好消息是：
<ul>
<li>道瓊斯工業平均指數（DJIA）上週一收於歷史最高點。</li>
</ul>
負面因素
第一張圖表涵蓋了過去 6 個月，顯示納斯達克綜合指數（OTC）以藍色表示，納斯達克新低的 10% 趨勢（19 日指數移動平均線）以棕色表示。OTC NL 已在反向 Y 軸上繪製，因此新低數量減少會使指標上升（上升是好事）。在每個月的第一個交易日上繪製了虛線垂直線。
OTC NL 上週在高位波動。
下一張圖表與上面的一樣，只是顯示標準普爾 500 指數（SPX）為紅色，紐約新低（NY NL）以藍色表示，已根據紐約證券交易所的數據計算。
NY NL 上週有所下降。
下一張圖表涵蓋了過去 6 個月，顯示 OTC 為藍色，納斯達克新高的 40% 趨勢（4 日指數移動平均線）以紅色表示，計算公式為新高除以新高加新低（OTC HL Ratio）。在指標的 10% 水平上繪製了虛線水平線；在 50% 的中性水平（新高和新低數量相等）處，線條為實線。
OTC HL Ratio 在中性線附近波動，週末略顯負面。
積極因素
下一張圖表與上面的一樣，只是顯示 SPX 為紅色，紐約新高比率（NY HL Ratio）以藍色表示，已根據紐約證券交易所的數據計算。
NY HL Ratio 上週略有上升。
下一張圖表涵蓋了過去 6 個月，顯示 OTC 為藍色，納斯達克新高的 10% 趨勢（OTC NH）以綠色表示。在每個月的第一個交易日上繪製了虛線垂直線。
OTC NH 上週有所上升。
下一張圖表與上面的一樣，只是顯示 SPX 為紅色，紐約新高（NY NH）以綠色表示，已根據紐約證券交易所的數據計算。
NY NH 在確認 DJIA 歷史最高點後繼續上升。
季節性
下週包括總統週期第二年的 2 月第三個星期五之前的 5 個交易日。下面的表格顯示了該期間的每日變化，以百分比為單位。
OTC 數據涵蓋 1963 年至 2025 年，而 SPX 數據從 1953 年至 2025 年。對於總統週期的第二年和所有年份的匯總都有提供。在 1953 年之前，市場每週交易 6 天，因此該數據被忽略。
即將到來的周的季節性在所有指標上都是積極的。
報告：2 月第三個星期五之前的一週。
年份後面的數字是總統週期中的位置。週一到第三個星期五的每日回報。
OTC 總統年 2（PY2）
年份 一 星期一 星期二 星期三 星期四 星期五 總計
1966-2 0.23% -0.22% -0.47% 0.50% 0.13% 0.19%
1970-2 -0.17% -0.10% -0.17% 0.67% 0.02% 0.26%
1974-2 -1.16% -0.69% -0.46% 0.14% 0.85% -1.32%
1978-2 -0.23% -0.54% -0.21% -0.38% 0.08% -1.29%
1982-2 0.00% -0.99% 0.30% 0.07% -0.40% -1.02%
平均 -0.33% -0.51% -0.20% 0.20% 0.14% -0.64%
1986-2 0.00% 0.61% 0.15% 0.06% 0.72% 1.54%
1990-2 -0.57% -0.15% 0.19% 0.72% -0.14% 0.04%
1994-2 0.52% 0.59% 0.32% -0.30% -0.18% 0.95%
1998-2 0.00% -0.41% 0.72% 0.66% 0.06% 1.04%
2002-2 1.53% -0.67% 1.36% -0.85% -2.07% -0.71%
平均 0.49% 0.00% 0.55% 0.06% -0.32% 0.57%
2006-2 -0.98% 1.00% 0.63% 0.80% -0.53% 0.92%
2010-2 0.00% 1.40% 0.55% 0.69% 0.10% 2.74%
2014-2 0.00% 0.68% -0.82% 0.70% -0.10% 0.46%
2018-2 1.56% 0.45% 1.85% 1.57% -0.23% 5.19%
2022-2 0.00% 2.53% -0.11% -2.88% -1.23% -1.70%
平均 0.19% 1.21% 0.42% 0.18% -0.40% 1.52%
OTC PY2 1966 - 2022 匯總
平均 0.07% 0.23% 0.26% 0.14% -0.19% 0.49%
勝率 40% 47% 60% 73% 47% 67%
OTC 所有年份 1963 - 2025 匯總
平均 0.16% -0.02% 0.16% 0.06% -0.21% 0.10%
勝率 59% 53% 60% 59% 46% 57%
SPX PY2
年份 一 星期一 星期二 星期三 星期四 星期五 總計
1954-2 -0.31% -0.88% 0.19% 0.39% -0.15% -0.76%
1958-2 -0.53% 0.15% -0.05% -0.58% -0.07% -1.09%
1962-2 -0.03% -0.01% -0.04% 0.45% -0.21% 0.16%
1966-2 -0.17% -0.51% -0.01% -0.54% -0.27% -1.50%
1970-2 -0.08% -0.12% 1.24% 0.37% 0.31% 1.72%
1974-2 -1.81% 0.31% 0.04% -0.03% 1.45% -0.04%
1978-2 -0.24% -0.91% -0.24% -0.84% -0.14% -2.37%
1982-2 0.00% -0.28% -0.32% 0.11% -0.53% -1.02%
平均 -0.58% -0.30% 0.14% -0.19% 0.17% -0.64%
1986-2 0.00% 1.22% -1.21% 1.12% 1.08% 2.21%
1990-2 -1.06% 0.28% 0.30% 0.87% -0.65% -0.26%
1994-2 0.01% 0.49% 0.06% -0.52% -0.56% -0.53%
1998-2 0.00% 0.26% 0.91% -0.37% 0.57% 1.38%
2002-2 1.43% -0.40% 0.99% -0.18% -1.10% 0.75%
平均 0.13% 0.37% 0.21% 0.18% -0.13% 0.71%
2006-2 -0.33% 1.00% 0.35% 0.73% -0.17% 1.59%
2010-2 0.00% 1.80% 0.42% 0.66% 0.22% 3.10%
2014-2 0.00% 0.12% -0.65% 0.60% -0.19% -0.13%
2018-2 1.39% 0.26% 1.34% 1.21% 0.04% 4.24%
2022-2 -0.38% 1.58% 0.09% -2.12% -0.72% -1.55%
平均 0.23% 0.95% 0.31% 0.22% -0.16% 1.45%
SPX PY2 1954 - 2022 匯總
平均 -0.16% 0.24% 0.19% 0.07% -0.06% 0.33%
勝率 23% 61% 61% 56% 33% 44%
SPX 所有年份 1953 - 2025 匯總
平均 0.11% 0.01% 0.22% -0.06% -0.05% 0.21%
勝率 49% 56% 62% 47% 45% 56%
結論
新低的高水平仍然令人擔憂。
上週表現最強的行業是公用事業和貴金屬（從上週底部反彈），而表現最弱的是互聯網（連續第五週）和銀行。
我預計主要指數在 2 月 20 日星期五會高於 2 月 13 日星期五的水平。
上週的積極預測未能實現。
<hr/>
更多來自此作者的內容：
2026 年 2 月 7 日技術市場報告
截至 1 月 31 日的技術市場報告
2026 年 1 月 24 日技術市場報告

道瓊斯工業平均分紅 ETF - Invesco

3 倍做多標普 500 ETF - ProShares

全美成長股指數 MSCI ETF - Vanguard

道瓊斯工業平均指數（DJIA）達到了歷史新高，而納斯達克綜合指數則顯示出混合信號，新低和新高交替波動。標普 500 的新高也確認了道瓊斯的峯值。根據總統週期的歷史數據，未來一週的季節性趨勢看起來積極。總體而言，市場情緒謹慎樂觀，各個指數的指標顯示出正面和負面的波動

The good news is:
<div class="lb-trans">好消息是：
</div><ul>
<li>The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed at an all time high last Monday.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>道瓊斯工業平均指數（DJIA）上週一收於歷史最高點。</li>
</ul>
</div>The Negatives
<div class="lb-trans">負面因素
</div>The first chart covers the past 6 months showing the Nasdaq composite (OTC) in blue and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of Nasdaq new lows (OTC NL) in brown. OTC NL has been plotted on an inverted Y axis so decreasing numbers of new lows move the indicator upward (up is good). Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month.
<div class="lb-trans">第一張圖表涵蓋了過去 6 個月，顯示納斯達克綜合指數（OTC）以藍色表示，納斯達克新低的 10% 趨勢（19 日指數移動平均線）以棕色表示。OTC NL 已在反向 Y 軸上繪製，因此新低數量減少會使指標上升（上升是好事）。在每個月的第一個交易日上繪製了虛線垂直線。
</div>OTC NL bounced around at a high level last week.
<div class="lb-trans">OTC NL 上週在高位波動。
</div>The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) in red and NY NL, in blue, has been calculated with NYSE data.
<div class="lb-trans">下一張圖表與上面的一樣，只是顯示標準普爾 500 指數（SPX）為紅色，紐約新低（NY NL）以藍色表示，已根據紐約證券交易所的數據計算。
</div>NY NL moved downward last week.
<div class="lb-trans">NY NL 上週有所下降。
</div>The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the OTC in blue and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of Nasdaq new highs divided by new highs + new lows (OTC HL Ratio), in red. Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn at 10% levels for the indicator; the line is solid at the 50%, neutral level (equal numbers of new highs and new lows).
<div class="lb-trans">下一張圖表涵蓋了過去 6 個月，顯示 OTC 為藍色，納斯達克新高的 40% 趨勢（4 日指數移動平均線）以紅色表示，計算公式為新高除以新高加新低（OTC HL Ratio）。在指標的 10% 水平上繪製了虛線水平線；在 50% 的中性水平（新高和新低數量相等）處，線條為實線。
</div>OTC HL Ratio moved around the neutral line ending the week slightly negative.
<div class="lb-trans">OTC HL Ratio 在中性線附近波動，週末略顯負面。
</div>The Positives
<div class="lb-trans">積極因素
</div>The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the SPX in red and NY HL ratio, in blue, has been calculated with NYSE data.
<div class="lb-trans">下一張圖表與上面的一樣，只是顯示 SPX 為紅色，紐約新高比率（NY HL Ratio）以藍色表示，已根據紐約證券交易所的數據計算。
</div>NY HL Ratio rose a bit last week.
<div class="lb-trans">NY HL Ratio 上週略有上升。
</div>The next chart covers the last 6 months showing the OTC in blue and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of Nasdaq new highs (OTC NH) in green. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month.
<div class="lb-trans">下一張圖表涵蓋了過去 6 個月，顯示 OTC 為藍色，納斯達克新高的 10% 趨勢（OTC NH）以綠色表示。在每個月的第一個交易日上繪製了虛線垂直線。
</div>OTC NH moved upward last week.
<div class="lb-trans">OTC NH 上週有所上升。
</div>The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the SPX in red and NY NH in green has been calculated with NYSE data.
<div class="lb-trans">下一張圖表與上面的一樣，只是顯示 SPX 為紅色，紐約新高（NY NH）以綠色表示，已根據紐約證券交易所的數據計算。
</div>NY NH continued moving higher after confirming the all time high for the the DJIA earlier in the week.
<div class="lb-trans">NY NH 在確認 DJIA 歷史最高點後繼續上升。
</div>Seasonality
<div class="lb-trans">季節性
</div>Next week includes the 5 trading days prior to the 3rd Friday of February during the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle. The tables below show the daily change, on a percentage basis, for that period.
<div class="lb-trans">下週包括總統週期第二年的 2 月第三個星期五之前的 5 個交易日。下面的表格顯示了該期間的每日變化，以百分比為單位。
</div>OTC data covers the period from 1963 to 2025 while SPX data runs from 1953 to 2025. There are summaries for both the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined. Prior to 1953 the market traded 6 days a week so that data has been ignored.
<div class="lb-trans">OTC 數據涵蓋 1963 年至 2025 年，而 SPX 數據從 1953 年至 2025 年。對於總統週期的第二年和所有年份的匯總都有提供。在 1953 年之前，市場每週交易 6 天，因此該數據被忽略。
</div>Seasonality for the coming week has been positive by all measures.
<div class="lb-trans">即將到來的周的季節性在所有指標上都是積極的。
</div>Report for the week before the 3rd Friday of February.
<div class="lb-trans">報告：2 月第三個星期五之前的一週。
</div>The number following the year is the position in the Presidential Cycle. Daily returns from Monday through 3rd Friday.
<div class="lb-trans">年份後面的數字是總統週期中的位置。週一到第三個星期五的每日回報。
</div>OTC Presidential Year 2 (PY2)
<div class="lb-trans">OTC 總統年 2（PY2）
</div>Year Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Totals
<div class="lb-trans">年份 一 星期一 星期二 星期三 星期四 星期五 總計
</div>1966-2 0.23% -0.22% -0.47% 0.50% 0.13% 0.19%
<div class="lb-trans">1966-2 0.23% -0.22% -0.47% 0.50% 0.13% 0.19%
</div>1970-2 -0.17% -0.10% -0.17% 0.67% 0.02% 0.26%
<div class="lb-trans">1970-2 -0.17% -0.10% -0.17% 0.67% 0.02% 0.26%
</div>1974-2 -1.16% -0.69% -0.46% 0.14% 0.85% -1.32%
<div class="lb-trans">1974-2 -1.16% -0.69% -0.46% 0.14% 0.85% -1.32%
</div>1978-2 -0.23% -0.54% -0.21% -0.38% 0.08% -1.29%
<div class="lb-trans">1978-2 -0.23% -0.54% -0.21% -0.38% 0.08% -1.29%
</div>1982-2 0.00% -0.99% 0.30% 0.07% -0.40% -1.02%
<div class="lb-trans">1982-2 0.00% -0.99% 0.30% 0.07% -0.40% -1.02%
</div>Avg -0.33% -0.51% -0.20% 0.20% 0.14% -0.64%
<div class="lb-trans">平均 -0.33% -0.51% -0.20% 0.20% 0.14% -0.64%
</div>1986-2 0.00% 0.61% 0.15% 0.06% 0.72% 1.54%
<div class="lb-trans">1986-2 0.00% 0.61% 0.15% 0.06% 0.72% 1.54%
</div>1990-2 -0.57% -0.15% 0.19% 0.72% -0.14% 0.04%
<div class="lb-trans">1990-2 -0.57% -0.15% 0.19% 0.72% -0.14% 0.04%
</div>1994-2 0.52% 0.59% 0.32% -0.30% -0.18% 0.95%
<div class="lb-trans">1994-2 0.52% 0.59% 0.32% -0.30% -0.18% 0.95%
</div>1998-2 0.00% -0.41% 0.72% 0.66% 0.06% 1.04%
<div class="lb-trans">1998-2 0.00% -0.41% 0.72% 0.66% 0.06% 1.04%
</div>2002-2 1.53% -0.67% 1.36% -0.85% -2.07% -0.71%
<div class="lb-trans">2002-2 1.53% -0.67% 1.36% -0.85% -2.07% -0.71%
</div>Avg 0.49% 0.00% 0.55% 0.06% -0.32% 0.57%
<div class="lb-trans">平均 0.49% 0.00% 0.55% 0.06% -0.32% 0.57%
</div>2006-2 -0.98% 1.00% 0.63% 0.80% -0.53% 0.92%
<div class="lb-trans">2006-2 -0.98% 1.00% 0.63% 0.80% -0.53% 0.92%
</div>2010-2 0.00% 1.40% 0.55% 0.69% 0.10% 2.74%
<div class="lb-trans">2010-2 0.00% 1.40% 0.55% 0.69% 0.10% 2.74%
</div>2014-2 0.00% 0.68% -0.82% 0.70% -0.10% 0.46%
<div class="lb-trans">2014-2 0.00% 0.68% -0.82% 0.70% -0.10% 0.46%
</div>2018-2 1.56% 0.45% 1.85% 1.57% -0.23% 5.19%
<div class="lb-trans">2018-2 1.56% 0.45% 1.85% 1.57% -0.23% 5.19%
</div>2022-2 0.00% 2.53% -0.11% -2.88% -1.23% -1.70%
<div class="lb-trans">2022-2 0.00% 2.53% -0.11% -2.88% -1.23% -1.70%
</div>Avg 0.19% 1.21% 0.42% 0.18% -0.40% 1.52%
<div class="lb-trans">平均 0.19% 1.21% 0.42% 0.18% -0.40% 1.52%
</div>OTC summary for PY2 1966 - 2022
<div class="lb-trans">OTC PY2 1966 - 2022 匯總
</div>Avg 0.07% 0.23% 0.26% 0.14% -0.19% 0.49%
<div class="lb-trans">平均 0.07% 0.23% 0.26% 0.14% -0.19% 0.49%
</div>Win% 40% 47% 60% 73% 47% 67%
<div class="lb-trans">勝率 40% 47% 60% 73% 47% 67%
</div>OTC summary for all years 1963 - 2025
<div class="lb-trans">OTC 所有年份 1963 - 2025 匯總
</div>Avg 0.16% -0.02% 0.16% 0.06% -0.21% 0.10%
<div class="lb-trans">平均 0.16% -0.02% 0.16% 0.06% -0.21% 0.10%
</div>Win% 59% 53% 60% 59% 46% 57%
<div class="lb-trans">勝率 59% 53% 60% 59% 46% 57%
</div>SPX PY2
<div class="lb-trans">SPX PY2
</div>Year Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Totals
<div class="lb-trans">年份 一 星期一 星期二 星期三 星期四 星期五 總計
</div>1954-2 -0.31% -0.88% 0.19% 0.39% -0.15% -0.76%
<div class="lb-trans">1954-2 -0.31% -0.88% 0.19% 0.39% -0.15% -0.76%
</div>1958-2 -0.53% 0.15% -0.05% -0.58% -0.07% -1.09%
<div class="lb-trans">1958-2 -0.53% 0.15% -0.05% -0.58% -0.07% -1.09%
</div>1962-2 -0.03% -0.01% -0.04% 0.45% -0.21% 0.16%
<div class="lb-trans">1962-2 -0.03% -0.01% -0.04% 0.45% -0.21% 0.16%
</div>1966-2 -0.17% -0.51% -0.01% -0.54% -0.27% -1.50%
<div class="lb-trans">1966-2 -0.17% -0.51% -0.01% -0.54% -0.27% -1.50%
</div>1970-2 -0.08% -0.12% 1.24% 0.37% 0.31% 1.72%
<div class="lb-trans">1970-2 -0.08% -0.12% 1.24% 0.37% 0.31% 1.72%
</div>1974-2 -1.81% 0.31% 0.04% -0.03% 1.45% -0.04%
<div class="lb-trans">1974-2 -1.81% 0.31% 0.04% -0.03% 1.45% -0.04%
</div>1978-2 -0.24% -0.91% -0.24% -0.84% -0.14% -2.37%
<div class="lb-trans">1978-2 -0.24% -0.91% -0.24% -0.84% -0.14% -2.37%
</div>1982-2 0.00% -0.28% -0.32% 0.11% -0.53% -1.02%
<div class="lb-trans">1982-2 0.00% -0.28% -0.32% 0.11% -0.53% -1.02%
</div>Avg -0.58% -0.30% 0.14% -0.19% 0.17% -0.64%
<div class="lb-trans">平均 -0.58% -0.30% 0.14% -0.19% 0.17% -0.64%
</div>1986-2 0.00% 1.22% -1.21% 1.12% 1.08% 2.21%
<div class="lb-trans">1986-2 0.00% 1.22% -1.21% 1.12% 1.08% 2.21%
</div>1990-2 -1.06% 0.28% 0.30% 0.87% -0.65% -0.26%
<div class="lb-trans">1990-2 -1.06% 0.28% 0.30% 0.87% -0.65% -0.26%
</div>1994-2 0.01% 0.49% 0.06% -0.52% -0.56% -0.53%
<div class="lb-trans">1994-2 0.01% 0.49% 0.06% -0.52% -0.56% -0.53%
</div>1998-2 0.00% 0.26% 0.91% -0.37% 0.57% 1.38%
<div class="lb-trans">1998-2 0.00% 0.26% 0.91% -0.37% 0.57% 1.38%
</div>2002-2 1.43% -0.40% 0.99% -0.18% -1.10% 0.75%
<div class="lb-trans">2002-2 1.43% -0.40% 0.99% -0.18% -1.10% 0.75%
</div>Avg 0.13% 0.37% 0.21% 0.18% -0.13% 0.71%
<div class="lb-trans">平均 0.13% 0.37% 0.21% 0.18% -0.13% 0.71%
</div>2006-2 -0.33% 1.00% 0.35% 0.73% -0.17% 1.59%
<div class="lb-trans">2006-2 -0.33% 1.00% 0.35% 0.73% -0.17% 1.59%
</div>2010-2 0.00% 1.80% 0.42% 0.66% 0.22% 3.10%
<div class="lb-trans">2010-2 0.00% 1.80% 0.42% 0.66% 0.22% 3.10%
</div>2014-2 0.00% 0.12% -0.65% 0.60% -0.19% -0.13%
<div class="lb-trans">2014-2 0.00% 0.12% -0.65% 0.60% -0.19% -0.13%
</div>2018-2 1.39% 0.26% 1.34% 1.21% 0.04% 4.24%
<div class="lb-trans">2018-2 1.39% 0.26% 1.34% 1.21% 0.04% 4.24%
</div>2022-2 -0.38% 1.58% 0.09% -2.12% -0.72% -1.55%
<div class="lb-trans">2022-2 -0.38% 1.58% 0.09% -2.12% -0.72% -1.55%
</div>Avg 0.23% 0.95% 0.31% 0.22% -0.16% 1.45%
<div class="lb-trans">平均 0.23% 0.95% 0.31% 0.22% -0.16% 1.45%
</div>SPX summary for PY2 1954 - 2022
<div class="lb-trans">SPX PY2 1954 - 2022 匯總
</div>Avg -0.16% 0.24% 0.19% 0.07% -0.06% 0.33%
<div class="lb-trans">平均 -0.16% 0.24% 0.19% 0.07% -0.06% 0.33%
</div>Win% 23% 61% 61% 56% 33% 44%
<div class="lb-trans">勝率 23% 61% 61% 56% 33% 44%
</div>SPX summary for all years 1953 - 2025
<div class="lb-trans">SPX 所有年份 1953 - 2025 匯總
</div>Avg 0.11% 0.01% 0.22% -0.06% -0.05% 0.21%
<div class="lb-trans">平均 0.11% 0.01% 0.22% -0.06% -0.05% 0.21%
</div>Win% 49% 56% 62% 47% 45% 56%
<div class="lb-trans">勝率 49% 56% 62% 47% 45% 56%
</div>Conclusion
<div class="lb-trans">結論
</div>The high level of new lows continues to be worrisome.
<div class="lb-trans">新低的高水平仍然令人擔憂。
</div>The strongest sectors last week were Utilities and Precious Metals (up from the bottom last wee) while the weakest were Internet (for the 5th week in a row and Banks.
<div class="lb-trans">上週表現最強的行業是公用事業和貴金屬（從上週底部反彈），而表現最弱的是互聯網（連續第五週）和銀行。
</div>I expect the major averages to be higher on Friday February 20 than they were on Friday February 13
<div class="lb-trans">我預計主要指數在 2 月 20 日星期五會高於 2 月 13 日星期五的水平。
</div>Last week's positive forecast was a miss.
<div class="lb-trans">上週的積極預測未能實現。
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div>More By This Author:
<div class="lb-trans">更多來自此作者的內容：
</div>Technical Market Report For February 7, 2026
<div class="lb-trans">2026 年 2 月 7 日技術市場報告
</div>Technical Market Report As Of Jan. 31
<div class="lb-trans">截至 1 月 31 日的技術市場報告
</div>Technical Market Report For January 24, 2026
<div class="lb-trans">2026 年 1 月 24 日技術市場報告
</div>

Technical Market Report For February 14, 2026

- 道瓊斯工業平均指數上週一收於歷史新高。  
- 納斯達克新低與新高的趨勢變化引發關注。  
- 預計到 2 月 20 日，主要指數將高於 2 月 13 日水平。

2026年2月14日技術市場報告