<p>大型科技股、軟件股票與 <strong>比特幣</strong> (CRYPTO: BTC) 之間的緊密關聯，曾在 2024 年和 2025 年推動了巨大的收益，如今已轉變為同步的疲軟，一位華爾街技術分析師表示，信息很簡單：這始終是 “一個交易”。</p>
<p>在週二舉行的客户網絡研討會上，22V Research 分析師 John Roque 展示了圖表，顯示過去兩年 “七大奇蹟” 公司、<strong>iShares 擴展科技 - 軟件行業 ETF</strong> (NYSE: IGV) 和比特幣之間的緊密跟蹤關係。</p>
<p>“在我看來，信息相當明確。這都是一個交易，” Roque 説。</p>
<p>“在 2024 年和 2025 年，這都是一個交易，然後在 2025 年秋季的共同峯值中上漲，之後它們都一直疲軟，當然，比特幣和 IGV 的疲軟程度更大。”</p>
<p><strong>iShares 擴展科技 - 軟件行業 ETF IG</strong> V 最近交易價格接近 80 美元，遠低於其 40 周移動平均線約 106 美元。</p>
<p>Roque 表示，該 ETF 的技術評分為零，如果超賣情況未能引發反彈，風險將向 60 美元傾斜。</p>
<p><strong>圖表：七大奇蹟（藍線）、軟件股票 IGV（白線）和比特幣（橙線）</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/17105824/image-351-1024x572.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/17105824/image-351-1024x572.png"/></p>
<h2>比特幣的$60,000 突破：接下來會怎樣？</h2>
<p>比特幣最近達到了 Roque 的$60,000 下行目標後開始穩定。但他並不相信這個底部會保持住。</p>
<p>“我的目標 60,000 在 2 月 6 日達成，” Roque 説。“我不會感到驚訝，我實際上在猜測這將突破 60,000，40,000 將是下一個目標。”</p>
<p>他將當前的形勢置於歷史背景中。</p>
<p>自 2017 年以來，比特幣的主要週期性底部出現在資產交易價格分別低於其 200 日移動平均線 52%、44% 和 55% 時。截至 2 月中旬，比特幣的價格大約低於該長期趨勢線 32%。</p>
<p>這一差距表明——至少從歷史標準來看——下跌可能尚未結束。</p>
<p>“它可以反彈，但我是賣方，” Roque 説，並補充道比特幣圖表類似於教科書式的頭肩頂形態。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/17115157/image-357-1024x572.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/17115157/image-357-1024x572.png"/></p>
<h2>比特幣熊市可能有多深？</h2>
<p>自 2011 年以來，比特幣經歷了五次主要的熊市，回撤幅度分別為 82%、86%、84%、72% 和 75%。平均下降幅度約為 80%。最小的下跌幅度為 72%。</p>
<p>如果從最近的高點應用 72% 的回撤，意味着潛在的下行目標接近$35,000。</p>
<p>Roque 關注$40,000 作為低於$60,000 的更實際水平——但無論如何，歷史模板表明如果週期以類似方式進行，仍有進一步疲軟的空間。</p>
<p>看跌的技術形勢延伸至 <strong>Strategy Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: MSTR)，前身為 MicroStrategy，已成為比特幣的槓桿代理。</p>
<p>Roque 對該股票的初始下行目標為$100。它在盤中最低觸及$104 後反彈。</p>
<p>“我最初的下行目標是 100，” 他説。“我認為這個數字將被證明過於樂觀。如果它跌到 20，我不會感到驚訝。”</p>
<p>他承認$20 可能聽起來極端，但表示該股票相對於標準普爾 500 指數的相對錶現已急劇轉為負面。</p>
<p>上一次 Strategy 顯示出類似的相對疲軟時，該股票最終遭遇了 90% 的絕對下跌。</p>
<p>根據公司數據，Strategy 持有超過 717,000 個比特幣，平均購買價格為$76,000，總成本約為 545 億美元。</p>
<p>在最近接近$68,500 的價格下，這些持有的價值剛好低於 490 億美元——意味着未實現損失約為 55 億美元。</p>
<p>如果比特幣果斷跌破$60,000 並向$40,000 趨勢，Strategy 的資產負債表和股權估值的壓力可能會迅速加劇。</p>
<p><em>照片：Shutterstock</em></p>

MARA

<p>一位華爾街分析師指出，巨頭科技、軟件股票與比特幣之間存在強烈的相關性，這種相關性已從 2024-2025 年的上漲轉變為同步疲軟。iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF（IGV）目前的交易價格低於其移動平均線，技術評分為零。比特幣最近達到了 60,000 美元的下行目標，但預計將進一步下跌至 40,000 美元。分析師還警告，由於其比特幣持有，Strategy Inc.（前身為 MicroStrategy）可能面臨重大損失，如果比特幣的價值繼續下跌，將承受壓力</p>

<p>A tight correlation between mega-cap tech, software stocks and <strong>Bitcoin</strong> (CRYPTO: BTC) that fueled massive gains in 2024 and 2025 has now flipped into synchronized weakness, and one Wall Street technical analyst says the message is simple: it was always &#34;one trade.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大型科技股、軟件股票與 <strong>比特幣</strong> (CRYPTO: BTC) 之間的緊密關聯，曾在 2024 年和 2025 年推動了巨大的收益，如今已轉變為同步的疲軟，一位華爾街技術分析師表示，信息很簡單：這始終是 “一個交易”。</p>
</div><p>In a client webinar hosted on Tuesday, 22V Research analyst John Roque laid out charts showing the Magnificent Seven, the <strong>iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF</strong> (NYSE: IGV), and Bitcoin tracking one another closely over the past two years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在週二舉行的客户網絡研討會上，22V Research 分析師 John Roque 展示了圖表，顯示過去兩年 “七大奇蹟” 公司、<strong>iShares 擴展科技 - 軟件行業 ETF</strong> (NYSE: IGV) 和比特幣之間的緊密跟蹤關係。</p>
</div><p>&#34;It seems to me that the message is fairly clear. It's all one trade,&#34; Roque said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在我看來，信息相當明確。這都是一個交易，” Roque 説。</p>
</div><p>&#34;It was all one trade in 2024 and 2025, and then as it rallied into the coincident peaks in the autumn of 2025, and they've all been weak since, but of course, Bitcoin and the IGV have been weaker.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在 2024 年和 2025 年，這都是一個交易，然後在 2025 年秋季的共同峯值中上漲，之後它們都一直疲軟，當然，比特幣和 IGV 的疲軟程度更大。”</p>
</div><p>The <strong>iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF IG</strong> V recently traded near $80, well below its 40-week moving average around $106.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>iShares 擴展科技 - 軟件行業 ETF IG</strong> V 最近交易價格接近 80 美元，遠低於其 40 周移動平均線約 106 美元。</p>
</div><p>Roque said the ETF's technical score is zero, with risk toward $60 if oversold conditions fail to spark a bounce.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Roque 表示，該 ETF 的技術評分為零，如果超賣情況未能引發反彈，風險將向 60 美元傾斜。</p>
</div><p><strong>Chart: Magnificent Seven (Blue Line), Software Stocks IGV (White) and Bitcoin (Orange)</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>圖表：七大奇蹟（藍線）、軟件股票 IGV（白線）和比特幣（橙線）</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/17105824/image-351-1024x572.png" alt="" original-src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/17105824/image-351-1024x572.png"/></p>
<h2>Bitcoin's $60,000 Break: What's Next?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>比特幣的$60,000 突破：接下來會怎樣？</h2>
</div><p>Bitcoin recently hit Roque's $60,000 downside target before stabilizing. But he's not convinced the floor will hold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特幣最近達到了 Roque 的$60,000 下行目標後開始穩定。但他並不相信這個底部會保持住。</p>
</div><p>&#34;My target of 60,000 was hit on February 6th,&#34; Roque said. &#34;It would not surprise me, and I actually am guessing that this is going to break $60,000, and 40,000 would be the next target.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我的目標 60,000 在 2 月 6 日達成，” Roque 説。“我不會感到驚訝，我實際上在猜測這將突破 60,000，40,000 將是下一個目標。”</p>
</div><p>He frames the current setup in historical context.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他將當前的形勢置於歷史背景中。</p>
</div><p>Since 2017, Bitcoin's major cyclical bottoms occurred when the asset traded 52%, 44% and 55% below its 200-day moving average. As of mid-February, Bitcoin was roughly 32% below that long-term trendline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2017 年以來，比特幣的主要週期性底部出現在資產交易價格分別低於其 200 日移動平均線 52%、44% 和 55% 時。截至 2 月中旬，比特幣的價格大約低於該長期趨勢線 32%。</p>
</div><p>That gap suggests — at least by historical standards — that the drawdown may not yet be complete.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一差距表明——至少從歷史標準來看——下跌可能尚未結束。</p>
</div><p>&#34;It can bounce, but I'm a seller,&#34; Roque said, adding that the Bitcoin chart resembles a textbook head-and-shoulders top.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“它可以反彈，但我是賣方，” Roque 説，並補充道比特幣圖表類似於教科書式的頭肩頂形態。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/17115157/image-357-1024x572.png" alt="" original-src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/17115157/image-357-1024x572.png"/></p>
<h2>How Deep Could A Bitcoin Bear Market Go?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>比特幣熊市可能有多深？</h2>
</div><p>Bitcoin has suffered five major bear markets since 2011, with drawdowns of 82%, 86%, 84%, 72% and 75%. The average decline was roughly 80%. The smallest drop was 72%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2011 年以來，比特幣經歷了五次主要的熊市，回撤幅度分別為 82%、86%、84%、72% 和 75%。平均下降幅度約為 80%。最小的下跌幅度為 72%。</p>
</div><p>Applying a 72% decline from the most recent peak implies a potential downside near $35,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果從最近的高點應用 72% 的回撤，意味着潛在的下行目標接近$35,000。</p>
</div><p>Roque is focused on $40,000 as a more practical level below $60,000 — but either way, the historical template suggests room for further weakness if the cycle plays out in similar fashion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Roque 關注$40,000 作為低於$60,000 的更實際水平——但無論如何，歷史模板表明如果週期以類似方式進行，仍有進一步疲軟的空間。</p>
</div><p>The bearish technical setup extends to <strong>Strategy Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: MSTR), formerly MicroStrategy, which has become a leveraged proxy for Bitcoin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>看跌的技術形勢延伸至 <strong>Strategy Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: MSTR)，前身為 MicroStrategy，已成為比特幣的槓桿代理。</p>
</div><p>Roque's initial downside target for the stock was $100. It reached an intraday low of $104 before bouncing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Roque 對該股票的初始下行目標為$100。它在盤中最低觸及$104 後反彈。</p>
</div><p>&#34;My initial downside target was 100,&#34; he said. &#34;I think this figure is going to prove optimistic. It would not surprise me if this got to 20.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我最初的下行目標是 100，” 他説。“我認為這個數字將被證明過於樂觀。如果它跌到 20，我不會感到驚訝。”</p>
</div><p>He acknowledged that $20 may sound extreme, but said the stock's relative performance versus the S&amp;P 500 has turned sharply negative.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他承認$20 可能聽起來極端，但表示該股票相對於標準普爾 500 指數的相對錶現已急劇轉為負面。</p>
</div><p>The last time Strategy showed similar relative weakness, the stock ultimately suffered a 90% absolute decline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上一次 Strategy 顯示出類似的相對疲軟時，該股票最終遭遇了 90% 的絕對下跌。</p>
</div><p>According to the company, Strategy holds more than 717,000 Bitcoins at an average purchase price of $76,000, representing roughly $54.5 billion in total cost.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據公司數據，Strategy 持有超過 717,000 個比特幣，平均購買價格為$76,000，總成本約為 545 億美元。</p>
</div><p>At recent prices near $68,500, those holdings are worth just under $49 billion — implying an unrealized loss of approximately $5.5 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在最近接近$68,500 的價格下，這些持有的價值剛好低於 490 億美元——意味着未實現損失約為 55 億美元。</p>
</div><p>If Bitcoin decisively breaks below $60,000 and trends toward $40,000, the pressure on Strategy's balance sheet — and equity valuation — could intensify quickly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果比特幣果斷跌破$60,000 並向$40,000 趨勢，Strategy 的資產負債表和股權估值的壓力可能會迅速加劇。</p>
</div><p><em>Photo: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>照片：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

Magnificent 7, Bitcoin And Software: Why It's 'All One Trade,' Analyst Says

- 技術分析師 John Roque 指出大型科技股、軟件股和比特幣當前表現一致疲弱。  
- 比特幣已觸及 $60,000 目標，並可能下探至 $40,000。  
- 投資者需警惕比特幣可能面臨的熊市風險。

benzinga_article

Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF

Marathon Digital

Coinbase

谷歌-A

Microstrategy Inc Pref Shares STRC 9.0 Perp

谷歌-C

亞馬遜

Hut 8 Mining

MicroStrategy Pref Shares MSTR 8.0 Perp

Strategy

MicroStrategy Pref Shares MSTR 10.0 Perp

微軟

Bitfarms Canada

特斯拉

Grayscale Bitcoin Adopters ETF

iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF

Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund - ETF

MSTR 期權收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

T-Rex 2X Long Microsoft Daily Target ETF

Franklin Bitcoin ETF

2 倍做多 MSFT ETF - GraniteShares

ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF

標普軟件與服務 ETF - SPDR

Defiance Leveraged Long + Inc MSTR ETF

2 倍做多 MSTR ETF - Defiance

Leverage Shares 2x Cpd Acclrtd MSTRMnETF

2 倍做空 MSTR ETF - Defiance

ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF

Bitwise Bitcoin ETF

CoinShares Bitcoin ETF

GraniteShares 2x Long MSTR Daily ETF

WisdomTree Bitcoin Fund

Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF

高科技指數 ETF - SPDR

2 倍做空 MSTR ETF - T-Rex

Roundhill MSTR WeeklyPay ETF

北美科技軟件股指數 ETF - iShares

微軟每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

VanEck Bitcoin ETF

2 倍做多 MSTR ETF - T-Rex

BITFARMS LTD

壯麗七大、比特幣和軟件：分析師解釋為何這被視為 “一筆交易”