<p>如果街上有兩個陌生人打架，你會加入嗎？</p>
<p>這就是交易者在特定股票或行業出現劇烈波動時會考慮的類比。目前，軟件股票正受到重創，市場擔心人工智能會擾亂該行業。</p>
<p>除非你已經持有相關頭寸，否則沒有必要參與其中。是的，可能會有機會，但一旦成為戰場，波動性會變得非常劇烈，情況會超出預期。如果你想參與，頭寸應該小且靈活。</p>
<p>在我看來，除非你對公司、行業非常熟悉，並且對宏觀經濟有清晰的看法，否則很難在戰場股票中找到信心。這種情況極為罕見，時間線通常比你想象的要長。一旦一隻股票成為戰場，煙霧散去需要很長時間。</p>
<p>我能想到一個例子，就是在油價跌至負值後的幾個月。立即跳入市場太困難，因為油價在新冠疫情頭條、經濟擔憂和需求不確定性下經常波動 20%。對我來説，真正的買入信號直到 2020 年秋季才出現，那時顯然新冠不會摧毀世界，而油價仍在 20 美元左右。</p>
<p>另一方面，我能想到很多次選擇觀望是明智的做法。想想那些 meme 股票或受到不確定性影響的行業。一個例子是硅谷銀行倒閉後的銀行業。許多地區性銀行遭受重創，分析師、看漲和看跌者都在爭論誰在承擔損失。銀行業本身就不透明，管理層不可信，因此很難知道他們是否安全。</p>
<p>最終，大多數銀行是安全的，股價大幅反彈。錯過這樣的機會自然會讓人感到遺憾，但在戰鬥的前線，這並不是一個容易的決定。</p>
<p>更重要的是，這並不是一個必要的決定。正如沃倫·巴菲特在 199 年所説，投資中沒有強制出局。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>&#34;投資的訣竅就是坐在那裏，觀看一個又一個投球，等待那個正好在你甜蜜點的球。如果有人在喊，‘揮杆，混蛋！’，就忽略他們。&#34;</p>
</blockquote>
<p>相反，機會通常在於深入研究那些不在頭條上的市場領域，慢慢積累對不同經濟體的知識，等待一個絕佳的投球。</p>
<p>標準普爾 500 指數的交易市盈率為 23 倍，遠高於 30 年平均的 17.1 倍。</p>
<p>目前市場上沒有很多明顯的機會，這就是為什麼越來越多的市場參與者開始關注國際股票。</p>

標普 500 指數

標普 500 指數股票型基金

3 倍做多標普 500 ETF - ProShares

<p>這篇文章建議不要參與波動性大的 “戰場” 股票，特別是在軟件行業，因為人們對人工智能顛覆的擔憂。文章強調在投資之前對公司及其行業的熟悉程度的重要性。歷史案例説明了在不確定市場中盲目投資的風險，例如在油價崩潰和硅谷銀行倒閉後的時期。相反，作者建議關注那些不太被公眾關注的投資機會，並進行深入研究，因為當前標普 500 的估值相較於歷史平均水平較高</p>

<p>If there was a fight on the street between two strangers would you join in?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果街上有兩個陌生人打架，你會加入嗎？</p>
</div><p>That's the analogy that traders would consider when there is high drama in a particular stock or sector. Right now it's software stocks as their being slammed lower on fears that AI will disrupt the sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這就是交易者在特定股票或行業出現劇烈波動時會考慮的類比。目前，軟件股票正受到重創，市場擔心人工智能會擾亂該行業。</p>
</div><p>Unless you already had a position, there is no need to get involved. Yes, there might be opportunities but once it's a battleground the volatility gets intense and things overshoot. If you want to wade it, positions should be small and nimble.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除非你已經持有相關頭寸，否則沒有必要參與其中。是的，可能會有機會，但一旦成為戰場，波動性會變得非常劇烈，情況會超出預期。如果你想參與，頭寸應該小且靈活。</p>
</div><p>To my way of thinking, it's impossible to find the conviction in a battleground stock unless you're intimately familiar with the company, the sector and have a solid view on the macro. That's exceedingly rare and timelines are usually longer than you think. Once a stock becomes a battleground, it takes a long time for the smoke to clear.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看來，除非你對公司、行業非常熟悉，並且對宏觀經濟有清晰的看法，否則很難在戰場股票中找到信心。這種情況極為罕見，時間線通常比你想象的要長。一旦一隻股票成為戰場，煙霧散去需要很長時間。</p>
</div><p>I can think of a time when it worked in the months after oil prices went negative. Jumping right in away was too tough as oil prices were moving 20% regularly on covid headlines, economic worries and uncertainty around demand. For me, the real buy signal wasn't until autumn 2020 when it was clear that covid wasn't going to destroy the world and oil was still in the $20s.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我能想到一個例子，就是在油價跌至負值後的幾個月。立即跳入市場太困難，因為油價在新冠疫情頭條、經濟擔憂和需求不確定性下經常波動 20%。對我來説，真正的買入信號直到 2020 年秋季才出現，那時顯然新冠不會摧毀世界，而油價仍在 20 美元左右。</p>
</div><p>On the other hand, I can think of an abundance of times when it was a wise course of action to sit out. Think of the meme stocks or sectors hit by uncertainty. One was banking in the aftermath of the Silicon Valley Bank collapse. A number of regional banks were getting wrecked and there were analysts, bulls and bears screaming about who was holding losses. Banking is naturally opaque and executives can't be trusted so it was impossible to know they were safe.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，我能想到很多次選擇觀望是明智的做法。想想那些 meme 股票或受到不確定性影響的行業。一個例子是硅谷銀行倒閉後的銀行業。許多地區性銀行遭受重創，分析師、看漲和看跌者都在爭論誰在承擔損失。銀行業本身就不透明，管理層不可信，因此很難知道他們是否安全。</p>
</div><p>Ultimately, most were and the share prices rebounded in a big way. It's natural to regret missing a move like that but in the trenches of the battle it's not an easy call.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最終，大多數銀行是安全的，股價大幅反彈。錯過這樣的機會自然會讓人感到遺憾，但在戰鬥的前線，這並不是一個容易的決定。</p>
</div><p>More importantly, it's not a necessary one. Like Warren Buffett said in 199, there are no called strikes in investing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更重要的是，這並不是一個必要的決定。正如沃倫·巴菲特在 199 年所説，投資中沒有強制出局。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>&#34;The trick in investing is just to sit there and watch pitch after pitch go by and wait for the one right in your sweet spot. And if people are yelling, 'Swing, you bum!', ignore them.&#34;</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>&#34;投資的訣竅就是坐在那裏，觀看一個又一個投球，等待那個正好在你甜蜜點的球。如果有人在喊，‘揮杆，混蛋！’，就忽略他們。&#34;</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>Instead, the opportunity is usually in researching deeper into the places in the market that aren't on the front pages, slowly developing knowledge of different economies and waiting for a great pitch.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，機會通常在於深入研究那些不在頭條上的市場領域，慢慢積累對不同經濟體的知識，等待一個絕佳的投球。</p>
</div><p>The S&amp;P 500 is trading at 23x forward earnings against the 30-year average of 17.1x.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>標準普爾 500 指數的交易市盈率為 23 倍，遠高於 30 年平均的 17.1 倍。</p>
</div><p>There aren't many fat pitches out there right now and that's why more and more market participants are looking at international equities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前市場上沒有很多明顯的機會，這就是為什麼越來越多的市場參與者開始關注國際股票。</p>
</div>

You don't need to wade into the battleground stocks

- 當前軟件股因 AI 擔憂而暴跌，交易者須謹慎參與。  
- 切勿盲目跟風，適當的小規模投資方為上策。  
- 目前國際股票吸引越來越多的市場參與者。

你不必涉足那些競爭激烈的股票市場