<p>許多 <strong>Nvidia</strong>( NVDA +1.12%) 投資者可能在日曆上圈出了 2026 年 2 月 25 日。這是這家大型芯片製造商計劃公佈其 2025 財年第四季度業績的日期。Nvidia 計劃在市場收盤後發佈業績，並在隨後不久與分析師舉行季度電話會議。</p>
<p>預測 Nvidia 在第四季度更新後股價會飆升是很容易的。公司的業績幾乎肯定會非常出色，反映出其蓬勃發展的基礎業務。然而，我有一個逆向的看法。我預測在 2 月 25 日之後，這隻 GPU 股票 將會下跌。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NTY2NzgvbnZpZGlhLWhlYWRxdWFydGVycy1vdXRzaWRlLXdpdGgtYmxhY2stbnZpZGlhLXNpZ24td2l0aC1udmlkaWEtbG9nby5qcGcmdz0zODQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="2000" height="1200" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NTY2NzgvbnZpZGlhLWhlYWRxdWFydGVycy1vdXRzaWRlLXdpdGgtYmxhY2stbnZpZGlhLXNpZ24td2l0aC1udmlkaWEtbG9nby5qcGcmdz0zODQw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Nvidia。</p>
<h2>高期望的問題</h2>
<p>根據 <strong>S&amp;P Global</strong>( SPGI +0.17%) 的數據，華爾街對 Nvidia 第四季度的收入共識預期為 656 億美元。平均調整後的每股收益預期為 1.52 美元。這兩個預期都反映出大約 71% 的同比增長。</p>
<p>我的預測是否假設 Nvidia 將無法滿足這些預期？實際上並不是。Nvidia 在超越華爾街預期方面有着出色的記錄，在過去四個季度中每次都交出了超出預期的業績。我認為公司會再次做到這一點。</p>
<p>然而，超越分析師預期並不總是意味着隨之而來的股價上漲。看看下面的圖表。圖表中的每個 &#34;E&#34; 表示 Nvidia 報告收益的時間。正如我剛才提到的，公司在每次收益報告中都超出了預期。但請注意，Nvidia 的股價在此後的表現。股價在四個季度更新中的三個之後下跌。</p>
<p></p>
<p>NVDA 數據由 YCharts 提供</p>
<p>這些收益後下跌的原因是什麼？有時，華爾街的 &#34;耳語數字 &#34;高於官方的收入和收益預期。另一個因素是，投資者往往已經將對收益結果的良好預期計入價格，如果季度更新中有任何不完美的跡象，他們就會感到緊張。</p>
<p>在 Nvidia 的第四季度收益電話會議中，可能會讓投資者感到不安的一個潛在問題是內存短缺。如果 Nvidia 的管理層表示內存供應可能會稍微影響今年晚些時候的 GPU 銷售，我們可能會看到股價下跌。</p>
<h2>對 AI 投資回報的懷疑</h2>
<p>Nvidia 在其第四季度更新中還面臨另一個挑戰。一些分析師和投資者對 AI 支出的投資回報 (ROI) 表示懷疑。</p>
<p>微軟( MSFT 1.11%) 在其最近的季度業績中輕鬆超越了收入和收益預期。但其股價在此後暴跌。導致拋售的一個因素是公司在 AI 基礎設施上的支出增加。</p>
<p><strong>Alphabet</strong>( GOOG 1.05%)( GOOGL 1.24%) 的情況也類似。谷歌母公司在 2026 年 2 月 4 日發佈了出色的第四季度業績。然而，第二天股價適度下跌。下跌的主要原因是對 Alphabet 在 AI 相關資本支出上大幅增加的擔憂。許多投資者還對 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>( AMZN +1.19%) 今年超過 2000 億美元的鉅額資本支出預測感到擔憂。</p>
<p>微軟、Alphabet 和亞馬遜不僅是頂級 AI 股票，它們也是 Nvidia 的主要客户。我懷疑這種對 AI 投資回報的懷疑環境將使 Nvidia 在其第四季度更新中真正讓投資者感到驚豔變得困難。</p>
<p>展開</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL05WREEucG5nJnc9MTI4?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="Nvidia 股票報價" width="80" height="80" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL05WREEucG5nJnc9MTI4"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: NVDA</h2>
<p>Nvidia</p>
<p>今日變動</p>
<p>(1.12%) $2.05</p>
<p>當前價格</p>
<p>$184.86</p>
<h3>關鍵數據點</h3>
<p>市值</p>
<p>$4.5T</p>
<p>日內區間</p>
<p>$179.18 - $187.15</p>
<p>52 周區間</p>
<p>$86.62 - $212.19</p>
<p>成交量</p>
<p>4.5M</p>
<p>平均成交量</p>
<p>180M</p>
<p>毛利率</p>
<p>70.05%</p>
<p>股息收益率</p>
<p>0.02%</p>
<h2>預測的下跌將是一個機會</h2>
<p>當然，我預測 Nvidia 的股價將在 2 月 25 日之後下跌可能是錯誤的。如果有任何公司能夠在困難的環境中表現出色，那就是 Nvidia。</p>
<p>不過，我認為長期投資者應該希望我的預測成真。Nvidia 股價的任何回調在我看來都是一個機會。我完全期待公司在今年晚些時候的 Rubin ramp 將會取得巨大的成功。我相信 AI 的投資回報將隨着時間的推移而得到明確的證明。因此，短期的下跌將為在低位買入這隻股票提供絕佳機會。</p>

英偉達

半導體 ETF - VanEck Vectors

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

<p>英偉達計劃於 2026 年 2 月 25 日公佈其 2025 財年第四季度業績，市場對其收入和盈利抱有很高的期望。儘管預計表現強勁，但一種對立觀點認為，由於潛在的內存短缺和對人工智能投資回報率的懷疑，股價在公告後可能會下跌。歷史趨勢顯示，英偉達的股價在超出預期後往往會下跌。短期內的下跌可能為長期投資者提供買入機會，因為預計公司在其人工智能項目中將取得成功</p>

<p>Many <strong>Nvidia</strong>( NVDA +1.12%) investors have probably circled Feb. 25, 2026, on their calendars. That's the date the giant chipmaker is scheduled to announce its fiscal 2025 fourth-quarter results. Nvidia plans to release its results following the market close and hold its quarterly conference call with analysts shortly afterward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>許多 <strong>Nvidia</strong>( NVDA +1.12%) 投資者可能在日曆上圈出了 2026 年 2 月 25 日。這是這家大型芯片製造商計劃公佈其 2025 財年第四季度業績的日期。Nvidia 計劃在市場收盤後發佈業績，並在隨後不久與分析師舉行季度電話會議。</p>
</div><p>It's easy to predict that Nvidia's share price will surge after its Q4 update. The company's results will almost certainly be fantastic and reflect a booming underlying business. However, I have a contrarian take. I predict that the GPU stock will drop after Feb. 25.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>預測 Nvidia 在第四季度更新後股價會飆升是很容易的。公司的業績幾乎肯定會非常出色，反映出其蓬勃發展的基礎業務。然而，我有一個逆向的看法。我預測在 2 月 25 日之後，這隻 GPU 股票 將會下跌。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NTY2NzgvbnZpZGlhLWhlYWRxdWFydGVycy1vdXRzaWRlLXdpdGgtYmxhY2stbnZpZGlhLXNpZ24td2l0aC1udmlkaWEtbG9nby5qcGcmdz0zODQw" alt="Nvidia sign in front of a building." original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F856678%2Fnvidia-headquarters-outside-with-black-nvidia-sign-with-nvidia-logo.jpg&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Nvidia。</p>
</div><h2>A high-expectations problem</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>高期望的問題</h2>
</div><p>The consensus Wall Street Q4 revenue estimate for Nvidia is $65.6 billion, according to <strong>S&amp;P Global</strong>( SPGI +0.17%). The average Q4 adjusted earnings estimate is $1.52 per share. Both estimates reflect year-over-year growth of roughly 71%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 <strong>S&amp;P Global</strong>( SPGI +0.17%) 的數據，華爾街對 Nvidia 第四季度的收入共識預期為 656 億美元。平均調整後的每股收益預期為 1.52 美元。這兩個預期都反映出大約 71% 的同比增長。</p>
</div><p>Does my prediction assume that Nvidia will fail to meet these estimates? Actually, no. Nvidia has an excellent track record of beating Wall Street's numbers, delivering better-than-expected results in each of the last four quarters. I think the company will do it again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我的預測是否假設 Nvidia 將無法滿足這些預期？實際上並不是。Nvidia 在超越華爾街預期方面有着出色的記錄，在過去四個季度中每次都交出了超出預期的業績。我認為公司會再次做到這一點。</p>
</div><p>However, beating analysts' estimates doesn't always translate to a subsequent stock gain. Look at the chart below. Each of the &#34;Es&#34; on the chart shows when Nvidia reported earnings. As I just mentioned, the company exceeded expectations in each earnings report. But notice what happened with Nvidia's share price afterward. The stock fell following three of the four quarterly updates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，超越分析師預期並不總是意味着隨之而來的股價上漲。看看下面的圖表。圖表中的每個 &#34;E&#34; 表示 Nvidia 報告收益的時間。正如我剛才提到的，公司在每次收益報告中都超出了預期。但請注意，Nvidia 的股價在此後的表現。股價在四個季度更新中的三個之後下跌。</p>
</div><p></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p></p>
</div><p>NVDA data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 數據由 YCharts 提供</p>
</div><p>What's behind those post-earnings declines? Sometimes, Wall Street has &#34;whisper numbers&#34; that are higher than the official revenue and earnings estimates. Another factor is that investors have often already priced in great expectations for earnings results and get nervous if there's even a hint of anything less than perfect in the quarterly update.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些收益後下跌的原因是什麼？有時，華爾街的 &#34;耳語數字 &#34;高於官方的收入和收益預期。另一個因素是，投資者往往已經將對收益結果的良好預期計入價格，如果季度更新中有任何不完美的跡象，他們就會感到緊張。</p>
</div><p>One potential issue that could rattle investors during Nvidia's Q4 earnings call is the memory shortage. If Nvidia's management indicates that memory availability could even slightly affect GPU sales later this year, we could see the stock tumble.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Nvidia 的第四季度收益電話會議中，可能會讓投資者感到不安的一個潛在問題是內存短缺。如果 Nvidia 的管理層表示內存供應可能會稍微影響今年晚些時候的 GPU 銷售，我們可能會看到股價下跌。</p>
</div><h2>AI ROI skepticism</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>對 AI 投資回報的懷疑</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia also faces another challenge heading into its Q4 update. Some analysts and investors are skeptical of the return on investment (ROI) that AI spending is delivering.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 在其第四季度更新中還面臨另一個挑戰。一些分析師和投資者對 AI 支出的投資回報 (ROI) 表示懷疑。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft( MSFT 1.11%) handily beat revenue and earnings estimates in its most recent quarterly results. But its stock plunged afterward. One factor behind the sell-off was the company's increased spending on AI infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微軟( MSFT 1.11%) 在其最近的季度業績中輕鬆超越了收入和收益預期。但其股價在此後暴跌。導致拋售的一個因素是公司在 AI 基礎設施上的支出增加。</p>
</div><p>It was a similar story with <strong>Alphabet</strong>( GOOG 1.05%)( GOOGL 1.24%). Google's parent delivered terrific Q4 results on Feb. 4, 2026. However, the stock fell moderately the next day. The decline was primarily due to concerns about Alphabet's significant increase in AI-related capital expenditures. Many investors also fretted about <strong>Amazon</strong>'s ( AMZN +1.19%) massive capex forecast of over $200 billion for this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Alphabet</strong>( GOOG 1.05%)( GOOGL 1.24%) 的情況也類似。谷歌母公司在 2026 年 2 月 4 日發佈了出色的第四季度業績。然而，第二天股價適度下跌。下跌的主要原因是對 Alphabet 在 AI 相關資本支出上大幅增加的擔憂。許多投資者還對 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>( AMZN +1.19%) 今年超過 2000 億美元的鉅額資本支出預測感到擔憂。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon aren't just top AI stocks. They're also major customers of Nvidia. I suspect that this environment of AI ROI skepticism will make it difficult for Nvidia to truly wow investors in its Q4 update.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微軟、Alphabet 和亞馬遜不僅是頂級 AI 股票，它們也是 Nvidia 的主要客户。我懷疑這種對 AI 投資回報的懷疑環境將使 Nvidia 在其第四季度更新中真正讓投資者感到驚豔變得困難。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展開</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL05WREEucG5nJnc9MTI4" alt="Nvidia Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FNVDA.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: NVDA</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NASDAQ: NVDA</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日變動</p>
</div><p>(1.12%) $2.05</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(1.12%) $2.05</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當前價格</p>
</div><p>$184.86</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$184.86</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>關鍵數據點</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$4.5T</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$4.5T</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日內區間</p>
</div><p>$179.18 - $187.15</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$179.18 - $187.15</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周區間</p>
</div><p>$86.62 - $212.19</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$86.62 - $212.19</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>4.5M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>4.5M</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>180M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>180M</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>70.05%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>70.05%</p>
</div><p>Dividend Yield</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股息收益率</p>
</div><p>0.02%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>0.02%</p>
</div><h2>A predicted dip that will be a gift</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>預測的下跌將是一個機會</h2>
</div><p>Granted, my prediction that Nvidia's stock will drop after Feb. 25 could be wrong. If any company can knock the ball out of the park even in a challenging climate, it's Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當然，我預測 Nvidia 的股價將在 2 月 25 日之後下跌可能是錯誤的。如果有任何公司能夠在困難的環境中表現出色，那就是 Nvidia。</p>
</div><p>I think that long-term investors should want my prediction to come true, though. Any pullback in Nvidia's share price would be a gift, in my opinion. I fully expect that the company's Rubin ramp later this year will be a smashing success. I believe that the ROI for AI will be clearly demonstrated over time. A short-term drop would therefore present an excellent opportunity to buy this stock on the dip.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，我認為長期投資者應該希望我的預測成真。Nvidia 股價的任何回調在我看來都是一個機會。我完全期待公司在今年晚些時候的 Rubin ramp 將會取得巨大的成功。我相信 AI 的投資回報將隨着時間的推移而得到明確的證明。因此，短期的下跌將為在低位買入這隻股票提供絕佳機會。</p>
</div>

Prediction: Nvidia Stock Will Drop After Feb. 25

- Nvidia 將於 2026 年 2 月 25 日公佈 2025 財年第四季度業績。  
- 華爾街普遍預計其 Q4 收入為 656 億美元，年增長約 71%。  
- 儘管業績可能超預期，但股價可能因市場期望和供應問題下跌。

預測：NVIDIA 的股票將在 2 月 25 日之後下跌