is going to steer a path completely independent of the president, you have to ask how he got the nomination.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們無從得知。華爾街對此持樂觀態度：自沃什被宣佈為提名人以來，市場反應積極。但如果沃什真的打算走一條完全獨立於總統的道路，你不得不問他是如何獲得提名的。</p>
</div><p>This is not a president who tolerates any disloyalty or dissent (just ask Marjorie Taylor Greene). As he explained on TV this week, the president really, really wants the Fed to slash short-term interest rates - at least by half, and possibly to match Switzerland at 0%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這位總統可不容忍任何不忠或異議（問問瑪喬麗·泰勒·格林就知道了）。正如他本週在電視上所解釋的，總統非常非常希望美聯儲削減短期利率——至少削減一半，甚至可能降到與瑞士相同的 0%。</p>
</div><p>At this juncture, it is useful to look at where we are and where we go next.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這個時刻，回顧我們所處的位置以及接下來要走的方向是有益的。</p>
</div><p>Make no mistake: Falling inflation and strong jobs, if those numbers persist, are Powell's achievements. He was put under unprecedented pressure to slash short-term rates prematurely. The president publicly labeled him &#34;too late,&#34; a &#34;loser&#34; and more, and insisted nearly all last year that short-term rates should be 1% or even lower. (The president also called the Fed chairman a &#34;numbskull.&#34;) The vice president, meanwhile, said Powell was guilty of &#34;monetary malpractice.&#34; And the president's attorney general launched a criminal investigation into him.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毫無疑問：如果這些數字持續下去，通脹下降和強勁的就業都是鮑威爾的成就。他承受了前所未有的壓力，要求過早削減短期利率。總統公開稱他為 “太晚了”、“失敗者” 等，並幾乎在去年堅持認為短期利率應該是 1% 甚至更低。（總統還稱美聯儲主席為 “笨蛋”。）與此同時，副總統表示鮑威爾犯了 “貨幣失職”。而總統的檢察長則對他展開了刑事調查。</p>
</div><p>Where would the economy be if the Fed had buckled to the political pressure? We can only imagine. But you would walk a long way to find a single economist anywhere who thinks inflation would be coming down if interest rates had been slashed last year - especially if, as the president wanted, they were slashed to 1% or lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果美聯儲屈服於政治壓力，經濟會處於何種境地？我們只能想象。但你很難找到任何一位經濟學家認為如果去年利率被削減，通脹會下降——尤其是如果如總統所願，削減到 1% 或更低。</p>
</div><p>And this is your regular reminder to remember the context when the media and politicians talk about the Fed and &#34;interest rates.&#34; There are lots of interest rates in the economy; the one that the president wanted Powell to cut was the overnight fed-funds rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這也是你定期提醒自己在媒體和政治家談論美聯儲和 “利率” 時要記住背景的提醒。經濟中有很多利率；總統希望鮑威爾削減的正是隔夜聯邦基金利率。</p>
</div><p>Probably more important for the entire economy are other interest rates that the Fed does not control directly, and may only influence indirectly. These include the critical interest rate, or yield, on the 10-year Treasury note BX:TMUBMUSD10Y, plus the extra interest on top of that that corporations have to pay to issue their own bonds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對整個經濟來説，可能更重要的是美聯儲並不直接控制的其他利率，而只能間接影響。這些包括關鍵的利率或 10 年期國債的收益率 BX:TMUBMUSD10Y，以及公司發行自己債券時需要支付的額外利息。</p>
</div><p>And when you look there, you'll see that Jerome Powell and the Fed have cut rates - big time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而當你查看這些時，你會發現傑羅姆·鮑威爾和美聯儲已經大幅降低了利率。</p>
</div><p>The yield on the 10-year Treasury - 4.6% when the president took office last year, and 4.47% as recently as last summer - tumbled again Friday morning to below 4.1%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>10 年期國債的收益率——在總統去年就職時為 4.6%，去年夏天最近為 4.47%——在週五早上再次跌至 4.1% 以下。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, U.S. companies can borrow money more cheaply than they could when the president was inaugurated last year. That means they can get easier access to money to invest and boost the economy. The average yield charged on bonds has fallen both for investment-grade companies and for riskier high-yield bonds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，美國公司借款的成本比總統去年就職時便宜。這意味着他們可以更容易地獲得資金進行投資，促進經濟增長。投資級公司和風險較高的高收益債券的平均收益率都在下降。</p>
</div><p>And that's despite a big jump in their interest rates last spring, when the president's ill-fated &#34;liberation day&#34; fiasco plunged markets into turmoil.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管在總統不幸的 “解放日” 事件中，他們的利率在去年春天大幅上升，導致市場動盪。</p>
</div><p>All of this is good news for the economy, and especially for those who live on fixed incomes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所有這些對經濟來説都是好消息，尤其是對那些依靠固定收入生活的人。</p>
</div><p>If inflation continues to fall, next year's Social Security cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, will be less than this year's. That's good news - actually, it's excellent news. The higher the COLA, the worse it is for seniors, because it means inflation is higher. And the COLA comes a year in arrears.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果通脹繼續下降，明年的社會保障生活成本調整（COLA）將低於今年。這是個好消息——實際上，這是個極好的消息。COLA 越高，對老年人來説越糟糕，因為這意味着通脹越高。而 COLA 是滯後的，通常是去年數據。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, the only longer-term Treasury bonds I own are inflation-protected TIPS. I underperform the bond market on big &#34;up&#34; days - but I sleep at night.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，我唯一擁有的長期國債是通脹保護的 TIPS。在大幅 “上漲” 的日子裏，我的表現不如債券市場——但我晚上能安然入睡。</p>
</div><p>-Brett Arends</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-佈雷特·阿倫茲</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創建，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞社和《華爾街日報》獨立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道瓊斯新聞社</p>
</div><p>02-13-26 1420ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>02-13-26 1420ET</p>
</div>

Thank 'Too Late' Jerome Powell for the jobs and inflation beats

感謝 ‘太遲’ 的傑羅姆·鮑威爾，使得就業和通脹數據超出預期