<p>[新加坡] 東南亞的風險投資市場在過去幾年經歷了一些挑戰。</p>
<p>DealStreetAsia 最近的一篇文章顯示，該地區的交易量在過去八個季度中持續下降，儘管在過去兩三個月中似乎有所穩定。</p>
<p>對於印度尼西亞來説，情況看起來更加嚴峻，交易價值從 2021 年下半年約 54 億美元的峯值滑落至 2025 年上半年不足 1 億美元。</p>
<p>需要明確的是，這並不意味着該國不再有任何投資活動。但機會顯著少於以前。</p>
<p>這種低迷是真實存在的，但並非沒有理由。如果要推測這種狀況的主要原因，那就是投資者信心——或者説缺乏信心。</p>
<h2>投資者信心的削弱</h2>
<p>有三個主要問題導致了這一情況。</p>
<p>首先，關於該國初創企業在治理方面的嚴重失職和缺乏誠信的消息，導致了顯著的價值損失，從而削弱了信心。</p>
<p>這種失敗可能源於領導能力的無能，或者創始人故意欺詐投資者。在過去幾年中，印度尼西亞金融科技行業中都有許多這樣的案例。</p>
<p>其中一個案例導致了數百萬美元的支付失敗損失，原因是超過 250 筆虛假貸款，而另一個案例則導致一位創始人在涉嫌挪用數百萬美元后逃避逮捕超過一年，最終被國際刑警逮捕。</p>
<p>然而，沒有哪個案例能與 eFishery 的醜聞相提並論，該事件中的複雜計劃在多年內欺詐了許多主要投資者。</p>
<p>其次，印度尼西亞一直在應對持續的宏觀經濟疲軟。生活必需品的通貨膨脹和更高的借貸成本減少了中低收入階層的購買力。</p>
<p>中央統計局的數據表明，中產階級從 2019 年的 5700 萬人縮減至 2024 年的 4800 萬人以上，許多工人仍集中在低收入行業。</p>
<p>這導致不同消費羣體的支付能力差異更加明顯和擴大。</p>
<p>第三，與其他一些市場相比，印度尼西亞尚未顯示出可持續的退出。</p>
<p>自 2015 年 Gojek 崛起以來，印度尼西亞的風險投資市場風頭無兩，至今僅有不到五個主要的首次公開募股（IPO）。GoTo 的股價自那時以來暴跌，目前約為 2022 年上市時的 16%。</p>
<p>這使得包括全球投資者在內的許多投資者開始質疑他們在該國投資的信心。</p>
<p>儘管如此，仍然存在機會。投資者需要適應變化的風向。</p>
<h2>投資論點</h2>
<p>隨着本土純軟件解決方案繼續尋找市場契合點，而人工智能（AI）解決方案落後於同行，投資論點需要重新校準，以適應該國的內在優勢。</p>
<p>印度尼西亞仍然是東南亞最大的經濟體，擁有近 3 億的年輕快速增長的人口，平均年齡為 30 歲。</p>
<p>它也是煤炭、礦產和棕櫚油的強大出口國——在 2024 年佔國內生產總值的 20% 以上——消費仍佔國內生產總值的一半以上。該國的消費者是一個不可忽視的力量。</p>
<p>因此，印度尼西亞的投資論點應以其人民為中心。消費零售、金融服務和醫療保健等領域脱穎而出，成為機會的領域。</p>
<p>尤其是消費領域，涵蓋範圍廣泛，仍然受到強烈關注。</p>
<p>儘管購買力減弱，但有效服務於低收入羣體的企業仍然可以蓬勃發展。幾個低價食品和飲料企業的成功就是證明。</p>
<p>在零售方面，年輕消費者仍然願意幾乎衝動地花錢在體驗和個人滿足上。例如，一個設計良好的零售店體驗，如果在社交媒體上引起共鳴並吸引 Z 世代，可以吸引大量客流。</p>
<p>在直銷個人護理領域，我們觀察到一些具有強大創始人的公司能夠在競爭激烈的產品海洋中識別機會。</p>
<p>例如，當本土品牌在化妝品領域激烈競爭時，幾家公司識別出防曬霜作為一個增長的子領域。他們從第一 mover 的優勢中獲利。</p>
<p>此外，支持這些本土品牌的供應鏈基礎設施參與者也受益並共同成長。</p>
<p>隨着中產階級繼續承受壓力，具有更強內在風險管理的金融解決方案——如擔保貸款——已成為更健康的選擇。</p>
<p>過去，大多數金融科技初創企業專注於無擔保貸款，並依賴高利率來抵消不良貸款和因欺詐造成的損失。</p>
<p>現在，我們看到更負責任的貸款實踐的迴歸，如典當行和其他形式的擔保貸款，以及與銀行生態系統的更緊密合作。</p>
<p>這使得資產負債表更加穩健，減少了不良表現或欺詐事件的發生。</p>
<h2>服務不足的醫療保健領域</h2>
<p>隨着印度尼西亞人口的持續增長和老齡化，其服務不足的醫療保健領域——醫院牀位與人口比例遠低於區域同行——提供了大量的增長投資機會。</p>
<p>以診所形式出現的小型提供者數量激增，專注於定製化服務——如女性健康和產科，或美容和整形護理——正在吸引機構投資者的關注。診所模式允許更低的資本負擔和更廣泛的覆蓋。</p>
<p>與此同時，現代化和數字化表現不佳的醫院有着充足的機會，以滿足主要大都市地區之外日益增長的醫療服務需求。</p>
<p>這得益於印度尼西亞的醫療改革和全民健康覆蓋體系的推動。</p>
<p>對於能夠進一步擴展投資範圍的投資者來説，天然資源領域相鄰的投資機會——如電動車、電池和替代能源——也可以進行探索。</p>
<h2>迴歸牛市週期</h2>
<p>儘管面臨挑戰，印度尼西亞正在經歷的事情是週期性的。人們可能會問：我們如何回到過去的牛市週期？</p>
<p>我相信有三個核心因素需要具備，以朝着這個方向發展並恢復投資者信心。</p>
<p>第一個是強大且切實可行的催化劑——這與我們在移動革命期間看到的情況相似，移動革命成為了電子商務和應用平台顛覆的基礎，幾乎是在十年前。也許我們尚未看到人工智能作為這裏的驅動力。</p>
<p>第二，早期投資者必須繼續支持種子級企業，以鼓勵創新和潛在的企業家。</p>
<p>這將創造一個良性循環，使更多個人願意承擔商業風險並吸引更多投資資金，從而進一步吸引更多企業家，依此類推。</p>
<p>第三，政府需要識別一個核心行業並將其作為支柱，以激發創新的火花。然後，私人和機構投資者可以助燃這一火焰。</p>
<p>鄰國已經在半導體供應鏈和製造基礎設施的背景下這樣做了。</p>
<p>印度尼西亞無疑正經歷困難時期。但即使在這個熊市週期中，仍然有投資機會的領域等待被發現，在信心完全恢復和下一個牛市週期開始之前。</p>
<p><strong>作者是 Vertex Ventures 東南亞和印度的合夥人</strong></p>

<p>東南亞的風險投資市場，特別是印度尼西亞，面臨着重大挑戰，交易金額從 2021 年底的 54 億美元驟降至 2025 年初的不足 1 億美元。由於治理問題、宏觀經濟疲軟以及缺乏可持續的退出機制，投資者信心受到侵蝕，導致了這一下降。然而，在消費零售、金融服務和醫療保健等領域仍然存在機會，因為印度尼西亞年輕的人口和強大的消費基礎繼續展現出增長潛力。投資者被鼓勵調整策略，專注於這些內在優勢</p>

<p>[SINGAPORE] South-east Asia’s venture market has gone through some challenging times in the past several years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[新加坡] 東南亞的風險投資市場在過去幾年經歷了一些挑戰。</p>
</div><p>A recent article by DealStreetAsia showed that deal volumes across the region have been declining for the past eight quarters, though they appear to have stabilised somewhat in the last two or three.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>DealStreetAsia 最近的一篇文章顯示，該地區的交易量在過去八個季度中持續下降，儘管在過去兩三個月中似乎有所穩定。</p>
</div><p>The picture looks bleaker for Indonesia, where deal value slid from a peak of around US$5.4 billion in the second half of 2021 to less than US$100 million in the first half of 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於印度尼西亞來説，情況看起來更加嚴峻，交易價值從 2021 年下半年約 54 億美元的峯值滑落至 2025 年上半年不足 1 億美元。</p>
</div><p>To be clear, this does not mean that there is no longer any investment activity in the country. But the opportunities are drastically fewer than before.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>需要明確的是，這並不意味着該國不再有任何投資活動。但機會顯著少於以前。</p>
</div><p>The malaise is real, but not without good reason. If one were to surmise the overarching cause for this condition, it would be investor confidence – or the lack thereof.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種低迷是真實存在的，但並非沒有理由。如果要推測這種狀況的主要原因，那就是投資者信心——或者説缺乏信心。</p>
</div><h2>Eroded investor confidence</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投資者信心的削弱</h2>
</div><p>Three main issues have contributed to this.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有三個主要問題導致了這一情況。</p>
</div><p>First, news of serious breaches in governance and a lack of integrity among the country’s startups that caused significant value destruction have eroded confidence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，關於該國初創企業在治理方面的嚴重失職和缺乏誠信的消息，導致了顯著的價值損失，從而削弱了信心。</p>
</div><p>Such failures could stem from either ineptitude in leadership, or intent by founders to defraud investors. There were many instances of both in the Indonesian financial technology sector in the last several years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種失敗可能源於領導能力的無能，或者創始人故意欺詐投資者。在過去幾年中，印度尼西亞金融科技行業中都有許多這樣的案例。</p>
</div><p>One case resulted in millions of failed payment losses due to more than 250 fictitious loans, while another led to the Interpol arrest of a founder who managed to evade capture for more than a year after allegedly siphoning millions of dollars.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其中一個案例導致了數百萬美元的支付失敗損失，原因是超過 250 筆虛假貸款，而另一個案例則導致一位創始人在涉嫌挪用數百萬美元后逃避逮捕超過一年，最終被國際刑警逮捕。</p>
</div><p>However, none could rival the scale and sophistication of the eFishery saga, in which a complex scheme defrauded many major investors over multiple years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，沒有哪個案例能與 eFishery 的醜聞相提並論，該事件中的複雜計劃在多年內欺詐了許多主要投資者。</p>
</div><p>Second, Indonesia has been grappling with continued macroeconomic weakness. Inflation in necessities and higher costs of borrowing have reduced middle and lower-class purchasing power.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，印度尼西亞一直在應對持續的宏觀經濟疲軟。生活必需品的通貨膨脹和更高的借貸成本減少了中低收入階層的購買力。</p>
</div><p>Data from the Central Bureau of Statistics showed that the middle class shrank from 57 million people in 2019 to just over 48 million people in 2024, with many workers still concentrated in low-income sectors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中央統計局的數據表明，中產階級從 2019 年的 5700 萬人縮減至 2024 年的 4800 萬人以上，許多工人仍集中在低收入行業。</p>
</div><p>This has led to more evident and widening variance in different consumer segments’ ability to pay.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這導致不同消費羣體的支付能力差異更加明顯和擴大。</p>
</div><p>Third, compared with some other markets, Indonesia has yet to show sustainable exits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第三，與其他一些市場相比，印度尼西亞尚未顯示出可持續的退出。</p>
</div><p>Since the rise of Gojek, which took Indonesia’s venture capital market by storm in 2015, there have been fewer than five major initial public offerings (IPOs). GoTo’s share price has since collapsed, and is now roughly 16 per cent of its debut price when it went public in 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2015 年 Gojek 崛起以來，印度尼西亞的風險投資市場風頭無兩，至今僅有不到五個主要的首次公開募股（IPO）。GoTo 的股價自那時以來暴跌，目前約為 2022 年上市時的 16%。</p>
</div><p>This has caused many investors, including global ones, to question their conviction in investing in the country.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這使得包括全球投資者在內的許多投資者開始質疑他們在該國投資的信心。</p>
</div><p>All that said, there are still opportunities. Investors will need to adapt as the winds of change continue to blow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，仍然存在機會。投資者需要適應變化的風向。</p>
</div><h2>The investment thesis</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投資論點</h2>
</div><p>As home-grown pure software solutions continue to search for market fit and artificial intelligence (AI) solutions lag behind peers, the investment thesis will need to be recalibrated towards the country’s inherent strengths.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着本土純軟件解決方案繼續尋找市場契合點，而人工智能（AI）解決方案落後於同行，投資論點需要重新校準，以適應該國的內在優勢。</p>
</div><p>Indonesia is still the largest economy in South-east Asia, with a young, fast-growing population of almost 300 million and a median age of 30.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度尼西亞仍然是東南亞最大的經濟體，擁有近 3 億的年輕快速增長的人口，平均年齡為 30 歲。</p>
</div><p>It is also a strong exporter of coal, minerals and palm oil – accounting for more than 20 per cent of gross domestic product in 2024 – and consumption continues to account for more than half of GDP. The country’s consumers are a force to be reckoned with.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它也是煤炭、礦產和棕櫚油的強大出口國——在 2024 年佔國內生產總值的 20% 以上——消費仍佔國內生產總值的一半以上。該國的消費者是一個不可忽視的力量。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, the Indonesia thesis should centre on its people. Consumer retail, financial services and healthcare, among others, stand out as sectors of opportunities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，印度尼西亞的投資論點應以其人民為中心。消費零售、金融服務和醫療保健等領域脱穎而出，成為機會的領域。</p>
</div><p>The consumer sector, in particular, encapsulates a wide range of coverage and continues to be of strong interest.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尤其是消費領域，涵蓋範圍廣泛，仍然受到強烈關注。</p>
</div><p>Although purchasing power has weakened, businesses which effectively serve the lower-income segment can still thrive. The evidence is in the success of several low-priced food and beverage establishments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管購買力減弱，但有效服務於低收入羣體的企業仍然可以蓬勃發展。幾個低價食品和飲料企業的成功就是證明。</p>
</div><p>In retail, young shoppers are still willing to spend almost impulsively on experiences and personal gratification. For instance, a well-designed retail store experience that appeals on social media and resonates with the Gen Z demographic can attract sizeable foot traffic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在零售方面，年輕消費者仍然願意幾乎衝動地花錢在體驗和個人滿足上。例如，一個設計良好的零售店體驗，如果在社交媒體上引起共鳴並吸引 Z 世代，可以吸引大量客流。</p>
</div><p>In the direct-to-consumer personal care segment, we have observed companies with formidable founders who were able to identify opportunities in a highly competitive sea of offerings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在直銷個人護理領域，我們觀察到一些具有強大創始人的公司能夠在競爭激烈的產品海洋中識別機會。</p>
</div><p>For example, when home-grown brands were competing heavily in cosmetics, several companies identified sunscreen as a growing sub-segment. They profited from their first-mover advantage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，當本土品牌在化妝品領域激烈競爭時，幾家公司識別出防曬霜作為一個增長的子領域。他們從第一 mover 的優勢中獲利。</p>
</div><p>Moreover, the supply-chain infrastructure players supporting these local brands also benefit and grow in tandem.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，支持這些本土品牌的供應鏈基礎設施參與者也受益並共同成長。</p>
</div><p>As the middle class continues to come under pressure, financial solutions with stronger inherent risk management – such as secured lending – have become a healthier go-to solution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着中產階級繼續承受壓力，具有更強內在風險管理的金融解決方案——如擔保貸款——已成為更健康的選擇。</p>
</div><p>In the past, most fintech startups focused on unsecured lending and relied on steep rates to offset non-performing loans and provisioned losses from fraud.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>過去，大多數金融科技初創企業專注於無擔保貸款，並依賴高利率來抵消不良貸款和因欺詐造成的損失。</p>
</div><p>Now, we are seeing a return to more responsible lending practices, such as pawnshops and other forms of secured lending, as well as a closer collaboration with the banking ecosystem.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在，我們看到更負責任的貸款實踐的迴歸，如典當行和其他形式的擔保貸款，以及與銀行生態系統的更緊密合作。</p>
</div><p>This allows for a more solid balance sheet, and minimises events of non-performance or fraud.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這使得資產負債表更加穩健，減少了不良表現或欺詐事件的發生。</p>
</div><h2>Underserved healthcare sector</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>服務不足的醫療保健領域</h2>
</div><p>As Indonesia’s population continues to grow and age, its underserved healthcare sector – where the hospital bed-to-population ratio remains well below that of regional peers – offers a trove of growth investment opportunities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着印度尼西亞人口的持續增長和老齡化，其服務不足的醫療保健領域——醫院牀位與人口比例遠低於區域同行——提供了大量的增長投資機會。</p>
</div><p>There is a proliferation of smaller footprint providers in the form of clinics which specialise in bespoke propositions – such as female health and maternity, or aesthetic and cosmetic care – that are gaining institutional investor attention. The clinic format allows for a lower capital load and wider coverage offering.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以診所形式出現的小型提供者數量激增，專注於定製化服務——如女性健康和產科，或美容和整形護理——正在吸引機構投資者的關注。診所模式允許更低的資本負擔和更廣泛的覆蓋。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, there is ample opportunity in the modernisation and digitalisation of underperforming hospitals, to capture the growing need for healthcare services outside major metropolitan areas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，現代化和數字化表現不佳的醫院有着充足的機會，以滿足主要大都市地區之外日益增長的醫療服務需求。</p>
</div><p>This rides on the tailwind of Indonesia’s healthcare reform and universal health coverage system.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這得益於印度尼西亞的醫療改革和全民健康覆蓋體系的推動。</p>
</div><p>For investors who can expand their mandate even more, investment opportunities adjacent to the natural resource sectors – such as electric vehicles, batteries and alternative energy – could also be explored.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於能夠進一步擴展投資範圍的投資者來説，天然資源領域相鄰的投資機會——如電動車、電池和替代能源——也可以進行探索。</p>
</div><h2>Returning to the bull cycle</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>迴歸牛市週期</h2>
</div><p>Despite the challenges, what is occurring in Indonesia is cyclical. One may ask: How do we return to the bull cycle of old?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管面臨挑戰，印度尼西亞正在經歷的事情是週期性的。人們可能會問：我們如何回到過去的牛市週期？</p>
</div><p>I believe there are three core factors that need to be in place to head in that direction and restore investor confidence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我相信有三個核心因素需要具備，以朝着這個方向發展並恢復投資者信心。</p>
</div><p>The first is a strong and practical catalyst – not unlike what we saw during the mobile revolution, which became the foundation for e-commerce and application platform disruption almost a decade ago. Perhaps we are yet to see AI as a driving force here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第一個是強大且切實可行的催化劑——這與我們在移動革命期間看到的情況相似，移動革命成為了電子商務和應用平台顛覆的基礎，幾乎是在十年前。也許我們尚未看到人工智能作為這裏的驅動力。</p>
</div><p>Second, early-stage investors must continue supporting seed-level businesses to encourage innovation and would-be entrepreneurs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第二，早期投資者必須繼續支持種子級企業，以鼓勵創新和潛在的企業家。</p>
</div><p>This will create a virtuous circle whereby more individuals are willing to take business risks and attract more investment money, which will further attract more entrepreneurs, and so on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這將創造一個良性循環，使更多個人願意承擔商業風險並吸引更多投資資金，從而進一步吸引更多企業家，依此類推。</p>
</div><p>Third, the government needs to identify a core sector and anchor it to kindle the spark of innovation. Then, private and institutional investors can stoke the flames.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第三，政府需要識別一個核心行業並將其作為支柱，以激發創新的火花。然後，私人和機構投資者可以助燃這一火焰。</p>
</div><p>Neighbouring countries are already doing this, in the context of semiconductor supply chain and manufacturing infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鄰國已經在半導體供應鏈和製造基礎設施的背景下這樣做了。</p>
</div><p>Indonesia is undeniably going through difficult times. But even in this bear cycle, there are pockets of investment opportunities to be discovered, before confidence is fully restored and the next bull cycle starts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度尼西亞無疑正經歷困難時期。但即使在這個熊市週期中，仍然有投資機會的領域等待被發現，在信心完全恢復和下一個牛市週期開始之前。</p>
</div><p><strong>The writer is partner at Vertex Ventures South-east Asia and India</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>作者是 Vertex Ventures 東南亞和印度的合夥人</strong></p>
</div>

超越低谷：風險投資公司如何投資於印度尼西亞的韌性